660 lines
35 KiB
HTML
660 lines
35 KiB
HTML
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="dark">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>锂电池隔膜概念深度解析 - 周期反转拐点</title>
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<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.6.0/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/font-awesome/6.5.1/css/all.min.css">
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<script>
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tailwind.config = {
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theme: {
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extend: {
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colors: {
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primary: '#00d4ff',
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secondary: '#ff00ff',
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accent: '#00ff88',
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dark: '#0a0e27',
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darker: '#050817'
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},
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fontFamily: {
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sans: ['Inter', 'system-ui', 'sans-serif']
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}
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}
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}
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}
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</script>
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<style>
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@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:wght@300;400;500;600;700&display=swap');
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body {
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, #050817 0%, #0a0e27 100%);
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overflow-x: hidden;
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}
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.hero-gradient {
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, #00d4ff 0%, #ff00ff 50%, #00ff88 100%);
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-webkit-background-clip: text;
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-webkit-text-fill-color: transparent;
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background-clip: text;
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}
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.card-hover {
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transition: all 0.3s cubic-bezier(0.4, 0, 0.2, 1);
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border: 1px solid rgba(0, 212, 255, 0.1);
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}
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.card-hover:hover {
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transform: translateY(-8px);
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border-color: rgba(0, 212, 255, 0.3);
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box-shadow: 0 20px 40px rgba(0, 212, 255, 0.15);
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}
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.timeline-item::before {
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content: '';
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position: absolute;
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left: -6px;
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top: 50%;
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transform: translateY(-50%);
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width: 12px;
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height: 12px;
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border-radius: 50%;
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background: #00d4ff;
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box-shadow: 0 0 20px #00d4ff;
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}
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.timeline-line {
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background: linear-gradient(to bottom, #00d4ff, #ff00ff);
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}
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.badge-glow {
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box-shadow: 0 0 15px currentColor;
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}
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.table-row-hover:hover {
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background: rgba(0, 212, 255, 0.05);
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transform: scale(1.01);
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}
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@keyframes pulse-glow {
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0%, 100% { box-shadow: 0 0 20px rgba(0, 212, 255, 0.5); }
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50% { box-shadow: 0 0 30px rgba(0, 212, 255, 0.8); }
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}
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.pulse-glow {
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animation: pulse-glow 2s infinite;
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}
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.mobile-stack {
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display: none;
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}
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@media (max-width: 768px) {
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.desktop-table { display: none; }
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.mobile-stack { display: block; }
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}
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.metric-card {
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, rgba(0, 212, 255, 0.1) 0%, rgba(255, 0, 255, 0.1) 100%);
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border: 1px solid rgba(0, 212, 255, 0.2);
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="bg-darker text-white font-sans">
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<!-- 导航栏 -->
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<nav class="fixed top-0 w-full z-50 bg-dark/90 backdrop-blur-md border-b border-primary/20">
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<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto px-4 sm:px-6 lg:px-8">
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<div class="flex items-center justify-between h-16">
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<div class="flex items-center space-x-2">
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<i class="fas fa-layer-group text-2xl text-primary"></i>
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<span class="text-xl font-bold hero-gradient">隔膜概念</span>
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</div>
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<div class="hidden md:flex space-x-6 text-sm">
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<a href="#overview" class="hover:text-primary transition-colors">核心逻辑</a>
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<a href="#timeline" class="hover:text-primary transition-colors">时间轴</a>
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<a href="#stocks" class="hover:text-primary transition-colors">核心标的</a>
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<a href="#risk" class="hover:text-primary transition-colors">风险分析</a>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</nav>
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<!-- Hero区域 -->
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<section class="pt-24 pb-16 px-4 sm:px-6 lg:px-8">
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<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto text-center">
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<h1 class="text-4xl sm:text-6xl font-bold mb-6">
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<span class="hero-gradient">锂电池隔膜</span>
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<br/>周期反转拐点
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</h1>
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<p class="text-lg sm:text-xl text-gray-300 mb-8 max-w-4xl mx-auto leading-relaxed">
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供给刚性超预期，储能爆发超预期，政策反内卷超预期——三重共振驱动下，隔膜行业正从周期底部走向价格拐点，2025-2026年头部企业盈利修复弹性巨大。
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</p>
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<div class="flex flex-wrap justify-center gap-4 mb-12">
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<div class="badge badge-primary badge-glow px-4 py-2">储能切湿法</div>
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<div class="badge badge-secondary badge-glow px-4 py-2">产能投放尾声</div>
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<div class="badge badge-accent badge-glow px-4 py-2">价格联盟形成</div>
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<div class="badge badge-primary badge-glow px-4 py-2">5μm渗透加速</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 核心观点摘要 -->
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<section id="overview" class="py-16 px-4 sm:px-6 lg:px-8">
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<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto">
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<div class="card card-hover bg-dark rounded-2xl p-8 mb-12">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-6 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-bullseye text-primary mr-3"></i>
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核心观点摘要
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</h2>
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<div class="bg-gradient-to-r from-primary/10 to-secondary/10 rounded-xl p-6 border border-primary/20">
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<p class="text-lg leading-relaxed">
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当前隔膜行业正处于<strong class="text-primary">"周期反转拐点"</strong>，由三重逻辑共振驱动：
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<br/><br/>
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① <strong class="text-secondary">供给端产能投放进入尾声</strong>，2026年新增供给断崖式收缩；
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<br/>
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② <strong class="text-accent">需求端储能市场爆发式增长</strong>（同比+106%）彻底扭转供需格局，湿法隔膜供需紧平衡；
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<br/>
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③ <strong class="text-primary">政策"反内卷"与行业自律形成价格联盟</strong>，龙头议价能力显著提升。
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<br/><br/>
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市场当前对固态电池冲击存在过度担忧，而低估了设备壁垒、海外布局及高端涂覆带来的价值重构，<strong class="text-accent">2025-2026年头部企业盈利修复弹性巨大</strong>。
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</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 时间轴 -->
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<section id="timeline" class="py-16 px-4 sm:px-6 lg:px-8">
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<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-12 text-center">
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<span class="hero-gradient">概念事件时间轴</span>
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</h2>
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<div class="relative">
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<div class="timeline-line absolute left-4 md:left-1/2 transform md:-translate-x-1/2 w-1 h-full"></div>
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<div class="space-y-12">
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<div class="timeline-item relative flex flex-col md:flex-row items-center">
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<div class="bg-dark rounded-xl p-6 card-hover ml-8 md:ml-0 md:w-5/12">
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<div class="text-sm text-primary mb-2">2024年2月</div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-2">底部信号初现</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300">CT电新率先提出"隔膜价格底部，行业有望见底反转"，指出湿法价格企稳、干法已涨价30%。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="hidden md:block w-2/12"></div>
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<div class="hidden md:block w-5/12"></div>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item relative flex flex-col md:flex-row items-center">
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<div class="hidden md:block w-5/12"></div>
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<div class="hidden md:block w-2/12"></div>
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<div class="bg-dark rounded-xl p-6 card-hover mr-8 md:mr-0 md:w-5/12">
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<div class="text-sm text-primary mb-2">2024年9-10月</div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-2">涨价落地验证</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300">干法隔膜年内涨幅>30%，8月初第二次提价10%；湿法交付周期紧张，价格涨幅超10%，周期反转强度确认。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item relative flex flex-col md:flex-row items-center">
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<div class="bg-dark rounded-xl p-6 card-hover ml-8 md:ml-0 md:w-5/12">
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<div class="text-sm text-primary mb-2">2024年11月</div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-2">政策护航升级</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300">工信部研究编制"十五五"规划，强调防范低水平重复建设。储能产线全面切换湿法，5μm渗透率目标提升至15%。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="hidden md:block w-2/12"></div>
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<div class="hidden md:block w-5/12"></div>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item relative flex flex-col md:flex-row items-center">
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<div class="hidden md:block w-5/12"></div>
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<div class="hidden md:block w-2/12"></div>
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<div class="bg-dark rounded-xl p-6 card-hover mr-8 md:mr-0 md:w-5/12">
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<div class="text-sm text-primary mb-2">2025-2026年</div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-2">供需缺口显现</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300">鑫椤锂电预测2026年TOP3产能利用率超95%，行业或迎供需缺口。头部企业开启2026年价格谈判，盈利修复空间大。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 供需格局分析 -->
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<section class="py-16 px-4 sm:px-6 lg:px-8">
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<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-12 text-center">
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<span class="hero-gradient">核心驱动力：三重断裂性改善</span>
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</h2>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-8 mb-12">
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<div class="card card-hover bg-dark rounded-2xl p-6">
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<div class="text-center mb-4">
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<i class="fas fa-industry text-4xl text-primary"></i>
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</div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-center">供给刚性超预期</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-sm text-gray-300">
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<li class="flex items-start"><i class="fas fa-check text-accent mt-1 mr-2"></i>设备依赖进口（东芝/布鲁克纳），交付周期长达1.5-2年</li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><i class="fas fa-check text-accent mt-1 mr-2"></i>良率爬坡至90%需1年以上，二线厂商仅75-80%</li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><i class="fas fa-check text-accent mt-1 mr-2"></i>头部两家产能2025年底收尾，2026年供给断崖式收缩</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="card card-hover bg-dark rounded-2xl p-6">
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<div class="text-center mb-4">
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<i class="fas fa-chart-line text-4xl text-secondary"></i>
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</div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-center">需求结构性爆发</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-sm text-gray-300">
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<li class="flex items-start"><i class="fas fa-check text-accent mt-1 mr-2"></i>储能全面切湿法，同比+106%，单GWh用量提升33%</li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><i class="fas fa-check text-accent mt-1 mr-2"></i>5μm高端隔膜渗透率从5%→15%，单价是普通2-3倍</li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><i class="fas fa-check text-accent mt-1 mr-2"></i>海外价格是国内的2-3倍，恩捷/星源海外工厂投产</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="card card-hover bg-dark rounded-2xl p-6">
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<div class="text-center mb-4">
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<i class="fas fa-shield-alt text-4xl text-accent"></i>
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</div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-center">政策价格联盟</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-sm text-gray-300">
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<li class="flex items-start"><i class="fas fa-check text-accent mt-1 mr-2"></i>协会倡议"以销定产、不打价格战"</li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><i class="fas fa-check text-accent mt-1 mr-2"></i>工信部"十五五"规划防低水平重复建设</li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><i class="fas fa-check text-accent mt-1 mr-2"></i>头部企业TOP2市占率50%+形成价格默契</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 关键数据指标 -->
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-4 gap-6">
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<div class="metric-card rounded-xl p-6 text-center card-hover">
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<div class="text-3xl font-bold text-primary mb-2">300亿平</div>
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<div class="text-sm text-gray-300">2024年全球隔膜出货量</div>
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<div class="text-xs text-accent mt-1">vs 2020年64亿平</div>
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</div>
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<div class="metric-card rounded-xl p-6 text-center card-hover">
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<div class="text-3xl font-bold text-secondary mb-2">95%</div>
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<div class="text-sm text-gray-300">2026年TOP3产能利用率预测</div>
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<div class="text-xs text-accent mt-1">当前已打满</div>
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</div>
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<div class="metric-card rounded-xl p-6 text-center card-hover">
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<div class="text-3xl font-bold text-accent mb-2">30%</div>
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<div class="text-sm text-gray-300">5μm高端隔膜渗透率</div>
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<div class="text-xs text-accent mt-1">2025年目标vs 2024年5%</div>
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</div>
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<div class="metric-card rounded-xl p-6 text-center card-hover">
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<div class="text-3xl font-bold text-primary mb-2">2-3倍</div>
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<div class="text-sm text-gray-300">海外/国内价格倍率</div>
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<div class="text-xs text-accent mt-1">成本差异不大</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 核心公司对比 -->
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<section id="stocks" class="py-16 px-4 sm:px-6 lg:px-8">
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<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-12 text-center">
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<span class="hero-gradient">核心标的深度剖析</span>
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</h2>
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<!-- 桌面端表格 -->
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<div class="desktop-table bg-dark rounded-2xl overflow-hidden card-hover">
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<table class="table w-full">
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<thead class="bg-gradient-to-r from-primary/20 to-secondary/20">
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<tr>
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<th class="text-white font-semibold">公司</th>
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<th class="text-white font-semibold">角色定位</th>
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<th class="text-white font-semibold">核心优势</th>
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<th class="text-white font-semibold">产能/份额</th>
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<th class="text-white font-semibold">2025预计</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr class="table-row-hover">
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<td>
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<div class="flex items-center">
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<div class="badge badge-primary badge-glow mr-2">龙头</div>
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<span class="font-semibold">恩捷股份</span>
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</div>
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</td>
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<td><span class="badge badge-secondary">绝对龙头</span></td>
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<td class="text-sm">设备壁垒+全球专利最多+成本最低+海外布局领先</td>
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<td class="text-sm">
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<div>2025年110亿平</div>
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<div class="text-primary">全球50%</div>
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</td>
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<td class="text-sm">
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<div>22亿利润</div>
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<div class="text-accent">17倍PE</div>
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</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="table-row-hover">
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<td>
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<div class="flex items-center">
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<div class="badge badge-secondary badge-glow mr-2">赶超者</div>
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<span class="font-semibold">星源材质</span>
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</div>
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</td>
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<td><span class="badge badge-accent">追赶者</span></td>
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<td class="text-sm">干法全球第一+固态膜布局领先+全球布局最广</td>
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<td class="text-sm">
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<div>2025年70亿平</div>
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<div class="text-primary">全球21%</div>
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</td>
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<td class="text-sm">
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<div>14亿利润</div>
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<div class="text-accent">13倍PE</div>
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</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="table-row-hover">
|
||
<td>
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="badge badge-accent badge-glow mr-2">二线</div>
|
||
<span class="font-semibold">中材科技</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td><span class="badge badge-primary">稳健二线</span></td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">央企资源+设备多元+客户结构稳定</td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">
|
||
<div>2024年销量19亿平</div>
|
||
<div class="text-primary">湿法13%</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">
|
||
<div>盈利修复滞后</div>
|
||
<div>产能利用率80%</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="table-row-hover">
|
||
<td>
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="badge badge-glow mr-2" style="color: #ff00ff; border-color: #ff00ff;">并购</div>
|
||
<span class="font-semibold">佛塑科技</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td><span class="badge badge-secondary">并购新锐</span></td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">收购金力新能源+切入一线供应链</td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">
|
||
<div>金力16亿平产能</div>
|
||
<div class="text-primary">湿法18%</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">
|
||
<div>协同效应</div>
|
||
<div class="text-accent">估值重塑</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 移动端堆叠卡片 -->
|
||
<div class="mobile-stack space-y-6">
|
||
<div class="card card-hover bg-dark rounded-xl p-6">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center justify-between mb-4">
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold">恩捷股份</h3>
|
||
<div class="badge badge-primary badge-glow">绝对龙头</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-2 gap-4 text-sm">
|
||
<div>产能: 2025年110亿平</div>
|
||
<div>份额: 全球50%</div>
|
||
<div>利润: 22亿</div>
|
||
<div>PE: 17倍</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="card card-hover bg-dark rounded-xl p-6">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center justify-between mb-4">
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold">星源材质</h3>
|
||
<div class="badge badge-secondary badge-glow">赶超者</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-2 gap-4 text-sm">
|
||
<div>产能: 2025年70亿平</div>
|
||
<div>份额: 全球21%</div>
|
||
<div>利润: 14亿</div>
|
||
<div>PE: 13倍</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="card card-hover bg-dark rounded-xl p-6">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center justify-between mb-4">
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold">佛塑科技</h3>
|
||
<div class="badge badge-glow" style="color: #ff00ff; border-color: #ff00ff;">并购</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-2 gap-4 text-sm">
|
||
<div>收购: 金力新能源</div>
|
||
<div>份额: 湿法18%</div>
|
||
<div>潜力: 协同效应</div>
|
||
<div>估值: 重塑</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 股票数据表格 -->
|
||
<section class="py-16 px-4 sm:px-6 lg:px-8">
|
||
<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto">
|
||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-12 text-center">
|
||
<span class="hero-gradient">概念股数据总览</span>
|
||
</h2>
|
||
|
||
<div class="card card-hover bg-dark rounded-2xl overflow-hidden">
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<thead class="bg-gradient-to-r from-primary/20 to-secondary/20">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th class="text-white font-semibold">股票名称</th>
|
||
<th class="text-white font-semibold">角色定位</th>
|
||
<th class="text-white font-semibold">核心数据</th>
|
||
<th class="text-white font-semibold">投资逻辑</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody id="stockTable">
|
||
<!-- 动态生成股票数据 -->
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 催化与风险 -->
|
||
<section id="risk" class="py-16 px-4 sm:px-6 lg:px-8">
|
||
<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto">
|
||
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
|
||
<!-- 催化剂 -->
|
||
<div class="card card-hover bg-dark rounded-2xl p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-rocket text-secondary mr-3"></i>
|
||
关键催化剂
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<div class="space-y-4">
|
||
<div class="bg-secondary/10 rounded-lg p-4 border border-secondary/20">
|
||
<div class="text-sm text-secondary mb-1">2025年1月</div>
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold mb-2">2026年价格谈判落地</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">若涨价幅度达15-20%，将直接验证周期反转强度，触发估值修复。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-primary/10 rounded-lg p-4 border border-primary/20">
|
||
<div class="text-sm text-primary mb-1">2025年Q1</div>
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold mb-2">储能出货量持续超预期</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">若Q1延续高增（同比+80%以上），强化"储能切湿法"逻辑。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-accent/10 rounded-lg p-4 border border-accent/20">
|
||
<div class="text-sm text-accent mb-1">2025年Q2</div>
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold mb-2">5μm渗透率加速提升</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">若宁德/比亚迪大规模采用，单平利润提升50-100%。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 风险分析 -->
|
||
<div class="card card-hover bg-dark rounded-2xl p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle text-red-400 mr-3"></i>
|
||
潜在风险
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<div class="space-y-4">
|
||
<div class="bg-red-500/10 rounded-lg p-4 border border-red-500/20">
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-red-400 mb-2">技术风险：固态电池路径不确定</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">若全固态电池2027年后量产，传统隔膜需求或萎缩30-50%。但恩捷/星源已通过骨架膜布局对冲。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-yellow-500/10 rounded-lg p-4 border border-yellow-500/20">
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-yellow-400 mb-2">商业风险：价格战反复</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">行业自律缺乏强制约束力，若头部企业为抢占份额突然降价，价格体系可能崩溃。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-blue-500/10 rounded-lg p-4 border border-blue-500/20">
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-blue-400 mb-2">政策风险：IRA细则变化</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">恩捷美国工厂享受IRA补贴，2025年美国总统大选后政策存在变数。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 跟踪指标与投资策略 -->
|
||
<section class="py-16 px-4 sm:px-6 lg:px-8">
|
||
<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto">
|
||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-12 text-center">
|
||
<span class="hero-gradient">投资策略框架</span>
|
||
</h2>
|
||
|
||
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-8 mb-12">
|
||
<div class="card card-hover bg-dark rounded-2xl p-6 text-center">
|
||
<div class="text-2xl font-bold text-primary mb-2">左侧布局期</div>
|
||
<div class="text-sm text-gray-300 mb-4">当前-2025年Q1</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">在2026年价格谈判落地前，逢低建仓恩捷股份、星源材质，仓位上限30%。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="card card-hover bg-dark rounded-2xl p-6 text-center">
|
||
<div class="text-2xl font-bold text-secondary mb-2">右侧加仓期</div>
|
||
<div class="text-sm text-gray-300 mb-4">2025年Q2-Q3</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">若5μm渗透率突破15%、储能维持高增，加仓至50%仓位。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="card card-hover bg-dark rounded-2xl p-6 text-center">
|
||
<div class="text-2xl font-bold text-accent mb-2">兑现退出期</div>
|
||
<div class="text-sm text-gray-300 mb-4">2025年Q4-2026年</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">当单平利润恢复至0.3元、PE降至10倍以下时，逐步兑现收益。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 关键跟踪指标卡片 -->
|
||
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-4 gap-6">
|
||
<div class="metric-card rounded-xl p-4 text-center card-hover pulse-glow">
|
||
<div class="text-lg font-bold text-primary mb-1">价格指标</div>
|
||
<div class="text-sm text-gray-300">7μm湿法基膜均价</div>
|
||
<div class="text-accent mt-2">目标: 1.0元/平</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="metric-card rounded-xl p-4 text-center card-hover">
|
||
<div class="text-lg font-bold text-secondary mb-1">盈利指标</div>
|
||
<div class="text-sm text-gray-300">恩捷单平净利润</div>
|
||
<div class="text-accent mt-2">目标: 0.25元</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="metric-card rounded-xl p-4 text-center card-hover">
|
||
<div class="text-lg font-bold text-accent mb-1">产能指标</div>
|
||
<div class="text-sm text-gray-300">TOP3产能利用率</div>
|
||
<div class="text-accent mt-2">目标: >95%</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="metric-card rounded-xl p-4 text-center card-hover">
|
||
<div class="text-lg font-bold text-primary mb-1">需求指标</div>
|
||
<div class="text-sm text-gray-300">储能出货量同比</div>
|
||
<div class="text-accent mt-2">目标: >60%</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 总结 -->
|
||
<section class="py-16 px-4 sm:px-6 lg:px-8">
|
||
<div class="max-w-4xl mx-auto">
|
||
<div class="card card-hover bg-gradient-to-r from-primary/10 to-secondary/10 rounded-2xl p-8 border border-primary/20">
|
||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-6 text-center">
|
||
<span class="hero-gradient">最终结论</span>
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<p class="text-lg leading-relaxed mb-6">
|
||
隔膜是2025年新能源材料中<strong class="text-accent">供需格局最优、涨价确定性最强、估值修复空间最大</strong>的细分赛道。核心矛盾已从"产能过剩"转向"优质产能不足"，龙头将进入长达2-3年的盈利上行周期。
|
||
</p>
|
||
<div class="text-center">
|
||
<div class="badge badge-primary badge-glow px-6 py-3 text-lg">把握三重共振窗口期</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-6">
|
||
风险提示：固态电池技术路线不确定性、价格联盟脆弱性、IRA政策变化、新进入者搅局。
|
||
</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 页脚 -->
|
||
<footer class="py-12 px-4 sm:px-6 lg:px-8 border-t border-primary/10">
|
||
<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto text-center">
|
||
<p class="text-gray-400 text-sm">
|
||
本报告基于公开信息整理，不构成投资建议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。
|
||
</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
// 股票数据
|
||
const stockData = [
|
||
{ stock: '恩捷股份', role: '绝对龙头', data: '2025年110亿平，全球50%', reason: '隔膜市占率A股第一，设备壁垒最深，海外布局领先' },
|
||
{ stock: '星源材质', role: '赶超者', data: '2025年70亿平，全球21%', reason: '干法全球第一，固态膜布局领先，全球布局最广' },
|
||
{ stock: '中材科技', role: '稳健二线', data: '2024年销量19亿平，湿法13%', reason: '央企资源，设备多元，客户结构稳定' },
|
||
{ stock: '璞泰来', role: '涂覆龙头', data: '2025年涂覆加工量73.8亿平', reason: '涂覆隔膜产能第一，在线涂覆技术领先' },
|
||
{ stock: '欧克科技', role: '设备突破', data: '新签1.76亿订单，占营收40.5%', reason: '国产设备替代逻辑，交付周期仅半年' },
|
||
{ stock: '佛塑科技', role: '并购新锐', data: '收购金力新能源，湿法18%', reason: '收购行业前三，估值重塑空间大' },
|
||
{ stock: '联泓新科', role: '材料上游', data: 'UHMWPE树脂供应商', reason: '锂电隔膜材料上游，受益于需求增长' },
|
||
{ stock: '东风股份', role: '新进者', data: '规划16亿平产能', reason: '化工巨头跨界，需关注技术消化能力' }
|
||
];
|
||
|
||
// 生成表格
|
||
const tbody = document.getElementById('stockTable');
|
||
stockData.forEach(item => {
|
||
const row = document.createElement('tr');
|
||
row.className = 'table-row-hover';
|
||
row.innerHTML = `
|
||
<td class="font-semibold">${item.stock}</td>
|
||
<td><span class="badge badge-sm">${item.role}</span></td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">${item.data}</td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">${item.reason}</td>
|
||
`;
|
||
tbody.appendChild(row);
|
||
});
|
||
|
||
// 平滑滚动
|
||
document.querySelectorAll('a[href^="#"]').forEach(anchor => {
|
||
anchor.addEventListener('click', function (e) {
|
||
e.preventDefault();
|
||
const target = document.querySelector(this.getAttribute('href'));
|
||
if (target) {
|
||
target.scrollIntoView({
|
||
behavior: 'smooth',
|
||
block: 'start'
|
||
});
|
||
}
|
||
});
|
||
});
|
||
|
||
// 滚动动画
|
||
const observerOptions = {
|
||
threshold: 0.1,
|
||
rootMargin: '0px 0px -50px 0px'
|
||
};
|
||
|
||
const observer = new IntersectionObserver((entries) => {
|
||
entries.forEach(entry => {
|
||
if (entry.isIntersecting) {
|
||
entry.target.style.opacity = '1';
|
||
entry.target.style.transform = 'translateY(0)';
|
||
}
|
||
});
|
||
}, observerOptions);
|
||
|
||
document.querySelectorAll('.card-hover').forEach(el => {
|
||
el.style.opacity = '0';
|
||
el.style.transform = 'translateY(20px)';
|
||
el.style.transition = 'opacity 0.6s ease, transform 0.6s ease';
|
||
observer.observe(el);
|
||
});
|
||
</script>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html>
|