536 lines
34 KiB
HTML
536 lines
34 KiB
HTML
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>小鹏机器人 - 深度投研报告</title>
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<div class="glow-bg glow-2"></div>
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-extrabold bg-gradient-to-r from-sky-400 to-indigo-400 text-transparent bg-clip-text pb-2">
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小鹏机器人 深度投研报告
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</h1>
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<p class="text-slate-400 mt-2">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研”</p>
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</header>
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<main class="space-y-16">
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<!-- Insight Section -->
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<section id="insight">
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<h2 class="section-title">概念洞察 (Concept Insight)</h2>
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<!-- Bento Grid Layout -->
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<div class="glass-card p-6 lg:p-8 grid-col-span-3">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-sky-300">概念事件与发展时间轴</h3>
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<ul class="timeline timeline-snap-icon max-md:timeline-compact timeline-vertical">
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<li>
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<div class="timeline-middle"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.002-5.5a.75.75 0 00-.163-1.214z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg></div>
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<div class="timeline-end md:text-end mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic">2020年12月</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black text-primary">战略起点</div>
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小鹏汽车收购【多够机器人】，合资成立【鹏行智能】，正式布局机器人赛道。
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</div>
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<hr/>
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</li>
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<li>
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<hr/>
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<div class="timeline-middle"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.002-5.5a.75.75 0 00-.163-1.214z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg></div>
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<div class="timeline-start mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic">2023年10月24日</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black text-primary">首次亮相</div>
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首款人形双足机器人PX5在“1024科技日”亮相，标志着小鹏正式进入人形机器人领域。
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</div>
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<hr/>
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</li>
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<li>
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<hr/>
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<div class="timeline-middle"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.002-5.5a.75.75 0 00-.163-1.214z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg></div>
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<div class="timeline-end md:text-end mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic">2024年11月5日</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black text-primary">关键催化</div>
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新一代人形机器人IRON以流畅“猫步”惊艳亮相，公布详尽技术参数、AI架构及与宝钢的合作。
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</div>
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<hr/>
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</li>
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<li>
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<hr/>
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<div class="timeline-middle"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.002-5.5a.75.75 0 00-.163-1.214z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg></div>
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<div class="timeline-start mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic">2025年5月后</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black text-primary">工厂实训</div>
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IRON机器人进入小鹏广州工厂实训，标志着从实验室走向工业应用场景的探索。
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</div>
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<hr/>
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</li>
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<li>
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<hr/>
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<div class="timeline-middle"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.002-5.5a.75.75 0 00-.163-1.214z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg></div>
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<div class="timeline-end md:text-end">
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<time class="font-mono italic">核心预期</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black text-primary">2026年底量产</div>
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计划于2026年底实现L3级高阶人形机器人规模化量产，目标锚定5万台。
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</div>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-6 lg:p-8 grid-col-span-2">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-sky-300">核心观点摘要</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300 leading-relaxed">小鹏机器人概念的核心是<strong class="text-indigo-300">“车-机器人同源”</strong>的复用逻辑，即小鹏汽车将其在智能驾驶领域积累的AI大模型、感知算法和供应链管理能力，降维赋能于人形机器人，意图在具身智能时代复制其在智能汽车领域的竞争优势。当前，该概念正处于从<strong class="text-indigo-300">“技术叙事”向“商业化验证”过渡的关键阶段</strong>，其未来潜力取决于能否成功将技术领先性转化为工业场景的经济性和可靠性。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-6 lg:p-8">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-sky-300">市场热度与情绪</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300">当前市场对小鹏机器人概念抱有<strong class="text-indigo-300">极高的热度和乐观情绪</strong>。从“真人扮演”争议到何小鹏“再花500亿”的豪言，相关新闻持续发酵。多份研报将其视为“重磅催化”，并提升到小鹏汽车“估值重塑”的核心驱动力层面。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-6 lg:p-8 grid-col-span-3">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-sky-300">核心驱动力分析</h3>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-lg text-slate-100">技术同源与成本复用</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400 mt-2">VLA大模型与智驾、飞行汽车同源共用，形成“一云多端”研发体系，极大降低AI研发成本。机器人与汽车供应链协同度高达70%，汽车供应链的规模优势有望显著降低硬件成本。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-lg text-slate-100">AI大模型的端到端应用</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400 mt-2">区别于传统模块化控制，采用AI端到端大模型进行全身平衡和动作控制。机器人能通过学习（而非编程）执行任务，具备更强的泛化能力和适应性。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-lg text-slate-100">明确的商业化路径</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400 mt-2">明确了“先工业，再商业服务，后家用”的务实路径。已在自家工厂实训并与宝钢合作，为商业化落地提供了清晰的验证场景，降低了市场的不确定性。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-6 lg:p-8 grid-col-span-2">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-sky-300">关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3">
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<li><strong class="text-indigo-300">近期 (3-6个月):</strong> 工厂实训成果展示、SDK开放与开发者生态建立、新一代机器人亮相。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-indigo-300">阶段一 (2024-2026):</strong> 工业场景验证期。在工厂实现L3级机器人小规模部署，打磨技术，降低成本。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-indigo-300">阶段二 (2026-2028):</strong> 商业服务拓展期。实现规模化量产，推向门店等商业场景，并开始小范围发售。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-indigo-300">阶段三 (2028年以后):</strong> 家庭场景渗透期。技术、安全、成本达到家庭可接受水平后，向C端市场渗透。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-6 lg:p-8">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-sky-300">潜在风险与挑战</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-slate-300">
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<li><strong class="text-rose-400">技术风险:</strong> 核心硬件寿命与可靠性瓶颈、AI模型泛化能力、全固态电池量产不确定性。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-rose-400">商业化风险:</strong> 成本控制压力大、初期应用场景“刚需”程度存疑。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-rose-400">信息交叉验证风险:</strong> 自由度、算力等关键参数在不同信息源中存在矛盾。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Data Deep Dive Section -->
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<section id="data-dive" x-data="{ tab: 'news' }">
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<h2 class="section-title">数据深潜 (Data Deep Dive)</h2>
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<div role="tablist" class="tabs tabs-boxed tabs-lg glass-card p-2 mb-6">
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<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'news' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'news'">新闻数据</a>
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<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'roadshow' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'roadshow'">路演纪要</a>
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<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'reports' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'reports'">研报精粹</a>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-6 lg:p-8">
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<!-- News Data -->
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<div x-show="tab === 'news'" class="space-y-4">
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<div class="collapse collapse-arrow bg-base-200/50">
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<input type="checkbox" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">机器人型号、命名及迭代</div>
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<div class="collapse-content">
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 p-4">
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<li><strong>首款人形双足机器人PX5：</strong>2023年10月，在“1024科技日”首次亮相。</li>
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<li><strong>新一代人形机器人IRON：</strong>2024年11月发布，身高178cm，体重70kg。</li>
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<li><strong>后续迭代：</strong>计划2025Q4或1024科技日发布下一代机器人。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="collapse collapse-arrow bg-base-200/50">
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<input type="checkbox" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">技术规格与特点</div>
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<div class="collapse-content">
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 p-4">
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<li><strong>自由度与关节：</strong>全身62-82个自由度，灵巧手单手22个自由度。</li>
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<li><strong>核心硬件：</strong>采用谐波+行星+丝杠方案，单机丝杠用量超20套；行业首发全固态电池。</li>
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<li><strong>大脑与AI：</strong>搭载三颗图灵AI芯片，算力高达2250 TOPs；采用AI端到端大模型，与汽车技术复用。</li>
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<li><strong>感知系统：</strong>鹰眼视觉系统（720°感知），全身柔性皮肤支持触觉传感。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="collapse collapse-arrow bg-base-200/50">
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<input type="checkbox" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">量产计划与商业化</div>
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<div class="collapse-content">
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 p-4">
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<li><strong>量产时间表：</strong>计划2026年底实现L3级别机器人规模化量产。</li>
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<li><strong>量产目标：</strong>锚定2026年5万台。</li>
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<li><strong>应用场景：</strong>主攻工业场景（已在小鹏工厂实训），逐步拓展至商业服务（门店导览），最终目标进入家庭。</li>
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<li><strong>成本与国产化：</strong>核心设计对标Optimus但成本低30%-40%，国产化率突破80%。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Roadshow Data -->
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<div x-show="tab === 'roadshow'" class="space-y-4">
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<div class="collapse collapse-arrow bg-base-200/50">
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<input type="checkbox" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">战略定位与商业化</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 p-4">
|
||
<li><strong>商业化优先级：</strong>管理层明确“先导览/导购 -> 再工业 -> 后家用”。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>工厂场景：</strong>已实现L2级功能，目标2026年升级至L3。但管理层认为“打螺丝”因手寿命短暂不具备经济性。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>量产节点：</strong>广州具身智能数据工厂，2026年底规模量产。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>估值弹性：</strong>机器人与飞行汽车为小鹏提供估值弹性，是打开长期想象空间的新兴业务。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-arrow bg-base-200/50">
|
||
<input type="checkbox" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">技术协同与复用</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 p-4">
|
||
<li><strong>核心技术同源：</strong>依托智能驾驶积累，加速机器人落地。自动驾驶与机器人共享感知、决策算法。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>VLA大模型：</strong>率先将同一VLA模型跨域复用于车、机器人、飞行汽车，形成数据与算法闭环。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>供应链协同：</strong>机器人与汽车供应链协同度达70%，客户重叠度高。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Reports Data -->
|
||
<div x-show="tab === 'reports'" class="space-y-4">
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-arrow bg-base-200/50">
|
||
<input type="checkbox" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">产品与技术规格 (IRON机器人)</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 p-4">
|
||
<li><strong>核心设计理念：</strong>采用“骨骼-肌肉-皮肤”三层仿生架构，实现极致的拟人步态。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>物理参数：</strong>身高178cm，体重70kg，全身高达82个自由度，灵巧手22个自由度。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>AI与控制系统：</strong>同源共用小鹏物理世界AI模型的VOW架构，搭载三颗自研图灵AI芯片，算力2250TOPS。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>能源系统：</strong>采用全固态电池技术，实现轻量化与高安全性。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-arrow bg-base-200/50">
|
||
<input type="checkbox" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">公司战略与行业地位</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 p-4">
|
||
<li><strong>公司定位升级：</strong>从“新势力汽车公司”转变为“探索物理AI前沿技术的科技公司”。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>行业地位：</strong>被视为催化第二轮机器人行情的关键因素，标志中国企业在通用AI与机器人赛道跻身世界前列。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>投资逻辑：</strong>硬件端核心零部件优先受益；软件端汽车端到端大模型深度贴合应用场景。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- ECharts Visualization -->
|
||
<section id="visualization">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">产业链构成分析</h2>
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-6 lg:p-8">
|
||
<div id="echarts-pie" style="width: 100%; height: 400px;"></div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Table Section -->
|
||
<section id="stocks">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">相关产业链公司</h2>
|
||
<div class="glass-card overflow-x-auto p-4">
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>产业链环节</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑/原因</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<!-- Core Confirmed Suppliers -->
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>汉宇集团</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300403" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">300403.SZ</a></td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-primary">减速器/关节</div></td>
|
||
<td>通过子公司同川科技，为IRON提供谐波减速器和机电一体化关节，并与小鹏联合开发，深度绑定。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>方正电机</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002196" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">002196.SZ</a></td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-secondary">电机/关节</div></td>
|
||
<td>与小鹏汽车合资成立公司专注机器人关节研发，从供应商升级为合资伙伴。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>双林股份</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300100" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">300100.SZ</a></td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-accent">丝杠</div></td>
|
||
<td>为小鹏机器人提供丝杠产品，IRON用量超20套，价值量可观。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>威贸电子</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=833864" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">833864.BJ</a></td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-ghost">线束组件</div></td>
|
||
<td>是小鹏人形机器人的线束组件供应商，已通过小鹏认证。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>骏创科技</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=833533" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">833533.BJ</a></td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-ghost">结构件</div></td>
|
||
<td>为小鹏人形机器人提供面罩。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<!-- High Potential Suppliers -->
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>绿的谐波</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688017" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">688017.SH</a></td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-primary">减速器</div></td>
|
||
<td>国内谐波减速器龙头，产品能帮助机器人在运动中保持精准和平稳。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>柯力传感</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603662" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">603662.SH</a></td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-info">传感器</div></td>
|
||
<td>传感器领域企业，可能为机器人提供力传感器等产品，使其具备感知外界力量的能力。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>汉威科技</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300007" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">300007.SZ</a></td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-info">触觉传感器</div></td>
|
||
<td>潜在的电子皮肤/触觉传感器供应商。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>广东鸿图</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000573" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">000573.SZ</a></td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-ghost">结构件</div></td>
|
||
<td>深度参与机器人铝合金/镁合金覆盖件和结构件研发，与小鹏在汽车业务上合作紧密。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>美湖股份</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603319" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">603319.SH</a></td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-primary">减速器/关节</div></td>
|
||
<td>人形机器人谐波减速器、关节模组已送样验证。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>欣旺达</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300207" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">300207.SZ</a></td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-success">电池系统</div></td>
|
||
<td>与小鹏系资本合作投资机器人领域，有望提供电池系统。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>亿纬锂能</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300014" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">300014.SZ</a></td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-success">电池系统</div></td>
|
||
<td>接洽头部人形机器人客户需求，可能为小鹏机器人提供高性能电池。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>兆威机电</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=003021" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">003021.SZ</a></td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-warning">灵巧手/电机</div></td>
|
||
<td>微型传动系统专家，可能为灵巧手提供核心动力部件。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>德赛西威</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002920" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">002920.SZ</a></td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-info">感知系统</div></td>
|
||
<td>汽车电子领域龙头，其智能驾驶和视觉技术积累可为机器人视觉感知提供支持。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Footer -->
|
||
<footer class="text-center text-xs text-slate-500 mt-16 py-8 border-t border-slate-800">
|
||
<p>北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现</p>
|
||
<p class="mt-2">免责声明：本报告由人工智能基于公开信息合成，旨在提供信息参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资有风险，决策需谨慎。</p>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
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<script>
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