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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<title>上市潮玩盲盒公司 - 深度概念分析</title>
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body {
font-family: 'Poppins', sans-serif;
background-color: #0a0a0f;
background-image:
radial-gradient(ellipse 80% 80% at 50% -20%, rgba(120, 119, 198, 0.3), rgba(255, 255, 255, 0)),
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background: rgba(20, 20, 30, 0.6);
backdrop-filter: blur(16px) saturate(180%);
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display: grid;
gap: 1.5rem;
grid-template-columns: repeat(12, 1fr);
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border-radius: 1.5rem;
padding: 1.5rem;
}
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font-size: 1.25rem;
font-weight: 600;
margin-bottom: 0.75rem;
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font-size: 0.9rem;
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</style>
</head>
<body class="min-h-screen">
<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
<header class="text-center mb-12">
<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold text-white glow-text mb-4">上市潮玩盲盒公司</h1>
<p class="text-lg text-gray-400 max-w-3xl mx-auto">深度概念分析</p>
<div class="mt-4 text-xs text-gray-500">
<p>北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现</p>
<p>本报告为AI合成数据投资需谨慎。</p>
</div>
</header>
<main>
<!-- Concept Insight Section -->
<section class="mb-16">
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-center mb-8 text-white">概念核心洞察</h2>
<div class="bento-grid">
<!-- Core Viewpoint -->
<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12 lg:col-span-8">
<h3>
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 text-cyan-400" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M13 10V3L4 14h7v7l9-11h-7z" /></svg>
核心观点
</h3>
<p>上市潮玩盲盒公司赛道正经历从单一“盲盒”产品形态向成熟的“IP全产业链运营”生态的深刻转型。其核心驱动力已从早期依赖玩法新颖性彻底转变为<strong>可持续的IP创造、运营及全球化变现能力</strong>。当前行业龙头凭借强大的IP矩阵和渠道优势正加速巩固护城河进入由基本面驱动的全球扩张阶段而市场的主要预期差在于<strong>低估了其海外市场的增长潜力与“去盲盒化”后IP变现的广度</strong></p>
</div>
<!-- Market Perception -->
<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12 lg:col-span-4">
<h3>
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 text-purple-400" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M7 8h10M7 12h4m1 8l-4-4H5a2 2 0 01-2-2V6a2 2 0 012-2h14a2 2 0 012 2v8a2 2 0 01-2 2h-3l-4 4z" /></svg>
市场认知与情绪
</h3>
<p>市场情绪呈现明显分化。乐观情绪源于龙头公司超预期的业绩线上GMV高增长、海外爆发机构看好。谨慎情绪则来自监管层面对“商业陷阱”的警示以及对单一玩法可持续性的担忧。</p>
</div>
<!-- Core Logic -->
<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12 lg:col-span-6">
<h3>
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 text-green-400" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M9.663 17h4.673M12 3v1m6.364 1.636l-.707.707M21 12h-1M4 12H3m3.343-5.657l-.707-.707m2.828 9.9a5 5 0 117.072 0l-.548.547A3.374 3.374 0 0014 18.469V19a2 2 0 11-4 0v-.531c0-.895-.356-1.754-.988-2.386l-.548-.547z" /></svg>
核心逻辑驱动力
</h3>
<ul class="space-y-2 list-disc list-inside">
<li><strong>IP是灵魂:</strong> 盲盒只是载体持续创造能与消费者产生情感共鸣的IP形象是商业基石。</li>
<li><strong>运营放大价值:</strong> 通过限定发售、跨界联名、内容创作等手段延长IP生命周期并提升商业价值。</li>
<li><strong>全球化是星辰大海:</strong> 中国强大的供应链优势与普适性的艺术设计使得中国潮玩IP具备了文化出海的天然优势打开了数倍于国内市场的增长空间。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<!-- Expectation Gap -->
<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12 lg:col-span-6">
<h3>
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 text-yellow-400" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M4 6h16M4 12h16m-7 6h7" /></svg>
关键预期差分析
</h3>
<ul class="space-y-2 list-disc list-inside">
<li><strong>“盲盒公司” vs. “IP运营公司”:</strong> 市场仍带有“盲盒”标签但核心公司已在战略和收入结构上向综合性IP运营平台转型。</li>
<li><strong>国内“内卷” vs. 海外“蓝海”:</strong> 市场担忧国内增长天花板,但严重低估了海外市场的增长潜力(如泡泡玛特海外单店收入远高于国内)。</li>
<li><strong>自有IP vs. 授权IP:</strong> 泡泡玛特的自有IP模式壁垒高但布鲁可的成功证明将顶级授权IP与高性价比模式结合同样能创造巨大成功。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<!-- Catalysts -->
<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12 lg:col-span-6">
<h3>
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 text-red-400" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M17.657 18.657A8 8 0 016.343 7.343S7 9 9 10c0-2 .5-5 2.986-7.014A8.003 8.003 0 0122 12c0 3-1 7-6.343 6.657z" /></svg>
关键催化剂
</h3>
<strong class="text-white">近期 (3-6个月):</strong>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside mt-2 mb-4">
<li>新爆款IP出现复刻LABUBU现象。</li>
<li>海外关键市场(北美/欧洲)旗舰店引爆热潮。</li>
<li>与全球顶级游戏/影视IP的联名产品发布。</li>
<li>卡游、52TOYS等公司成功上市。</li>
</ul>
<strong class="text-white">长期发展路径:</strong>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside mt-2">
<li>IP矩阵化与内容化 (对标迪士尼)。</li>
<li>品类多元化 (服饰、卡牌、AI玩具等)。</li>
<li>渠道全球化与线上化 (海外占比达50%)。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<!-- Risks -->
<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12 lg:col-span-6">
<h3>
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 text-orange-400" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 9v2m0 4h.01m-6.938 4h13.856c1.54 0 2.502-1.667 1.732-3L13.732 4c-.77-1.333-2.694-1.333-3.464 0L3.34 16c-.77 1.333.192 3 1.732 3z" /></svg>
潜在风险与挑战
</h3>
<ul class="space-y-2 list-disc list-inside">
<li><strong>IP风险:</strong> 核心风险。IP生命周期不确定新IP孵化失败或核心IP热度下滑将直接影响业绩。</li>
<li><strong>商业化风险:</strong> 消费者审美疲劳,二级市场泡沫破裂反噬一级市场。</li>
<li><strong>政策与竞争风险:</strong> 监管政策收紧是最大不确定性。新玩家和跨界者涌入导致竞争加剧。</li>
<li><strong>信息交叉验证风险:</strong> 行业景气度存在矛盾数据点(专家称热度下降 vs 线上数据高增),需辨别结构性分化。</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Data Visualization -->
<section class="mb-16">
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-center mb-8 text-white">数据透视</h2>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-6">
<div id="market-share-chart" style="width: 100%; height: 400px;"></div>
</div>
<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-6">
<div id="popmart-revenue-chart" style="width: 100%; height: 400px;"></div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Supporting Data Section -->
<section class="mb-16">
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-center mb-8 text-white">多维数据源整合</h2>
<div class="space-y-4">
<!-- News -->
<div class="collapse collapse-arrow" x-data="{ open: false }">
<input type="checkbox" @click="open = !open" />
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-white">新闻洞察</div>
<div class="collapse-content">
<div class="p-4 space-y-4">
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-cyan-300">泡泡玛特 (Pop Mart)</h4>
<p><strong>业绩:</strong> 线上GMV持续高增长7月同比+71%9月同比+150%)。</p>
<p><strong>核心IP:</strong> LABUBU热度扩散效应显著带动二手市场价格上扬稀有款溢价达1567.79%),并成为银行营销赠品。</p>
<p><strong>战略:</strong> 2024年目标125亿海外预计占比46%。新业务线Popop配饰运营良好。</p>
<p><strong>风险:</strong> 面临IP侵权问题海关查获侵权盲盒</p>
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-cyan-300">名创优品 (MINISO) / TOPTOY</h4>
<p><strong>业绩:</strong> 线上GMV爆发式增长名创7月同比+654%TOPTOY 10月同比+317%)。</p>
<p><strong>核心IP:</strong> 受益于哇库库wakuku、Chiikawa等新系列热卖。</p>
<p><strong>渠道:</strong> 旗下Toptoy承接多家潮玩线下首发渠道稀缺性彰显。</p>
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-cyan-300">布鲁可 (BLOCKS)</h4>
<p><strong>业绩:</strong> 线上GMV平稳增长10月同比+71%)。</p>
<p><strong>产品:</strong> 奥特曼、变形金刚等系列反馈理想。9.9元星辰版产品热卖带动下沉市场拓展。</p>
<p><strong>战略:</strong> 2025年IP将持续丰富过亿元IP将达7-8个下沉与海外市场拓展顺利。</p>
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-cyan-300">行业宏观</h4>
<p><strong>景气度:</strong> 潮玩行业高景气二手交易单量年同比增长473%。</p>
<p><strong>监管:</strong> 中消协点名质量问题,人民日报等媒体警示“商业陷阱”和对未成年人风险,成为板块股价调整压力。</p>
<p><strong>政策:</strong> 东莞出台1.2亿元政策支持潮玩产业发展。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Roadshows -->
<div class="collapse collapse-arrow" x-data="{ open: false }">
<input type="checkbox" @click="open = !open" />
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-white">路演纪要</div>
<div class="collapse-content">
<div class="p-4 space-y-4">
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-purple-300">泡泡玛特 (Pop Mart)</h4>
<p><strong>市场地位:</strong> 盲盒领域一家独大通过出海和IP化巩固地位。</p>
<p><strong>财务:</strong> 2024 H1营收45.6亿(+62%)净利9.2亿(+93%)。海外收入13亿(+200%)。毛绒玩具收入占比从0提升至10%。</p>
<p><strong>IP策略:</strong> 经典IP持续焕新Molly收入7.8亿增速90%+与迪士尼、卢浮宫等全球IP联动。</p>
<p><strong>海外扩张:</strong> 东南亚收入占比50%欧美单店收入1163万为国内399万近3倍。2025-2026年北美、欧洲加速开店。</p>
<p><strong>估值:</strong> 预测2025年净利润39亿基于40倍PE目标价约125元。</p>
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-purple-300">布鲁可 (Brook)</h4>
<p><strong>市场定位:</strong> 低价拼搭玩具细分市场龙头占据国内30%拼搭角色玩具市场份额。</p>
<p><strong>财务:</strong> 2024 H1总收入超10亿毛利率从不足40%提升至超50%。2024年报营收22.4亿(+156%)经调整利润5.85亿。</p>
<p><strong>IP策略:</strong> 绑定奥特曼、变形金刚等头部IP。IP持续多元化奥特曼IP占比从57%降至41%,新增三丽鸥、宝可梦、星球大战等。</p>
<p><strong>渠道:</strong> 聚焦二三线城市及县城终端门店覆盖15万家。9.9元系列触达四到六线城市。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Research -->
<div class="collapse collapse-arrow" x-data="{ open: false }">
<input type="checkbox" @click="open = !open" />
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-white">研报精粹</div>
<div class="collapse-content">
<div class="p-4 space-y-4">
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-green-300">泡泡玛特 (9992.HK)</h4>
<p><strong>市场份额:</strong> 占据中国潮玩市场13.6%-28%的市场份额,位居首位。</p>
<p><strong>会员体系:</strong> 累计注册会员超3893万人会员复购率43.9%贡献销售额占比92.8%。</p>
<p><strong>IP矩阵:</strong> 旗下四大IPTHE MONSTERS, MOLLY, SKULLPANDA, CRYBABY营收均过10亿元。</p>
<p><strong>海外市场:</strong> 2024 H1海外营收13.51亿元同比增长259.6%收入占比接近30%。</p>
<p><strong>盈利预测:</strong> 预计2024-2026年归母净利润为27.3/39.6/52.2亿元给予买入评级目标价125.6港元 (FY25 40x PE)。</p>
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-green-300">布鲁可 (00325.HK)</h4>
<p><strong>市场地位:</strong> 中国最大的拼搭角色类玩具企业市场份额30.3%,领先万代和乐高。</p>
<p><strong>核心战略:</strong> “盲盒+高性价比”将“盲盒”概念迁移至拼搭玩具核心价位39元。</p>
<p><strong>财务表现:</strong> 2024年营收22.41亿元(+155.6%)净利润5.85亿净利率达26.1%。</p>
<p><strong>估值:</strong> 参考泡泡玛特给予2025年40x PE对应6个月目标价135.64港元。</p>
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-green-300">行业趋势</h4>
<p><strong>市场规模:</strong> 预计2030年中国盲盒市场规模将达到850亿元。</p>
<p><strong>竞争格局:</strong> 行业CR5从38%升至52%,头部企业集中度持续提升。</p>
<p><strong>产品趋势:</strong> 传统盲盒增速放缓,功能性盲盒(教育、健康)增速飙升。AI设计工具将开发周期缩短60%。</p>
<p><strong>监管政策:</strong> 《盲盒经营行为规范指引》规定不得向未满8周岁未成年人销售并要求提高透明度。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Stock Data Section -->
<section>
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-center mb-8 text-white">相关上市公司概览</h2>
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-2xl p-4">
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-white p-2">核心概念股</h3>
<table class="table table-zebra w-full">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>股票名称</th>
<th>股票代码</th>
<th>核心逻辑</th>
<th class="w-1/2">其他标签</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>泡泡玛特</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=09992" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">09992.HK</a></td>
<td class="font-semibold">上市潮玩盲盒公司</td>
<td>
<strong>市值:</strong> 3583亿<br>
<strong>IP 粉丝数:</strong> 5000万+<br>
<strong>依托IP:</strong> 签订创作者IP合作协议<br>
<strong>材质:</strong> PVC 搪胶、毛绒、金属<br>
<strong>价格区间:</strong> 常规款 59-69 元, 限量款 299-999 元<br>
<strong>故事性:</strong> 深度绑定 IP 原创故事线<br>
<strong>增值空间:</strong> 增值空间最大
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>名创优品</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=09896" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">09896.HK</a></td>
<td>上市潮玩盲盒公司</td>
<td>
<strong>市值:</strong> 445亿<br>
<strong>IP 粉丝数:</strong> 100万+<br>
<strong>依托IP:</strong> 依托三丽鸥、迪士尼等授权 IP<br>
<strong>材质:</strong> PVC 塑料、毛绒材质<br>
<strong>价格区间:</strong> 17-69 元, 主力价格带 39-49 元<br>
<strong>故事性:</strong> 依赖 IP 原生故事,缺乏自主叙事<br>
<strong>增值空间:</strong> 增值空间小
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>新经典</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603096" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">603096.SH</a></td>
<td>上市潮玩盲盒公司</td>
<td>
<strong>市值:</strong> 31亿<br>
<strong>IP 粉丝数:</strong> 1000万+<br>
<strong>依托IP:</strong> 依托“bibi 动物园”IP 形成治愈系内容矩阵<br>
<strong>材质:</strong> PVC 搪胶、植绒、木材<br>
<strong>价格区间:</strong> 69 元 (统一零售价),与绘本捆绑销售<br>
<strong>故事性:</strong> 原创故事体系完整<br>
<strong>增值空间:</strong> 增值空间小
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>金运激光</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300220" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">300220.SZ</a></td>
<td>上市潮玩盲盒公司</td>
<td>
<strong>市值:</strong> 31亿<br>
<strong>IP 粉丝数:</strong> 50万+<br>
<strong>依托IP:</strong> 合作 IP 超 100 个,含迪士尼、漫威<br>
<strong>材质:</strong> PVC 主体 + NFC 芯片<br>
<strong>价格区间:</strong> 29.9-59.6 元, NFT 数字盲盒 200-500 元<br>
<strong>故事性:</strong> 结合虚拟场景叙事,数字内容延展性强<br>
<strong>增值空间:</strong> 增值空间小
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>52TOYS</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=810758" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">810758.HK</a></td>
<td>上市潮玩盲盒公司</td>
<td>
<strong>市值:</strong> IPO市值100亿<br>
<strong>IP 粉丝数:</strong> 470万+<br>
<strong>依托IP:</strong> 自有 IP“猛兽匣”合作IP 蜡笔小新<br>
<strong>材质:</strong> PVC、ABS 塑料,合金材质<br>
<strong>价格区间:</strong> 39-199 元, 高端机甲系列超 500 元<br>
<strong>故事性:</strong> 自有 IP 故事线较弱,授权 IP 依赖原作<br>
<strong>增值空间:</strong> 增值空间小
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-2xl p-4 mt-8">
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-white p-2">产业链相关公司异动分析</h3>
<table class="table table-zebra w-full text-sm">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>股票</th>
<th>代码</th>
<th>日期</th>
<th>涨幅</th>
<th class="w-2/3">异动原因摘要</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>永利股份</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300230" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">300230</a></td>
<td>2025-06-09</td>
<td><span class="text-red-400">12.69%</span></td>
<td><strong>核心驱动: IP经济概念活跃 & 玩具代工业务。</strong> 公司剥离汽车代工更专注于玩具、积木等精密模塑业务。市场关注其为高端玩具品牌代工的能力受益于IP经济热度。</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>高乐股份</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002348" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002348</a></td>
<td>2025-06-16</td>
<td><span class="text-red-400">10.08%</span></td>
<td><strong>核心驱动: 潮玩+IP经济+3D打印。</strong> 公司是泡泡玛特代工方直接受益于行业热度。同时与迪士尼、初音未来等IP合作并布局3D打印材料业务形成多重驱动。</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>锦泓集团</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603518" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">603518</a></td>
<td>2025-08-07</td>
<td><span class="text-red-400">10.05%</span></td>
<td><strong>核心驱动: IP衍生品("谷子经济")放量。</strong> 旗下Teenie Weenie×B站限定谷子上线首日销售破300万市场首次确认其IP衍生品业务变现能力被定义为“谷子经济”核心标的。</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>苏州龙杰</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603332" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">603332</a></td>
<td>2025-06-10</td>
<td><span class="text-red-400">10.02%</span></td>
<td><strong>核心驱动: 潮玩IP面料供应。</strong> 公司是泡泡玛特爆款IP拉布布(Labubu)系列面料供应商受益于IP全球热度攀升。</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>华立科技</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301011" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">301011</a></td>
<td>2025-06-12</td>
<td><span class="text-red-400">8.82%</span></td>
<td><strong>核心驱动: 泡泡玛特合作&智能零售终端。</strong> 公司为泡泡玛特提供AI识别自动贩卖机及游戏化系统助力其海内外扩张设备复购率和单终端销售额高。</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>电广传媒</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000917" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000917</a></td>
<td>2025-06-12</td>
<td><span class="text-red-400">6.56%</span></td>
<td><strong>核心驱动: 潮玩生态布局。</strong> 子公司布局潮玩二手交易平台"娃友圈"承接头部潮玩IP流通需求构建"内容IP→潮玩开发→二手流通"的商业闭环。</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>光线传媒</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300251" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">300251</a></td>
<td>2025-06-12</td>
<td><span class="text-red-400">5.81%</span></td>
<td><strong>核心驱动: 哪吒IP多元化开发。</strong> 明确表示将洽谈合作《哪吒》主题乐园从影视制作向IP多元化运营转型IP价值重估预期强烈。</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</section>
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<p>&copy; 2024 北京价值前沿科技有限公司. All Rights Reserved.</p>
<p>AI Generated Report. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.</p>
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