438 lines
30 KiB
HTML
438 lines
30 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>深度行研报告：芯片替代</title>
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font-family: 'Lexend', sans-serif;
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background-color: #0a090c;
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background-image:
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radial-gradient(ellipse 80% 80% at 50% -20%, rgba(120, 119, 198, 0.3), rgba(255, 255, 255, 0)),
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border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
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box-shadow: 0 8px 32px 0 rgba(31, 38, 135, 0.2);
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<body class="min-h-screen p-4 sm:p-8">
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<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center py-12">
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<h1 class="text-5xl font-bold glow-text bg-gradient-to-r from-cyan-400 to-fuchsia-500 text-transparent bg-clip-text">
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深度行研报告：芯片替代
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</h1>
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<p class="mt-4 text-lg text-slate-400">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-slate-500 mt-2">本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。</p>
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</header>
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<!-- Insight Section -->
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<main class="space-y-12">
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<!-- Core Viewpoint -->
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<section class="glass-card p-8">
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<h2 class="section-title">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<p class="text-slate-300 leading-relaxed text-lg">
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“芯片替代”已从一个防御性的、边缘性的市场主题，演变为由<strong class="text-cyan-300">地缘政治冲突倒逼</strong>和<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">国家战略强力驱动</strong>的确定性长期主线。当前，该概念正处于从低端消费电子向<strong class="text-sky-300">AI算力、汽车、工业</strong>等高价值、高壁垒领域全面渗透的关键加速期。其核心驱动力是“<strong class="text-amber-300">非对称优势</strong>”的建立——即在外部供应被“物理隔绝”或“成本抬高”的领域，国产芯片凭借<strong class="text-emerald-300">可获得性</strong>和<strong class="text-rose-400">政策支持</strong>获得了无可比拟的竞争优势。
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</p>
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</section>
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<!-- Bento Grid for Drivers -->
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<section>
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<h2 class="section-title">核心驱动力与市场逻辑</h2>
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<div class="grid-item col-span-12 lg:col-span-4 glass-card p-6 flex flex-col justify-between">
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl text-red-400 mb-2">外力倒逼 (生存逻辑)</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-400">美国持续加码的制裁，使得高端芯片获取变得“不再安全、不再可靠”。对于国内关键领域，寻求国产替代已是“必答题”。英伟达在中国AI芯片市场<strong class="text-white">超过90%</strong>的份额，构成了巨大的替代空间。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="text-right mt-4 opacity-50 text-4xl font-black">01</div>
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</div>
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<div class="grid-item col-span-12 lg:col-span-4 glass-card p-6 flex flex-col justify-between">
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl text-blue-400 mb-2">内力驱动 (发展逻辑)</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-400">国家层面提升科技自立战略高度，通过行政指令（禁购NV芯片）、国企采购指标（车企国产化率>50%）等方式，强行创造并锁定市场需求，为国产芯片提供宝贵的初始市场和迭代机会。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="text-right mt-4 opacity-50 text-4xl font-black">02</div>
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</div>
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<div class="grid-item col-span-12 lg:col-span-4 glass-card p-6 flex flex-col justify-between">
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl text-green-400 mb-2">经济性考量 (商业逻辑)</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-400"><strong class="text-white">125%</strong>的关税使美国模拟芯片等丧失成本优势。国内晶圆代工厂（中芯、华虹）价格比台系低<strong class="text-white">15%-20%</strong>，使得国产芯片在成熟制程领域具备了商业上的吸引力。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="text-right mt-4 opacity-50 text-4xl font-black">03</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- ECharts & Expectation Gap -->
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<section class="bento-grid">
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<div class="grid-item col-span-12 lg:col-span-5 glass-card p-6">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl text-slate-200 mb-2">商用交换芯片市场格局 (中国)</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm mb-4">数据显示，海外厂商占据绝对主导地位，为国产替代留下了广阔空间。</p>
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<div id="marketShareChart" style="width: 100%; height: 300px;"></div>
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</div>
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<div class="grid-item col-span-12 lg:col-span-7 glass-card p-6" x-data="{ tab: 'positive' }">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl text-slate-200 mb-4">预期差分析</h3>
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<div class="tabs tabs-boxed bg-slate-900/50">
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<a class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'positive'}" @click="tab = 'positive'">积极预期差</a>
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<a class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'negative'}" @click="tab = 'negative'">消极预期差</a>
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</div>
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<div class="mt-4 text-slate-300 space-y-3 leading-relaxed" x-show="tab === 'positive'">
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<p><strong class="text-cyan-300">替代质量：</strong>市场普遍认为国产是“降级替代”，但英伟达“特供版”芯片性能因替换HBM而大幅缩水，可能导致国产高端芯片（如昇腾910C）性能<strong class="text-white">反超</strong>，实现“<strong class="text-emerald-400">升级替代</strong>”。</p>
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<p><strong class="text-cyan-300">替代速度：</strong>市场可能低估了行政命令的执行力度。“责令停止采购”、“国产化率超50%”等要求表明，替代进程可能比市场预期的线性外推<strong class="text-white">更快、更具强制性</strong>。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="mt-4 text-slate-300 space-y-3 leading-relaxed" x-show="tab === 'negative'" style="display: none;">
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<p><strong class="text-rose-400">技术瓶颈：</strong>TI仍有<strong class="text-white">30%</strong>产品因IP垄断、工艺限制而难以替代；车规MCU仍多为低端替代，与英飞凌等差距显著。</p>
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<p><strong class="text-rose-400">国内竞争：</strong>寒武纪与华为等国产厂商之间存在激烈竞争，可能影响单一公司盈利能力。</p>
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<p><strong class="text-rose-400">供应链脆弱性：</strong>EDA、制造设备、核心材料等上游环节国产化率更低，是整个替代链条的潜在“木桶短板”。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Key Catalysts & Development Path -->
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<section class="glass-card p-8">
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<h2 class="section-title">关键催化剂与发展路径</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl text-amber-300 mb-4">近期催化剂 (未来3-6个月)</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-slate-300">
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<li><strong class="text-white">新一轮美国制裁名单</strong>落地，直接刺激相关领域替代需求。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">国产AI芯片大规模商用进展</strong>（寒武纪、华为订单确认及交付）。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">关键国产产品发布</strong>（如盛科通信25.6T交换芯片）及客户导入。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">具体国产化率考核指标</strong>等政策细则出台。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl text-indigo-300 mb-4">长期发展路径</h3>
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<ol class="space-y-4">
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<span class="h-8 w-8 rounded-full bg-indigo-500/30 text-indigo-300 flex items-center justify-center font-bold mr-4 flex-shrink-0">1</span>
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<div><strong class="text-white">点突破 & 政策驱动：</strong>在AI芯片等特定领域实现单点突破，份额来自政策性订单。</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<span class="h-8 w-8 rounded-full bg-indigo-500/30 text-indigo-300 flex items-center justify-center font-bold mr-4 flex-shrink-0">2</span>
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<div><strong class="text-white">线延伸 & 生态构建：</strong>从单一芯片到系统级替代，并围绕核心芯片构建软硬件生态。</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<span class="h-8 w-8 rounded-full bg-indigo-500/30 text-indigo-300 flex items-center justify-center font-bold mr-4 flex-shrink-0">3</span>
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<div><strong class="text-white">面普及 & 市场竞争：</strong>国产芯片凭借产品力在商业化市场自然获得份额，实现从“能用”到“好用”。</div>
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</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Raw Data Evidence -->
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<section>
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<h2 class="section-title">原始数据证据摘要</h2>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
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<input type="radio" name="my-accordion-3" checked="checked" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-sky-300">
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宏观驱动因素：制裁、关税与政策
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</div>
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<div class="collapse-content text-slate-400 space-y-2">
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<p><strong>[新闻]</strong> “据外媒报道特朗普政府将针对中国半导体再次发出强烈的制裁...新规定可能会将多达 200 家中国芯片公司列入贸易限制名单。”</p>
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<p><strong>[新闻]</strong> “根据中国半导体行业协会消息，中国对美加关税的集成电路原产地认定方式确认为晶圆制造地，将加速半导体国产替代。”</p>
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<p><strong>[新闻]</strong> “中国政府已指示互联网将预算及资源，转向华为和寒武纪等国产替代方案。”</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
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<input type="radio" name="my-accordion-3" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-emerald-300">
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AI芯片/国产算力
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</div>
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<div class="collapse-content text-slate-400 space-y-2">
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<p><strong>[新闻]</strong> “彭博：寒武纪计划将芯片产量提升三倍以在中国替代英伟达...将主要依托中芯国际最新的‘N+2’ 7纳米制程工艺进行生产。”</p>
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<p><strong>[路演]</strong> “海外先进制程流片受限（英伟达H20卡供给或从130万颗降至70万颗），国内算力需求转向华为、寒武纪、海光等国产厂商。”</p>
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<p><strong>[研报]</strong> “国产芯片性能可能大幅超越英伟达改版后芯片（GDDR7替代HBM），利好国产算力芯片。”</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
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<input type="radio" name="my-accordion-3" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-amber-300">
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汽车芯片
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</div>
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<div class="collapse-content text-slate-400 space-y-2">
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<p><strong>[路演]</strong> “国企背景车企（如长安、红旗）要求2025年国产化率超50%，优先导入国产功能安全芯片。”</p>
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<p><strong>[新闻]</strong> “中芯、华虹当前代工价格显著低于台系厂商（便宜15%~20%），加之国内终端客户对于国产化诉求提升，正在带动订单回流。”</p>
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<p><strong>[新闻]</strong> “【四部门：加快高压碳化硅模块、主控芯片等核心器件国产化替代】”</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
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<input type="radio" name="my-accordion-3" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-fuchsia-300">
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模拟芯片
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</div>
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<div class="collapse-content text-slate-400 space-y-2">
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<p><strong>[路演]</strong> “美国关税增加为国内模拟芯片企业创造替代空间，测算替代空间达300亿人民币，汽车（120亿）、工业（90亿）领域潜力最大。”</p>
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<p><strong>[路演]</strong> “TI产品线中70%可成熟替代，30%存在IP垄断、代际差、工艺限制。”</p>
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<p><strong>[研报]</strong> “2024年国产替代率提升至16%（2019年为个位数），但车规级、工业级等高端市场仍被TI、ADI等垄断。”</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Investment Insights -->
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<section class="glass-card p-8">
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<h2 class="section-title">投资启示与细分环节</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div class="border border-cyan-500/30 p-6 rounded-2xl bg-cyan-900/10">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-cyan-300 mb-3">“别无选择”型高端替代</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300 mb-4">外部供应被切断，国内龙头拥有“准入即独占”优势，需求确定性最高。</p>
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<div class="font-semibold text-cyan-200">AI算力芯片、高端交换芯片</div>
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</div>
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<div class="border border-emerald-500/30 p-6 rounded-2xl bg-emerald-900/10">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-emerald-300 mb-3">“空间广阔”型成熟替代</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300 mb-4">市场空间巨大，国产化率极低，受益于关税和供应链安全双重驱动。</p>
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<div class="font-semibold text-emerald-200">模拟芯片、汽车芯片</div>
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</div>
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<div class="border border-fuchsia-500/30 p-6 rounded-2xl bg-fuchsia-900/10">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-fuchsia-300 mb-3">“瓶颈突破”型上游环节</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300 mb-4">随着中游放量，上游瓶颈将成下一个价值高地，国产化突破带来巨大估值弹性。</p>
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<div class="font-semibold text-fuchsia-200">先进封装、核心设备与材料</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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||
</section>
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||
<!-- Stock Data -->
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<section>
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<h2 class="section-title">相关标的梳理</h2>
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<div class="glass-card p-6 overflow-x-auto">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl text-slate-200 mb-4">核心概念股</h3>
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>关联原因</th>
|
||
<th>其他标签</th>
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||
</tr>
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||
</thead>
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<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>利扬芯片</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688135" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">688135</a></td><td>公司系平头哥、比亚迪供应商，具体合作主体、模式、内容、交易金额基于商业机密原因，不方便透露</td><td>阿里平头哥</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>全志科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300458" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">300458</a></td><td>阿里玄铁优选伙伴之一，已基于平头哥RISC-V内核开发了多款芯片产品并在多个下游应用场景实现量产</td><td>阿里平头哥</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>香农芯创</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300475" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">300475</a></td><td>公司2019-2021年第一大客户都是阿里巴巴，子公司联合创泰为阿里云提供存储芯片等硬件</td><td>阿里平头哥</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>数据港</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603881" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">603881</a></td><td>公司与阿里合作的ZH13等数据中心项目正在有序的建设过程中</td><td>阿里平头哥</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>同有科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300302" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">300302</a></td><td>公司参股公司忆恒创源的企业级全国产PCIe5.0固态硬盘中的主控芯片采用了阿里平头哥自研RISC-V架构主控芯片</td><td>阿里平头哥</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>兆易创新</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603986" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">603986</a></td><td>兆易创新已推出基于平头哥玄铁E903处理器内核的MCU，是全球首款实现规模化量产的RISC-V架构通用MCU产品</td><td>阿里平头哥</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>长电科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600584" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">600584</a></td><td>为阿里平头哥AI芯片独家提供SiP封装，月产能超500万颗；承担平头哥超70%RISC-V芯片封测订单，提供高密度异构集成方案</td><td>阿里平头哥</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>拓维信息</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002261" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">002261</a></td><td>自研“兆瀚”AI服务器系列，基于“鲲鹏+昇腾”处理器打造，结合自研AI使能平台，形成全栈国产的大模型训推一体方案</td><td>华为910</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>广电运通</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002152" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">002152</a></td><td>同百度昆仑有合作伙伴关系，昆仑AI卡和五舟GPU服务器有做兼容适配认证</td><td>昆仑芯</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>国芯科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688262" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">688262</a></td><td>与昆仑芯签署了《战略合作框架协议》，双方将展开在边缘AI计算、车规功能安全SoC等技术领域的合作</td><td>昆仑芯</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>和而泰</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002402" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">002402</a></td><td>公司直接持股摩尔线程1.244%，摩尔第四代GPU芯片，增加了FP8精度支持，大幅提升AI算力</td><td>摩尔线程</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>超讯通信</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603322" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">603322</a></td><td>特定行业总代理商，拟与沐曦等共同投资设立讯曦智能，未来主要承担芯片的技术服务和服务器整机生产、销售等服务</td><td>沐曦</td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
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||
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||
<section>
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">近期涨幅异动分析</h2>
|
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<div class="glass-card p-6 overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="table w-full">
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<thead>
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||
<tr>
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||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>涨跌幅</th>
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||
<th>日期</th>
|
||
<th>核心驱动逻辑摘要</th>
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||
</tr>
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||
</thead>
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||
<tbody>
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||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688256" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">寒武纪</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="text-red-400 font-bold">+20.0%</span></td>
|
||
<td>2025-08-12</td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm text-slate-400">政策强制国产AI芯片份额+运营商集采点名+央企7.8亿元预付款三箭齐发，机构单日10亿元抢筹封板。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600877" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">电科芯片</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="text-red-400 font-bold">+10.01%</span></td>
|
||
<td>2025-11-27</td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm text-slate-400">“商业航天”政策红利与“国产芯片”行业景气双重叠加，公司作为重庆本地龙头，在低空经济政策刺激下，卫星芯片业务预期增强。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603186" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">华正新材</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="text-red-400 font-bold">+10.0%</span></td>
|
||
<td>2025-09-18</td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm text-slate-400">美国新一轮AI芯片出口管制将华为昇腾推上唯一替代风口，公司被官方认证为昇腾910C封装基板CCL第一供应商，利润弹性预期翻倍。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600171" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">上海贝岭</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="text-red-400 font-bold">+10.0%</span></td>
|
||
<td>2025-09-15</td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm text-slate-400">美国拟收紧40nm以下模拟芯片出口+长鑫/长储二期招标提速双重消息共振，资金将低估值、高替代弹性的公司作为情绪宣泄最优选。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301563" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">云汉芯城</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="text-red-400 font-bold">+20.0%</span></td>
|
||
<td>2025-10-16</td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm text-slate-400">“电子元器件流通环节国产化替代试点”传闻发酵，公司由“纯分销商”瞬间切换成“芯片信创流通第一股”。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=001309" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">德明利</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="text-red-400 font-bold">+10.0%</span></td>
|
||
<td>2025-11-06</td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm text-slate-400">DDR5/NAND现货跳涨+“数据中心用国产芯片电费减免”政策预期，点燃公司存货重估与国产替代需求双击。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
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</div>
|
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</section>
|
||
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<footer class="text-center py-10 text-slate-500 text-sm">
|
||
<p>北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研”</p>
|
||
<p>本报告由AI基于公开信息合成，不构成任何投资建议，据此操作，风险自担。</p>
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