551 lines
34 KiB
HTML
551 lines
34 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>国产算力芯片 - 深度研究报告</title>
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background-color: #0c0a18;
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background-image:
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</head>
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<body class="min-h-screen">
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<div class="disclaimer">
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北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现，本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。
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</div>
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
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<header class="text-center my-8 md:my-12">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold bg-clip-text text-transparent bg-gradient-to-r from-purple-400 via-pink-500 to-red-500 pb-2">
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国产算力芯片
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</h1>
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<p class="text-lg text-slate-400 mt-2">深度研究报告：从强制替代到生态闭环的跃迁</p>
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</header>
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<main class="bento-grid">
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<!-- Core Viewpoint -->
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<div class="grid-span-8 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h2 class="section-title">核心观点与最终结论</h2>
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<div class="card-content">
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<h3 class="card-title-sm text-lg">核心观点摘要</h3>
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<p class="mb-4 text-slate-300">在外部极限施压与内部战略需求双轮驱动下，国产算力芯片正经历从“可用”到“好用”的关键跃迁。当前，该概念已从单纯的主题炒作进入 <strong>政策订单驱动的基本面兑现阶段</strong>，其核心驱动力是无可替代的“国产化”需求而非短期内的技术对标；未来潜力则取决于以华为昇腾为首的头部厂商能否成功构建起足以抗衡CUDA的软件生态，以及上游制造工艺的持续突破。</p>
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<h3 class="card-title-sm text-lg mt-6">最终看法</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300">国产算力芯片概念已经 <strong>从纯粹的“主题炒作”阶段，进化到“政策订单驱动下的基本面兑现”阶段</strong>。其核心逻辑坚实，需求确定性高，头部公司的业绩已经开始释放。然而，它距离完全市场化的“技术与商业模式驱动”阶段仍有较长距离，当前的高增长高度依赖于特定的保护性市场环境。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Market Share Chart -->
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<div class="grid-span-4 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 flex flex-col">
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<h3 class="card-title-sm">政府与运营商市场格局</h3>
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<div id="marketShareChart" class="flex-grow min-h-[250px]"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Key Data Highlights -->
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<div class="grid-span-12 grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-4 gap-4">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-4">
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<div class="stat">
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<div class="stat-title">华为910C性能</div>
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<div class="stat-value text-xl">近H100 80-90%</div>
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<div class="stat-desc text-success">集群性能0到1突破</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-4">
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<div class="stat">
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<div class="stat-title">寒武纪 Q1'25营收</div>
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<div class="stat-value text-2xl text-success">+4230%</div>
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<div class="stat-desc">业绩爆发式增长</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-4">
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<div class="stat">
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<div class="stat-title">海光信息 Q1'25净利</div>
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<div class="stat-value text-2xl text-success">+75.33%</div>
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<div class="stat-desc">合同负债32.37亿元</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-4">
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<div class="stat">
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<div class="stat-title">国产化率目标</div>
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<div class="stat-value text-xl">超70%</div>
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<div class="stat-desc">上海2027年自主可控</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Core Logic & Perception -->
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<div class="grid-span-7 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h2 class="section-title">核心逻辑与市场认知</h2>
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<div class="card-content">
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<h3 class="card-title-sm">核心驱动力：生存驱动的强制替代</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>外部环境的“真空创造”</strong>：美国持续升级的芯片出口管制，为国产芯片创造了一个没有外部竞争对手的、规模庞大的“保护性市场”。</li>
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<li><strong>国家意志的“需求兜底”</strong>：政府、运营商及国企被要求优先甚至强制采购国产算力，提供了确定性的、大规模的基础订单。</li>
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<li><strong>技术进步的“可行性支撑”</strong>：以华为昇腾910C为代表，国产芯片在单卡和集群性能上已达“可用”门槛，是市场信心建立的技术基石。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3 class="card-title-sm mt-4">预期差分析</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>“单卡性能” vs “集群效率”</strong>：市场高估单卡峰值算力，但低估了因互联带宽（华为400G vs 英伟达800G）等短板导致的大规模集群性能损耗。</li>
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<li><strong>“全面替代” vs “场景分化”</strong>：市场倾向于认为全面替代，但实际上华为昇腾主攻训练，海光、寒武纪等更多面向推理或小模型市场，二三线厂商商业化能力弱。</li>
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<li><strong>“需求无忧” vs “供给瓶颈”</strong>：市场普遍认为需求旺盛，但忽略了供给侧的刚性约束，如先进制程产能、良率及先进封装（CoWoS-L）等。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Catalysts & Future Path -->
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<div class="grid-span-5 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h2 class="section-title">关键催化剂与发展路径</h2>
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<div class="card-content">
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<h3 class="card-title-sm">近期催化剂 (3-6个月)</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>关键产品量产</strong>：华为昇腾910D/920、海光深算3号、寒武纪MLU690的规模化量产及订单落地。</li>
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<li><strong>商业订单突破</strong>：头部互联网大厂对国产训练集群的大规模采购与应用成果公布。</li>
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<li><strong>AI芯片公司IPO</strong>：壁仞科技、燧原科技等公司的上市进程。</li>
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<li><strong>制造工艺突破</strong>：中芯国际更先进制程的明确进展或量产时间表。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3 class="card-title-sm mt-4">长期发展路径</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>阶段一 (当前-2025)</strong>：政策驱动下的基本盘确立期。</li>
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<li><strong>阶段二 (2025-2027)</strong>：生态构建与商业渗透期，“易用性”和“性价比”成关键。</li>
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<li><strong>阶段三 (2027以后)</strong>：技术追赶与市场化竞争期，从“被动替代”走向“主动选择”。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Industry Chain & Core Companies -->
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<div class="grid-span-12 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6" x-data="{ tab: 'huawei' }">
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<h2 class="section-title">产业链与核心公司深度剖析</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-12 gap-6">
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<div class="lg:col-span-4 card-content">
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<h3 class="card-title-sm">产业链图谱</h3>
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<h4>上游 (基础支撑)</h4>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>晶圆代工:</strong> 中芯国际 (核心制造瓶颈)</li>
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<li><strong>先进封装:</strong> CoWoS-L, ABF载板 (新生科技)</li>
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<li><strong>关键零部件:</strong> PCIe交换芯片 (数渡科技), 电源管理 (杰华特)</li>
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</ul>
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<h4>中游 (核心环节)</h4>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>第一梯队:</strong> 华为 (昇腾) - 未上市</li>
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<li><strong>第二梯队:</strong> 寒武纪 (MLU), 海光信息 (DCU), 景嘉微 (GPU)</li>
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<li><strong>第三梯队:</strong> 壁仞、燧原、摩尔线程等 (上市冲刺)</li>
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</ul>
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<h4>下游 (应用与集成)</h4>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>服务器/整机:</strong> 中科曙光, 拓维信息, 浪潮信息</li>
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<li><strong>云服务/IDC:</strong> 三大运营商, 世纪互联</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="lg:col-span-8">
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<div role="tablist" class="tabs tabs-boxed bg-black/20 mb-4">
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<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'huawei'}" @click.prevent="tab = 'huawei'">华为 (昇腾)</a>
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<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'haiguang'}" @click.prevent="tab = 'haiguang'">海光信息</a>
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<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'cambricon'}" @click.prevent="tab = 'cambricon'">寒武纪</a>
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</div>
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<div class="card-content">
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<div x-show="tab === 'huawei'" x-transition>
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<h3 class="card-title-sm">绝对领导者</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>优势:</strong> 技术实力最强（芯片+组网+软件栈），市场份额绝对领先（政府及运营商市场 <strong>80-85%</strong>），拥有最强的政策支持和生态号召力。</li>
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<li><strong>投资逻辑:</strong> 围绕其 <strong>核心供应链</strong>，如代工 (中芯国际)、供电 (杰华特)、封装基板 (华正新材) 等，业绩与昇腾出货量强绑定。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'haiguang'" x-transition>
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<h3 class="card-title-sm">最强追赶者 (通用路线)</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>优势:</strong> 采取 <strong>兼容CUDA生态</strong> 的GPGPU技术路线，降低用户迁移成本。形成“CPU+DCU”协同优势。财务数据亮眼，在手订单充足。</li>
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<li><strong>投资逻辑:</strong> A股最直接的国产GPGPU算力标的，逻辑纯粹。</li>
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<li><strong>风险:</strong> 在训练端性能和生态掌控力上弱于华为。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'cambricon'" x-transition>
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<h3 class="card-title-sm">最强追赶者 (专用路线)</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>优势:</strong> 深耕AI专用芯片（MLU架构），技术积累深厚。已打入互联网客户供应链，业绩弹性巨大 (25Q1营收同比暴增 <strong>+4230%</strong>)。</li>
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<li><strong>投资逻辑:</strong> A股AI芯片第一股，定增加码大模型芯片和软件平台，成长路径清晰。</li>
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<li><strong>风险:</strong> 专用架构需构建独立软件生态，推广难度大。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Risks & Investment Insights -->
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<div class="grid-span-6 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h2 class="section-title">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
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<div class="card-content">
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<ul>
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<li><strong>制造工艺瓶颈:</strong> 性能上限严重依赖 <strong>中芯国际</strong> 的先进制程良率和产能。</li>
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<li><strong>集群生态短板:</strong> 软件生态 (对标CUDA) 和高速互联技术 (对标NVLink) 是短期难以弥补的软肋。</li>
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<li><strong>高功耗问题:</strong> 国产卡功耗高于同性能海外卡，导致运营成本（电费）更高。</li>
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<li><strong>“政策市”依赖:</strong> 当前需求主要来自政策驱动，纯商业化竞争中的性价比和生态优势尚待验证。</li>
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<li><strong>外部制裁加剧:</strong> 美国可能将制裁范围扩大到中芯国际等关键制造环节。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="grid-span-6 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h2 class="section-title">投资启示与关键指标</h2>
|
||
<div class="card-content">
|
||
<h3 class="card-title-sm">最具投资价值的细分环节</h3>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>华为供应链 (“卖铲人”逻辑):</strong> 技术壁垒高、具有唯一性或高份额的供应商确定性最高，如中芯国际 (代工)、杰华特 (供电)。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>A股核心芯片设计商 (“第二梯队”逻辑):</strong> 海光信息和寒武纪具备高业绩弹性和稀缺性。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h3 class="card-title-sm mt-4">需重点跟踪的关键指标</h3>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>上游产能与良率:</strong> 中芯国际先进制程的季度产能利用率及良率变化。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>头部公司订单与毛利:</strong> 海光、寒武纪的季度新增合同负债、毛利率变化。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>商业客户渗透率:</strong> 非政府/运营商的互联网及企业客户收入占比。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Raw Data Section -->
|
||
<div class="grid-span-12 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6" x-data="{ open: '' }">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">原始数据摘要</h2>
|
||
<div class="space-y-2">
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-base-200/50">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="my-accordion-3" @click="open = 'news'"/>
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-slate-200">
|
||
新闻数据精要
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content card-content text-sm">
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>政策驱动:</strong> 中国政府加强AI芯片国产化指导，部委及地方政府国产化比例要求50-100%不等。网信办责令字节、阿里等停止采购英伟达芯片，并将预算转向华为、寒武纪。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>外部限制:</strong> 美国限制H20等产品出口，利好国产算力芯片。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>厂商进展 (华为):</strong> 910C算力接近H100的80-90%，集群性能实现0到1突破。CloudMatrix384超节点方案在Deepseek推理中效率超H100方案18%。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>厂商进展 (其他):</strong> 寒武纪MLU690(对标H100)放量在即；海光深算3号性能“比A100强一些”，有望实现千卡集群。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>生态协同:</strong> DeepSeek等国产大模型与国产算力相互拥抱，加速迭代，并针对下一代国产芯片进行设计优化。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-base-200/50">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="my-accordion-3" @click="open = 'roadshow'"/>
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-slate-200">
|
||
路演纪要核心
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content card-content text-sm">
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>国产替代加速:</strong> 美国禁令为国内厂商（华为、寒武纪、海光）提供替代机会，国产AI芯片占比从2024上半年30-40%提升至下半年超50%。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>华为昇腾地位:</strong> 占据国内训练卡领域领先地位。910B对标A100，24年底发布910C对标H系列。产能是核心变量，25年出货目标巨大。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>技术差距:</strong> 国产芯片在互联带宽（华为400G vs NV 800G）、微架构成熟度、代工能力上仍有差距。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>市场拐点:</strong> 世纪互联40MW订单明确“用于部署国产算力卡/芯片”，被视为规模化落地的拐点信号。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>涨价趋势:</strong> 因供不应求，国产算力芯片出现涨价，幅度至少40%以上。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-base-200/50">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="my-accordion-3" @click="open = 'report'"/>
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-slate-200">
|
||
研报观点汇总
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content card-content text-sm">
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>市场空间:</strong> 美国限制下，国产算力芯片有望占据超百亿美元市场，成就千亿级市场。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>核心厂商:</strong> 国内领先算力芯片企业主要包括华为昇腾、寒武纪、海光信息和壁仞科技。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>寒武纪深度:</strong> 定位为国产算力芯片中军，思元590综合性能接近A100，下一代思元690性能翻倍。自研MLU-Link多芯互联技术和Cambricon NeuWare软件平台（类CUDA）。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>产业链关注:</strong> 建议关注芯片设计、服务器、光模块、制造（中芯国际）、散热等全产业链投资机会。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stocks Table -->
|
||
<div class="grid-span-12 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">相关上市公司梳理</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra w-full stock-table">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>公司名称</th>
|
||
<th>代码</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑</th>
|
||
<th>标签</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td colspan="4" class="font-bold text-center bg-black/30">核心芯片设计 (自有产品)</td></tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>寒武纪</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688256" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">688256</a></td>
|
||
<td>国内稀缺云端AI芯片厂商，云端产品线迭代至思元590；边缘产品线以思元220为主</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">MLU</div> <div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">自有产品</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>海光信息</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688041" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">688041</a></td>
|
||
<td>DCU系列基于GPGPU架构，技术国内领先。CPU+DCU协同优势。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">GPU</div> <div class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">CPU</div> <div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">自有产品</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>景嘉微</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300474" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">300474</a></td>
|
||
<td>国内专用GPU龙头，核心产品JM9系列芯片及景宏系列AI算力产品</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">GPU</div> <div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">自有产品</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>龙芯中科</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688047" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">688047</a></td>
|
||
<td>基于自主指令系统LoongArch构建独立技术体系的CPU企业</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">CPU</div> <div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">自有产品</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr><td colspan="4" class="font-bold text-center bg-black/30">芯片设计服务 (IP & ASIC)</td></tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>芯原股份</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688521" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">688521</a></td>
|
||
<td>国内领先SOC及ASIC设计服务商，拥有一体化平台式定制芯片设计能力；拥有GPU、NPU、VPU等多款处理器IP</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">ASIC</div> <div class="badge badge-outline">IP核</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>翱捷科技</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688220" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">688220</a></td>
|
||
<td>定制化ASIC能力国内领先</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">ASIC</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr><td colspan="4" class="font-bold text-center bg-black/30">其他架构 & 关联芯片</td></tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>中兴通讯</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000063" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">000063</a></td>
|
||
<td>自研定海芯片是数据处理加速（DPU）芯片</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-warning badge-outline">DPU</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>致尚科技</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301486" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">301486</a></td>
|
||
<td>拟收购恒扬数据（99.98%），其DPU产品主要包括NSAX1/X3/X5 DPU、NSA A3 DPU</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-warning badge-outline">DPU</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>万通发展</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600246" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">600246</a></td>
|
||
<td>控股数渡科技（62.98%），核心产品为PCIe高速交换芯片，是连接CPU和GPU的关键芯片</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-neutral badge-outline">PCIe交换芯片</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr><td colspan="4" class="font-bold text-center bg-black/30">参股/投资国产GPU初创公司</td></tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>东芯股份</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688110" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">688110</a></td>
|
||
<td>砺算科技(持股37.13%)发布了7G100系列GPU芯片；网传落地首批GPU订单</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-success badge-outline">参股</div> <div class="badge badge-outline">砺算科技</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>和而泰</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002402" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">002402</a></td>
|
||
<td>投资摩尔线程、沐曦股份</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-success badge-outline">投资</div> <div class="badge badge-outline">摩尔线程</div> <div class="badge badge-outline">沐曦股份</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>上海临港</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600848" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">600848</a></td>
|
||
<td>投资壁仞科技</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-success badge-outline">投资</div> <div class="badge badge-outline">壁仞科技</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>高伟达</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300465" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">300465</a></td>
|
||
<td>投资燧原科技</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-success badge-outline">投资</div> <div class="badge badge-outline">燧原科技</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>比亚迪</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002594" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">002594</a></td>
|
||
<td>投资昆仑芯</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-success badge-outline">投资</div> <div class="badge badge-outline">昆仑芯</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
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|
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|
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