484 lines
33 KiB
HTML
484 lines
33 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>服务器 (Server) - 深度投研报告</title>
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font-family: 'Inter', sans-serif;
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background-color: #020617;
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background-image:
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radial-gradient(ellipse at 50% 100%, rgba(14, 116, 144, 0.2), transparent 60%),
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</head>
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<body class="text-slate-300 min-h-screen">
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center mb-12 animate-fade-in-down">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold text-slate-100 glow-text tracking-tight">服务器 (Server)</h1>
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<h2 class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-light text-sky-400 mt-2">概念深度投研报告</h2>
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<p class="mt-6 text-sm text-slate-500 max-w-2xl mx-auto">
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由北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研”呈现。<br>本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。
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</p>
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</header>
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<!-- Core Insight -->
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<section id="insight" class="mb-16">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-10">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-slate-100 mb-6 border-l-4 border-sky-400 pl-4">核心Insight</h2>
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<div class="space-y-8 prose prose-slate max-w-none prose-invert prose-headings:text-sky-300 prose-strong:text-slate-100 prose-a:text-sky-400">
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<div>
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<h4>0. 核心观点摘要</h4>
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<p>服务器市场正处于由 <strong>AI算力需求驱动的结构性牛市</strong> 中，其核心特征是从“量”的增长（通用服务器）转向“价”的飞跃（AI服务器）。当前市场呈现出两条并行的发展路径：<strong>国际市场</strong>由英伟达的技术迭代主导，催生了对 <strong>液冷、高功率电源、高速互联</strong> 等增量组件的巨大需求；<strong>国内市场</strong>则在政策与自主可控驱动下，加速国产AI芯片服务器的生态建设与放量，形成了独特的“信创+AI”双轮驱动格局。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
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<div>
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<h4>1. 核心催化事件</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 space-y-2">
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<li><strong>宏观驱动 (2023至今):</strong> 生成式AI应用引爆全球算力需求，服务器成为AI时代核心生产力工具。</li>
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<li><strong>国际线索 (2024-2025):</strong> 英伟达从H100向Blackwell架构 (GB200) 演进，推动电源、散热 (液冷)、互联技术变革。鸿海于2025年3月量产GB200，但NVL72因散热问题大规模出货推迟至2025Q1-Q2。</li>
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<li><strong>国内线索 (2024至今):</strong> 国产化替代加速，形成英伟达特供芯 (H20/B30) 与国产AI芯 (昇腾/海光) 双主线。运营商、金融机构启动百亿级国产服务器招标。</li>
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<li><strong>格局变化 (24Q2):</strong> 浪潮信息在国内AI服务器市占率从36%强势<strong>恢复至47%</strong>。华为昇腾服务器需求旺盛，预计2025年出货量近<strong>1000亿</strong>。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4>2. 核心逻辑与市场认知</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 space-y-2">
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<li><strong>技术范式革命:</strong> 大模型使算力成为新“石油”。高盛预测全球AI服务器市场<strong>CAGR +38%</strong>，传统服务器<strong>-2%</strong>。</li>
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<li><strong>功耗“军备竞赛”:</strong> 芯片功率从700W (H100) 跃升至 >2000W (B200)，单机柜功率从6-8kW飙升至30-120kW，催生液冷、高功率电源等高价值环节爆发。</li>
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<li><strong>国内政策强驱:</strong> 运营商、金融信创采购明确向国产芯片倾斜，为国产产业链提供确定性市场需求。</li>
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<li><strong>市场热度:</strong> 市场对AI服务器及上游组件（液冷、电源、高速铜缆）高度聚焦，资金热烈追捧“铲子股”。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4>3. 预期差分析 (关键)</h4>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-4">
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<div class="bg-slate-800/50 p-4 rounded-xl border border-amber-500/30">
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<h5 class="font-semibold text-amber-400">技术落地节奏差</h5>
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<p>市场对NVL72放量过于乐观，但路演揭示其因散热问题<strong>大规模出货已推迟</strong>。产业链订单兑现节奏可能不及预期。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-slate-800/50 p-4 rounded-xl border border-amber-500/30">
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<h5 class="font-semibold text-amber-400">价值分配认知差</h5>
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<p>市场关注整机厂，但路演揭示服务器厂商（如浪潮）力图自研垄断液冷方案（毛利>60%），挤压组件商利润。同时，AI服务器电源价值量从<strong>数百元跃升至万元级</strong>，单柜价值达<strong>数十万</strong>，市场认知尚不充分。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-slate-800/50 p-4 rounded-xl border border-amber-500/30">
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<h5 class="font-semibold text-amber-400">国产盈利能力差</h5>
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<p>市场看好国产服务器出货量，但数据显示H20服务器毛利率<strong>仅约2%</strong>。当前阶段国产替代虽带来收入，但盈利能力远低于市场预期。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4>4. 关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h4>
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<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row gap-8">
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<div class="flex-1">
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<h5 class="font-semibold">近期催化剂 (3-6个月)</h5>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5">
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<li>英伟达GB200/NVL72实际量产与出货数据。</li>
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<li>国产B30芯片服务器规模化出货及市场接受度。</li>
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<li>运营商和金融信创招标结果密集公布。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="flex-1">
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<h5 class="font-semibold">长期发展路径</h5>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5">
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<li><strong>散热:</strong> 从冷板式液冷 (主流) 向两相冷却 (浸没式) 演进。</li>
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<li><strong>供电:</strong> 电源标准从3kW CRPS全面转向5.5kW/8kW ORV3，并向13kW演进。</li>
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<li><strong>国产生态:</strong> 昇腾910C等新芯片带动国产服务器性能提升，摆脱“低毛利”困境。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4>5. 潜在风险与挑战</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 space-y-1">
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<li><strong>技术风险:</strong> 英伟达新架构落地不及预期；国产芯片性能瓶颈显著 (如HBM vs GDDR6)。</li>
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<li><strong>商业化风险:</strong> 国内厂商利润微薄 (H20毛利率2%)；高价组件 (液冷快接头单价$40飙升至$60) 侵蚀利润。</li>
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<li><strong>交叉验证风险:</strong> GB200出货时间在新闻（已量产）与路演（推迟）中存在矛盾，市场可能过于乐观。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4>6. 综合结论与投资启示</h4>
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<p>服务器概念已进入<strong>基本面驱动阶段</strong>，但市场在追捧中存在对落地节奏和价值分配的<strong>过度乐观</strong>。</p>
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<p><strong>最具投资价值的细分环节：</strong></p>
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<ol class="list-decimal pl-5 font-semibold">
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<li><strong>服务器电源:</strong> 价值量从“配件”跃升为“核心部件”，市场空间千亿级，技术壁垒高。</li>
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<li><strong>液冷系统:</strong> 从“可选”变为“必需”，具备核心部件自研能力并与服务器厂商深度绑定的公司最具优势。</li>
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<li><strong>高速互联组件:</strong> 解决数据传输瓶颈的关键，价值量显著提升。</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Market Data Visualization -->
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<section id="charts" class="mb-16">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-slate-100 mb-6 text-center">市场数据与趋势</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<!-- Chart 1: Market Growth -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 h-96"><div id="marketGrowthChart" class="w-full h-full"></div></div>
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<!-- Chart 2: Domestic AI Server Share -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 h-96"><div id="marketShareChart" class="w-full h-full"></div></div>
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<!-- Chart 3: AI Server Forecast -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 h-96"><div id="marketForecastChart" class="w-full h-full"></div></div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Detailed Info Hub -->
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<section id="data-hub" class="mb-16" x-data="{ tab: 'news' }">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-10">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-slate-100 mb-6 border-l-4 border-sky-400 pl-4">多源数据情报中心</h2>
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<div class="tabs tabs-bordered mb-6">
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<a class="tab tab-lg" @click="tab = 'news'" :class="{ 'tab-active-glow': tab === 'news' }">新闻数据精粹</a>
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<a class="tab tab-lg" @click="tab = 'roadshow'" :class="{ 'tab-active-glow': tab === 'roadshow' }">路演核心纪要</a>
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<a class="tab tab-lg" @click="tab = 'report'" :class="{ 'tab-active-glow': tab === 'report' }">研报关键信息</a>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'news'" class="prose prose-slate max-w-none prose-invert space-y-4">
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<h3>市场趋势与预测</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>全球市场 (申万):</strong> 24Q2全球服务器收入同比 <strong>+65%</strong> 至521亿美元。ODM占比39%。</li>
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<li><strong>国内市场 (申万):</strong> 24Q2国内服务器收入同比 <strong>+59%</strong> 至115亿美元。浪潮、华三、联想、超聚变、宁畅分列前五。</li>
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<li><strong>国内AI服务器 (申万):</strong> 24Q2浪潮市占率恢复至 <strong>47%</strong> (Q1为36%)，遥遥领先。</li>
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<li><strong>高盛预测:</strong> 上调2025-2029年AI服务器市场复合年增长率至 <strong>+38%</strong>，2029年市场规模达5810亿美元。传统服务器CAGR为 <strong>-2%</strong>。</li>
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<li><strong>IDC预测:</strong> 2024-2028年中国AI服务器市场规模将由190亿美元增长至550亿美元。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3>核心厂商动态</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>华为:</strong> 昇腾服务器24年出货量预计500-600亿，25年近1000亿。鲲鹏服务器24年出货量预计250-260亿。</li>
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<li><strong>浪潮:</strong> H20芯片库存中占40%份额，B30分配中占50%。独家中标工商银行30亿海光服务器采购项目。</li>
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<li><strong>鸿海:</strong> 预计2025年AI服务器销售额超1万亿新台币。3月已量产GB200服务器，目标GB200/300 NVL72机柜市场份额超40%。</li>
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<li><strong>广合科技:</strong> 70%收入来自服务器，客户包括戴尔、浪潮、鸿海等，并导入亚马逊、Meta等核心AI客户。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3>组件与技术</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>电源:</strong> AI服务器电源是下一个千亿元市场。NVL72单机柜电源价值量超130万人民币。麦格米特进入英伟达供应链，获15%保底份额。</li>
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<li><strong>液冷:</strong> AI服务器功耗提升驱动液冷成为必然选择。快换接头供不应求，单价从$40飙升至$60。</li>
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<li><strong>互联:</strong> GB200量产将带动高速铜缆市场2025年同比增长90%至15亿美元。澜起科技是大陆唯一能量产PCIE Retimer芯片的供应商。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3>采购与招标</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>工商银行:</strong> 百亿服务器招标以国产芯片为主。</li>
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<li><strong>中国电信:</strong> 24-25年集采服务器15.6万台 (GPU服务器1.3万台)，总金额约160+亿，明确要求C86、龙芯等国产架构。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'roadshow'" class="prose prose-slate max-w-none prose-invert space-y-4">
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<h3>AI服务器与液冷</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>驱动因素:</strong> AI芯片功率显著提升（B200超2000W），风冷无法满足，液冷成主流。</li>
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<li><strong>技术路线:</strong> 冷板式是主流，市场份额65%。</li>
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<li><strong>厂商主导:</strong> 浪潮、华为等服务器厂商自研液冷方案，毛利率可达60%以上，倾向垄断。</li>
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<li><strong>英伟达挑战:</strong> NVL72因散热密度过高(120kW)导致宕机，大规模出货推迟至2025年Q1-Q2。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3>服务器电源</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>价值量剧增:</strong> 通用服务器电源单价500-800元，AI服务器电源单价可达<strong>万元</strong>，NVL72整柜电源价值量达<strong>数十万元</strong>。</li>
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<li><strong>技术标准:</strong> 主流从CRPS(约3kW)转向AI适配的ORV3(起步5.5kW，未来8kW)。</li>
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<li><strong>供应链格局:</strong> 台企（台达、光宝）主导，大陆厂商（麦格米特、欧陆通）加速突破。麦格米特已与英伟达合作，预计2025年量产；欧陆通未通过GB200认证。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3>国产服务器</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>GPU依赖:</strong> 国内AI服务器90%以上仍使用英伟达A100/H100，国产GPU性能差距显著。</li>
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<li><strong>海光信息:</strong> 7000系列CPU性能国内领先，DCU支持大模型训练。</li>
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<li><strong>市场格局:</strong> 2023上半年浪潮、新华三、曙光占据超70%份额。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
|
||
|
||
<div x-show="tab === 'report'" class="prose prose-slate max-w-none prose-invert space-y-4">
|
||
<h3>IDC与智算中心 (服务器物理载体)</h3>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>庆阳大数据中心:</strong> 部署约2.4万标柜，算力规模26000P。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>华为云青岛数据中心:</strong> 规划超万台服务器，采用液冷机房，年均PUE低至1.1。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>金山云青海智算中心:</strong> 总算力超4000P，规划256台算力服务器集群。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h3>IaaS产品与技术</h3>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>火山引擎:</strong> 发布基于<strong>英特尔至强6</strong>和<strong>AMD EPYC Turin</strong>的新一代实例；创新的<strong>双单路服务器架构</strong>降低故障半径。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>资源复用:</strong> 火山引擎推出"弹性预约实例ESI"，与字节跳动业务资源分时复用，节省算力成本。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h3>数字化转型需求 (间接)</h3>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>物业行业:</strong> 碧桂园服务等公司积极发展<strong>数字化、AIoT及物业机器人</strong>，这些业务均需强大的服务器基础设施支持。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>政策驱动:</strong> 《关于推进新型城市基础设施建设的意见》、《制造业企业数字化转型实施指南》等政策，推动各行业对服务器的潜在需求。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Data -->
|
||
<section id="stocks" class="mb-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-slate-100 mb-8 text-center">产业链核心标的</h2>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Concept Stocks Table -->
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 mb-12">
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold text-slate-100 mb-6">服务器概念股图谱</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra-zebra">
|
||
<thead class="text-slate-300 text-sm">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑</th>
|
||
<th>其他标签</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>高新发展</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000628" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">000628</a></td><td>华为系服务器（昇腾+鲲鹏占有率约25%）及一体机</td><td><span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">华为系</span> <span class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">一体机</span></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>神州数码</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000034" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">000034</a></td><td>华为系服务器(15%)及英伟达分销商</td><td><span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">华为系</span> <span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">英伟达</span></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>浪潮信息</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000977" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">000977</a></td><td>国内AI服务器龙头，英伟达服务器核心伙伴</td><td><span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">英伟达</span> <span class="badge badge-info badge-outline">龙头</span></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>工业富联</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601138" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">601138</a></td><td>英伟达AI服务器核心代工商 (NVL72)</td><td><span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">英伟达</span> <span class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">代工</span></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>中兴通讯</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000063" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">000063</a></td><td>英伟达服务器及国产服务器供应商</td><td><span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">英伟达</span> <span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">国产</span></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>紫光股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000938" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">000938</a></td><td>旗下新华三为服务器重要厂商，英伟达分销商</td><td><span class="badge badge-info badge-outline">新华三</span> <span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">分销商</span></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>中科曙光</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603019" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">603019</a></td><td>国产服务器核心厂商，液冷技术领先</td><td><span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">中科系</span> <span class="badge badge-success badge-outline">液冷</span></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>海光信息</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688041" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">688041</a></td><td>国产领先的CPU与DCU(AI芯片)供应商</td><td><span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">AI芯片</span> <span class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">CPU</span></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>寒武纪</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688256" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">688256</a></td><td>国产AI芯片（思元系列）</td><td><span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">AI芯片</span></td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Rise Analysis -->
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold text-slate-100 mb-6">相关个股异动分析</h3>
|
||
<div class="space-y-6">
|
||
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|
||
<input type="checkbox" @click="open = !open"/>
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium" :class="{'text-sky-300': open}">
|
||
方正科技 (600601) - AI服务器PCB
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<p class="text-sm"><strong>核心催化:</strong> “英伟达GB200服务器PCB长单+珠海富山新厂投产+工信部白名单所得税优惠+珠海国资二次举牌”四重催化集中兑现。</p>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc pl-5 text-sm mt-2">
|
||
<li><strong>订单:</strong> 获英伟达GB200验证，公告26亿元三年长单，锁定2025H2起批量供货。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>产能:</strong> 珠海富山新厂投产，新增60万㎡/月高频高速产能，直接匹配GB200需求。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>政策:</strong> 列入工信部AI服务器PCB白名单，享15%所得税优惠，增厚净利。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-slate-800/50 glow-border" x-data="{ open: false }">
|
||
<input type="checkbox" @click="open = !open"/>
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium" :class="{'text-sky-300': open}">
|
||
英维克 (002837) - 液冷服务器
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<p class="text-sm"><strong>核心催化:</strong> “中国移动12.3亿元AI服务器液冷系统集采中标+英伟达GB300/ASIC海外订单放量”双重催化。</p>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc pl-5 text-sm mt-2">
|
||
<li><strong>中标:</strong> 中标中国移动2025-2026年AI服务器液冷系统集采第一标段，金额12.3亿元，占2024年营收46%。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>海外:</strong> CDU、快接头已进入英伟达GB300直采名单，Meta指定广达冷板独供英维克。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>技术:</strong> Coolinside全链条液冷方案已规模化商用，覆盖服务器侧冷板至一次侧冷源，技术壁垒高。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-slate-800/50 glow-border" x-data="{ open: false }">
|
||
<input type="checkbox" @click="open = !open"/>
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium" :class="{'text-sky-300': open}">
|
||
奥海科技 (002993) - 服务器电源
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<p class="text-sm"><strong>核心催化:</strong> 公司服务器电源业务取得实质性进展，叠加算力板块整体走强。</p>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc pl-5 text-sm mt-2">
|
||
<li><strong>业务进展:</strong> 服务器电源、算力电源、PDB电源等产品已实现批量出货，功率覆盖550W至8000W。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>客户拓展:</strong> 客户涉及服务器厂家、ODM工厂、互联网企业等，传闻与联想有新项目合作。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>行业景气:</strong> 甲骨文等海外云厂商资本开支指引强劲，带动上游服务器零部件增长。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
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</div>
|
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</div>
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