453 lines
29 KiB
HTML
453 lines
29 KiB
HTML
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<title>九天无人机 | 概念深度解析</title>
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<body class="p-4 sm:p-6 md:p-8">
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<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto space-y-8">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center space-y-4 py-8">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold bg-clip-text text-transparent bg-gradient-to-br from-white to-cyan-300">
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九天无人机
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</h1>
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<p class="text-lg md:text-xl text-slate-300">概念深度解析</p>
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<div class="glow-divider max-w-lg mx-auto"></div>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-500 pt-2">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 呈现 | 本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。</p>
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</header>
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<!-- Bento Grid for Core Data -->
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<section class="bento-grid">
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<div class="glass-card bento-item bento-item-1 p-6 space-y-4">
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<h2 class="section-title">核心摘要与定位</h2>
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<p class="text-slate-300">“九天”是一款备受瞩目的重型、察打一体无人机，因其独特的挂载能力被称为“空中无人机航母”和“中国首款蜂群母舰无人机”。该无人机填补了我国灵活配置重型无人机市场的空白，标志着中国已成为全球研制灵活配置重型无人机第一方阵的领跑者。</p>
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<div class="flex flex-wrap gap-4 pt-2">
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<div class="badge badge-outline border-cyan-400 text-cyan-400">空中无人机航母</div>
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<div class="badge badge-outline border-purple-400 text-purple-400">蜂群母舰</div>
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<div class="badge badge-outline border-green-400 text-green-400">重型察打一体</div>
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<div class="badge badge-outline border-yellow-400 text-yellow-400">军民两用</div>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card bento-item bento-item-2 p-6 flex flex-col justify-between">
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<div>
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<h2 class="section-title">研发与首飞</h2>
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<p class="text-slate-300 mt-4">“九天”无人机04架机已完成机体结构装配，正在进行系统安装与测试。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="text-center mt-4">
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<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">预计首飞时间</p>
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<p class="text-3xl font-bold text-white tracking-wider">2025年6月底</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card bento-item bento-item-3 p-6">
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<h2 class="section-title">性能指标</h2>
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<div id="performance-chart" style="width: 100%; height: 300px;"></div>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card bento-item bento-item-4 p-6 space-y-4">
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<h2 class="section-title">关键信息矛盾点</h2>
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<div class="alert bg-yellow-900/30 border border-yellow-500/50 text-yellow-300">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="stroke-current shrink-0 h-6 w-6" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 9v2m0 4h.01m-6.938 4h13.856c1.54 0 2.502-1.667 1.732-3L13.732 4c-.77-1.333-2.694-1.333-3.464 0L3.34 16c-.77 1.333.192 3 1.732 3z" /></svg>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-bold">产品定位冲突</h3>
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<div class="text-xs">新闻与研报普遍将其定位为<span class="font-bold">16吨级重型无人机</span>，但一份路演数据(2025-06-03)却将其归类为<span class="font-bold">小型无人机整机厂商</span>。此矛盾点是当前市场信息的重大交叉验证风险。</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<h2 class="section-title mt-4">作战定位</h2>
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<p class="text-slate-300">核心特点是腹内集成的“异构蜂巢任务舱”，可容纳上百枚巡飞弹或小型无人机，实现从“单点打击”到“分布式、饱和式作战”的跨越。拥有8个外挂点，可挂载1000公斤级制导炸弹、空空/空地/反舰导弹和巡飞弹等。</p>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Insight Section -->
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<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 space-y-6">
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<h2 class="section-title text-2xl">【概念Insight：九天无人机】</h2>
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<div class="space-y-4 prose prose-invert max-w-none prose-p:text-slate-300 prose-li:text-slate-300 prose-h3:text-cyan-300 prose-h3:text-xl prose-strong:text-white">
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<h3>0. 概念事件</h3>
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<p>“九天无人机”概念的核心是一型在第十五届中国航展上首次亮相的重型、察打一体无人机。由<strong>海格通信(002465)</strong>的控股子公司<strong>西安驰达</strong>承制，凭借其“空中无人机航母”和“蜂群母舰”定位，迅速成为市场焦点。其核心催化剂为<strong>预计于2025年6月底完成的无人机首飞任务</strong>，受此预期影响，A股无人机板块已被激活，显示出强大的市场号召力。</p>
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<h3>1. 核心观点摘要</h3>
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<p>“九天无人机”概念是典型的由<strong>单一颠覆性产品驱动</strong>的、处于<strong>事件催化前夕</strong>的主题投资机会。其核心驱动力源于“蜂群母舰”这一前瞻作战理念的技术落地，叠加了军民两用（特别是低空经济）的广阔想象空间。当前概念正处在从预期发酵向量产验证过渡的关键节点，信息的高度不确定性和认知偏差构成了其高赔率与高风险并存的核心特征。</p>
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<h3>2. 概念的核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>技术范式突破:</strong> 核心价值在于作为“空中无人机航母”的平台属性。“异构蜂巢任务舱”能搭载并释放上百枚小型无人机或巡飞弹，实现了从“单点打击”到“分布式、饱和式作战/作业”的跨越。</li>
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<li><strong>国产高端装备补完:</strong> 填补了我国<strong>灵活配置重型无人机市场的空白</strong>，标志着中国在该领域进入全球第一方阵，符合国家高端制造和国防现代化战略。</li>
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<li><strong>军民两用潜力:</strong> 军事能力与民用领域的智能物流、应急救援等场景高度契合，尤其与“低空经济”政策形成共振。</li>
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<li><strong>市场情绪与预期差:</strong> 市场热度极高，情绪乐观，普遍聚焦于其颠覆性技术和“首飞”催化剂。然而，市场普遍忽略了“重型”与“小型”无人机的<strong>信息矛盾</strong>，以及从首飞到量产的巨大不确定性，这构成了关键的预期差。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3>3. 关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>近期催化剂 (未来3-6个月):</strong>
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<ol>
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<li><strong>首飞成功 (~2025年6月底):</strong> 最重要的二元期权式催化剂。</li>
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<li><strong>公布首飞关键数据:</strong> 验证设计指标。</li>
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<li><strong>意向订单转为正式合同:</strong> 验证商业化前景。</li>
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</ol>
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</li>
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<li><strong>长期发展路径:</strong>
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<ol>
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<li><strong>技术验证期 (2025-2026):</strong> 密集试飞，验证平台与“蜂巢”系统。</li>
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<li><strong>小批量试用期 (2026-2027):</strong> 获得军方或民用首批试用订单。</li>
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<li><strong>定型与量产期 (2028+):</strong> 军品列装，民品规模化应用。</li>
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</ol>
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</li>
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</ul>
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<h3>4. 产业链与核心公司深度剖析</h3>
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<p><strong>产业链图谱:</strong></p>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>上游 (核心零部件):</strong> 机体结构 (西安驰达, 利君股份), 动力系统 (航发动力), 航电系统 (航天电子, 北方导航)。</li>
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<li><strong>中游 (整机集成):</strong> 核心总包方 - <strong>海格通信(002465)</strong> (通过控股子公司西安驰达)。</li>
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<li><strong>下游 (应用领域):</strong> 军用 (空/海军), 民用 (大型物流, 应急管理)。</li>
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</ul>
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<p><strong>核心玩家对比:</strong></p>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>海格通信(002465):</strong> <strong>逻辑最纯粹的领导者</strong>。直接主导项目，股价与“九天”成败直接绑定，高风险高回报。</li>
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<li><strong>中无人机(688297):</strong> <strong>强大的行业标杆与潜在竞合者</strong>。与“九天”同属航空工业集团体系，存在竞争或合作的可能，是“九天”必须对标的标杆。</li>
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<li><strong>利君股份(002651) / 北方导航(600435):</strong> <strong>确定性较高的核心供应商</strong>。投资逻辑清晰，风险相对较低，属于主题投资中更为稳健的“卖铲人”。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3>5. 潜在风险与挑战</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>技术风险:</strong> “蜂巢”系统的协同与通信是巨大技术瓶颈；16吨级重型无人机的飞控和可靠性面临严峻考验。</li>
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<li><strong>商业化风险:</strong> 高昂成本可能限制民用推广；军用需与成熟的“翼龙”、“彩虹”系列争夺预算。</li>
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<li><strong>信息交叉验证风险:</strong>
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<ol>
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<li><strong>产品定位矛盾:</strong> “重型”与路演中的“小型”描述冲突是当前最大信息风险。</li>
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<li><strong>主体归属模糊:</strong> 同时提及海格通信与中无人机控股股东，项目确切主导方存在模糊地带。</li>
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<li><strong>名称混淆风险:</strong> 华大九天、特宝生物(收购九天生物)等名称相似，易误导投资者。</li>
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</ol>
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</li>
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</ul>
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<h3>6. 综合结论与投资启示</h3>
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<p>“九天无人机”概念目前明确处于<strong>主题炒作阶段</strong>，由“首飞”这一强烈的单一事件预期驱动。其技术叙事具有足够的颠覆性和想象力，使其成为值得高度关注的潜在“价值重估”型主题。</p>
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<p><strong>最具投资价值的细分环节:</strong></p>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>核心平台 (高风险高收益):</strong> <strong>海格通信(002465)</strong>，股价弹性最大。</li>
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<li><strong>确定性供应商 (稳健):</strong> <strong>利君股份(002651)</strong>、<strong>北方导航(600435)</strong>等，分享主题红利且风险敞口更小。</li>
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</ul>
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<p><strong>需重点跟踪和验证的关键指标:</strong></p>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>事件指标:</strong> 2025年6月底首飞是否成功、如期。</li>
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<li><strong>订单指标:</strong> “意向订单”的合同转化率、金额及客户背景。</li>
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<li><strong>性能指标:</strong> 首飞后披露的实际飞行数据与设计指标的匹配度。</li>
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<li><strong>澄清指标:</strong> 官方对“小型无人机”矛盾信息、以及与中无人机/航空工业集团关系的澄清。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Stock Data Section -->
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<section class="space-y-8">
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<!-- Related Stocks Table -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="section-title text-2xl mb-6">相关标的梳理</h2>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="table table-zebra w-full">
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<thead>
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<tr>
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<th>股票名称</th>
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<th>股票代码</th>
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<th>关联原因</th>
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<th>标签</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td>海格通信</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002465" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">002465</a></td>
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<td>公司控股子公司西安驰达承制的“九天”灵活配置重型无人机，项目正稳步推进中。</td>
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<td><div class="badge badge-accent">直接相关</div></td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>中无人机</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688297" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">688297</a></td>
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<td>九天无人机由公司控股股东中国航空工业集团公司下属单位研发。</td>
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<td><div class="badge badge-accent">直接相关</div></td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>航发动力</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600893" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">600893</a></td>
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<td>国内唯一全谱系军用航空发动机供应商，为无人机提供动力系统支持。</td>
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<td><div class="badge badge-info">配套技术与关键部件</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>航天电子</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600879" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">600879</a></td>
|
||
<td>提供无人机导航芯片及通信模块，公司无人系统产品中已有无人机量产并交付。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-warning">潜在利好</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>光威复材</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300699" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">300699</a></td>
|
||
<td>公司有多款碳纤维以及预浸料已经在多种不同功能/场景的无人机上得到应用。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-warning">潜在利好</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>中航高科</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600862" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">600862</a></td>
|
||
<td>公司已经为低空电动飞行器和无人机制造提供树脂基碳纤维预浸料等原材料产品。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-warning">潜在利好</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>航天彩虹</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002389" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">002389</a></td>
|
||
<td>公司外贸产品订单处于历史较高水平，彩虹系列为主要销售型号，是行业重要标杆。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-warning">潜在利好</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>纵横股份</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688070" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">688070</a></td>
|
||
<td>公司在研产品包括大型固定翼无人机产品研发、无人值守系统产品研发等。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-secondary">整机制造与核心系统</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>中航机载</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600372" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">600372</a></td>
|
||
<td>公司为航空机载系统旗舰型上市平台，为部分无人机产品提供机载系统配套。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-info">配套技术与关键部件</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Rise Analysis Table -->
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title text-2xl mb-6">涨幅分析补充</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>代码</th>
|
||
<th>日期</th>
|
||
<th>涨幅</th>
|
||
<th>驱动原因解析</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>利君股份</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002651" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">002651</a></td>
|
||
<td>2025-06-09</td>
|
||
<td><span class="text-error font-bold">+10.05%</span></td>
|
||
<td class="text-xs whitespace-pre-line"><strong>核心结论:</strong> 受益于军工飞机和九天无人机概念双重驱动。<br><strong>驱动概念:</strong> 军工飞机 + 九天无人机 + 高端装备<br><strong>解析:</strong> "九天"无人机预计6月底首飞，公司作为无人机结构件供应商参与相关业务，直接受益。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>北方导航</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600435" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">600435</a></td>
|
||
<td>2025-06-30</td>
|
||
<td><span class="text-error font-bold">+10.02%</span></td>
|
||
<td class="text-xs whitespace-pre-line"><strong>核心结论:</strong> 军工重组预期叠加精确制导弹药订单，引爆三连板。<br><strong>驱动概念:</strong> 军工重组 + 精确制导 + 无人机<br><strong>解析:</strong> 公司为“九天”无人机提供惯性导航系统，首飞窗口临近，情绪共振。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>北方长龙</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301357" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">301357</a></td>
|
||
<td>2025-06-13</td>
|
||
<td><span class="text-error font-bold">+20.0%</span></td>
|
||
<td class="text-xs whitespace-pre-line"><strong>核心结论:</strong> 中东冲突引发军工板块走强。<br><strong>驱动概念:</strong> 军工 + 无人机<br><strong>解析:</strong> "空中无人机航母"九天无人机即将首飞，公司涉及无人机业务，具备双重概念。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>捷强装备</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300875" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">300875</a></td>
|
||
<td>2025-06-13</td>
|
||
<td><span class="text-error font-bold">+20.01%</span></td>
|
||
<td class="text-xs whitespace-pre-line"><strong>核心结论:</strong> 受国际局势刺激，叠加其核污染防治和军工概念属性。<br><strong>驱动概念:</strong> 核污染防治 + 国防军工 + 无人机<br><strong>解析:</strong> 九天无人机即将首飞，带动低空经济发展，公司研发核生化侦检无人机系统。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>晨曦航空</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300581" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">300581</a></td>
|
||
<td>2025-06-13</td>
|
||
<td><span class="text-error font-bold">+20.03%</span></td>
|
||
<td class="text-xs whitespace-pre-line"><strong>核心结论:</strong> 受益于军工板块整体走强及装备信息化建设提速预期。<br><strong>驱动概念:</strong> 军工装备信息化 + 无人机<br><strong>解析:</strong> 九天无人机即将首飞，带动无人机产业链关注度提升，公司航空电子设备可应用于无人机领域。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
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|
||
|
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