536 lines
35 KiB
HTML
536 lines
35 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
|
||
<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
|
||
<head>
|
||
<meta charset="UTF-8">
|
||
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
|
||
<title>铜产业 深度研究报告</title>
|
||
<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
|
||
<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.10.1/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
|
||
<script defer src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
|
||
<style>
|
||
@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Manrope:wght@300;400;500;700&display=swap');
|
||
|
||
body {
|
||
font-family: 'Manrope', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif;
|
||
background-color: #020010;
|
||
background-image:
|
||
radial-gradient(at 20% 20%, hsla(212, 80%, 30%, 0.15) 0px, transparent 50%),
|
||
radial-gradient(at 80% 20%, hsla(288, 80%, 40%, 0.15) 0px, transparent 50%),
|
||
radial-gradient(at 20% 80%, hsla(180, 80%, 40%, 0.15) 0px, transparent 50%),
|
||
radial-gradient(at 80% 80%, hsla(30, 80%, 50%, 0.15) 0px, transparent 50%);
|
||
color: #d1d5db; /* gray-300 */
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
.glass-card {
|
||
background: rgba(17, 24, 39, 0.4); /* gray-900 with alpha */
|
||
backdrop-filter: blur(24px);
|
||
-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(24px);
|
||
border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
|
||
transition: all 0.3s ease;
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
.glass-card:hover {
|
||
background: rgba(31, 41, 55, 0.5); /* gray-800 with alpha */
|
||
border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.2);
|
||
transform: translateY(-4px);
|
||
box-shadow: 0 0 30px rgba(7, 89, 133, 0.3);
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
.bento-grid {
|
||
display: grid;
|
||
gap: 1.5rem;
|
||
grid-template-columns: repeat(1, minmax(0, 1fr));
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
@media (min-width: 1024px) {
|
||
.bento-grid {
|
||
grid-template-columns: repeat(6, minmax(0, 1fr));
|
||
}
|
||
.grid-col-span-6 { grid-column: span 6 / span 6; }
|
||
.grid-col-span-4 { grid-column: span 4 / span 4; }
|
||
.grid-col-span-3 { grid-column: span 3 / span 3; }
|
||
.grid-col-span-2 { grid-column: span 2 / span 2; }
|
||
.grid-row-span-2 { grid-row: span 2 / span 2; }
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
.section-title {
|
||
font-size: 2.25rem;
|
||
font-weight: 700;
|
||
letter-spacing: -0.025em;
|
||
background: linear-gradient(90deg, #a5b4fc, #3b82f6, #60a5fa);
|
||
-webkit-background-clip: text;
|
||
-webkit-text-fill-color: transparent;
|
||
text-shadow: 0 0 15px rgba(99, 102, 241, 0.3);
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
.glow-border {
|
||
position: relative;
|
||
}
|
||
.glow-border::before {
|
||
content: '';
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
top: 0; right: 0; bottom: 0; left: 0;
|
||
z-index: -1;
|
||
margin: -1px;
|
||
border-radius: inherit;
|
||
background: linear-gradient(to right, #3b82f6, #a855f7);
|
||
filter: blur(8px);
|
||
opacity: 0;
|
||
transition: opacity 0.3s ease-in-out;
|
||
}
|
||
.glass-card:hover .glow-border::before {
|
||
opacity: 0.5;
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
.table thead th {
|
||
background-color: rgba(55, 65, 81, 0.5);
|
||
color: #e5e7eb; /* gray-200 */
|
||
}
|
||
.table tbody tr {
|
||
transition: background-color 0.2s ease;
|
||
}
|
||
.table tbody tr:hover {
|
||
background-color: rgba(55, 65, 81, 0.4);
|
||
}
|
||
</style>
|
||
</head>
|
||
|
||
<body class="min-h-screen">
|
||
<div class="container mx-auto p-4 sm:p-6 lg:p-8">
|
||
|
||
<!-- Header -->
|
||
<header class="text-center py-8 mb-8">
|
||
<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold tracking-tighter bg-clip-text text-transparent bg-gradient-to-br from-gray-200 via-blue-300 to-indigo-400">
|
||
铜产业 深度研究报告
|
||
</h1>
|
||
<p class="mt-4 text-lg text-gray-400">
|
||
北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 呈现
|
||
</p>
|
||
</header>
|
||
|
||
<main class="space-y-16">
|
||
<!-- Insight Section -->
|
||
<section id="insight">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title mb-8">核心洞察 (Core Insight)</h2>
|
||
<div class="bento-grid">
|
||
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-6 lg:p-8 grid-col-span-6 lg:grid-col-span-4 lg:grid-row-span-2">
|
||
<div class="glow-border">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-indigo-300 mb-4">核心观点摘要</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">
|
||
铜产业正处在一个由<strong class="text-blue-300">供给侧结构性短缺</strong>和<strong class="text-green-300">需求侧结构性增长</strong>共同驱动的超级周期起点。核心逻辑在于，上游矿产多年的资本开支不足导致供给弹性丧失，而下游传统领域（电网、家电）需求稳健复苏，叠加<strong class="text-purple-300">新能源（风光电、电动车）</strong>与<strong class="text-cyan-300">AI算力</strong>两大“新动能”开启了需求的第二增长曲线。当前市场已进入基本面驱动阶段，但短期仍受宏观政策（尤其是美国关税）和金融情绪的显著扰动。
|
||
</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-6 grid-col-span-6 lg:grid-col-span-2">
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-indigo-300 mb-2">关键事件驱动</h3>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm text-gray-400">
|
||
<li><span class="font-semibold text-cyan-400">美国关税：</span>宣布对进口铜征收50%关税，引发全球库存“虹吸效应”。</li>
|
||
<li><span class="font-semibold text-amber-400">供给收缩：</span>全球主要矿山减产/罢工，TC/RC加工费跌至历史低位。</li>
|
||
<li><span class="font-semibold text-fuchsia-400">AI新需求：</span>英伟达GB200等采用铜连接，打开长期想象空间。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-6 grid-col-span-6 lg:grid-col-span-2">
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-indigo-300 mb-2">未来发展路径</h3>
|
||
<ol class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-2 text-sm text-gray-400">
|
||
<li><strong class="text-white">当前-2026:</strong> “矿缺”主导，利润向上游集中。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-white">2026-2028:</strong> “需求”接力，能源转型属性凸显。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-white">2028以后:</strong> “替代与循环”博弈，进入高位平衡。</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-6 lg:p-8 grid-col-span-6">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-indigo-300 mb-4">核心逻辑与预期差分析</h3>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6 text-gray-300">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-300 mb-2">驱动力：不可逆的供需失衡</h4>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1 text-sm">
|
||
<li><strong class="text-gray-100">供给刚性：</strong>资本开支不足、品位下降、劳工问题导致供给曲线陡峭。TC/RC负值是矿端紧张的极致体现。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-gray-100">需求升级：</strong>地产拖累被新能源与AI新动能有效对冲，需求结构更健康、确定性更高。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-gray-100">政策托底：</strong>中国限制低效冶炼产能，客观上加剧中长期供给约束。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-purple-300 mb-2">市场热度与情绪</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">市场普遍乐观，研报预测铜价上看14000-15000美元。但存在分歧点：对宏观风险定价不足；未充分区分产业链利润分配，忽视了冶炼端压力。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-teal-300 mb-2">预期差分析：潜在盲点</h4>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1 text-sm">
|
||
<li><strong class="text-gray-100">美国关税：</strong>本质是“库存搬家”，阶段性扰动大于长期影响，市场可能高估其作用。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-gray-100">AI铜连接：</strong>仍是“从0到1”的逻辑，实际业绩贡献与股价预期存在差距。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-gray-100">废铜政策：</strong>被市场忽略的隐性利好，中国返税收紧将短期减少废铜供应，增加精铜需求。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Charts Section -->
|
||
<section id="charts">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title mb-8">数据可视化 (Data Visualization)</h2>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-6 h-[400px]">
|
||
<div id="demand-chart" class="w-full h-full"></div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-6 h-[400px]">
|
||
<div id="reserve-chart" class="w-full h-full"></div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 产业链与核心公司剖析 -->
|
||
<section id="industry-chain">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title mb-8">产业链与核心公司剖析</h2>
|
||
<div class="space-y-8">
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-6 lg:p-8">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-indigo-300 mb-4">产业链图谱</h3>
|
||
<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row items-center justify-between space-y-4 md:space-y-0 md:space-x-4 text-center">
|
||
<div class="p-4 rounded-lg border border-blue-500/50 w-full">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-blue-300">上游：资源开采</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">紫金矿业, 洛阳钼业</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="text-2xl text-gray-500">→</div>
|
||
<div class="p-4 rounded-lg border border-purple-500/50 w-full">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-purple-300">中游：冶炼精炼</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">江西铜业, 铜陵有色, 云南铜业</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="text-2xl text-gray-500">→</div>
|
||
<div class="p-4 rounded-lg border border-green-500/50 w-full">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-green-300">下游：铜材加工</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">金田股份, 海亮股份, 嘉元科技</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="text-2xl text-gray-500">→</div>
|
||
<div class="p-4 rounded-lg border border-cyan-500/50 w-full">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-cyan-300">新兴：AI铜连接</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">沃尔核材, 鼎通科技, 金信诺</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-6 lg:p-8">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-indigo-300 mb-4">核心玩家对比</h3>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-amber-300 text-lg">资源绝对龙头</h4>
|
||
<p class="font-bold">紫金矿业 / 洛阳钼业</p>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-1">逻辑最纯粹的上游资源型企业，是铜价上涨的最大受益者，业绩与铜价直接挂钩，不受TC/RC下跌影响。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-sky-300 text-lg">综合型巨头</h4>
|
||
<p class="font-bold">江西铜业</p>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-1">一体化布局，抗风险能力强，规模国内第一。通过长单锁定TC缓解冶炼压力，海外并购是未来增长关键。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-rose-300 text-lg">弹性追赶者</h4>
|
||
<p class="font-bold">云南铜业</p>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-1">最具资产注入预期的冶炼龙头。未来若整合集团巨型矿产，将实现从“冶炼”到“资源”的质变，潜力巨大。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Data Deep Dive -->
|
||
<section id="data-dive">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title mb-8">多维数据交叉验证 (Data Triangulation)</h2>
|
||
<div x-data="{ tab: 'news' }" class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-4 sm:p-6">
|
||
<div class="tabs tabs-boxed bg-black/20 mb-4">
|
||
<a class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'news'}" @click="tab = 'news'">宏观新闻</a>
|
||
<a class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'roadshow'}" @click="tab = 'roadshow'">市场路演</a>
|
||
<a class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'research'}" @click="tab = 'research'">机构研报</a>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div x-show="tab === 'news'" class="space-y-2">
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-base-200/50">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="news-accordion" checked="checked" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-blue-300">宏观政策与国际贸易</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-400 text-sm">
|
||
<li><strong>美国关税</strong>: 总统特朗普宣布对进口铜征收50%关税，预计7月底或8月1日实施，旨在重建本土产业链。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>市场反应</strong>: 关税预期推动美铜相对沪铜伦铜溢价超10%，全球铜库存被虹吸至美国。关税宣布后，美铜一度上涨17%，伦铜收跌约2%。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>影响分析</strong>: 关税实施将关闭套利窗口，美国转为消化本土库存，非美区域库存紧张缓解，伦铜承压。分析认为这是阶段性扰动，回调或为加仓机会。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>中国政策</strong>: 11部门发布《铜产业高质量发展实施方案（2025—2027年）》，引导产能向资源优势地区转移，鼓励高端产品出口和初级产品进口。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-base-200/50">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="news-accordion" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-green-300">市场基本面：供需、库存与价格</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-400 text-sm">
|
||
<li><strong>供给端</strong>: 下半年全球铜矿供给收缩，2025年或延续低迷。必和必拓Escondida铜矿工人罢工，Codelco产量下降。TC/RC逼近0值，冶炼厂有减产可能。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>需求端</strong>: 中国市场需求强劲，仓库库存大幅下降。长期看，预计到2030年铜有400万吨缺口，AI对铜需求拉动约1.5%。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>价格展望</strong>: 短期看好，预计Q4铜价中枢9500-10000美元/吨。中长期看，2025、2026年全球精炼铜短缺，2026年铜价或突破14000-15000美元。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-base-200/50">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="news-accordion" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-purple-300">新兴技术与应用领域</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-400 text-sm">
|
||
<li><strong>铜连接 (AI驱动)</strong>: GPU算力升级背景下，铜连接性价比及低功耗优势凸显。英伟达GB200等均采用铜连接设计。产业链短期供不应求。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>CPC技术</strong>: 共封装铜互连技术，相比CPO预计功耗低30%、成本降50%，为铜缆打开更大空间。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>铜浆料</strong>: 贱金属替代贵金属（银浆）是大势所趋，成本节约有望达20%-60%。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div x-show="tab === 'roadshow'" class="space-y-2">
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-base-200/50">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="roadshow-accordion" checked="checked" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-blue-300">供给端分析</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-400 text-sm">
|
||
<li><strong>全球矿山</strong>: 资本开支不足，品位下降，供给趋紧。2025年铜矿增量约3%，但预期外收缩风险高。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>TC/RC</strong>: 现货加工费降至零甚至负值（-20美元附近）。2025年长单TC预计降至20.5-30美元/吨，严重挤压冶炼利润。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>废铜供应</strong>: 中国783号文收紧返税政策，废铜供应可能收缩，支撑精铜需求。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-base-200/50">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="roadshow-accordion" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-green-300">需求端分析</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-400 text-sm">
|
||
<li><strong>需求结构</strong>: 老动能（电网、建筑）和新动能（光伏、风电、电动车、AI）并存。新动能占比已超10%。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>主要拖累</strong>: 房地产用铜需求预计持续负增长（2024年预计-6.7%）。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>替代风险</strong>: 铝线缆对铜线缆的替代在推进，但受技术限制规模有限。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div x-show="tab === 'research'" class="space-y-2">
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-base-200/50">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="research-accordion" checked="checked" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-amber-300">云南铜业 (000878.SZ)</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-400 text-sm">
|
||
<li><strong>产能</strong>: 西南铜业搬迁后，阴极铜总产能突破140万吨。但搬迁导致24H1产量同比减少22.8%。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>资源与注入预期</strong>: 公司是中铝集团唯一铜产业上市平台，未来对秘鲁Toromocho铜矿、凉山矿业等资产的注入预期是最大看点。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>TC/RC影响</strong>: 24H1长单保供价80美元/吨，利润超预期。但2025年长单价仅21.25美元/吨，压力巨大。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-base-200/50">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="research-accordion" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-sky-300">江西铜业 (600362.SH)</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-400 text-sm">
|
||
<li><strong>产量</strong>: 24H1阴极铜产量约117.5万吨，同比+18.9%。自产铜精矿稳定在每年约20万吨。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>盈利影响</strong>: 铜价上涨带动矿端利润改善。大部分冶炼享受80美元长单TC，受现货价暴跌影响较小。自产矿贡献大部分利润，业绩弹性强。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>长期趋势</strong>: 公司判断供需格局优化下未来铜价中枢有望不断抬升。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Data -->
|
||
<section id="stock-data">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title mb-8">相关标的梳理 (Key Stocks)</h2>
|
||
|
||
<div class="space-y-12">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-blue-300 mb-4">上游：铜矿资源储量</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra">
|
||
<thead><tr><th>股票名称</th><th>代码</th><th>核心逻辑（资源量）</th><th>数据来源</th></tr></thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>紫金矿业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601899" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">601899</a></td><td>铜资源量达1.1亿吨，位居全球第二</td><td>公告</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>洛阳钼业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603993" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">603993</a></td><td>保有铜资源量3444万吨</td><td>公告</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>江西铜业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600362" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">600362</a></td><td>权益金属资源量约铜1312万吨</td><td>公告</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>铜陵有色</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000630" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">000630</a></td><td>铜资源金属量721.81万吨</td><td>公告</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>西部矿业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601168" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">601168</a></td><td>保有资源储量铜金属581万吨</td><td>公告</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>云南铜业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000878" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">000878</a></td><td>保有铜资源金属量361.37万吨</td><td>公告</td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-purple-300 mb-4">中游：阴极铜产能/产量</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra">
|
||
<thead><tr><th>股票名称</th><th>代码</th><th>核心逻辑（2024年产量）</th><th>数据来源</th></tr></thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>江西铜业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600362" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">600362</a></td><td>生产阴极铜229.19万吨</td><td>年报</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>铜陵有色</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000630" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">000630</a></td><td>生产阴极铜176.80万吨</td><td>年报</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>云南铜业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000878" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">000878</a></td><td>生产阴极铜120.6万吨</td><td>年报</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>白银有色</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601212" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">601212</a></td><td>生产阴极铜36.12万吨</td><td>年报</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>北方铜业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000737" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">000737</a></td><td>阴极铜产能32万吨/年</td><td>年报</td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-green-300 mb-4">下游：铜加工产品</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra">
|
||
<thead><tr><th>股票名称</th><th>代码</th><th>核心逻辑（2024年营收）</th><th>数据来源</th></tr></thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>金田股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601609" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">601609</a></td><td>铜线（排）+铜合金营收共1117亿元</td><td>财报</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>海亮股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002203" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">002203</a></td><td>铜加工（铜管为主）营收617.95亿</td><td>财报</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>楚江新材</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002171" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">002171</a></td><td>铜基材营收517.71亿</td><td>财报</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>嘉元科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688388" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">688388</a></td><td>铜箔合计营收56.03亿</td><td>财报</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>诺德股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600110" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">600110</a></td><td>铜箔营收46.7亿</td><td>财报</td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-rose-400 mb-4">案例分析：情绪与基本面背离</h3>
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-6 lg:p-8">
|
||
<div class="flex items-start space-x-4">
|
||
<div class="flex-shrink-0">
|
||
<div class="w-12 h-12 bg-rose-500/20 rounded-lg flex items-center justify-center">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 text-rose-400" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 9v2m0 4h.01m-6.938 4h13.856c1.54 0 2.502-1.667 1.732-3L13.732 4c-.77-1.333-2.694-1.333-3.464 0L3.34 16c-.77 1.333.192 3 1.732 3z" /></svg>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-rose-300">铜牛信息 (300895) - “伪概念”警示</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-400 mt-2 text-sm leading-relaxed">
|
||
该股票在2025年10月23日上涨8.55%，但其上涨原因分析明确指出，股价异动源于<strong class="text-white">AI数据中心(IDC)的热度和公司名称的“联想效应”</strong>，与铜产业基本面<strong class="text-rose-400">毫无关系</strong>。市场在情绪高涨时，将其视为“AI+铜”双概念叠加股，放大了短期上涨动能。这警示投资者，在主题投资中必须穿透名称和概念，回归业务实质，警惕纯粹由市场情绪驱动的炒作风险。
|
||
</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Footer -->
|
||
<footer class="text-center py-12 mt-16 border-t border-gray-800">
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-500">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现</p>
|
||
<p class="text-xs text-gray-600 mt-2">免责声明：本报告为AI合成数据，所有内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。</p>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function () {
|
||
const chartTheme = {
|
||
color: ['#5470c6', '#91cc75', '#fac858', '#ee6666', '#73c0de', '#3ba272', '#fc8452', '#9a60b4', '#ea7ccc'],
|
||
backgroundColor: 'rgba(0,0,0,0)',
|
||
textStyle: {
|
||
color: '#d1d5db'
|
||
},
|
||
title: {
|
||
textStyle: {
|
||
color: '#e5e7eb'
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
legend: {
|
||
textStyle: {
|
||
color: '#d1d5db'
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
tooltip: {
|
||
backgroundColor: 'rgba(31, 41, 55, 0.8)',
|
||
borderColor: '#4b5563',
|
||
textStyle: {
|
||
color: '#f9fafb'
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
xAxis: {
|
||
axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#6b7280' } },
|
||
axisLabel: { color: '#d1d5db' },
|
||
splitLine: { show: false }
|
||
},
|
||
yAxis: {
|
||
axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#6b7280' } },
|
||
axisLabel: { color: '#d1d5db' },
|
||
splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: 'rgba(107, 114, 128, 0.2)' } }
|
||
}
|
||
};
|
||
|
||
// Demand Chart
|
||
var demandChartDom = document.getElementById('demand-chart');
|
||
if (demandChartDom) {
|
||
var demandChart = echarts.init(demandChartDom, null);
|
||
demandChart.setOption({
|
||
...chartTheme,
|
||
title: {
|
||
text: '铜需求结构（估算）',
|
||
left: 'center',
|
||
textStyle: { ...chartTheme.title.textStyle, fontSize: 16 }
|
||
},
|
||
tooltip: { trigger: 'item', formatter: '{a} <br/>{b} : {c}%' },
|
||
legend: {
|
||
orient: 'vertical',
|
||
left: 'left',
|
||
textStyle: chartTheme.legend.textStyle
|
||
},
|
||
series: [
|
||
{
|
||
name: '需求占比',
|
||
type: 'pie',
|
||
radius: '50%',
|
||
data: [
|
||
{ value: 30, name: '电网' },
|
||
{ value: 25, name: '建筑' },
|
||
{ value: 15, name: '家电与消费' },
|
||
{ value: 15, name: '新能源（车/光/风）' },
|
||
{ value: 10, name: '其他工业' },
|
||
{ value: 5, name: 'AI与数据中心' }
|
||
],
|
||
emphasis: {
|
||
itemStyle: {
|
||
shadowBlur: 10,
|
||
shadowOffsetX: 0,
|
||
shadowColor: 'rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5)'
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
]
|
||
});
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
// Reserve Chart
|
||
var reserveChartDom = document.getElementById('reserve-chart');
|
||
if (reserveChartDom) {
|
||
var reserveChart = echarts.init(reserveChartDom, null);
|
||
reserveChart.setOption({
|
||
...chartTheme,
|
||
title: {
|
||
text: '主要公司铜资源储量（万吨）',
|
||
left: 'center',
|
||
textStyle: { ...chartTheme.title.textStyle, fontSize: 16 }
|
||
},
|
||
tooltip: { trigger: 'axis', axisPointer: { type: 'shadow' } },
|
||
grid: { left: '3%', right: '4%', bottom: '3%', containLabel: true },
|
||
xAxis: { type: 'value', boundaryGap: [0, 0.01] },
|
||
yAxis: {
|
||
type: 'category',
|
||
data: ['云南铜业', '西部矿业', '铜陵有色', '江西铜业', '洛阳钼业', '紫金矿业'],
|
||
axisLabel: { interval: 0 }
|
||
},
|
||
series: [
|
||
{
|
||
name: '铜资源量',
|
||
type: 'bar',
|
||
data: [361, 581, 722, 1312, 3444, 11000]
|
||
}
|
||
]
|
||
});
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
window.addEventListener('resize', function() {
|
||
if(demandChart) demandChart.resize();
|
||
if(reserveChart) reserveChart.resize();
|
||
});
|
||
});
|
||
</script>
|
||
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html> |