636 lines
27 KiB
HTML
636 lines
27 KiB
HTML
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<title>小米算力AI互联 - 行业深度分析</title>
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<body>
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<div id="particles-js" class="particle-bg"></div>
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<div class="container mx-auto px-4 py-8 max-w-6xl">
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<!-- 标题部分 -->
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<div class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-5xl font-bold mb-4 gradient-text">小米算力AI互联</h1>
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<p class="text-xl text-slate-300">从主题炒作到订单兑现+政策共振的深度分析</p>
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</div>
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<!-- 时间轴部分 -->
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<div class="card-custom rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-blue-400">
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<i class="fas fa-clock mr-2"></i>概念发展时间轴 (2023Q4-2025H2)
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</h2>
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<div class="timeline-container relative">
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<div class="timeline-line absolute left-8 top-0 bottom-0"></div>
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<div class="flex-1">
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<div class="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-4">
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<span class="text-blue-400 font-semibold">2023-08</span>
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<p class="mt-1">小米开源<strong>13亿参数MiLM端侧大模型</strong>，首次验证端侧推理能力。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="timeline-dot mt-1.5 mr-4"></div>
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<div class="flex-1">
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<div class="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-4">
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<span class="text-blue-400 font-semibold">2024-04</span>
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<p class="mt-1">小米AI团队扩至<strong>3000+人</strong>，雷军宣布"All in AI"。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="timeline-dot mt-1.5 mr-4"></div>
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<div class="flex-1">
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<div class="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-4">
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<span class="text-blue-400 font-semibold">2024-11</span>
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<p class="mt-1">与金山云签订<strong>2025-2027年关联交易上限23/31/40亿元</strong>（年化CAGR≈32%）。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="timeline-dot mt-1.5 mr-4"></div>
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<div class="flex-1">
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<div class="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-4">
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<span class="text-blue-400 font-semibold">2024-12</span>
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<p class="mt-1">市场确认小米正搭建<strong>万卡GPU集群</strong>（预计8.1 EFLOPS，需100-200万张GPU）。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="timeline-dot mt-1.5 mr-4"></div>
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<div class="flex-1">
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<div class="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-4">
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<span class="text-blue-400 font-semibold">2025-03</span>
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<p class="mt-1">工信部《算力互联互通行动计划》明确<strong>2028年全国公共算力标准化互联</strong>。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="timeline-dot mt-1.5 mr-4"></div>
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<div class="flex-1">
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<div class="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-4">
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<span class="text-blue-400 font-semibold">2025-06</span>
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<p class="mt-1">小米AI眼镜发布，搭载高通AR1芯片，实现端-云协同交互。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 催化事件 -->
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<div class="card-custom rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-purple-400">
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<i class="fas fa-rocket mr-2"></i>催化事件
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</h2>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-4">
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<div class="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-4 border-l-4 border-blue-500">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-blue-400 mb-2">政策端</h3>
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<p class="text-sm">工信部2025-05-30文件要求2026年初步建成算力互联互通平台，2028年全面标准化。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-4 border-l-4 border-purple-500">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-purple-400 mb-2">产业端</h3>
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<p class="text-sm">OpenAI 2025-02宣布开发AI终端，倒逼小米加速端云协同。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-4 border-l-4 border-green-500">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-green-400 mb-2">公司端</h3>
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<p class="text-sm">金山云2025-02披露已交付<strong>4144 PFLOPS算力</strong>，小米占其AI收入>50%。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心观点 -->
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<div class="card-custom rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-green-400">
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<i class="fas fa-lightbulb mr-2"></i>核心观点摘要
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</h2>
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<div class="bg-gradient-to-r from-blue-900/30 to-purple-900/30 rounded-lg p-6 border border-blue-500/30">
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<p class="text-lg leading-relaxed">
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"小米算力AI互联"已从主题炒作进入<strong class="text-blue-400">订单兑现+政策共振</strong>阶段：
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</p>
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<div class="mt-4 space-y-3">
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-circle text-blue-400 text-xs mt-2 mr-3"></i>
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<div>
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<span class="font-semibold text-blue-400">短期（6-12个月）</span>：
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万卡集群投运+AI眼镜量产将带来<strong>金山云、比亚迪电子</strong>等供应链业绩弹性。
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-circle text-purple-400 text-xs mt-2 mr-3"></i>
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<div>
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<span class="font-semibold text-purple-400">长期（2-3年）</span>：
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小米凭"端（1.2亿手机+9亿IoT设备）-云（金山云中立算力）-车（35万辆SU7）"闭环，有望复制特斯拉"硬件引流+软件变现"路径，估值体系从PE向PS切换。
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心驱动力 -->
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<div class="card-custom rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-yellow-400">
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<i class="fas fa-cogs mr-2"></i>核心驱动力与市场认知分析
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</h2>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 mb-6">
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-blue-400">需求端：三大场景AI算力需求爆发</h3>
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<div class="space-y-3">
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<div class="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-4">
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<div class="flex items-center justify-between mb-2">
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<span class="font-semibold">手机</span>
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<span class="text-blue-400 text-sm">1.2亿存量设备</span>
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</div>
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<p class="text-sm">单机算力需求 <strong class="text-blue-400">>30 TOPS</strong>（骁龙8 Gen3实测）</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-4">
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<div class="flex items-center justify-between mb-2">
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<span class="font-semibold">汽车</span>
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<span class="text-purple-400 text-sm">SU7城市NOA</span>
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</div>
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<p class="text-sm">需 <strong class="text-purple-400">>500 TOPS</strong>（双Orin-X方案），2025年30万辆车对应<strong>1.5万PFLOPS</strong>年需求</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-4">
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<div class="flex items-center justify-between mb-2">
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<span class="font-semibold">IoT</span>
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<span class="text-green-400 text-sm">9亿设备</span>
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</div>
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<p class="text-sm">按<strong>0.1 PFLOPS/千设备</strong>估算，年需求<strong>900 PFLOPS</strong></p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-purple-400">供给端：金山云作为"小米系唯一中立云"</h3>
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<div class="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-4 h-full">
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div>
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<div class="flex justify-between mb-1">
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<span>2024年AI收入</span>
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<span class="text-blue-400 font-bold">10.6亿元</span>
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</div>
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<div class="flex justify-between text-sm text-slate-400">
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<span>占公有云比例</span>
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<span>30%</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<div class="flex justify-between mb-1">
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<span>毛利率变化</span>
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<span class="text-green-400 font-bold">16% → 30%</span>
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</div>
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<div class="text-sm text-slate-400">宁夏/甘肃低成本IDC</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div class="bg-red-900/20 rounded-lg p-4 border border-red-500/30">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-red-400 mb-2">
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<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle mr-2"></i>市场高估
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</h4>
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<p>市场认为万卡集群=训练需求，实际<strong>70%算力用于推理</strong>（路演数据：金山云Q3推理收入占比68%）。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-green-900/20 rounded-lg p-4 border border-green-500/30">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-green-400 mb-2">
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<i class="fas fa-eye-slash mr-2"></i>市场低估
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</h4>
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<p>小米AI眼镜备货仅30万台，但<strong>ASP 1499元+30%净利率</strong>可贡献<strong>1.35亿元利润</strong>（市场未计入）。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 关键催化剂 -->
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<div class="card-custom rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-indigo-400">
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<i class="fas fa-chart-line mr-2"></i>关键催化剂与未来发展路径
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</h2>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="w-full text-sm">
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<thead>
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<tr class="border-b border-slate-700">
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<th class="text-left py-3 px-4 text-indigo-400">时间</th>
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<th class="text-left py-3 px-4 text-indigo-400">催化剂</th>
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<th class="text-left py-3 px-4 text-indigo-400">影响标的</th>
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<th class="text-left py-3 px-4 text-indigo-400">验证指标</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr class="border-b border-slate-800">
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<td class="py-3 px-4">2025Q3</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">小米AI眼镜首销</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">歌尔股份（组装）、舜宇光学（摄像头）</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">首月销量>10万台</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="border-b border-slate-800">
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<td class="py-3 px-4">2025Q4</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">万卡集群点亮</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">金山云、比亚迪电子（服务器ODM）</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">金山云AI收入环比+50%</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">2026H1</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">工信部算力互联标准落地</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">光模块（中际旭创）、AEC（兆龙互联）</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">800G光模块招标份额>30%</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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</div>
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<div class="mt-6 bg-gradient-to-r from-indigo-900/30 to-purple-900/30 rounded-lg p-4 border border-indigo-500/30">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-indigo-400 mb-2">长期路径</h4>
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<p>"端侧轻量模型→云端万卡训练→车/家场景推理"三级跳，2027年小米AI收入占比有望超<strong class="text-indigo-400">20%</strong>（当前<5%）。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 产业链分析 -->
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<div class="card-custom rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-cyan-400">
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<i class="fas fa-network-wired mr-2"></i>产业链与核心公司深度剖析
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</h2>
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<div class="mb-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-cyan-400">产业链图谱</h3>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-4">
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<div class="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-4 text-center">
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<div class="text-cyan-400 font-bold mb-2">上游</div>
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<div class="text-sm space-y-1">
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<div>GPU（英伟达H200→GB300）</div>
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<div>光芯片（源杰科技）</div>
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<div>液冷（英维克）</div>
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</div>
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</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-4 text-center">
|
||
<div class="text-blue-400 font-bold mb-2">中游</div>
|
||
<div class="text-sm space-y-1">
|
||
<div>IDC（金山云）</div>
|
||
<div>服务器ODM（比亚迪电子）</div>
|
||
<div>光模块（中际旭创）</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-4 text-center">
|
||
<div class="text-purple-400 font-bold mb-2">下游</div>
|
||
<div class="text-sm space-y-1">
|
||
<div>终端品牌（小米）</div>
|
||
<div>应用（AI眼镜、SU7智驾）</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-cyan-400">核心玩家对比</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="w-full text-sm">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-700">
|
||
<th class="text-left py-3 px-4 text-cyan-400">公司</th>
|
||
<th class="text-left py-3 px-4 text-cyan-400">角色</th>
|
||
<th class="text-left py-3 px-4 text-cyan-400">2025E收入弹性</th>
|
||
<th class="text-left py-3 px-4 text-cyan-400">风险点</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-800">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-bold text-blue-400">金山云</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">小米算力总包</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">AI收入<strong>15亿元</strong>（+50% YoY）</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">关联交易占比过高（70%）</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-800">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-bold text-purple-400">比亚迪电子</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">服务器ODM</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">小米订单<strong>30-50亿元</strong>（2025E）</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">苹果中框业务拖累毛利率</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-bold text-green-400">歌尔股份</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">AI眼镜组装</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">单机净利<strong>150元</strong>×30万台=4500万</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">Meta竞争导致产能分流</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 风险分析 -->
|
||
<div class="card-custom rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-red-400">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-exclamation-circle mr-2"></i>潜在风险与挑战
|
||
</h2>
|
||
|
||
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-4">
|
||
<div class="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-4 border-l-4 border-red-500">
|
||
<h3 class="font-bold text-red-400 mb-2">技术风险</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">GB300功耗<strong>1.2kW/卡</strong>（+20%），液冷渗透率不足可能导致集群PUE>1.3。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-4 border-l-4 border-orange-500">
|
||
<h3 class="font-bold text-orange-400 mb-2">商业化风险</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">AI眼镜<strong>1499元定价</strong>高于Ray-Ban Meta（299美元），需验证消费者支付意愿。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-4 border-l-4 border-yellow-500">
|
||
<h3 class="font-bold text-yellow-400 mb-2">政策风险</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">美国对华GPU出口管制若升级，万卡集群或面临<strong>H20替代H200</strong>的性能损失（算力下降50%）。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-4 border-l-4 border-pink-500">
|
||
<h3 class="font-bold text-pink-400 mb-2">信息矛盾</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">路演称小米万卡需<strong>200万张GPU</strong>，但英伟达2025年对华出货指引仅<strong>50万张</strong>，存在<strong>4倍缺口</strong>。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 综合结论 -->
|
||
<div class="card-custom rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-emerald-400">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-check-circle mr-2"></i>综合结论与投资启示
|
||
</h2>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-gradient-to-r from-emerald-900/30 to-teal-900/30 rounded-lg p-6 border border-emerald-500/30 mb-6">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center mb-4">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-flag-checkered text-emerald-400 text-2xl mr-3"></i>
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-emerald-400">阶段判断</h3>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p class="text-lg">处于"政策+订单"双轮驱动的<strong class="text-emerald-400">基本面拐点</strong>，非纯主题炒作。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-emerald-400">投资方向</h3>
|
||
<div class="space-y-3">
|
||
<div class="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-4">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center mb-2">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-server text-blue-400 mr-2"></i>
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-blue-400">算力基建</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">金山云（关联交易高确定性）、比亚迪电子（服务器ODM弹性）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-4">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center mb-2">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-mobile-alt text-purple-400 mr-2"></i>
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-purple-400">端侧硬件</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">歌尔股份（AI眼镜）、舜宇光学（摄像头模组）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-emerald-400">跟踪指标</h3>
|
||
<div class="space-y-3">
|
||
<div class="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-4">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center justify-between mb-2">
|
||
<span class="font-semibold">金山云2025Q2 AI收入</span>
|
||
<span class="text-blue-400 font-bold">>5亿元</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400">验证万卡集群投运</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-4">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center justify-between mb-2">
|
||
<span class="font-semibold">小米AI眼镜2025Q3激活量</span>
|
||
<span class="text-purple-400 font-bold">>20万台</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400">验证C端需求</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 关联股票表格 -->
|
||
<div class="card-custom rounded-xl p-6">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-amber-400">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-chart-bar mr-2"></i>关联股票分析
|
||
</h2>
|
||
|
||
<div class="table-responsive">
|
||
<table class="table w-full text-sm">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-700">
|
||
<th class="text-left py-3 px-4 text-amber-400">股票名称</th>
|
||
<th class="text-left py-3 px-4 text-amber-400">所属领域</th>
|
||
<th class="text-left py-3 px-4 text-amber-400">关联原因</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-800 hover:bg-slate-800/50 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">利通电子</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">IDC</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">利通电子属于IDC行业，与科华数据一同被提及为相关企业</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-800 hover:bg-slate-800/50 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">科华数据</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">IDC</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">科华数据属于IDC行业，与利通电子一同被提及为相关企业</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-800 hover:bg-slate-800/50 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">中际旭创</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">光模块</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">中际旭创是小米和金山云的光模块供应商</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-800 hover:bg-slate-800/50 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">汇绿生态</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">光模块</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">汇绿生态拟收购的钧恒科技为金山云提供光模块相关服务</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-800 hover:bg-slate-800/50 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">移远通信</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">通信模组</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">移远通信是小米汽车第一代及潜在智能通信模组的供应商</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-800 hover:bg-slate-800/50 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">美格智能</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">通信模组</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">美格智能是小米汽车第一代及潜在智能通信模组的供应商</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-800 hover:bg-slate-800/50 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">华测导航</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">卫星定位导航</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">华测导航为小米SU7系列提供P-box卫星定位导航产品的独家供应</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-800 hover:bg-slate-800/50 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">瑞可达</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">连接组件</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">瑞可为小米汽车提供连接器及线束组件</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-800 hover:bg-slate-800/50 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">奕东电子</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">连接组件</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">奕东电子在小米手机FPC业务中占比较高，且小米基金持有其股份</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">和而泰</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">智能控制器</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">和而泰为小米汽车提供热管理控制器及小米智家智能控制器</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/tsparticles@3/tsparticles.bundle.min.js"></script>
|
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<script>
|
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tsParticles.load({
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
||
``` |