593 lines
37 KiB
HTML
593 lines
37 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>聚酯产业 - 深度研究报告</title>
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</head>
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<body class="min-h-screen">
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<div id="space-bg">
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<div class="stars"></div>
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<div class="glow-sphere sphere1"></div>
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<div class="glow-sphere sphere2"></div>
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<div class="glow-sphere sphere3"></div>
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</div>
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8" x-data="{}" x-init="
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">
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<header class="text-center py-8 anim-on-scroll opacity-0">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold tracking-widest uppercase">
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聚酯产业
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</h1>
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<p class="text-lg text-cyan-300 mt-2 tracking-wider">Polyester Industry</p>
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<div class="mt-4 text-xs text-gray-500 max-w-2xl mx-auto">
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<p>北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 呈现</p>
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<p>本报告为AI合成数据，据此投资，风险自担。</p>
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</div>
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</header>
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<main class="space-y-8 md:space-y-12">
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<!-- Insight Section -->
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<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-10 anim-on-scroll opacity-0" style="animation-delay: 100ms;">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-6 border-b-2 border-cyan-400/30 pb-3">概念核心洞察 (Concept Insight)</h2>
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<div class="space-y-8">
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">0. 概念事件：周期演变的核心脉络</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300">聚酯产业在近年经历了一个完整的“产能扩张 → 供给过剩 → 行业亏损 → 联合减产”的周期性演变。其核心事件在于，以2025年下半年为转折点，在工信部政策定调和龙头企业生存危机驱动下，行业从无序竞争转向了以“反内卷”为目标的协同供给侧改革。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">1. 核心观点摘要</h3>
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<p class="font-medium text-cyan-200 text-lg">聚酯产业正处在由供给过剩驱动的恶性竞争，转向寡头协同驱动的供给侧改革的关键拐点。核心驱动力已从需求增长转变为行业龙头为自救而达成的“反内卷”共识，未来潜力在于供给端有序收缩带来的全产业链利润修复，行业正从周期底部迈入景气回升通道。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">2. 核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-4 custom-list text-gray-300">
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<li><strong class="text-white">生存危机倒逼的寡头协同：</strong> 长期全行业亏损（PTA加工费跌破现金成本）是推动协同减产的最强动力。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">高行业集中度提供执行基础：</strong> PTA行业CR6集中度达74-75%，涤纶长丝CR6近80%，为寡头协同提供了可能。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">产能扩张周期结束提供“休战”窗口：</strong> 2025年底PTA新增产能周期基本结束，2026年或无新增产能，为减产保价提供了稳定环境。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">市场情绪与预期差：</strong> 市场情绪已由悲观转为显著乐观。但潜在预期差在于对减产协议“执行力与持续性”的过度乐观，以及可能高估了“需求端的配合度”。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">3. 关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h3>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-lg text-indigo-300 mb-2">近期催化剂 (3-6个月)</h4>
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<ul class="space-y-2 custom-list text-sm">
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<li>行业开工率数据持续下降，验证减产执行力。</li>
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<li>PTA加工费、涤纶长丝吨利润等财务指标修复。</li>
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<li>印度BIS认证取消后，对印出口数据显著增长。</li>
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<li>龙头公司2026年一季报验证盈利改善。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-lg text-indigo-300 mb-2">长期发展路径</h4>
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<ol class="space-y-2 list-decimal list-inside text-sm">
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<li><strong class="text-white">阶段一 (当前 - 2026 H1):</strong> 供给收缩与利润修复。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">阶段二 (2026 H2 - 2027):</strong> 格局优化与产能出清。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">阶段三 (2028+):</strong> 高质量发展与价值延伸（如可降解材料、化学回收）。</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">4. 产业链与核心公司剖析</h3>
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<p class="mb-4 text-gray-300">产业链呈现高度一体化趋势，从上游PX到中游PTA再到下游聚酯产品，龙头企业优势明显。</p>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="table table-sm">
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<thead>
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<tr>
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<th>玩家类型</th>
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<th>代表公司</th>
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<th>竞争优势 & 逻辑</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td class="font-bold text-cyan-400">领导者 (一体化巨头)</td>
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<td>恒力石化, 荣盛石化</td>
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<td>“原油-PX-PTA-聚酯”全产业链布局，抗风险能力最强，经营稳健。</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="font-bold text-purple-400">追赶者 (专注型龙头)</td>
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<td>桐昆股份, 新凤鸣</td>
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<td>涤纶长丝领域绝对龙头，业绩对“PTA-长丝”价差弹性最大，是本轮逻辑中最纯粹的标的。</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="font-bold text-lime-400">细分市场专家</td>
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<td>万凯新材</td>
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<td>专注于聚酯瓶片，全球领先。通过海外布局规避贸易壁垒，直接受益于瓶片环节减产。</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">5. 潜在风险与挑战</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-2 custom-list text-red-300">
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<li><strong class="text-red-200">减产同盟的脆弱性 (核心风险):</strong> 利润修复后，个别企业可能为抢占份额而打破协议。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-red-200">终端需求不及预期:</strong> 全球经济疲软及贸易摩擦可能对冲供给收缩的利好。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-red-200">成本风险:</strong> 原油价格大幅波动将冲击产业链成本和库存价值。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-red-200">信息交叉验证风险:</strong> 机构对终端需求展望存在巨大分歧，是投资决策中需重点审视的风险点。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">6. 综合结论与投资启示</h3>
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<p class="mb-2">聚酯产业已从价值毁灭阶段进入由基本面驱动的行业修复阶段。本轮上涨的核心是供给侧收缩，而非需求强劲复苏，决定了其修复的“高度”可能有限，但“确定性”相对较高。</p>
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<p class="font-semibold text-cyan-200">最具投资价值的环节是中游PTA和下游涤纶长丝。建议关注两类公司：一是桐昆股份、新凤鸣这类弹性最大的专注型龙头；二是恒力石化、荣盛石化这类经营更稳健的一体化巨头。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Data Bento Grid Section -->
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<section class="anim-on-scroll opacity-0" style="animation-delay: 200ms;">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-6 text-center">多维数据透视 (Multi-dimensional Data)</h2>
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-1 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 flex flex-col">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">核心动态：“反内卷”与联合减产</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-4">工信部座谈会为行业“反内卷”奠定基础，产业链各环节通过主动减产应对市场压力，改善盈利状况。</p>
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<div class="space-y-4 text-sm flex-grow">
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<div>
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<p class="font-semibold text-cyan-300">涤纶长丝减产:</p>
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<p class="text-gray-300">自5月起，主流大厂多轮协同减产，累计幅度显著。例如，9月三大厂再次协同减产8%-10%，持续执行“限产保价”策略。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<p class="font-semibold text-cyan-300">PTA减产:</p>
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<p class="text-gray-300">龙头五家企业（恒力、新凤鸣等）通过老装置检修/退出、新装置延期实现利润回升，预计存在超1000万吨产能的减产空间。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<p class="font-semibold text-cyan-300">聚酯瓶片减产:</p>
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<p class="text-gray-300">头部企业7月开始联合减产，开工率降至70%，利润已修复。行业四家头部企业承诺未来3年不新增产能。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-2 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 flex flex-col">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">关键指标概览</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-2">截至研报数据，产业链利润分化，库存压力仍存。</p>
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<div id="keyMetricsChart" class="w-full h-80 flex-grow"></div>
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</div>
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-3 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">产能格局展望</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">新增产能周期结束，高集中度为协同减产提供基础。</p>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm custom-list mt-4">
|
||
<li><strong class="text-white">PTA:</strong> 新增产能周期于2025年底结束，2026年或无新增。CR6集中度达74%。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-white">涤纶长丝:</strong> 未来新增产能维持2-3%低增速，低于需求增速。CR6近80%。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-white">老旧产能:</strong> 涤纶长丝有12.4%的产能投产已超20年，存在出清空间。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bento-item bento-item-4 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">国际贸易与政策</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">外部环境复杂，但亦有机遇出现。</p>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm custom-list mt-4">
|
||
<li><strong class="text-white">印度撤销BIS认证:</strong> 2025年11月，印度撤销对部分聚酯产品的BIS认证，直接拉动对印出口。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-white">反倾销调查:</strong> 美国、印度、土耳其等对中国聚酯产品发起双反调查，是持续存在的外部威胁。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-white">期货市场:</strong> 郑商所积极推进聚酯板块品种对外开放，提升产业链风险管理工具。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bento-item bento-item-5 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">市场观点碰撞</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">机构对终端需求判断存在巨大分歧，是核心风险点。</p>
|
||
<div class="mt-4 space-y-3 text-sm">
|
||
<div class="p-3 rounded-xl bg-green-500/10 border border-green-500/30">
|
||
<p class="font-semibold text-green-300">乐观观点 (2025.11.09路演):</p>
|
||
<p>"金九银十需求后移＋冷冬＋十五规划，四季度至2026年景气向上。"</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="p-3 rounded-xl bg-red-500/10 border border-red-500/30">
|
||
<p class="font-semibold text-red-300">悲观观点 (2025.11.11路演):</p>
|
||
<p>"成本端原油弱势、终端出口疲软，库存压力仍大...聚酯终端需求继续下滑风险。"</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bento-item bento-item-6 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">市场反应案例：新乡化纤涨幅分析</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-4">2025年9月26日，新乡化纤上涨6.73%，其背后逻辑与聚酯产业“反内卷”高度相关。</p>
|
||
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-4 text-xs">
|
||
<div class="bg-gray-800/50 p-3 rounded-lg">
|
||
<p class="font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-1">行业因素</p>
|
||
<p>聚酯产业链集体上涨，市场交易“反内卷”成效。主流涤纶长丝大厂协同减产，执行“限产保价”，推动产业生态健康化。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-gray-800/50 p-3 rounded-lg">
|
||
<p class="font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-1">原材料带动</p>
|
||
<p>原油价格高位，PTA价格受成本支撑上涨，带动化纤产品价格上涨预期。涤纶长丝产销数据火爆（日均超600%）。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-gray-800/50 p-3 rounded-lg">
|
||
<p class="font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-1">资金与情绪</p>
|
||
<p>板块轮动效应明显，资金从高位科技股流向相对低位的化纤等周期行业。市场对行业悲观预期得到修复。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Tables Section -->
|
||
<section class="anim-on-scroll opacity-0" style="animation-delay: 300ms;">
|
||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-6 text-center">产业链核心标的 (Core Stocks)</h2>
|
||
<div class="space-y-8">
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold mb-4 text-fuchsia-400">上游: 对二甲苯(PX)</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑/产能</th>
|
||
<th>其他标签</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>荣盛石化</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002493" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002493</a></td><td>现有产能1040万吨/年 (公司持股51%的浙石化是全球单体规模最大的PX生产基地)</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">产业链位置: 上游</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>恒力石化</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600346" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600346</a></td><td>现有产能520万吨/年</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">产业链位置: 上游</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>东方盛虹</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000301" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000301</a></td><td>现有产能280万吨/年</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">产业链位置: 上游</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>恒逸石化</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000703" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000703</a></td><td>现有产能（PX、苯等化工品）参控股产能 265万吨/年</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">产业链位置: 上游</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>桐昆股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601233" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">601233</a></td><td>浙石化（公司持股20%）是全球单体规模最大的PX生产基地</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">产业链位置: 上游</div></td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold mb-4 text-sky-400">中游: 精对苯二甲酸(PTA)</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑/产能</th>
|
||
<th>其他标签</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>恒力石化</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600346" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600346</a></td><td>现有产能1660万吨/年</td><td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">产业链位置: 中游</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>恒逸石化</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000703" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000703</a></td><td>现有产能1049万吨/年 (权益产能)</td><td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">产业链位置: 中游</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>荣盛石化</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002493" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002493</a></td><td>现有产能1040万吨/年</td><td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">产业链位置: 中游</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>桐昆股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601233" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">601233</a></td><td>现有产能1020万吨/年</td><td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">产业链位置: 中游</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>新凤鸣</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603225" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">603225</a></td><td>现有产能800万吨/年</td><td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">产业链位置: 中游</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>东方盛虹</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000301" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000301</a></td><td>现有产能390万吨/年</td><td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">产业链位置: 中游</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>三房巷</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600370" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600370</a></td><td>320万吨PTA技改项目稳步建设</td><td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">产业链位置: 中游</div></td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold mb-4 text-emerald-400">下游: 聚酯产品 (长丝/瓶片/短纤)</h3>
|
||
<div class="space-y-6">
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<caption><div class="text-left font-semibold p-2 text-lg">涤纶长丝</div></caption>
|
||
<thead><tr><th>股票名称</th><th>股票代码</th><th>核心逻辑/产能</th></tr></thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>桐昆股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601233" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">601233</a></td><td>现有产能1350万吨/年（涤纶长丝行业龙头）</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>新凤鸣</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603225" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">603225</a></td><td>现有产能805万吨/年，国内市场占有率超12%</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>恒逸石化</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000703" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000703</a></td><td>参控股产能涤纶长丝（含聚酯切片）：677万吨/年</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>恒力石化</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600346" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600346</a></td><td>合计产能（涤纶长丝+民用丝）410万吨/年</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>东方盛虹</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000301" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000301</a></td><td>现有产能：360万吨/年</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>荣盛石化</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002493" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002493</a></td><td>现有产能：142万吨/年(POY+FDY+DTY)</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>尤夫股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002427" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002427</a></td><td>现有产能：30万吨/年（涤纶工业丝，全球排名第三）</td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<caption><div class="text-left font-semibold p-2 text-lg">聚酯瓶片</div></caption>
|
||
<thead><tr><th>股票名称</th><th>股票代码</th><th>核心逻辑/产能</th></tr></thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>荣盛石化</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002493" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002493</a></td><td>现有产能：530万吨/年</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>万凯新材</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301216" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">301216</a></td><td>现有产能：300万吨/年</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>三房巷</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600370" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600370</a></td><td>现有产能：240万吨/年 (2021年国内市占率19.34%)</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>恒逸石化</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000703" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000703</a></td><td>现有产能：235万吨/年 (权益产能)</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>华润材料</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301090" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">301090</a></td><td>现有产能：210万吨/年</td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<caption><div class="text-left font-semibold p-2 text-lg">涤纶短纤</div></caption>
|
||
<thead><tr><th>股票名称</th><th>股票代码</th><th>核心逻辑/产能</th></tr></thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>恒逸石化</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000703" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000703</a></td><td>参控股产能：118万吨/年</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>华西股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000936" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000936</a></td><td>现有产能：50万吨/年</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>优彩资源</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002998" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002998</a></td><td>现有产能：34.54万吨/年</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>江南高纤</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600527" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600527</a></td><td>复合短纤维产能：23万吨/年</td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
</div>
|
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|
||
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textStyle: {
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}
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legend: {
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