498 lines
34 KiB
HTML
498 lines
34 KiB
HTML
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<title>预制菜 深度投研报告</title>
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预制菜 · 深度投研报告
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</h1>
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<p class="mt-4 text-slate-400 max-w-2xl mx-auto">
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一份由政策、舆论与资本共同塑造的万亿级赛道深度剖析,揭示从野蛮生长到合规发展的产业重构逻辑。
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</p>
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<main class="space-y-12">
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<!-- Core Insight Section -->
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<section class="glow-border">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-10 space-y-8">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-white section-title">概念洞察 (Insight)</h2>
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<div class="lg:col-span-2 glass-card rounded-2xl p-6 border border-slate-700">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-indigo-300 mb-2">核心观点</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300">预制菜概念正处于从<strong class="text-amber-400">舆论风暴驱动的野蛮生长</strong>,向<strong class="text-sky-400">政策法规重塑下的产业整合</strong>过渡的关键拐点。B端降本增效与C端便利化需求的双轮驱动力依然强劲。短期行业将经历“去伪存真”的洗牌阵痛,最终具备<strong class="text-teal-300">强大供应链、冷链能力和品牌公信力</strong>的头部企业将胜出。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-6 border border-slate-700">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-indigo-300 mb-2">市场情绪</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300">呈现典型的<strong class="text-red-400">“舆论冰、资本火”</strong>分裂状态。消费者对安全与知情权存疑,而资本市场看好其万亿规模的长期逻辑。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Concept Events -->
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-slate-100 mb-4">0. 概念关键事件</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-4">
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<svg class="w-6 h-6 text-cyan-400 mr-3 mt-1 flex-shrink-0" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M9 12l2 2 4-4m6 2a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z"></path></svg>
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<div><strong class="text-slate-100">萌芽与增长期 (2021-2023):</strong> 餐饮连锁化与外卖经济驱动,进入爆发式增长。</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<svg class="w-6 h-6 text-cyan-400 mr-3 mt-1 flex-shrink-0" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M9 12l2 2 4-4m6 2a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z"></path></svg>
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<div><strong class="text-slate-100">首次政策定调 (2023年2月):</strong> “中央一号文件”首次提及“培育发展预制菜产业”,获国家层面认可。</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<svg class="w-6 h-6 text-amber-400 mr-3 mt-1 flex-shrink-0" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 9v2m0 4h.01m-6.938 4h13.856c1.54 0 2.502-1.667 1.732-3L13.732 4c-.77-1.333-2.694-1.333-3.464 0L3.34 16c-.77 1.333.192 3 1.732 3z"></path></svg>
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<div><strong class="text-slate-100">舆论风暴与信任危机 (2024年9月):</strong> “罗永浩吐槽西贝”事件引爆消费者对<strong class="text-amber-300">知情权</strong>的关切,成为行业规范化的强催化剂。</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<svg class="w-6 h-6 text-green-400 mr-3 mt-1 flex-shrink-0" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M9 12l2 2 4-4m6 2a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z"></path></svg>
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<div><strong class="text-slate-100">监管元年与行业洗牌 (2024年3月):</strong> 六部门联合发布《通知》,首次明确定义、收窄范围,并强制要求<strong class="text-green-300">“不添加防腐剂”</strong>。</div>
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</li>
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<svg class="w-6 h-6 text-sky-400 mr-3 mt-1 flex-shrink-0" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M13 10V3L4 14h7v7l9-11h-7z"></path></svg>
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<div><strong class="text-slate-100">国标落地前夜 (2024年至今):</strong> 《预制菜食品安全国家标准》草案通过审查,行业将从“野蛮生长”彻底转向“合规发展”。</div>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<!-- Market Size Chart -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-6 border border-slate-700">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-slate-100 mb-4">市场规模与增长预测</h3>
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<div id="market-size-chart" class="w-full h-80"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Core Logic and Analysis -->
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<div class="space-y-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-slate-100">核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-3 text-slate-300">
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<li><strong>核心驱动力:</strong>
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<ul class="list-decimal list-inside ml-6 mt-2 space-y-2">
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<li><strong>B端餐饮业的“工业革命”:</strong> 降本增效是根本驱动。预制菜可助餐企节省食材成本17%、人工及租金成本60%,净利率提升14%。头部连锁预制餐食占比已超85%,需求刚性。</li>
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<li><strong>C端消费习惯的变迁:</strong> 家庭小型化、“懒人经济”催生增量市场。53.6%的消费者购买次数增多。</li>
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<li><strong>政策的“有形之手”:</strong> 2024年3月《通知》是决定性变量,通过收窄定义、禁止防腐剂,将竞争焦点转向锁鲜技术、冷链能力,强力推动行业向头部集中。</li>
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</ul>
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</li>
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<li><strong>预期差分析:</strong>
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<ul class="list-decimal list-inside ml-6 mt-2 space-y-2">
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<li><strong>定义预期差:</strong> 市场普遍认知与国家狭义定义存在鸿沟。连锁餐饮的<strong class="text-teal-300">中央厨房自供品不属于预制菜</strong>,这极大地缓解了其合规与舆论压力,是市场可能忽略的关键点。</li>
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<li><strong>门槛预期差:</strong> 市场低估了“不添加防腐剂”的技术与成本门槛。昂贵设备(超200万/产线)和高昂冷链成本(占15-20%)将加速小企业出清。</li>
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<li><strong>规模与利润预期差:</strong> 万亿市场规模的宏大叙事背后,是供给过剩(66.4万家企业)和微薄利润(龙大美食预制菜利润率仅4-5%)的残酷现实。</li>
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</ul>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<!-- Catalysts & Future Path -->
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<div class="space-y-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-slate-100">关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h3>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-xl p-4 border border-slate-800">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-fuchsia-400 mb-2">近期催化剂 (3-6个月)</h4>
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<p>《预制菜食品安全国家标准》正式稿发布,核心看点是<strong class="text-white">强制明示制度</strong>的具体形式和执行力度,将倒逼供应链透明化。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-xl p-4 border border-slate-800">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-fuchsia-400 mb-2">长期发展路径</h4>
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<ul class="list-decimal list-inside text-sm space-y-1">
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<li><strong class="text-white">短期 (1-2年):</strong> 规范与洗牌期,中小产能淘汰。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">中期 (3-5年):</strong> 品牌与渠道深耕期,消费者信任修复。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">长期 (5-10年):</strong> 成熟与创新期,行业高度集中,出现供应链巨头。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Potential Risks -->
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-slate-100">潜在风险与挑战</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-slate-300">
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<li><strong>技术风险:</strong> 中式菜肴“锅气”风味还原难,是C端接受度的核心瓶颈;“零防腐剂”对锁鲜技术和成本控制提出持续挑战。</li>
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<li><strong>商业化风险:</strong> 消费者信任重建过程缓慢;高昂的冷链成本(占15-20%)与终端定价之间难以平衡。</li>
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<li><strong>政策与竞争风险:</strong> 监管执行存在不确定性;产能过剩可能导致新一轮低价竞争,拖累行业盈利。</li>
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<li><strong>信息交叉验证风险:</strong> 不同信源对预制菜定义和范畴存在差异,数据口径不一,投资者需注意甄别。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<!-- Investment Conclusion -->
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-slate-100">综合结论与投资启示</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300">预制菜已走过纯粹的主题炒作,进入由<strong class="text-sky-300">政策驱动基本面重构的产业整合阶段</strong>。这是一个长坡厚雪的赛道,但短期阵痛不可避免。</p>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-lg text-teal-300 mt-4">最具投资价值的细分环节:</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-slate-300">
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<li><strong>B端餐饮供应链龙头:</strong> 需求最刚性,商业模式最清晰,受舆论影响小。</li>
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<li><strong>具备成本优势的上游一体化企业:</strong> 掌控原材料成本,具备天然护城河。</li>
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<li><strong>核心支撑技术提供商:</strong> 高效冷链物流和新型保鲜技术将成为产业链的“卖水人”。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Supporting Data Sources -->
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<section class="space-y-4" x-data="{ open: '' }">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-white text-center section-title mx-auto">数据源与研报摘要</h2>
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<input type="radio" name="data-accordion" id="news-data" />
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新闻数据摘要
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</div>
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<div class="collapse-content px-6 pt-4 text-slate-300 space-y-4">
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<p><strong>核心事件:罗永浩与西贝的预制菜争议</strong>,该事件将消费者“知情权”问题推至舆论中心,直接导致西贝营业额大幅下降并最终致歉,成为推动行业规范化的关键社会事件。</p>
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<p><strong>政策与法规动态:</strong>国家卫健委主导的《预制菜食品安全国家标准》草案已通过审查,将首次提出“不添加防腐剂”等强制性指标,并可能强制餐饮门店披露预制菜使用情况。2024年3月六部门《通知》已明确预制菜官方定义,并将中央厨房制品、主食等排除在外。</p>
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<p><strong>行业影响:</strong>政策与舆情双驱动,行业规范化与集中度有望加速提升。股市预制菜概念活跃,得利斯、味知香等个股受消息影响上涨。分析师持续看好餐饮供应链方向。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card rounded-2xl">
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<input type="radio" name="data-accordion" id="roadshow-data" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">
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路演纪要精炼
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</div>
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<div class="collapse-content px-6 pt-4 text-slate-300 space-y-4">
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<p><strong>政策解读核心:</strong>2024年3月新规将“中央厨房自供产品”剔出预制菜监管,对拥有强大央厨体系的连锁餐饮构成实质性利好。同时,“禁止添加防腐剂”要求强制依赖冷链(成本增3-5%)或高温杀菌技术,大幅抬高了行业门槛,加速中小企业出清(如安徽阜阳70%预制菜企业停业整顿)。</p>
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<p><strong>行业现状与挑战:</strong>B端(团餐、外卖)主导,C端渗透率低。行业供给过剩,现存超66万家企业,但多数为中小微企业,产能利用率不足,低价竞争激烈。消费者信任度因“梅菜扣肉”等事件下降,需长期修复。</p>
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<p><strong>投资逻辑:</strong>短期利好具备冷链自建能力、成本控制突出、产品本地化能力强的头部企业(如安井食品、千味央厨、龙大美食)。长期需关注国标落地后的监管执行细节。</p>
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<p><strong>数据矛盾点:</strong>路演数据揭示,高端预制菜(佛跳墙)增速在2023年已同比下滑12%,证伪了“经济下行免疫”逻辑。同时指出,安井食品利润主力仍是速冻米面,龙大美食预制菜利润率仅4-5%,提示投资者需审慎看待宏观规模叙事与企业实际盈利能力的差距。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="data-accordion" id="report-data" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">
|
||
研究报告观点
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content px-6 pt-4 text-slate-300 space-y-4">
|
||
<p><strong>市场规模:</strong>研报普遍预测市场规模将持续高速增长,2022年已超4000亿元,预计到2026年将突破万亿元。但当前市场格局高度分散,CR10不足15%,对比日本有巨大提升空间。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>驱动因素:</strong>B端需求源于降本增效、餐饮连锁化率提升;C端需求源于家庭结构小型化和生活节奏加快。冷链物流的完善(“十四五”规划支持)为行业发展提供了基础设施保障。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>竞争要素:</strong>研报认为,行业竞争短期看产品与渠道,中期看全国产能布局(“销地产”模式),长期看成本控制能力。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>核心标的:</strong>安井食品(渠道与品牌复用优势)、千味央厨(深度绑定大B客户)、龙大美食(上游成本优势)、味知香(C端先发优势)、盖世食品(预制凉菜细分龙头)被多家研报重点覆盖。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Data Section -->
|
||
<section>
|
||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-white text-center section-title mx-auto my-12">核心产业链与相关标的</h2>
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl overflow-x-auto p-4 md:p-6">
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra w-full">
|
||
<thead class="text-slate-100 text-base">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>产业链环节</th>
|
||
<th>公司名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑/业务</th>
|
||
<th>细分领域</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody class="text-slate-300">
|
||
<!-- 上游 -->
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td rowspan="6" class="font-bold align-middle text-indigo-300">上游<br>原材料</td>
|
||
<td>龙大美食</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002726" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">002726</a></td>
|
||
<td>猪肉屠宰养殖一体化,具备原料成本优势,大力布局预制菜产能</td>
|
||
<td>猪/牛肉</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>圣农发展</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002299" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">002299</a></td>
|
||
<td>白羽鸡全产业链龙头,向下游预制菜延伸</td>
|
||
<td>鸡/鸭肉</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>益客食品</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301116" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">301116</a></td>
|
||
<td>鸭产业龙头,积极探索预制菜出海新模式</td>
|
||
<td>鸡/鸭肉</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>国联水产</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300094" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">300094</a></td>
|
||
<td>水产预制菜龙头,水产食品营收占比高</td>
|
||
<td>水产</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>双汇发展</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000895" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">000895</a></td>
|
||
<td>肉制品巨头,围绕“八大菜系”加强预制菜研发</td>
|
||
<td>猪/牛肉</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>得利斯</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002330" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">002330</a></td>
|
||
<td>较早布局预制菜的肉制品企业</td>
|
||
<td>猪/牛肉</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<!-- 中游 -->
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td rowspan="6" class="font-bold align-middle text-sky-300">中游<br>生产加工</td>
|
||
<td>安井食品</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603345" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">603345</a></td>
|
||
<td>速冻食品巨头,预制菜业务高速增长,渠道与品牌复用性强</td>
|
||
<td>速冻菜肴</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>千味央厨</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=001215" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">001215</a></td>
|
||
<td>B端速冻米面龙头,深度绑定百胜等大客户,定制化研发能力强</td>
|
||
<td>速冻面点/菜肴</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>味知香</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=605089" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">605089</a></td>
|
||
<td>A股“预制菜第一股”,深耕C端零售市场</td>
|
||
<td>专业预制菜(C端)</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>三全食品</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002216" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">002216</a></td>
|
||
<td>速冻食品行业领先企业,布局预制调制食品</td>
|
||
<td>速冻菜肴</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>盖世食品</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=920826" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">836826</a></td>
|
||
<td>预制凉菜细分市场领军企业,牵头起草行业标准</td>
|
||
<td>预制凉菜</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>春雪食品</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=605567" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">605567</a></td>
|
||
<td>鸡肉调理品核心供应商</td>
|
||
<td>鸡/鸭肉</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<!-- 下游 -->
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td rowspan="4" class="font-bold align-middle text-teal-300">下游<br>餐饮渠道</td>
|
||
<td>广州酒家</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603043" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">603043</a></td>
|
||
<td>老字号餐饮企业,布局广式预制菜品</td>
|
||
<td>线下餐饮</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>同庆楼</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=605108" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">605108</a></td>
|
||
<td>知名餐饮连锁,发力预制菜业务</td>
|
||
<td>线下餐饮</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>西安饮食</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000721" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">000721</a></td>
|
||
<td>老字号餐饮集合,预制菜概念活跃股</td>
|
||
<td>线下餐饮</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>巴比食品</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=605338" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">605338</a></td>
|
||
<td>早餐连锁,被视为C端预制食品渠道</td>
|
||
<td>线下餐饮</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<!-- 配套 -->
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td rowspan="4" class="font-bold align-middle text-amber-300">配套<br>支撑产业</td>
|
||
<td>海容冷链</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603187" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">603187</a></td>
|
||
<td>商用冷链设备供应商,受益于预制菜冷链需求提升</td>
|
||
<td>冷链运输/设备</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>日辰股份</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603755" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">603755</a></td>
|
||
<td>复合调味料供应商,服务于预制菜企业</td>
|
||
<td>调味品</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>中仑新材</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301565" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">301565</a></td>
|
||
<td>BOPA膜材可延长预制菜货架期,减少防腐剂使用</td>
|
||
<td>设备/膜材</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>华测检测</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300012" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">300012</a></td>
|
||
<td>具备预制菜检测资质,受益于行业监管趋严</td>
|
||
<td>检测服务</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Footer -->
|
||
<footer class="text-center mt-16 pb-8">
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-slate-500">
|
||
由 北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent:“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p class="text-xs text-slate-600 mt-2">
|
||
免责声明:本报告为AI合成数据,所有内容仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议,投资需谨慎。
|
||
</p>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
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