611 lines
39 KiB
HTML
611 lines
39 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>复合集流体 - 深度行业研究报告</title>
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<!-- Tailwind CSS & DaisyUI -->
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.10.1/dist/full.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
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<!-- Alpine.js -->
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<script defer src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js"></script>
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
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<style>
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@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Noto+Sans+SC:wght@300;400;500;700&display=swap');
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body {
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font-family: 'Noto Sans SC', sans-serif;
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background-color: #0c0a09; /* A very dark, almost black background */
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color: #e2e8f0; /* Light gray text for readability */
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overflow-x: hidden;
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position: fixed;
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backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="min-h-screen">
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<div class="space-bg"></div>
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center py-8 mb-8">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-extrabold tracking-tight text-transparent bg-clip-text bg-gradient-to-r from-sky-300 to-violet-400">
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复合集流体
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</h1>
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<p class="mt-4 text-xl text-slate-400">深度行业研究报告</p>
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<p class="mt-2 text-xs text-slate-500">
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北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现，本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。
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</p>
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</header>
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<!-- Bento Grid Layout -->
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<main class="bento-grid">
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<!-- Core View -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8 col-span-12 md:col-span-7 content-text">
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<h3 class="grid-item-header">核心观点摘要</h3>
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<p>复合集流体正处于从“主题炒作”向“基本面驱动”过渡的关键拐点。其核心驱动力源于<strong class="text-sky-300">成本优势</strong>（高铜价背景下凸显）与<strong class="text-violet-300">性能优势</strong>（高安全、高能量密度）的双重叠加，产业化进程已由订单落地得到初步验证。未来潜力巨大，特别是在固态电池等下一代技术中扮演关键角色，但短期内仍面临良率爬坡、成本控制和供应链协同的挑战。</p>
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</section>
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<!-- Catalysts & Path -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8 col-span-12 md:col-span-5 content-text">
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<h3 class="grid-item-header">关键催化剂与未来路径</h3>
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<h4>近期催化剂 (3-6个月)</h4>
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<ul>
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<li><span class="badge badge-info badge-outline mr-2">订单</span>首个GW级量产订单落地</li>
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<li><span class="badge badge-success badge-outline mr-2">官宣</span>宁德时代/比亚迪等明确装车计划</li>
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<li><span class="badge badge-warning badge-outline mr-2">设备</span>核心设备商(东威/骄成)大额订单爆发</li>
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</ul>
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<h4>长期发展路径</h4>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>导入期 (24H2-25H1):</strong> 3C/无人机率先放量，动力小批量装车。</li>
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<li><strong>成长期 (25H2-26):</strong> 动力规模化装车(SOP)，渗透率快速提升。</li>
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<li><strong>成熟期 (27+):</strong> 成为主流技术，在固态电池中应用成新增长点。</li>
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</ul>
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</section>
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<!-- Industry Timeline -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8 col-span-12">
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<h3 class="grid-item-header">产业化进程时间轴</h3>
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<div id="timeline-chart" style="width: 100%; height: 400px;"></div>
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</section>
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<!-- Logic & Perception -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8 col-span-12 md:col-span-6 content-text">
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<h3 class="grid-item-header">核心逻辑与市场认知</h3>
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<h4>三大核心驱动力</h4>
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<ol class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-2">
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<li><strong class="text-sky-300">成本倒逼下的经济性：</strong>当前最直接驱动力。高铜价下，复合铜箔用铜量减少近70%，成本优势显著扩大。金美给宁德的定价已比传统铜箔低5-7%，是电池厂加速导入的核心原因。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-violet-300">安全与性能的战略卡位：</strong>原生安全优势满足更严苛法规，解决硅碳负极膨胀问题，被视为固态电池“固固界面”难题的关键材料。是电池厂未来3-5年的战略技术储备。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-green-300">技术瓶颈的突破：</strong>焊接工艺（超声波滚焊）和快充性能（多孔铜箔）两大难题取得根本性进展，为规模化应用扫清障碍。</li>
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</ol>
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<h4 class="mt-6">市场热度与情绪</h4>
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<p>市场关注度极高，情绪整体乐观，尤其对2025年量产爆发充满期待。但存在认知滞后，部分投资者因前期进度不及预期而麻木，可能构成认知差。</p>
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</section>
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<!-- Expectation Gaps & Risks -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8 col-span-12 md:col-span-6 content-text" x-data="{ activeTab: 'gaps' }">
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<div class="tabs tabs-boxed bg-black/20 mb-4">
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<a class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': activeTab === 'gaps' }" @click.prevent="activeTab = 'gaps'">预期差分析</a>
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<a class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': activeTab === 'risks' }" @click.prevent="activeTab = 'risks'">潜在风险与挑战</a>
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</div>
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<div x-show="activeTab === 'gaps'">
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<h3 class="grid-item-header !border-none !pb-0">预期差分析</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong class="text-green-400">[正面预期差] 对战略价值的低估:</strong> 市场普遍认知停留在“降本”，但其解决了电池膨胀、界面等核心瓶颈，是固态电池等下一代技术的关键底层材料，平台型技术价值被低估。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-red-400">[负面预期差] 对量产挑战的忽视:</strong> 宏大叙事与实际运营困难存在差距。新闻揭示英联股份PP铜箔良率仅25%，揭示了从“0到1”技术突破与“1到N”规模化量产间的巨大鸿沟。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-yellow-400">[结构性预期差] 铝箔快于铜箔:</strong> 市场热点多集中于复合铜箔，可能忽略了复合铝箔更快的商业化节奏和初期更高的盈利水平。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div x-show="activeTab === 'risks'">
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<h3 class="grid-item-header !border-none !pb-0">潜在风险与挑战</h3>
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<h4>技术风险</h4>
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<p><strong>良率瓶颈:</strong> PP基膜与铜结合力差导致的低良率是核心挑战，大规模量产稳定性存疑。<br><strong>技术路线变化:</strong> “多孔铜箔”、“3D铜箔”等新兴方案可能改变竞争格局。</p>
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<h4>商业化风险</h4>
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<p><strong>成本控制:</strong> 初期低良率和高设备折旧可能导致实际成本高于预期。<br><strong>供应链成熟度:</strong> 上游基膜厂配合意愿不强，可能形成供应瓶颈。</p>
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<h4>信息交叉验证风险</h4>
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<p><strong>最显著矛盾点在于英联股份：</strong>重大订单公告与内部低良率、扩产停滞的现实形成鲜明对比，是重大风险点。</p>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Multi-source Data Hub -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8 col-span-12 content-text" x-data="{ tab: 'news' }">
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<h3 class="grid-item-header">多源情报汇总</h3>
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<div role="tablist" class="tabs tabs-lifted">
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<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'news' }" @click="tab = 'news'">新闻数据</a>
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<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'roadshow' }" @click="tab = 'roadshow'">路演纪要</a>
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<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'research' }" @click="tab = 'research'">研报精粹</a>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-base-100/30 p-4 rounded-b-box rounded-tr-box">
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<div x-show="tab === 'news'">
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<h4>市场趋势与产业化进展</h4>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>规模应用开启：</strong>可川、英联公告订单，覆盖消费与动力场景，标志着产业进入规模应用阶段。</li>
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<li><strong>量产预期：</strong>1H25有望迎来大规模量产，2Q25启动新一轮超100GW资本开支。</li>
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<li><strong>核心驱动：</strong>铜价上涨带来的成本压力、头部客户合作意愿增强、欧洲安全新规。</li>
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<li><strong>应用节奏：</strong>复合铝箔量产速度更快，盈利水平更高；复合铜箔从24年下半年开始起量。</li>
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</ul>
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<h4>企业动态</h4>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>英联股份：</strong>获韩国U&S重大订单(25年300万㎡)，但PP铜箔良率仅25%，新线暂缓。</li>
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<li><strong>宝明科技：</strong>新一代复合铜箔已实现批量供货，获多家客户验证。</li>
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<li><strong>东威科技：</strong>水电镀设备幅宽1.8m、速度15m/s，磁控蒸镀一体机获量产订单。</li>
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<li><strong>骄成超声：</strong>获宁德时代GW级超声波滚焊设备订单。</li>
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</ul>
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<h4>技术挑战</h4>
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<p>生产工艺（收卷、分切）是最大难点；良率有较大提升空间；基膜材料供应配合度不高。</p>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'roadshow'">
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<h4>技术与量产进展</h4>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>量产时间表：</strong>复合铜箔预计2025年下半年进入整车量产(SOP)。</li>
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<li><strong>主流技术：</strong>两步法（磁控溅射+水电镀）成行业通行方案，三明治结构仍是主流。</li>
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<li><strong>成本拐点：</strong>行业已从“产品品质迭代”转向“成本迭代”，头部企业成本已低于传统铜箔。</li>
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</ul>
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<h4>供应链与公司</h4>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>宁德时代供应链：</strong>金美新材料已定点，定价低于传统铜箔5-7%；英联、宝明等在测试阶段。</li>
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<li><strong>设备端受益：</strong>东威科技（水电镀）、汇成真空（磁控）、骄成超声（焊接）将率先受益。</li>
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</ul>
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<h4>前沿应用</h4>
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<p>半固态/全固态电池对复合集流体（尤其铝箔）关注度提升，被认为是解决膨胀和界面问题的“底层技术革命”。</p>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'research'">
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<h4>产业化时间线</h4>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>订单节点：</strong>预计2024年Q3末-Q4初，有望迎来首个GW级别量产订单。</li>
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<li><strong>量产导入：</strong>金美新材料2024年下半年将向客户开启规模化供应装车。</li>
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</ul>
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<h4>市场驱动与成本</h4>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>成本优势：</strong>铜价上涨背景下，复合铜箔成本优势明显扩大。预计2025年将较传统铜箔具备20%价格优势。</li>
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<li><strong>市场空间：</strong>中性预期下，2025年市场空间可达95亿元。</li>
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</ul>
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<h4>产业链与技术</h4>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>技术壁垒：</strong>PP基膜与铜的结合力难题是核心技术壁垒和行业护城河。</li>
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<li><strong>设备路线：</strong>技术路线收敛至二步法，一体化设备供货模式将在2024年推广。</li>
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<li><strong>核心公司：</strong>设备端推荐东威科技、骄成超声；材料端关注宝明科技、英联股份等。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Industry Chain & Key Players -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8 col-span-12">
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<h3 class="grid-item-header">产业链与核心公司剖析</h3>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6 mb-8 text-center">
|
||
<div class="p-4 bg-sky-900/30 rounded-xl">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-sky-300">上游：设备与原材料</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-slate-300">设备: 东威科技, 骄成超声<br>基膜: 双星新材, 东材科技<br>靶材: 阿石创</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="p-4 bg-violet-900/30 rounded-xl">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-violet-300">中游：集流体制造</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-slate-300">新势力: 宝明科技, 英联股份<br>转型者: 诺德股份, 嘉元科技<br>未上市: 金美新材料, 纳力</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="p-4 bg-green-900/30 rounded-xl">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-green-300">下游：应用</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-slate-300">动力电池: 宁德时代, 比亚迪<br>消费电子: ATL<br>储能</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="custom-table">
|
||
<thead class="text-xs text-gray-700 uppercase">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>公司</th>
|
||
<th>所在环节</th>
|
||
<th>竞争优势</th>
|
||
<th>最新进展与数据</th>
|
||
<th>潜在风险</th>
|
||
<th>逻辑纯粹度</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-primary">东威科技</div></td>
|
||
<td>上游-设备</td>
|
||
<td>水电镀设备龙头，技术先发优势强</td>
|
||
<td>设备幅宽1.8m，速度15m/s，铝箔一体机获订单</td>
|
||
<td>客户资本开支不及预期</td>
|
||
<td><progress class="progress progress-primary w-24" value="90" max="100"></progress> 高</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-secondary">骄成超声</div></td>
|
||
<td>上游-设备</td>
|
||
<td>超声波滚焊“唯一可行方案”，绑定宁德</td>
|
||
<td>已获宁德1GW订单，预期24年获10GW+</td>
|
||
<td>客户依赖度高</td>
|
||
<td><progress class="progress progress-secondary w-24" value="90" max="100"></progress> 高</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-accent">宝明科技</div></td>
|
||
<td>中游-制造</td>
|
||
<td>进度领先，率先宣布批量供货</td>
|
||
<td>已实现批量供货，通过多家客户验证</td>
|
||
<td>订单规模和盈利能力待验证</td>
|
||
<td><progress class="progress progress-accent w-24" value="80" max="100"></progress> 较高</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><div class="badge">英联股份</div></td>
|
||
<td>中游-制造</td>
|
||
<td>获海外大额订单，双箔布局</td>
|
||
<td>与韩国U&S签订300万㎡/年协议</td>
|
||
<td><strong class="text-red-400">PP铜箔良率仅25%，扩产暂缓</strong></td>
|
||
<td><progress class="progress w-24" value="50" max="100"></progress> 中等</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><div class="badge">诺德股份</div></td>
|
||
<td>中游-制造</td>
|
||
<td>传统铜箔龙头，客户资源雄厚</td>
|
||
<td>复合铝箔小批量生产，送样宁德/比亚迪</td>
|
||
<td>转型速度与新进入者的竞争</td>
|
||
<td><progress class="progress w-24" value="60" max="100"></progress> 中等</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Rise Analysis -->
|
||
<section class="col-span-12">
|
||
<h3 class="grid-item-header">涨停异动分析</h3>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-6 flex flex-col justify-between">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<div class="flex justify-between items-center mb-2">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-lg text-white">洪田股份 (603800)</span>
|
||
<span class="badge badge-error text-lg">+10.02%</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400 mb-4">2025-07-03</p>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-300 text-sm"><strong>核心结论:</strong> 固态电池大会催化叠加硫化物集流体设备与复合铜箔订单落地预期，作为锂电铜箔设备龙头获资金集中攻击而涨停。</p>
|
||
<div class="mt-4 space-x-2">
|
||
<div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">固态电池</div>
|
||
<div class="badge badge-success badge-outline">锂电铜箔</div>
|
||
<div class="badge badge-warning badge-outline">复合集流体</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-6 flex flex-col justify-between">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<div class="flex justify-between items-center mb-2">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-lg text-white">江南新材 (603124)</span>
|
||
<span class="badge badge-error text-lg">+10.0%</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400 mb-4">2025-08-04</p>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-300 text-sm"><strong>核心结论:</strong> PET铜箔产业化出现“成本拐点+龙头订单”双重催化，因具备6μm超薄铜箔量产能力且已送样，被视为核心受益标的而涨停。</p>
|
||
<div class="mt-4 space-x-2">
|
||
<div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">PET铜箔</div>
|
||
<div class="badge badge-success badge-outline">负极集流体</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-6 flex flex-col justify-between">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<div class="flex justify-between items-center mb-2">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-lg text-white">欧克科技 (001223)</span>
|
||
<span class="badge badge-error text-lg">+10.0%</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400 mb-4">2025-09-05</p>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-300 text-sm"><strong>核心结论:</strong> 8.6亿元4680大圆柱复合集流体涂布模头大额订单公告，叠加欧盟新电池法规生效催化，机构席位抢筹，供需缺口与政策红利共振。</p>
|
||
<div class="mt-4 space-x-2">
|
||
<div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">4680电池</div>
|
||
<div class="badge badge-success badge-outline">欧盟新规</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-6 flex flex-col justify-between">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<div class="flex justify-between items-center mb-2">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-lg text-white">劲嘉股份 (002191)</span>
|
||
<span class="badge badge-error text-lg">+10.07%</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400 mb-4">2025-08-25</p>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-300 text-sm"><strong>核心结论:</strong> “HNB试点扩大”与“复合铜箔首批量产送样通过”双重催化，叠加电子烟牌照稀缺价值与集流体订单预期升温。</p>
|
||
<div class="mt-4 space-x-2">
|
||
<div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">HNB</div>
|
||
<div class="badge badge-success badge-outline">储能</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Table -->
|
||
<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8 col-span-12">
|
||
<h3 class="grid-item-header">相关概念股梳理</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="custom-table" id="stock-table">
|
||
<!-- Table content will be injected by JavaScript -->
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
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|
||
const stockList = stockDataRaw[Object.keys(stockDataRaw)[0]];
|
||
|
||
// Process and group stock data
|
||
const groupedStocks = stockList.reduce((acc, stock) => {
|
||
const key = stock.stock_code || stock.stock;
|
||
if (!acc[key]) {
|
||
acc[key] = {
|
||
name: stock.stock,
|
||
code: stock.stock_code,
|
||
tags: new Set()
|
||
};
|
||
}
|
||
acc[key].tags.add(stock.reason);
|
||
if(stock['其他标签']) {
|
||
stock['其他标签'].split(',').forEach(tag => acc[key].tags.add(tag.trim()));
|
||
}
|
||
return acc;
|
||
}, {});
|
||
|
||
const categories = {
|
||
'设备厂商': ['磁控溅射', '水电镀设备', '蒸镀设备', '化学镀设备', '超声滚焊'],
|
||
'材料': ['PET基膜', 'PP基膜', 'PI膜', '电镀添加剂 + 靶材', '基膜下游延伸', '靶材'],
|
||
'复合铜箔制造': ['复合铜箔', 'PET', 'PP', 'PI', '传统铜箔企业', '同源技术切入', '其他业务转型', '锂电铜箔'],
|
||
'复合铝箔制造': ['复合铝箔']
|
||
};
|
||
|
||
const getCategory = (tags) => {
|
||
for (const category in categories) {
|
||
if (categories[category].some(tag => tags.has(tag))) {
|
||
return category;
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
return '其他';
|
||
};
|
||
|
||
const finalStockData = Object.values(groupedStocks).map(stock => ({
|
||
...stock,
|
||
category: getCategory(stock.tags)
|
||
}));
|
||
|
||
const categorizedData = finalStockData.reduce((acc, stock) => {
|
||
if (!acc[stock.category]) {
|
||
acc[stock.category] = [];
|
||
}
|
||
acc[stock.category].push(stock);
|
||
return acc;
|
||
}, {});
|
||
|
||
const tableContainer = document.getElementById('stock-table');
|
||
let tableHtml = `
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>公司名称</th>
|
||
<th>产业链环节</th>
|
||
<th>相关概念标签</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
`;
|
||
|
||
const categoryOrder = ['设备厂商', '材料', '复合铜箔制造', '复合铝箔制造', '其他'];
|
||
|
||
categoryOrder.forEach(category => {
|
||
if (categorizedData[category]) {
|
||
tableHtml += `<tr><td colspan="3" class="font-bold bg-base-300/50 text-center text-lg">${category}</td></tr>`;
|
||
categorizedData[category].forEach(stock => {
|
||
const stockName = stock.code
|
||
? `<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=${stock.code}" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">${stock.name} (${stock.code})</a>`
|
||
: `${stock.name}`;
|
||
const tagsHtml = Array.from(stock.tags).map(tag => `<span class="badge badge-outline m-1">${tag}</span>`).join(' ');
|
||
|
||
tableHtml += `
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="font-semibold">${stockName}</td>
|
||
<td>${stock.category}</td>
|
||
<td>${tagsHtml}</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
`;
|
||
});
|
||
}
|
||
});
|
||
|
||
tableHtml += `</tbody>`;
|
||
tableContainer.innerHTML = tableHtml;
|
||
|
||
window.addEventListener('resize', function() {
|
||
timelineChart.resize();
|
||
});
|
||
});
|
||
</script>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html> |