387 lines
25 KiB
HTML
387 lines
25 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>深度行研 | 人形机器人-滚柱丝杆丝杠</title>
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js" defer></script>
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:root {
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font-family: 'Noto Sans SC', sans-serif;
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background-color: #01000a;
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color: #e0e0e0;
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overflow-x: hidden;
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background-image:
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radial-gradient(ellipse 25% 40% at 20% 20%, rgba(0, 190, 255, 0.15) 0%, transparent 100%),
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</head>
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<body class="min-h-screen">
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<div class="fixed top-0 left-0 w-full h-full z-[-1] overflow-hidden">
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<div class="absolute top-[10%] left-[10%] w-[600px] h-[600px] bg-cyan-500/10 rounded-full filter blur-3xl opacity-30 animate-pulse animation-delay-2000"></div>
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<div class="absolute bottom-[5%] right-[5%] w-[500px] h-[500px] bg-fuchsia-500/10 rounded-full filter blur-3xl opacity-30 animate-pulse animation-delay-4000"></div>
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</div>
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
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<header class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold tracking-widest uppercase bg-clip-text text-transparent bg-gradient-to-r from-cyan-400 via-white to-fuchsia-500 py-2">
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人形机器人 · 滚柱丝杆
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</h1>
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<p class="mt-4 text-neutral-400">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 呈现</p>
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</header>
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<main>
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<!-- INSIGHT Section -->
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<section id="insight" class="mb-16">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-10 shadow-2xl glow-border">
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<h2 class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold mb-6 text-cyan-glow tracking-wider">核心洞察 (Insight)</h2>
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<div class="space-y-8 text-neutral-300 text-base leading-relaxed">
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-fuchsia-glow mb-2">0. 概念事件：产业化前夜的脉搏</h3>
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<p>人形机器人，特别是以特斯拉Optimus为代表的电驱方案，其产业化进程加速是整个概念的宏观背景。行星滚柱丝杠，因其高承载、高精度、长寿命和紧凑体积，被视作实现高精度、高爆发力直线运动的<strong class="text-white">核心传动部件</strong>。工信部发布《人形机器人创新发展指导意见》，明确将“高精度滚柱丝杠”列为关键零部件国产化攻关清单，将概念从企业行为提升至国家战略层面。资本密集投入标志着行业从“讲故事”进入“建产能”的实质阶段，部分企业已披露实质性订单与量产计划，预示着量产曙光初现。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-cyan-glow mb-2">1. 核心观点摘要：机遇与挑战并存</h3>
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<p>“人形机器人-滚柱丝杠”概念正处在<strong class="text-white">从0到1的产业化爆发前夜</strong>。其核心驱动力源于<strong class="text-white">特斯拉引领的产业趋势</strong>与<strong class="text-white">国家战略层面的国产替代政策</strong>的双重共振。未来潜力巨大，但短期内，其价值兑现高度依赖于“<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">降本、增效、提良率</strong>”这一核心制造难题的突破，其中<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">加工工艺的收敛</strong>和<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">核心设备的自主可控</strong>是决定成败的关键。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-fuchsia-glow mb-2">2. 核心逻辑与市场预期差</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 pl-2">
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<li><strong class="text-white">驱动力：</strong>确定性的<strong class="text-cyan-400">万亿级增量市场</strong>、技术壁垒下的<strong class="text-cyan-400">高利润预期</strong>（毛利可达60%）、国产替代的<strong class="text-cyan-400">紧迫性与必然性</strong>。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">预期差1 (“宏大叙事” vs “骨感现实”)：</strong>市场沉浸于百亿市场空间，但多数公司仍处“送样验证”阶段，从样品到稳定、低成本大规模量产存在巨大鸿沟。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">预期差2 (“降本奇迹” vs “工艺困境”)：</strong>市场预期单价从>1万元降至<1000元，但磨削、硬车、热轧等工艺均存瓶颈，降本路径难度可能被低估。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">预期差3 (“明星公司” vs “隐形冠军”)：</strong>市场聚焦中游制造商，但核心瓶颈在上游的<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">加工设备（高端磨床）和刀具</strong>，“卖铲人”逻辑可能被市场相对忽视。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-cyan-glow mb-2">3. 关键催化剂与发展路径</h3>
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<p class="mb-2"><strong class="text-white">近期催化剂 (3-6个月)：</strong>特斯拉Optimus供应商名单确认、头部厂商实质性量产订单公告、国产高精度磨床的商业化应用、降本工艺的突破性进展披露。</p>
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<p><strong class="text-white">长期发展路径：</strong></p>
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<ol class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-2 pl-2">
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<li><strong class="text-fuchsia-400">阶段一 (当前-2026)：</strong>技术验证与产能军备赛。核心是“跑通工艺、提升良率、锁定客户”。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-fuchsia-400">阶段二 (2026-2028)：</strong>成本与规模化竞争。高效工艺路线和自动化产线成为关键。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-fuchsia-400">阶段三 (2028以后)：</strong>平台化与生态竞争。从单一丝杠向“电机+丝杠+减速器”的线性执行器模组方案演进。</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-fuchsia-glow mb-2">5. 潜在风险与挑战</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 pl-2">
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<li><strong class="text-white">技术风险：</strong>工艺路线不确定性，良率瓶颈（当前仅50%）是商业化的核心障碍。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">商业化风险：</strong>从超1万元到目标1000元的成本鸿沟巨大；下游需求不及预期。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">政策与竞争风险：</strong>高端设备进口限制；国内数十家企业涌入赛道，可能引发恶性竞争。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-cyan-glow mb-2">6. 综合结论与投资启示</h3>
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<p class="mb-2">概念正处在<strong class="text-white">从主题炒作向基本面驱动过渡的关键阶段</strong>。下一阶段，市场焦点将从“谁有布局”转向“<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">谁先量产、谁成本更低、谁拿核心订单</strong>”。</p>
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<p><strong class="text-white">最具投资价值的细分环节：</strong></p>
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<ol class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-2 pl-2">
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-400">上游核心设备商 (高精度磨床)：</strong>确定性最高，“军火供应”逻辑，竞争格局清晰。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-400">具备一体化/平台化潜力的中游龙头：</strong>通过垂直整合构建成本和技术护城河。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-400">技术路径清晰且已获订单验证的纯粹丝杠标的：</strong>板块中弹性最大的部分。</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Bento Grid Section -->
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<section id="data-grid" class="mb-16">
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<h2 class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold mb-6 text-fuchsia-glow tracking-wider text-center">多维数据透视</h2>
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 grid-col-span-2 grid-row-span-2">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-cyan-glow">市场空间预测 (Market Forecast)</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-neutral-400 mb-4">行星滚柱丝杠作为人形机器人核心增量部件，市场空间广阔。特斯拉单机用量14个，价值量约2.8万元。随着产业化和降本推进，市场规模有望在2030年突破300亿元。</p>
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<div id="market-chart" class="w-full h-80"></div>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-cyan-glow">核心定位</h3>
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<p class="text-neutral-300">行星滚柱丝杠是人形机器人的“<strong class="text-white">关节</strong>”与“<strong class="text-white">肌腱</strong>”，是价值量最高的核心部件（BOM成本占比~20%），用于实现旋转与直线运动转换。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-cyan-glow">技术优势 (vs. 滚珠丝杠)</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-neutral-300">
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<li><strong class="text-white">承载力:</strong> 提升 3-6 倍</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">使用寿命:</strong> 延长 15 倍</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">体积:</strong> 缩小至 1/3</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 grid-col-span-2">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-fuchsia-glow">技术壁垒 & 降本路径</h3>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-4 text-neutral-300">
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<div>
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<strong class="text-white block mb-1">三大壁垒:</strong>
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<ul class="list-decimal list-inside text-sm space-y-1">
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<li><strong class="text-red-400">工艺挑战:</strong> 内螺纹加工难度极大，良率低(50%)。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-red-400">设备瓶颈:</strong> 核心高精度磨床依赖进口，交期长(1-2年)。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-red-400">材料限制:</strong> 高端合金钢依赖进口。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<strong class="text-white block mb-1">降本路径:</strong>
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<ul class="list-decimal list-inside text-sm space-y-1">
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<li><strong class="text-green-400">工艺优化:</strong> "以车代磨"、"热轧"工艺有望大幅降本。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-green-400">设备国产化:</strong> 预计2025年国产设备密集出货。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-green-400">规模效应:</strong> 自动化产线提升效率和良率(目标90%+)。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-fuchsia-glow">竞争格局</h3>
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<p class="text-neutral-300">全球市场被<strong class="text-white">德国舍弗勒</strong>等少数巨头<strong class="text-red-400">高度垄断(CR4>80%)</strong>。国内尚处蓝海，国产化率不足10%，数十家企业涌入赛道，头部供应商尚未形成。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Stock List Section -->
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<section id="stocks">
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<h2 class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold mb-6 text-cyan-glow tracking-wider text-center">产业链核心公司梳理</h2>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-3xl p-2 md:p-4 glow-border">
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<table class="table table-zebra bg-transparent w-full">
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<thead class="text-base text-white/80">
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<tr>
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<th class="bg-transparent">股票名称</th>
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<th class="bg-transparent">股票代码</th>
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<th class="bg-transparent">核心逻辑与进展</th>
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<th class="bg-transparent">产业链定位</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody class="text-neutral-300">
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<!-- 上游 -->
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<tr class="hover:bg-white/5"><td colspan="4" class="font-bold text-center text-cyan-400 bg-black/20">上游：核心设备 & 工具</td></tr>
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<tr class="hover:bg-white/5">
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<td>华辰装备</td>
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<td>-</td>
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<td>核心磨床设备商，产品对标海外龙头，实现零部件充分国产化，高精度螺纹磨床获行业首单。</td>
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<td>核心设备</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="hover:bg-white/5">
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<td>沃尔德</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688028" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">688028</a></td>
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<td>PCBN刀具龙头，其产品是旋风铣工艺国产化突破的关键，滚珠/滚柱丝杠加工刀具已出货并加大研发。</td>
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<td>核心刀具</td>
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</tr>
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<!-- 中游 -->
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<tr class="hover:bg-white/5"><td colspan="4" class="font-bold text-center text-fuchsia-400 bg-black/20">中游：丝杠成品 & 零部件</td></tr>
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<tr class="hover:bg-white/5">
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<td>北特科技</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603009" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">603009</a></td>
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<td>投资18.5亿元建生产基地，逻辑最纯粹决心最大。已实现全工序自产，产品在客户端表现出色。</td>
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<td>第一梯队</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="hover:bg-white/5">
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<td>贝斯特</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300580" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">300580</a></td>
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<td>已采购进口高精度磨床，工艺积累深厚。行星滚柱丝杠持续推进，为明年批量供货做好技术和设备储备。</td>
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<td>第一梯队</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="hover:bg-white/5">
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<td>双林股份</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300100" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">300100</a></td>
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<td>自研丝杠并收购国内反向式行星滚柱丝杠磨床量产企业无锡科之鑫，形成“设备+制造”协同。已取得3家订单。</td>
|
||
<td>第一梯队</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-white/5">
|
||
<td>五洲新春</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603667" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">603667</a></td>
|
||
<td>轴承技术同源，布局丝杠加速转型。滚珠丝杠和行星滚柱丝杠已取得订单。拟投资15亿建设相关项目。</td>
|
||
<td>第二梯队</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-white/5">
|
||
<td>震裕科技</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>已建立2条产线，日均产能100套。自研+定制设备，采用硬车+磨工艺。已有国内客户百台级订单。</td>
|
||
<td>积极追赶者</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-white/5">
|
||
<td>金沃股份</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>专注零部件，与丝杠公司合作开发螺母、滚柱等，价值量占丝杠成本55-65%。已明确给客户的供货时间表。</td>
|
||
<td>核心零部件</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<!-- 下游 -->
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-white/5"><td colspan="4" class="font-bold text-center text-green-400 bg-black/20">下游：执行器模组</td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-white/5">
|
||
<td>恒立液压</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601100" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">601100</a></td>
|
||
<td>从丝杠延伸至执行器模组，布局最深远。投资15.27亿用于线性驱动器项目，已送样T客户，确定性高。</td>
|
||
<td>平台化龙头</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-white/5">
|
||
<td>江苏雷利</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300660" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">300660</a></td>
|
||
<td>子公司鼎智科技研发生产行星滚柱丝杠等产品，性能对标海外龙头，正在多家客户端送样测试。</td>
|
||
<td>零部件&模组</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
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</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<footer class="text-center mt-16 text-neutral-500 text-sm">
|
||
<p>免责声明：本报告由AI合成，基于公开数据进行分析，不构成任何投资建议。</p>
|
||
<p>投资有风险，入市需谨慎。</p>
|
||
<p>© 2024 北京价值前沿科技有限公司. All rights reserved.</p>
|
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</footer>
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