483 lines
30 KiB
HTML
483 lines
30 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<title>机器人零部件加工设备 - 深度投研报告</title>
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<!-- Tailwind & DaisyUI -->
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.10.1/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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:root {
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--glow-color-1: rgba(0, 255, 255, 0.5);
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<body class="min-h-screen p-4 sm:p-6 md:p-8">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold glow-text bg-clip-text text-transparent bg-gradient-to-r from-cyan-400 to-fuchsia-500">
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机器人零部件加工设备
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</h1>
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<p class="text-xl text-slate-300 mt-4">深度投研报告</p>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-500 mt-2">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现，本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。</p>
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</header>
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<!-- Bento Grid Layout -->
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<main class="bento-grid">
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<!-- Cell 1: Core Concept -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 col-span-12 md:col-span-8 row-span-2">
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<h2 class="card-header">核心洞察：从“预期”到“验证”的产业升级</h2>
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<div class="content-prose space-y-4">
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<h3>概念事件：产业链溯源的必然结果</h3>
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<p>“机器人零部件加工设备”概念的崛起，是人形机器人从“概念演示”走向“量产预期”的必然逻辑延伸。随着特斯拉等头部厂商给出<strong>2025-2027年</strong>的量产时间表，市场意识到，实现百万台级别量产必须先行解决上游零部件的规模化生产，即“卖铲人”逻辑。<strong>华辰装备获得福利旺100台丝杠设备订单</strong>成为标志性事件，标志着概念从“预期”迈向“订单验证”阶段。国务院推动的“<strong>大规模设备更新</strong>”行动则为设备采购提供了顶层政策支持。</p>
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<h3>核心观点摘要</h3>
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<p>本概念正处在从<strong>主题炒作向早期基本面验证过渡的关键阶段</strong>。其核心驱动力源于人形机器人量产预期带来的<strong>确定性资本开支</strong>与<strong>紧迫的国产替代需求</strong>。未来潜力巨大，但短期内，真正的价值集中在能够攻克<strong>核心技术瓶颈（如高精度内螺纹磨床）</strong>并率先获得下游头部客户订单验证的少数企业。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Cell 2: Market Projection Chart -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 col-span-12 md:col-span-4 row-span-2">
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<h2 class="card-header">上游资本开支预期</h2>
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<div id="market-chart" class="w-full h-full min-h-[300px]"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Cell 3: Core Logic & Market Perception -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 col-span-12 lg:col-span-6 row-span-3">
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<h2 class="card-header">核心驱动力与市场预期差</h2>
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<div class="content-prose space-y-4 max-h-[800px] overflow-y-auto pr-2">
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<h3>四大核心驱动力</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-2">
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<li><strong>需求拉动 (确定性):</strong> 人形机器人商业化进程明确，设备采购需在<strong>2025-2026年启动</strong>，为设备厂商带来2-3年业绩确定性窗口。</li>
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<li><strong>供给瓶颈 (稀缺性):</strong> 核心设备如<strong>内螺纹磨床</strong>技术壁垒高，全球产能不足，高端市场被海外垄断。率先突破的国内企业具备极高议价能力。</li>
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<li><strong>国产替代 (必然性):</strong> 地缘政治与高昂的进口成本及长周期（长达16个月），使得<strong>90%设备需求将依赖国产</strong>，为国内厂商打开巨大空间。</li>
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<li><strong>工艺迭代 (增量):</strong> 为降本增效，丝杠加工正从纯磨削向“<strong>以车代磨</strong>”、“<strong>旋风铣</strong>”等复合路径演进，为高端车床、旋风铣床及<strong>PCBN刀具</strong>带来全新增量市场。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3>市场预期差分析</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-2">
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<li><strong>宏大叙事 vs. 订单落地:</strong> 市场沉浸于“年增千亿设备开支”的叙事，但目前标志性大单稀缺（仅华辰装备），订单可能向少数头部企业集中。</li>
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<li><strong>通用设备 vs. 核心瓶颈设备:</strong> 市场可能混淆了通用机床与技术壁垒极高的<strong>内螺纹磨床</strong>。真正的价值在于后者，而非简单的“蹭概念”。</li>
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<li><strong>设备本身 vs. 工艺know-how:</strong> 市场关注硬件，但忽略了如热处理环节的“<strong>形变补偿</strong>”等隐形壁垒。提供工艺解决方案的能力是核心竞争力。</li>
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<li><strong>一次性投入 vs. 持续性耗材:</strong> 市场焦点在机床，但对刀具（PCBN）、砂轮等持续性耗材关注不足。旋风铣场景的<strong>PCBN刀具年需求可达8-10亿元</strong>，价值可能被低估。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Cell 4: Supporting Data (Tabbed) -->
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<div x-data="{ tab: 'news' }" class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 col-span-12 lg:col-span-6 row-span-3">
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<div class="flex border-b border-white/10 mb-4">
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<button @click="tab = 'news'" :class="{ 'tab-button-active': tab === 'news' }" class="tab-button py-2 px-4 rounded-t-lg">新闻摘要</button>
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<button @click="tab = 'roadshow'" :class="{ 'tab-button-active': tab === 'roadshow' }" class="tab-button py-2 px-4 rounded-t-lg">路演精粹</button>
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<button @click="tab = 'report'" :class="{ 'tab-button-active': tab === 'report' }" class="tab-button py-2 px-4 rounded-t-lg">研报观点</button>
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</div>
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<div class="content-prose max-h-[750px] overflow-y-auto pr-2">
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<!-- News Tab -->
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<div x-show="tab === 'news'" x-transition>
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<h3>行业趋势</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>“铲子”先行:</strong> 人形机器人量产需上游零部件加工设备先行，机床刀具公司优先受益。</li>
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<li><strong>资本开支预期:</strong> 2027年100万台机器人对应上游资本开支<strong>1500亿</strong>；未来三年每年增加<strong>500-1000亿</strong>设备开支。</li>
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<li><strong>国产化大势:</strong> 因海外设备供给瓶颈、价格高昂且采购受阻，执行器/丝杠/减速器等设备<strong>90%将依赖国产</strong>。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3>关键零部件加工：丝杠</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>核心瓶颈:</strong> 丝杠加工设备是机器人零部件瓶颈点，特别是反向式行星滚柱丝杠的<strong>内螺纹加工</strong>。</li>
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<li><strong>工艺迭代:</strong> 探索磨/车/铣/轧组合方案，如“<strong>以车代磨</strong>”、“<strong>旋风铣</strong>”成为降本增效关键。</li>
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<li><strong>核心设备:</strong> <strong>磨床</strong>是丝杠扩产的核心设备，占设备投资额<strong>46%</strong>。新增市场规模预计<strong>87亿元</strong>（百万台量产）。</li>
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<li><strong>隐形壁垒:</strong> <strong>热处理</strong>环节对淬火形变的加工补偿是关键技术挑战。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<!-- Roadshow Tab -->
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<div x-show="tab === 'roadshow'" x-transition style="display: none;">
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<h3>丝杠加工工艺对比</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>磨削:</strong> 精度最高(C0-C5)，但效率最低、成本最高。<strong>C5以上精度必须依赖磨床</strong>。</li>
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<li><strong>车削(“以车代磨”):</strong> 成本优势明显(设备投资仅为磨床的1/10)，效率中等，精度C7-C9。</li>
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<li><strong>旋风铣:</strong> 兼顾效率(磨削的6-7倍)与精度(C4-C5)，但设备昂贵，需<strong>PCBN刀具</strong>。</li>
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<li><strong>轧制:</strong> 效率最高、成本最低，但精度仅C7-C10，无法满足机器人要求。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3>市场与竞争</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>采购时点:</strong> <strong>2025-2026年启动设备采购</strong>以支撑2027年百万台目标。</li>
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<li><strong>市场空间:</strong> 年产100万台机器人，对应设备市场约<strong>100亿元</strong>(磨床60-70亿，车床30-40亿)。远期磨床市场<strong>300亿</strong>。</li>
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<li><strong>产能瓶颈:</strong> <strong>内螺纹磨床</strong>是关键瓶颈，全球年产能不足500台。</li>
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<li><strong>国产突破:</strong> <strong>华辰装备</strong>获福利旺<strong>100台丝杠设备订单</strong>，标志国产高端磨床量产落地。<strong>秦川机床</strong>国内螺纹磨床市占率超70%。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<!-- Research Report Tab -->
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<div x-show="tab === 'report'" x-transition style="display: none;">
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<h3>关键零部件加工工艺与刀具</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>减速器加工:</strong> 内齿圈加工采用<strong>拉削</strong>（效率最高）或插齿工艺；谐波柔轮需插齿、滚齿工艺。</li>
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<li><strong>丝杠加工:</strong> 外螺纹主流为<strong>旋风铣</strong>（效率是磨削的3-5倍）和磨削；内螺纹采用螺纹铣削。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3>设备投资与开发</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>采购来源:</strong> 早期设备主要来自<strong>日本和德国</strong>。</li>
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<li><strong>自主开发:</strong> <strong>嵘泰股份</strong>等企业开始自主开发用于制造丝杠的专用设备，以把握产能瓶颈。</li>
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<li><strong>政策驱动:</strong> 国务院“<strong>大规模设备更新</strong>”行动方案明确聚焦<strong>人形机器人</strong>，直接鼓励设备投资。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3>技术通用性</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>汽车与机器人:</strong> <strong>汽车减速器和机器人减速器</strong>在精密机械加工技术、工艺和设备方面具有<strong>转化通用的基础</strong>。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Cell 5: Catalysts & Risks -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 col-span-12 md:col-span-6 row-span-2">
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<h2 class="card-header">催化剂与潜在风险</h2>
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<div class="content-prose space-y-4">
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<h3>近期关键催化剂 (未来3-6个月)</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>更多标志性订单出现:</strong> 继华辰装备后，市场期待秦川、日发等获得大额可验证订单。</li>
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<li><strong>下游客户供应商名单确认:</strong> 特斯拉、宇树科技等头部厂商公布设备采购计划。</li>
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<li><strong>国产设备性能验证突破:</strong> 国内厂商宣布其内螺纹磨床加工精度达到P0级并获批量验证。</li>
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<li><strong>国家级政策细则落地:</strong> 针对人形机器人制造设备的具体补贴或税收优惠政策出台。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Cell 6: Player Analysis -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 col-span-12 md:col-span-6 row-span-2">
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<h2 class="card-header">核心玩家梯队分析</h2>
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<div class="content-prose space-y-4">
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<ul>
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<li><strong>领导者 (逻辑最纯粹):</strong>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>华辰装备:</strong> 逻辑最硬，率先拿下行业首个标志性大单，验证度最高。</li>
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<li><strong>秦川机床:</strong> 老牌龙头，布局最全，国内螺纹磨床市占率超70%，技术底蕴深厚。</li>
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</ul>
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</li>
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<li><strong>追赶者 & 特色玩家:</strong>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>浙海德曼:</strong> 卡位“以车代磨”新工艺增量，高端车床龙头。</li>
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<li><strong>日发精机:</strong> 轴承磨床绝对龙头跨界，技术同源性强，潜力巨大。</li>
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<li><strong>金财互联:</strong> 卡位热处理“隐形壁垒”，逻辑独特且稀缺。</li>
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</ul>
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</li>
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<li><strong>耗材核心标的:</strong>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>沃尔德:</strong> 超硬刀具龙头，率先突破旋风铣刀片技术，持续受益。</li>
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||
</ul>
|
||
</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Table Section -->
|
||
<section class="mt-12">
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
|
||
<h2 class="card-header mb-6">核心标的梳理</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-white/20">
|
||
<th class="p-4 bg-transparent text-white/80">股票名称</th>
|
||
<th class="p-4 bg-transparent text-white/80">股票代码</th>
|
||
<th class="p-4 bg-transparent text-white/80 w-2/5">核心逻辑</th>
|
||
<th class="p-4 bg-transparent text-white/80">核心标签</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<!-- Data from stocks.js -->
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-white/10 hover:bg-white/5 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="p-4 font-semibold">秦川机床</td>
|
||
<td class="p-4"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000837" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:text-cyan-300">000837</a></td>
|
||
<td class="p-4 text-sm text-slate-300">公司螺纹磨床产品市场占有率位列国内第一；公司已研发面向人形机器人领域的数控丝杠磨床和螺纹磨床，内螺纹磨床加工丝杠精度达P0级</td>
|
||
<td class="p-4"><span class="badge badge-info badge-outline">磨床</span> <span class="badge badge-ghost">互动/调研</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-white/10 hover:bg-white/5 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="p-4 font-semibold">日发精机</td>
|
||
<td class="p-4"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002520" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:text-cyan-300">002520</a></td>
|
||
<td class="p-4 text-sm text-slate-300">公司数控螺纹磨床可用于加工人形机器人的丝杆与螺母；目前，用于丝杆、螺母的内、外螺纹磨床及磨削中心已向部分客户交付使用</td>
|
||
<td class="p-4"><span class="badge badge-info badge-outline">磨床</span> <span class="badge badge-ghost">互动</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-white/10 hover:bg-white/5 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="p-4 font-semibold">华辰装备</td>
|
||
<td class="p-4"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300809" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:text-cyan-300">300809</a></td>
|
||
<td class="p-4 text-sm text-slate-300">国内轧辊磨床龙头；公司精密内外螺纹磨床可应用于人形机器人中行星滚柱丝杠成套零部件的精密磨削加工</td>
|
||
<td class="p-4"><span class="badge badge-info badge-outline">磨床</span> <span class="badge badge-ghost">研报/调研</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-white/10 hover:bg-white/5 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="p-4 font-semibold">浙海德曼</td>
|
||
<td class="p-4"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688577" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:text-cyan-300">688577</a></td>
|
||
<td class="p-4 text-sm text-slate-300">国内高端车床龙头企业，型谱全面；公司数控车床产品在机器人领域得到广泛应用，主要客户包括绿的谐波、中大力德、双环传动、五洲新春、夏厦精密等</td>
|
||
<td class="p-4"><span class="badge badge-info badge-outline">车床</span> <span class="badge badge-ghost">互动</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-white/10 hover:bg-white/5 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="p-4 font-semibold">科德数控</td>
|
||
<td class="p-4"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688305" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:text-cyan-300">688305</a></td>
|
||
<td class="p-4 text-sm text-slate-300">公司的五轴机床可以用于人形机器人和工业机器人关节、外壳、手臂、手指及齿轮等零部件加工。公司的新型直线电机可服务于加工人形机器人螺纹类零件的螺纹磨机床</td>
|
||
<td class="p-4"><span class="badge badge-info badge-outline">五轴机床</span> <span class="badge badge-ghost">公告</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-white/10 hover:bg-white/5 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="p-4 font-semibold">沃尔德</td>
|
||
<td class="p-4"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688028" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:text-cyan-300">688028</a></td>
|
||
<td class="p-4 text-sm text-slate-300">公司在人形机器人领域主要为减速器和行星滚柱丝杠加工提供超硬切削刀具解决方案</td>
|
||
<td class="p-4"><span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">刀具</span> <span class="badge badge-ghost">互动</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
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<tr class="border-b border-white/10 hover:bg-white/5 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="p-4 font-semibold">恒锋工具</td>
|
||
<td class="p-4"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300488" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:text-cyan-300">300488</a></td>
|
||
<td class="p-4 text-sm text-slate-300">公司根据相关客户需求，在人形机器人行星滚柱丝杠、精密减速器加工领域开发齿轮刀具、精密螺纹工具、精密量检具等产品，形成少量订货</td>
|
||
<td class="p-4"><span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">刀具</span> <span class="badge badge-ghost">年报</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-white/10 hover:bg-white/5 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="p-4 font-semibold">欧科亿</td>
|
||
<td class="p-4"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688308" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:text-cyan-300">688308</a></td>
|
||
<td class="p-4 text-sm text-slate-300">公司用于人形机器人传动系统核心部件加工的旋风铣刀具、齿轮的滚齿刀具已通过部分下游客户验证并进入小批量供货阶段</td>
|
||
<td class="p-4"><span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">刀具</span> <span class="badge badge-ghost">互动</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-white/10 hover:bg-white/5 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="p-4 font-semibold">恒进感应</td>
|
||
<td class="p-4"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=920870" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:text-cyan-300">920870</a></td>
|
||
<td class="p-4 text-sm text-slate-300">在研项目包括一种滚珠丝杠感应淬火机床自主研究，该类机床广泛应用于丝杠类零件的大批量自动化感应淬火加热，市场前景广阔</td>
|
||
<td class="p-4"><span class="badge badge-warning badge-outline">热处理</span> <span class="badge badge-ghost">北交所/年报</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
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<!-- Footer -->
|
||
<footer class="text-center mt-12 py-4">
|
||
<p class="text-xs text-slate-500">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” | AI合成数据，投资需谨慎 | © 2024</p>
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