537 lines
26 KiB
HTML
537 lines
26 KiB
HTML
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN">
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<head>
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<meta charset="utf-8" />
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1, shrink-to-fit=no">
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<title>智能电表行业分析报告</title>
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<style>
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@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Noto+Sans+SC:wght@300;400;500;700&display=swap');
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body {
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font-family: 'Noto Sans SC', 'Inter', sans-serif;
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}
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.gradient-bg {
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, #1a2a6c, #b21f1f, #1a2a6c);
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background-size: 400% 400%;
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animation: gradient 15s ease infinite;
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}
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@keyframes gradient {
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0% { background-position: 0% 50%; }
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100% { background-position: 0% 50%; }
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.card-hover {
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transition: all 0.3s ease;
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}
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.card-hover:hover {
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transform: translateY(-5px);
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box-shadow: 0 10px 20px rgba(0,0,0,0.1);
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}
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.table-cell-wrap {
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white-space: normal;
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word-wrap: break-word;
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="bg-gray-50 min-h-screen">
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<div id="particles-js" class="fixed inset-0 z-0"></div>
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<div class="relative z-10 container mx-auto px-4 py-8 max-w-6xl">
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<!-- 标题部分 -->
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<div class="text-center mb-10">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-5xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-4">智能电表行业分析报告</h1>
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<p class="text-lg text-gray-600 max-w-3xl mx-auto">深度解析智能电表行业的市场动态、核心逻辑与投资机会</p>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心观点摘要 -->
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<div class="card bg-gradient-to-r from-blue-600 to-indigo-700 text-white mb-8 card-hover">
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<div class="card-body p-6">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-4">
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<div class="bg-white bg-opacity-20 rounded-lg p-4">
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<h3 class="font-semibold mb-2">阶段判断</h3>
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<p>智能电表处于"国内替换高峰+海外渗透率提升"双轮驱动阶段，非主题炒作，而是基本面驱动的2-3年景气周期。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-white bg-opacity-20 rounded-lg p-4">
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<h3 class="font-semibold mb-2">核心驱动力</h3>
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<p>国内8-10年替换周期（6.5亿只存量）+海外"一带一路"国家渗透率从<10%提升至50%+欧洲能源转型（4700亿欧元电网改造计划）。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 概念事件时间轴 -->
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<div class="card bg-white shadow-lg mb-8 card-hover">
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<div class="card-body p-6">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-4">概念事件时间轴</h2>
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<div class="relative">
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<div class="absolute left-4 top-0 bottom-0 w-0.5 bg-blue-500"></div>
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<div class="space-y-6 ml-10">
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<div class="relative">
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<div class="absolute -left-10 w-6 h-6 rounded-full bg-blue-500 border-4 border-white"></div>
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<div class="bg-blue-50 rounded-lg p-4">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-blue-700">2020年</h3>
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<p>国网发布IR46标准，智能电表进入"双芯+模组化"时代，单价提升30%-50%。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="relative">
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<div class="absolute -left-10 w-6 h-6 rounded-full bg-blue-500 border-4 border-white"></div>
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<div class="bg-blue-50 rounded-lg p-4">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-blue-700">2023年</h3>
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<p>国网招标量达7100万只，2024年三批次招标预计超9000万只（同比+25%），替换周期启动。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="relative">
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<div class="absolute -left-10 w-6 h-6 rounded-full bg-blue-500 border-4 border-white"></div>
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<div class="bg-blue-50 rounded-lg p-4">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-blue-700">2024年</h3>
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<p><strong>国内</strong>：新标准招标落地，单价止跌回升。<br>
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<strong>海外</strong>：欧洲270亿元招标启动（荷兰40亿+德国200亿），非洲需求达45亿元（加纳、埃及增速300%+）。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="relative">
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<div class="absolute -left-10 w-6 h-6 rounded-full bg-blue-500 border-4 border-white"></div>
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<div class="bg-blue-50 rounded-lg p-4">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-blue-700">2025年3月</h3>
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<p>欧洲政府换届，可能放宽对中国厂商的GPA限制，出口份额或翻倍。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心逻辑与市场认知分析 -->
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 mb-8">
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<div class="card bg-white shadow-lg card-hover">
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<div class="card-body p-6">
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<h2 class="text-xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-4">核心驱动力</h2>
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<div class="space-y-3">
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 w-6 h-6 rounded-full bg-green-500 flex items-center justify-center mt-1">
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<i class="fas fa-check text-white text-xs"></i>
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</div>
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<div class="ml-3">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-700">政策强制</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">国内"十四五"要求2025年智能电表覆盖率>95%，欧盟2030年目标100%。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 w-6 h-6 rounded-full bg-green-500 flex items-center justify-center mt-1">
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<i class="fas fa-check text-white text-xs"></i>
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</div>
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<div class="ml-3">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-700">技术升级</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">IR46标准推动单价从200元升至600元（物联表溢价3倍），毛利率从25%修复至30%+。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 w-6 h-6 rounded-full bg-green-500 flex items-center justify-center mt-1">
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<i class="fas fa-check text-white text-xs"></i>
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</div>
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<div class="ml-3">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-700">新能源配套</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">分布式光伏、充电桩需双向计量电表（2024年充电桩电表需求增速>30%）。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="card bg-white shadow-lg card-hover">
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<div class="card-body p-6">
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<h2 class="text-xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-4">市场热度与预期差</h2>
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<div class="mb-4">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-2">市场热度</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">2024年10-12月，8篇深度报告集中发布（银河、东吴、海通等），情绪乐观。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="mb-4">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-2">分歧点</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">市场担忧国内招标价持续下跌，但新标准成本增加15-20元，价格有望止跌。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-2">预期差</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">非洲市场2024年出口增速47.9%（肯尼亚、加纳需求爆发），但市场仅关注欧洲。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 关键催化剂与未来发展路径 -->
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 mb-8">
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<div class="card bg-gradient-to-br from-purple-500 to-indigo-600 text-white card-hover">
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<div class="card-body p-6">
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<h2 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4">近期催化剂（3-6个月）</h2>
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<div class="space-y-3">
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 w-8 h-8 rounded-full bg-white bg-opacity-20 flex items-center justify-center mt-1">
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<i class="fas fa-calendar-alt text-white"></i>
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</div>
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<div class="ml-3">
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<h3 class="font-semibold">2025年3月欧洲换届</h3>
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<p class="text-sm opacity-90">若中国纳入GPA白名单，出口份额或从40亿→80亿（翻倍）。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 w-8 h-8 rounded-full bg-white bg-opacity-20 flex items-center justify-center mt-1">
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<i class="fas fa-chart-line text-white"></i>
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</div>
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<div class="ml-3">
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<h3 class="font-semibold">国网二批次招标</h3>
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<p class="text-sm opacity-90">24标准表启动，单价环比回升（专家预测毛利率修复至20%）。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="card bg-gradient-to-br from-teal-500 to-green-600 text-white card-hover">
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<div class="card-body p-6">
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<h2 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4">长期发展路径</h2>
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<div class="space-y-3">
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 w-8 h-8 rounded-full bg-white bg-opacity-20 flex items-center justify-center mt-1">
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<i class="fas fa-globe text-white"></i>
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</div>
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<div class="ml-3">
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<h3 class="font-semibold">2025-2027年</h3>
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<p class="text-sm opacity-90">国内替换高峰（年均9000万只）+海外渗透率提升（拉美CAGR 21.7%）。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 w-8 h-8 rounded-full bg-white bg-opacity-20 flex items-center justify-center mt-1">
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<i class="fas fa-cogs text-white"></i>
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</div>
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<div class="ml-3">
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<h3 class="font-semibold">2028年后</h3>
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<p class="text-sm opacity-90">进入存量运维+AMI服务阶段（如沙特10年BOT项目，服务费5美元/表/年）。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 产业链与核心公司深度剖析 -->
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<div class="card bg-white shadow-lg mb-8 card-hover">
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<div class="card-body p-6">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-4">产业链与核心公司深度剖析</h2>
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<div class="mb-6">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-3">产业链图谱</h3>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-4">
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<div class="bg-blue-50 rounded-lg p-4">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-700 mb-2">上游</h4>
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<p class="text-gray-600">芯片（钜泉科技、复旦微电）、继电器（红相股份）</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-green-50 rounded-lg p-4">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-green-700 mb-2">中游</h4>
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<p class="text-gray-600">电表制造（海兴电力、三星医疗、威胜信息）</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-purple-50 rounded-lg p-4">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-purple-700 mb-2">下游</h4>
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<p class="text-gray-600">电网公司（国网、南网）、海外EPC（中电装备）</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-3">核心玩家对比</h3>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="min-w-full bg-white border border-gray-200">
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<thead>
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<tr class="bg-gray-100">
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-sm font-semibold text-gray-700 border-b">公司</th>
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-sm font-semibold text-gray-700 border-b">核心优势</th>
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-sm font-semibold text-gray-700 border-b">海外布局</th>
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-sm font-semibold text-gray-700 border-b">风险点</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b font-medium">海兴电力</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">印尼/巴西工厂，海外收入占比63%</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">非洲市占率第一（南非、肯尼亚）</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">非洲价格战（毛利率<30%）</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="bg-gray-50">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b font-medium">三星医疗</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">欧洲突破（瑞典订单），波兰工厂</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">中东绑定中电装备（沙特项目）</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">欧洲认证周期长</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b font-medium">威胜信息</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">南网份额12%，匈牙利工厂</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">荷兰招标领先（威胜集团中标）</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">国内份额分散化</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 潜在风险与挑战 -->
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<div class="card bg-white shadow-lg mb-8 card-hover">
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<div class="card-body p-6">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-4">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-4">
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<div class="border-l-4 border-red-500 pl-4">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-2">技术风险</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">IR46标准下继电器成本占比从10%→20%，红相股份能否量产20元继电器存疑。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="border-l-4 border-yellow-500 pl-4">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-2">商业化风险</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">巴西"5分钟竞价"模式导致电表价格低于成本（如2024年巴西单相表中标价45元）。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="border-l-4 border-orange-500 pl-4">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-2">政策风险</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">印度政治因素导致中国厂商退出（2023年印度出口额归零）。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="border-l-4 border-purple-500 pl-4">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-2">信息矛盾</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">欧洲需求：专家预测2025年后下降，但研报称东欧渗透率仅10%，增量空间仍大。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 综合结论与投资启示 -->
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<div class="card bg-gradient-to-r from-indigo-500 to-blue-600 text-white mb-8 card-hover">
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<div class="card-body p-6">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4">综合结论与投资启示</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">阶段判断</h3>
|
||
<p class="mb-4">基本面驱动，非主题炒作。国内替换高峰（2025-2026）+海外渗透率提升（拉美/非洲）构成2-3年景气周期。</p>
|
||
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">投资方向</h3>
|
||
<div class="space-y-2">
|
||
<div class="bg-white bg-opacity-20 rounded-lg p-3">
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold">弹性最大</h4>
|
||
<p>海兴电力（非洲+印尼本地化）、三星医疗（欧洲突破+中东绑定）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-white bg-opacity-20 rounded-lg p-3">
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold">估值洼地</h4>
|
||
<p>威胜信息（南网份额稳定，欧洲工厂投产）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">跟踪指标</h3>
|
||
<div class="space-y-3">
|
||
<div class="flex items-start">
|
||
<div class="flex-shrink-0 w-8 h-8 rounded-full bg-white bg-opacity-20 flex items-center justify-center mt-1">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-flag text-white"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="ml-3">
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold">国内</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">2025年二批次招标单价是否回升（新标准成本+15元）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="flex items-start">
|
||
<div class="flex-shrink-0 w-8 h-8 rounded-full bg-white bg-opacity-20 flex items-center justify-center mt-1">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-globe-americas text-white"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="ml-3">
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold">海外</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">非洲出口增速（2024年47.9%能否维持）、欧洲GPA政策（3月换届结果）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 关联股票数据表格 -->
|
||
<div class="card bg-white shadow-lg card-hover">
|
||
<div class="card-body p-6">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-4">关联股票数据</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="min-w-full bg-white border border-gray-200">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr class="bg-gray-100">
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-sm font-semibold text-gray-700 border-b">股票</th>
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-sm font-semibold text-gray-700 border-b">荣誉资质</th>
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-sm font-semibold text-gray-700 border-b">项目数量</th>
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-sm font-semibold text-gray-700 border-b">投资理由</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b font-medium">新天科技 (300259)</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">中国电子信息行业标杆企业</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b text-center font-medium">1556条</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">作为电子信息行业标杆企业，拥有大量招投标项目，显示其在智能电网和物联网领域的行业地位。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b font-medium">科陆电子 (002121)</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">国家认定企业技术中心</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b text-center font-medium">1867条</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">国家级技术中心认证，且参与大量项目，体现其在电力设备领域的技术实力和市场活跃度。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b font-medium">林洋能源 (601222)</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">国家级高新技术企业</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b text-center font-medium">599条</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">高新技术企业认证，结合较多的招投标项目，反映其在新能源领域的技术优势。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b font-medium">迦南智能 (300880)</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">行业知名的智能电网和泛在电力物联网体系服务商</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b text-center font-medium">168条</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">专注于智能电网和物联网领域，项目数量虽少但具备行业知名度。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b font-medium">万胜智能 (300882)</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">中国仪器仪表行业协会常务理事单位、全国电工仪器仪表标准化技术委员会委员单位、国家电力行业供用电标准化技术委员会委员单位</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b text-center font-medium">254条</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">在仪器仪表和电力设备标准化领域具有较高参与度，体现行业影响力。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b font-medium">西力科技 (688616)</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">拥有省级企业研究院、高新技术企业研究开发中心、省级企业技术中心及通过CNAS国家实验室认可的测试中心</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b text-center font-medium">220条</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">具备完善的研发和测试体系，支撑其在电力设备领域的技术创新能力。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b font-medium">煜邦电力 (688597)</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">北京市高新技术企业、软件企业、北京市企业技术中心和国家火炬计划重点高新技术企业</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b text-center font-medium">1013条</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">多项高新技术认证，结合大量项目，显示其在电力软件和设备领域的综合实力。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b font-medium">许继电气 (000400)</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">中国电力装备行业的领先企业</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b text-center font-medium">7912条</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 border-b table-cell-wrap">行业龙头企业地位显著，招投标项目数量遥遥领先，覆盖电力设备全产业链。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 数据来源 -->
|
||
<div class="text-center mt-8 mb-4 text-gray-500 text-sm">
|
||
<p>数据来源：国网招标公告、海关总署、Frost&Sullivan、专家路演纪要</p>
|
||
</div>
|
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</div>
|
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``` |