568 lines
38 KiB
HTML
568 lines
38 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>甲苯二异氰酸酯-TDI 深度行研报告</title>
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.11.1/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
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<script defer src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js"></script>
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<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com">
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<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.gstatic.com" crossorigin>
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<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:wght@300;400;500;600;700&family=Space+Grotesk:wght@400;500;700&display=swap" rel="stylesheet">
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<style>
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:root {
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--glow-color-1: rgba(79, 70, 229, 0.4); /* Indigo */
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--glow-color-2: rgba(147, 51, 234, 0.3); /* Purple */
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--glow-color-3: rgba(219, 39, 119, 0.2); /* Pink */
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}
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body {
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font-family: 'Inter', sans-serif;
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background-color: #020010;
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background-image:
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radial-gradient(at 27% 37%, hsla(215, 98%, 61%, 0.1) 0px, transparent 50%),
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radial-gradient(at 97% 21%, hsla(125, 98%, 72%, 0.1) 0px, transparent 50%),
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radial-gradient(at 10% 29%, hsla(256, 96%, 68%, 0.1) 0px, transparent 50%),
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radial-gradient(at 97% 96%, hsla(38, 60%, 74%, 0.1) 0px, transparent 50%),
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radial-gradient(at 33% 50%, hsla(222, 67%, 73%, 0.1) 0px, transparent 50%),
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radial-gradient(at 79% 53%, hsla(343, 68%, 79%, 0.1) 0px, transparent 50%);
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color: #e0e0e0;
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overflow-x: hidden;
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}
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.fui-title {
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font-family: 'Space Grotesk', sans-serif;
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}
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.glass-card {
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background: rgba(20, 20, 40, 0.6);
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backdrop-filter: blur(20px) saturate(150%);
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-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(20px) saturate(150%);
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border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
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border-radius: 24px;
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transition: all 0.3s ease;
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}
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.glass-card:hover {
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transform: translateY(-5px);
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box-shadow: 0 0 30px rgba(79, 70, 229, 0.3);
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}
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.bento-grid {
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display: grid;
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gap: 1.5rem;
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grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit, minmax(300px, 1fr));
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}
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.glow-border {
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position: relative;
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}
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.glow-border::before {
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content: '';
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position: absolute;
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inset: -1px;
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border-radius: 25px; /* one more than the card's border-radius */
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background: conic-gradient(from 180deg at 50% 50%, var(--glow-color-1), var(--glow-color-2), var(--glow-color-3), var(--glow-color-1));
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filter: blur(15px);
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z-index: -1;
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animation: spin 5s linear infinite;
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}
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@keyframes spin {
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from { transform: rotate(0deg); }
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to { transform: rotate(360deg); }
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position: relative;
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padding-left: 2rem;
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}
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.timeline-item {
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position: relative;
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margin-bottom: 2rem;
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}
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.timeline-item::before {
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content: '';
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position: absolute;
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left: -2.5rem;
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top: 5px;
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height: 1rem;
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border-radius: 50%;
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background-color: #8e2de2;
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border: 3px solid #1d232a;
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box-shadow: 0 0 10px #8e2de2;
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}
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.echarts-container {
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width: 100%;
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height: 400px;
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}
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.table th, .table td {
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border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
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}
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.table th {
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color: #a5b4fc;
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="min-h-screen">
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<div class="fixed top-0 left-0 w-full h-full -z-10">
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<div class="absolute top-0 left-0 w-1/2 h-full bg-gradient-to-br from-indigo-900/30 via-purple-900/10 to-transparent opacity-50 blur-3xl"></div>
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<div class="absolute bottom-0 right-0 w-1/2 h-full bg-gradient-to-tl from-pink-900/30 via-blue-900/10 to-transparent opacity-50 blur-3xl"></div>
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</div>
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
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<header class="text-center py-12">
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<h1 class="fui-title text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold tracking-wider bg-clip-text text-transparent bg-gradient-to-r from-indigo-400 via-purple-400 to-pink-400">
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甲苯二异氰酸酯 (TDI)
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</h1>
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<p class="fui-title mt-4 text-xl md:text-2xl text-slate-300">深度行业研究报告</p>
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<div class="mt-6 text-sm text-slate-500">
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<p>北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 呈现</p>
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<p class="mt-1">本报告为AI合成数据，据此投资，风险自担。</p>
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</div>
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</header>
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<main class="space-y-12">
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<!-- 核心观点摘要 -->
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<section class="glow-border">
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<div class="glass-card p-8">
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<h2 class="fui-title text-2xl font-bold text-indigo-300 mb-4">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<p class="text-lg leading-relaxed text-slate-200">
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甲苯二异氰酸酯-TDI概念当前正处于由“黑天鹅”事件驱动的、<strong class="text-purple-300">高确定性的供给收缩周期</strong>。其核心驱动力源于全球寡头产能的意外、集中且长时间的停摆，这彻底扭转了2024年市场对产能过剩的悲观预期。未来潜力取决于供给缺口修复的速度与下游需求承接能力的博弈，短期内价格弹性巨大，但长期仍面临需求疲软和新增产能的挑战。
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</p>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 事件时间轴 -->
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<section class="glass-card p-8">
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<h2 class="fui-title text-2xl font-bold text-indigo-300 mb-8">概念事件：从“过剩”到“黑天鹅”的叙事反转</h2>
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<div class="timeline">
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-purple-300">2024年 (背景：供过于求)</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-slate-400">2024.05 - 2024.11</p>
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<p class="mt-2 text-slate-300">市场普遍共识TDI行业处下行周期，面临新增产能释放压力，价格从17,000元/吨高点回落至13,000-14,000元/吨。行业处于“底部磨底”阶段，全球产能向中国集中趋势已形成。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-purple-300">2025年 Q1-Q2 (酝酿期：供需边际改善)</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-slate-400">2025.01 - 2025.06</p>
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<p class="mt-2 text-slate-300">巴斯夫、万华相继发布涨价函。受韩国多家工厂集中检修影响，供给端出现短期扰动，价格回暖。出口需求强劲（1-5月同比+83.22%），行业库存处低位，供需边际趋紧。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-red-400">2025年 7月 (爆发期：全球供应冲击)</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-slate-400">2025.07.12 - 2025.07.27</p>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside mt-2 space-y-2 text-slate-300">
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<li><strong class="text-red-300">核心催化剂:</strong> 7月16日，德国科思创（30万吨/年产能，占全球~9%）正式宣布TDI遭遇<strong class="text-red-300">不可抗力</strong>，预计停产6-12个月。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-amber-300">连锁反应:</strong> 万华匈牙利工厂、日本三井、国内多家工厂相继进入检修或停产。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-green-300">价格飙升:</strong> 国内市场均价从火灾前的11,500元/吨飙升至16,250元/吨以上，龙头厂商出厂价上调至20,000元/吨。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-300">供应短缺:</strong> 至7月底，全球短期停产/检修产能超<strong class="text-cyan-300">130万吨</strong>，约占全球总产能的<strong class="text-cyan-300">30%-42%</strong>，造成史无前例的供应短缺。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 数据可视化 -->
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<section class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div class="glass-card p-6">
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<h3 class="fui-title text-xl font-semibold text-center text-indigo-300">2025年7月TDI价格走势 (元/吨)</h3>
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<div id="price-chart" class="echarts-container"></div>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-6">
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<h3 class="fui-title text-xl font-semibold text-center text-indigo-300">全球TDI短期产能影响分布</h3>
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<div id="outage-chart" class="echarts-container"></div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 核心逻辑与市场认知分析 -->
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<section class="glass-card p-8" x-data="{ tab: 'driver' }">
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<h2 class="fui-title text-2xl font-bold text-indigo-300 mb-6">核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h2>
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<div class="tabs tabs-boxed bg-black/20 mb-6">
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<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'driver' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'driver'">核心驱动力</a>
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<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'perception' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'perception'">市场热度与情绪</a>
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<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'gap' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'gap'">预期差分析</a>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'driver'" class="space-y-4">
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<h3 class="fui-title font-semibold text-lg text-purple-300">供给侧强力冲击</h3>
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<p>本次TDI行情的核心驱动力并非技术或政策，而是典型的<strong class="text-rose-300">供给侧强力冲击</strong>。TDI是高度寡占的成熟化工品，全球产能集中于少数巨头。德国科思创30万吨产能的长期停产点燃导火索，并由万华欧洲、日本三井及国内多家工厂的集中检修形成“连环冲击”，导致短期内全球有效产能急剧萎缩超30%，从而引发价格暴涨。</p>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'perception'" class="space-y-4">
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<h3 class="fui-title font-semibold text-lg text-purple-300">180度大反转</h3>
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<p>市场热度在2025年7月达到顶峰，新闻媒体密集报道，分析师紧急召开电话会议，情绪极其乐观。这与2024年路演中“产能过剩”、“价格承压”的谨慎悲观情绪形成了<strong class="text-rose-300">180度的大反转</strong>，充分体现了事件驱动型行情的爆发力。</p>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'gap'" class="space-y-4">
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<h3 class="fui-title font-semibold text-lg text-purple-300">三大预期差</h3>
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<ul class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-3">
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<li><strong>叙事反转的预期差：</strong>市场在短期内将TDI从“周期下行品”转变为“超级景气品”，忽略了成熟化工品在全球高度集中格局下的供应链脆弱性与“黑天鹅”风险。</li>
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<li><strong>对需求的预期差：</strong>市场完全聚焦于供给冲击，而可能<strong class="text-amber-300">选择性忽略了潜在的需求疲软</strong>。高价若无法向下游传导，可能导致“需求萎缩”，这是限制价格上涨高度和持续性的关键变量。</li>
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<li><strong>国内产能的“双刃剑”效应：</strong>国内装置检修短期是利好，但一旦检修结束，中国庞大的产能（占全球近50%）将迅速填补缺口，成为价格天花板的压制因素。<strong class="text-cyan-300">万华福建36万吨装置的复产时间点</strong>是短期核心变量。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 产业链与核心公司 -->
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<section class="glass-card p-8">
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<h2 class="fui-title text-2xl font-bold text-indigo-300 mb-8">产业链与核心公司深度剖析</h2>
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<div class="glass-card p-6 col-span-1 md:col-span-2 glow-border">
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<h3 class="fui-title text-xl font-semibold text-purple-300 mb-4">产业链图谱</h3>
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<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row items-center justify-around text-center space-y-4 md:space-y-0">
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<div class="flex flex-col items-center">
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<div class="w-24 h-24 rounded-full bg-indigo-900/50 flex items-center justify-center border-2 border-indigo-500 shadow-lg shadow-indigo-500/20">
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<span class="text-indigo-300 font-bold">上游</span>
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</div>
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<p class="mt-2 text-sm">石油、甲苯<br>氯气、硝酸</p>
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</div>
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<div class="text-3xl text-slate-500">→</div>
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<div class="flex flex-col items-center">
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<div class="w-24 h-24 rounded-full bg-purple-900/50 flex items-center justify-center border-2 border-purple-500 shadow-lg shadow-purple-500/20">
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<span class="text-purple-300 font-bold">中游</span>
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</div>
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<p class="mt-2 text-sm"><strong class="text-rose-400">TDI制造商<br>(核心受益环节)</strong></p>
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</div>
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<div class="text-3xl text-slate-500">→</div>
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<div class="flex flex-col items-center">
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<div class="w-24 h-24 rounded-full bg-pink-900/50 flex items-center justify-center border-2 border-pink-500 shadow-lg shadow-pink-500/20">
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<span class="text-pink-300 font-bold">下游</span>
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</div>
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<p class="mt-2 text-sm">聚氨酯软泡<br>涂料、胶粘剂</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-6">
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<h3 class="fui-title text-xl font-semibold text-purple-300">万华化学 (600309)</h3>
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<p class="text-sm font-bold text-cyan-300">全球霸主</p>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside mt-2 space-y-1 text-sm">
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<li><strong>优势:</strong> 绝对规模(111万吨/年)、一体化成本(约1万元/吨)、全球网络。</li>
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<li><strong>逻辑:</strong> 业绩弹性巨大，是填补欧洲缺口的直接出口商，确定性高。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-6">
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<h3 class="fui-title text-xl font-semibold text-purple-300">沧州大化 (600230)</h3>
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<p class="text-sm font-bold text-cyan-300">高弹性纯粹标的</p>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside mt-2 space-y-1 text-sm">
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<li><strong>优势:</strong> 主业高度聚焦TDI(16万吨/年)、成本控制良好(约1.1万元/吨)。</li>
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<li><strong>逻辑:</strong> 业绩与TDI价格高度相关，弹性极高。“价格每涨1000元，增厚利润1.2亿”。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-6 col-span-1 md:col-span-2">
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<h3 class="fui-title text-xl font-semibold text-purple-300">华鲁恒升</h3>
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<p class="text-sm font-bold text-amber-300">未来颠覆者 (TDI业务未上市)</p>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside mt-2 space-y-1 text-sm">
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<li><strong>优势:</strong> 化工平台型公司，成本控制能力极强，掌握光气化核心技术。</li>
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<li><strong>逻辑:</strong> 规划的30万吨/年项目(预计2027年投产)将凭借成本优势对现有格局构成严重威胁，加剧行业长期竞争。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 催化剂与风险 -->
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<section class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div class="glass-card p-8">
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<h2 class="fui-title text-2xl font-bold text-indigo-300 mb-6">关键催化剂与未来路径</h2>
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<h3 class="fui-title font-semibold text-lg text-purple-300 mb-2">近期催化剂 (未来3-6个月)</h3>
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<ul class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-2 text-sm">
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<li><strong>科思创官方复产时间表：</strong>决定行情持续时间的核心变量。</li>
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<li><strong>国内装置复产进度：</strong>特别是万华福建36万吨产能的回归。</li>
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<li><strong>“金九银十”需求验证：</strong>高价TDI能否被市场接受的关键窗口。</li>
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||
</ul>
|
||
<h3 class="fui-title font-semibold text-lg text-purple-300 mt-6 mb-2">长期发展路径</h3>
|
||
<ul class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-2 text-sm">
|
||
<li><strong>短期(2025 Q3-Q4):</strong> 价格高位震荡，中国出口套利窗口打开。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>中期(2026):</strong> 供给恢复，价格回落，但中枢可能高于2024年低点。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>长期(2027+):</strong> 华鲁恒升等新产能投产，行业进入新一轮成本竞争。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="fui-title text-2xl font-bold text-rose-400 mb-6">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-3">
|
||
<li><strong class="text-red-300">成本传导风险 (最大风险):</strong> 下游对高价TDI接受度存疑，若无法顺利传导，将导致订单减少，即“需求反噬”。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-amber-300">需求不及预期:</strong> 全球宏观经济下行，特别是房地产周期走弱，将长期压制终端需求。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-yellow-300">竞争加剧风险:</strong> 华鲁恒升等新玩家进入，将打破现有供需平衡，导致价格中枢下移。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-cyan-300">信息交叉验证风险:</strong> 2024年的“过剩”论与2025年7月的“短缺”论形成鲜明矛盾，揭示了行业的高度周期性和事件驱动性。当前的“短缺”是暂时的，而“过剩”的潜在压力是长期的。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 原始数据摘要 -->
|
||
<section class="glass-card p-8" x-data="{ open: '' }">
|
||
<h2 class="fui-title text-2xl font-bold text-indigo-300 mb-4">原始数据摘要</h2>
|
||
<div class="join join-vertical w-full">
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-arrow join-item border border-base-300/50 bg-base-200/20">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="my-accordion-4" value="news" @click="open = (open === 'news' ? '' : 'news')" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-purple-300">新闻数据精粹</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 p-4 text-sm">
|
||
<li><strong>价格动态:</strong> 7月22日，国内TDI均价1.625万元/吨，单日涨2.04%，7月内上涨已超4000元/吨。华北某大厂7月打款价上调至20000元/吨。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>供给端事件:</strong>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>科思创(德国, 30万吨):</strong> 7月16日宣布不可抗力，因氯气断供，预计停产6-12个月。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>万华(匈牙利, 25万吨):</strong> 7月23日开始检修30天。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>三井化学(日本, 5万吨):</strong> 7月27日发生泄漏，宣布不可抗力。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>国内检修:</strong> 万华福建(36万吨)、新疆巨力(20-25万吨)等亦在检修。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li><strong>市场分析:</strong> 行业库存处于历史低位 (6月仅2.2万吨)。供应持续偏紧，看涨情绪明显。2025年1-5月出口量同比上涨83.22%。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>公司信息:</strong> 万华化学TDI产能全球第一(111万吨)，成本优势明显。沧州大化业绩弹性高。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-arrow join-item border border-base-300/50 bg-base-200/20">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="my-accordion-4" value="roadshow" @click="open = (open === 'roadshow' ? '' : 'roadshow')" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-purple-300">路演纪要精华</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 p-4 text-sm">
|
||
<li><strong>2025-07-20/30:</strong> 核心议题为科思创事件。分析师强调供给冲击下的涨价确定性，预计国内价格冲高至1.8万元/吨，欧洲达3500欧元/吨。万华出厂价已调至18500元，8月新盘报2万元。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>2025-07-19:</strong> 全球有效产能减少35%，欧洲供应缺口达35-40万吨。中国产能占比50%，将主导全球供应。当前价格下，万华等头部企业吨利润达2000-5000元。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>2024-05-13/11-10:</strong> 事件发生前，市场普遍认为TDI行业中长期供过于求，价格承压。万华等国内企业扩产被视为主要压力来源。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-arrow join-item border border-base-300/50 bg-base-200/20">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="my-accordion-4" value="research" @click="open = (open === 'research' ? '' : 'research')" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-purple-300">研报核心观点</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 p-4 text-sm">
|
||
<li><strong>价格与价差:</strong> 2025年6月9日报告期，TDI综合价格12,650元/吨，环比下跌0.4%。(注：此为事件前数据)</li>
|
||
<li><strong>供需格局:</strong> 报告期内（6月），国内下游需求疲软，但出口需求强劲 (4月出口同比+60.2%)。北方大厂福建36万吨装置于6月5日开始检修。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>公司动态:</strong> 万华化学被视为全球TDI龙头，产能占比33%。华鲁恒升规划建设30万吨/年TDI项目，标志着国内龙头开始在TDI市场“内卷”。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>风险提示:</strong> 需求不及预期、成本波动、新产能投放加剧竞争是主要风险。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 结论与投资启示 -->
|
||
<section class="glow-border">
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="fui-title text-2xl font-bold text-indigo-300 mb-4">综合结论与投资启示</h2>
|
||
<p class="mb-4">TDI概念目前明确处于由供给侧“黑天鹅”引爆的<strong class="text-purple-300">主题炒作和基本面共振阶段</strong>。短期（未来2-3个季度）基本面逻辑（量价齐升）极其强劲，但其持续性完全依赖于供给端扰动的时长。一旦供给恢复，而需求未有根本性改善，行业将重回基本面驱动的下行或平衡周期。</p>
|
||
<p class="mb-4">最具投资价值的环节是<strong class="text-rose-300">中游的TDI生产商</strong>。对于追求高弹性的投资者，<strong class="text-cyan-300">沧州大化</strong>是首选；对于偏好稳健和龙头地位的投资者，<strong class="text-cyan-300">万华化学</strong>是核心选择。</p>
|
||
<h3 class="fui-title font-semibold text-lg text-purple-300 mt-6 mb-2">需重点跟踪的关键指标</h3>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-sm">
|
||
<li><strong>供给端 (最核心):</strong> 科思创德国工厂的每周/每月修复进展公告。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>价格端:</strong> 华东及欧洲TDI现货周度价格。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>需求端:</strong> 中国TDI月度出口量及下游开工率。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>库存端:</strong> 国内周度库存数据 (快速累积是行情见顶的强烈预警)。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 核心标的分析 -->
|
||
<section>
|
||
<h2 class="fui-title text-3xl font-bold text-center text-indigo-300 mb-8">核心标的分析</h2>
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-4 sm:p-8 overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<h3 class="fui-title text-xl font-semibold text-purple-300 mb-4">TDI核心生产企业</h3>
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑</th>
|
||
<th>信源</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>万华化学</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600309" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">600309</a></td>
|
||
<td>A股第一；TDI总产能144万吨/年（现有111万吨/年+33万吨/年预计2025年5月投产）</td>
|
||
<td><span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">研报</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>沧州大化</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600230" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">600230</a></td>
|
||
<td>A股第二；TDI产能16万吨，约占国内产能的10%</td>
|
||
<td><span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">研报</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>东方盛虹</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000301" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">000301</a></td>
|
||
<td>控股子公司斯尔邦的甲苯二异氰酸酯（TDI）中试技术开发项目环境影响报告书正式批复</td>
|
||
<td><span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">年报</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
<h3 class="fui-title text-xl font-semibold text-purple-300 mt-8 mb-4">TDI事件相关概念股涨幅分析</h3>
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>交易日期</th>
|
||
<th>涨幅</th>
|
||
<th>上涨原因分析</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>华峰化学</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002064" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">002064</a></td>
|
||
<td>2025-07-21</td>
|
||
<td><span class="font-bold text-green-400">6.40%</span></td>
|
||
<td class="text-xs leading-5">核心原因是TDI市场价格大幅上涨及供需格局紧张导致的行业景气度提升。作为化工板块的一员，受益于TDI价格上涨带来的业绩预期改善，同时叠加了市场情绪向好和前期滞涨的补涨需求。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>美思德</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603041" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">603041</a></td>
|
||
<td>2025-07-18</td>
|
||
<td><span class="font-bold text-green-400">5.09%</span></td>
|
||
<td class="text-xs leading-5">直接催化剂为科思创德国TDI工厂不可抗力事件，导致全球TDI供应紧张，价格大涨。作为聚氨酯产业链上的企业，受益于行业景气度提升，上涨可能更多是受到行业整体情绪的推动。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>沈阳化工</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000698" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">000698</a></td>
|
||
<td>2025-07-18</td>
|
||
<td><span class="font-bold text-red-400">10.05%</span></td>
|
||
<td class="text-xs leading-5">主因公司半年度业绩预告超预期（净利同比+350%~+400%），叠加当日TDI涨价带动化工原料板块整体大涨共振。公司具备TDI产能，直接受益涨价预期。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>长华化学</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301518" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">301518</a></td>
|
||
<td>2025-08-07</td>
|
||
<td><span class="font-bold text-green-400">6.67%</span></td>
|
||
<td class="text-xs leading-5">TDI供应紧张引发聚氨酯产业链反应，作为上游原料聚醚的生产商，可能受益于产品价格上涨预期。同时公司在二氧化碳聚醚项目上的技术创新获得市场关注。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>氯碱化工</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600618" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">600618</a></td>
|
||
<td>2025-07-18</td>
|
||
<td><span class="font-bold text-green-400">5.19%</span></td>
|
||
<td class="text-xs leading-5">受益于TDI、有机硅等多个化工产品价格上涨带来的行业整体景气度提升，以及供给端扰动事件（科思创不可抗力）影响。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<footer class="text-center py-8 mt-12 text-xs text-slate-600">
|
||
<p>北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研”</p>
|
||
<p>报告生成时间: <span id="generation-time"></span></p>
|
||
<p class="mt-2">免责声明：本报告由人工智能基于公开数据分析生成，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。</p>
|
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|
||
priceChart.resize();
|
||
outageChart.resize();
|
||
});
|
||
});
|
||
</script>
|
||
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html> |