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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<title>半导体设计 - 深度行业研究报告</title>
<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.10.2/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
<script defer src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js"></script>
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
<style>
@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Noto+Sans+SC:wght@300;400;500;700&display=swap');
body {
font-family: 'Noto Sans SC', sans-serif;
background-color: #020617; /* slate-950 */
color: #d1d5db; /* gray-300 */
overflow-x: hidden;
}
.glass-card {
background: rgba(15, 23, 42, 0.6); /* slate-900/60 */
-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
border: 1px solid rgba(51, 65, 85, 0.7); /* slate-700/70 */
border-radius: 24px;
padding: 24px;
transition: all 0.3s ease-in-out;
}
.glass-card:hover {
border-color: rgba(34, 211, 238, 0.5); /* cyan-400/50 */
transform: translateY(-4px);
box-shadow: 0 0 40px rgba(34, 211, 238, 0.1);
}
.sub-glass-card {
background: rgba(15, 23, 42, 0.7); /* slate-900/70 */
-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(10px);
backdrop-filter: blur(10px);
border: 1px solid rgba(51, 65, 85, 0.5); /* slate-700/50 */
border-radius: 16px;
padding: 16px;
}
.bento-grid {
display: grid;
grid-auto-rows: auto;
gap: 1.5rem;
}
@media (min-width: 1024px) {
.bento-grid {
grid-template-columns: repeat(12, 1fr);
}
}
.glow-effect {
position: absolute;
pointer-events: none;
z-index: -1;
filter: blur(150px);
border-radius: 50%;
}
.glow-1 {
top: -20%;
left: -10%;
width: 500px;
height: 500px;
background-color: rgba(2, 132, 199, 0.2); /* sky-600 */
animation: pulse 15s infinite alternate;
}
.glow-2 {
bottom: -30%;
right: -15%;
width: 600px;
height: 600px;
background-color: rgba(139, 92, 246, 0.15); /* violet-500 */
animation: pulse 20s infinite alternate-reverse;
}
@keyframes pulse {
0% { transform: scale(0.8) rotate(0deg); opacity: 0.5; }
100% { transform: scale(1.2) rotate(15deg); opacity: 0.8; }
}
h2 {
@apply text-xl font-bold mb-4 border-l-4 border-cyan-400 pl-3 text-gray-100;
}
h3 {
@apply text-lg font-semibold mb-3 text-gray-200;
}
h4 {
@apply text-base font-semibold text-cyan-300;
}
strong {
@apply text-cyan-300;
}
</style>
</head>
<body class="min-h-screen relative">
<div class="glow-effect glow-1"></div>
<div class="glow-effect glow-2"></div>
<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8 max-w-7xl">
<header class="mb-12 text-center relative z-10">
<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold bg-clip-text text-transparent bg-gradient-to-br from-white to-cyan-400 tracking-tighter">
半导体设计
</h1>
<p class="text-lg text-cyan-400/80 mt-2">深度行业研究报告</p>
<p class="text-xs text-slate-500 mt-4 tracking-wider">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent“价小前投研” | 本报告为AI合成数据投资需谨慎。</p>
</header>
<div class="bento-grid">
<!-- Insight -->
<div class="glass-card lg:col-span-8 lg:row-span-3">
<h2>【概念insight半导体设计】</h2>
<div class="space-y-6 text-gray-300 text-sm leading-relaxed max-h-[1200px] overflow-y-auto pr-2">
<p class="text-base font-semibold text-gray-100">半导体设计行业正处于<strong>周期性复苏与技术性变革</strong>的双重驱动阶段。其核心驱动力已由传统的库存去化转向以<strong>AI为核心的创新周期</strong>这不仅带来了云端算力和边缘终端AI PC/手机)的巨大增量需求,也倒逼国内产业在外部限制下,加速向<strong>架构创新和先进封装</strong>等非对称路径突围。目前市场已进入由业绩验证驱动的阶段但对AI应用的广度和深度仍存在预期差这构成了未来超额收益的关键。</p>
<div>
<h3>核心驱动力</h3>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 pl-2">
<li><strong>AI创新周期长期、核心</strong>: 这是支撑板块估值和长期增长的最根本逻辑。AI驱动的升级是系统性的覆盖云端高端算力、接口芯片和终端AI PC/手机拉动SoC/NPU、存储、模拟IC</li>
<li><strong>国产替代深化(中期、加速器)</strong>: 外部限制为国内设计企业提供了前所未有的市场准入机会。海外大厂战略性退出中低端市场,为国内厂商腾出空间,尤其在“高端算力、高端模拟芯片”等领域,天花板极高。</li>
<li><strong>产业周期复苏(短期、基础)</strong>: 消费电子的温和复苏和工业领域的去库存接近尾声为设计公司提供了稳固的业绩底。1Q24设计板块营收同比+51.7%,利润大幅改善,强力印证复苏逻辑。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<h3>预期差分析</h3>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 pl-2">
<li><strong>对非先进工艺创新的低估</strong>: 市场可能低估了通过“架构创新”和“先进封装Chiplet/3D集成”实现性能追赶的难度与价值这正是EDA、接口IP等“赋能者”的核心价值。</li>
<li><strong>对模拟芯片价值重估的忽视</strong>: 市场焦点多在数字算力芯片但AI终端对电源管理、快充芯片等模拟IC的强劲拉动其价值增量可能超出市场普遍预期。</li>
<li><strong>M&A并购主题的兴起</strong>: 政策鼓励下,通过并购切入半导体设计赛道成为新趋势,行业整合与“跨界收购”可能成为超预期的催化剂。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<h3>关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h3>
<p><strong>近期催化剂3-6个月</strong>: 1. AI终端产品密集发布如8-9月安卓AI旗舰机2. Q2及Q3财报季验证复苏强度3. 大基金三期及地方基金的投资动向。</p>
<p><strong>长期发展路径</strong>:</p>
<ol class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-1 pl-2">
<li><strong>当前-2026</strong>: 应用驱动下的全面替代在消费、AIoT等领域实现对中低端产品的替代。</li>
<li><strong>2026-2028</strong>: 高端领域的重点突破,在汽车电子和数据中心取得关键客户突破。</li>
<li><strong>2028-2030</strong>: 生态构建与标准引领在EDA、核心IP和新兴计算架构领域形成自主可控生态。</li>
</ol>
</div>
<div>
<h3>最具投资价值的细分环节</h3>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 pl-2">
<li><strong>AI终端赋能者</strong>: 直接受益于AI PC/手机创新的SoC/NPU及高价值模拟/电源管理芯片公司。</li>
<li><strong>产业链基石</strong>: 具备“卖水者”属性的EDA和核心IP供应商战略价值和长期增长确定性最高。</li>
<li><strong>先进封装“连接件”</strong>: 提供高速接口IP等支持Chiplet和3D封装的设计服务/IP公司是绕道先进制程瓶颈的关键。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<h3>潜在风险与挑战</h3>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 pl-2">
<li><strong>技术风险</strong>: 非先进工艺的性能瓶颈EDA与核心IP自主化程度待提升。</li>
<li><strong>商业化风险</strong>: AI终端需求不及预期低端市场“内卷”加剧。</li>
<li><strong>政策与竞争风险</strong>: 外部管制加剧,国际巨头反击。</li>
<li><strong>信息交叉验证风险</strong>: 市场存在“蹭热点”现象,需甄别业务与概念的匹配度。</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Market Size Chart -->
<div class="glass-card lg:col-span-4">
<h2>市场规模预测 (亿元)</h2>
<div id="market-size-chart" class="w-full h-64"></div>
<p class="text-xs text-slate-400 mt-2">数据来源中国半导体行业协会魏少军预测。2024年销售额为6458.5亿元计算得出2030年为预测下限。</p>
</div>
<!-- Data Tabs -->
<div class="glass-card lg:col-span-4 lg:row-span-2" x-data="{ tab: 'news' }">
<div class="tabs tabs-boxed bg-slate-950/50 mb-4">
<a class="tab tab-sm sm:tab-md flex-1" :class="{ 'tab-active bg-cyan-600/50': tab === 'news' }" @click="tab = 'news'">新闻数据</a>
<a class="tab tab-sm sm:tab-md flex-1" :class="{ 'tab-active bg-cyan-600/50': tab === 'roadshows' }" @click="tab = 'roadshows'">路演纪要</a>
<a class="tab tab-sm sm:tab-md flex-1" :class="{ 'tab-active bg-cyan-600/50': tab === 'reports' }" @click="tab = 'reports'">研报精粹</a>
</div>
<div class="space-y-3 text-sm max-h-[500px] overflow-y-auto pr-2 text-gray-400">
<div x-show="tab === 'news'" x-transition>
<h3>产业宏观</h3>
<p><strong>万亿规模预期</strong>: 魏少军预测2025年中国芯片设计产业销售额将达<strong>8357.3亿元</strong>(同比+29.4%2030年前有望突破<strong>10000亿元</strong></p>
<h3>技术路径</h3>
<p><strong>非先进工艺创新</strong>: 面对外部限制,重点关注<strong>架构创新</strong><strong>微系统集成(先进封装)</strong>两条技术路径。</p>
<h3>驱动力</h3>
<p><strong>AI与国产替代</strong>: 中金、国君电子均认为AI创新周期是后续核心驱动力AI换机潮将拉动云、端侧算力芯片需求。高端算力、高端模拟芯片国产替代空间巨大。</p>
<h3>资本动向</h3>
<p><strong>产业基金聚焦</strong>: 深圳<strong>50亿</strong>赛米产业基金明确投向AI芯片、EDA、核心IP等设计领域。科创板推出芯片设计主题指数。</p>
</div>
<div x-show="tab === 'roadshows'" x-transition>
<h3>行业周期</h3>
<p><strong>底部复苏</strong>: IC设计板块处于底部区域2024年下半年有望迎来消费、工控、汽车“三周期共振”2025年全面复苏。</p>
<h3>AI终端驱动</h3>
<p><strong>价值增量</strong>: AI手机/PC拉动<strong>算力、存储、模拟IC</strong>三大环节价值。快充(>80W)、电荷泵技术、高算力SoC/NPU成为核心需求。</p>
<h3>细分领域</h3>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1">
<li><strong>模拟IC</strong>: 工业与汽车为核心增长点国产化率低10-20%),替代空间巨大。</li>
<li><strong>数字SoC</strong>: AIoT创新活跃恒玄科技、瑞芯微等布局端侧AI。</li>
<li><strong>存储</strong>: AI终端推动利基型存储NOR/DRAM规格升级和涨价。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div x-show="tab === 'reports'" x-transition>
<h3>业绩表现</h3>
<p><strong>盈利改善显著</strong>: 1Q24设计板块营收预计同比<strong>+51.7%</strong>,利润同比大幅改善。手机链、存储链公司业绩弹性强劲。</p>
<h3>明星公司</h3>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1">
<li><strong>澜起科技</strong>: 接口芯片龙头1Q24营收同比+75.7%净利增10倍受益服务器市场回暖。</li>
<li><strong>瑞芯微</strong>: SoC芯片24Q3营收预计同比+51.4%依托AIoT增长和新产品RK3576放量。</li>
<li><strong>海光信息</strong>: 数字芯片24Q3业绩预告超预期营收同比增55%-95%。</li>
</ul>
<h3>上游支撑</h3>
<p><strong>工艺与材料</strong>: ALD/CVD、HKMG、TSV等先进工艺及SiC等第三代半导体材料为逻辑、存储、功率半导体设计创新提供关键支持。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Rise Analysis -->
<div class="glass-card lg:col-span-12">
<h2>涨幅异动分析(概念关联度提示)</h2>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-4 mt-4 text-xs max-h-80 overflow-y-auto pr-2">
<div class="sub-glass-card">
<h4>友阿股份 <span class="text-gray-400">(002277)</span></h4>
<p class="text-gray-300"><strong>核心逻辑</strong>: 跨界并购。通过重大资产重组收购功率半导体设计公司尚阳通,主业切换预期引发估值重构。</p>
</div>
<div class="sub-glass-card">
<h4>盈新发展 <span class="text-gray-400">(000620)</span></h4>
<p class="text-gray-300"><strong>核心逻辑</strong>: 跨界并购。拟收购DRAM设计标的“长兴半导体”叠加并购政策与地方产业政策共振触发“小壳装大资产”预期。</p>
</div>
<div class="sub-glass-card">
<h4>华天科技 <span class="text-gray-400">(002185)</span></h4>
<p class="text-gray-300"><strong>核心逻辑</strong>: 产业链整合。封测龙头并购功率半导体IDM含设计企业华羿微电打通“设计-封测”产业链,提升盈利能力。</p>
</div>
<div class="sub-glass-card">
<h4>启迪设计 <span class="text-gray-400">(300500)</span></h4>
<p class="text-gray-300"><strong>核心逻辑</strong>: 概念映射关联度低。主业建筑设计因承接过智算中心设计项目被市场映射至“AI基建”概念进行炒作。</p>
</div>
<div class="sub-glass-card">
<h4>郑中设计 <span class="text-gray-400">(002811)</span></h4>
<p class="text-gray-300"><strong>核心逻辑</strong>: 概念映射关联度低。主业室内设计因名称被市场强行关联至“AI应用”等热点概念属于纯情绪驱动的投机行情。</p>
</div>
<div class="sub-glass-card">
<h4>中衡设计 <span class="text-gray-400">(603017)</span></h4>
<p class="text-gray-300"><strong>核心逻辑</strong>: 概念映射(关联度低)。主业建筑设计,被市场想象为“灯塔工厂”、“工业智能化”产业链的设计环节,进行主题性炒作。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Stock Table -->
<div class="glass-card lg:col-span-12">
<h2>核心标的梳理</h2>
<div class="overflow-x-auto mt-4">
<table class="table table-sm w-full">
<thead class="text-cyan-300 text-sm">
<tr>
<th>细分领域</th>
<th>股票名称</th>
<th>股票代码</th>
<th>核心逻辑</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody class="text-gray-300">
<!-- EDA软件 -->
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td>EDA软件</td><td>华大九天</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301269" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">301269</a></td><td>国产EDA龙头产业链“卖水者”受益于整个设计行业国产化</td></tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td></td><td>概伦电子</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688206" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">688206</a></td><td>EDA软件聚焦制造与设计协同</td></tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td></td><td>广立微</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301095" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">301095</a></td><td>EDA软件聚焦成品率提升</td></tr>
<!-- 存储芯片 -->
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td>存储芯片</td><td>兆易创新</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603986" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">603986</a></td><td>Nor Flash与利基型DRAM龙头受益AIoT需求及价格回暖</td></tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td></td><td>北京君正</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300223" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">300223</a></td><td>利基型存储(DRAM/NAND)设计,聚焦工业与行业市场</td></tr>
<!-- 模拟芯片 -->
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td>模拟芯片</td><td>圣邦股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300661" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">300661</a></td><td>平台化龙头,产品线广,工业领域突破显著</td></tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td></td><td>韦尔股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603501" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">603501</a></td><td>CIS图像传感器全球龙头受益手机高端化与汽车电子</td></tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td></td><td>卓胜微</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300782" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">300782</a></td><td>射频前端芯片龙头受益5G渗透及国产替代</td></tr>
<!-- CPU/接口 -->
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td>CPU/接口</td><td>澜起科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688008" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">688008</a></td><td>内存接口芯片全球龙头受益服务器与AI算力需求</td></tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td></td><td>中科曙光</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603019" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">603019</a></td><td>国产服务器及海光CPU核心销售方</td></tr>
<!-- GPU -->
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td>GPU</td><td>景嘉微</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300474" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">300474</a></td><td>国产GPU稀缺标的聚焦军用及信创市场</td></tr>
<!-- MCU -->
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td>MCU</td><td>中颖电子</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300327" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">300327</a></td><td>MCU龙头聚焦家电、工业控制</td></tr>
<!-- SoC芯片 -->
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td>SoC芯片</td><td>瑞芯微</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603893" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">603893</a></td><td>AIoT SoC龙头向高端化转型布局端侧AI算力</td></tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td></td><td>全志科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300458" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">300458</a></td><td>SoC芯片深耕智能车载、扫地机器人等新兴领域</td></tr>
<!-- FPGA -->
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td>FPGA</td><td>复旦微电</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688385" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">688385</a></td><td>国产FPGA龙头企业之一</td></tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td></td><td>安路科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688107" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">688107</a></td><td>国产FPGA主要厂商聚焦民用市场</td></tr>
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