507 lines
31 KiB
HTML
507 lines
31 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>深度研报：苹果折叠屏概念</title>
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js" defer></script>
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<style>
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body {
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font-family: 'Manrope', sans-serif;
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background-color: #05050a;
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color: #e0e0e0;
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overflow-x: hidden;
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background-image:
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radial-gradient(circle at 10% 10%, rgba(58, 92, 229, 0.2) 0%, transparent 25%),
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display: grid;
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gap: 1rem;
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grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit, minmax(300px, 1fr));
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font-size: 2.25rem;
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.section-subtitle {
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font-size: 1.125rem;
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.table thead th, .table tbody td {
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background-color: transparent;
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="min-h-screen">
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<main class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8 space-y-16">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center py-12">
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<h1 class="text-5xl md:text-7xl font-bold bg-gradient-to-r from-purple-400 via-blue-400 to-indigo-500 text-transparent bg-clip-text mb-4">
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苹果折叠屏 · 概念深度研报
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</h1>
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<p class="text-lg text-slate-400 max-w-3xl mx-auto">
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市场预期苹果将凭借其品牌、技术与生态优势，解决现有折叠屏痛点，重新定义品类，催生新一轮高端换机潮。
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</p>
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<div class="mt-4 text-xs text-slate-600">
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<p>北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现</p>
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<p>本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。</p>
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</div>
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</header>
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<!-- Core Insight -->
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<section class="space-y-12">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-8 glow-border">
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<h2 class="section-title mb-2">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<p class="section-subtitle">
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苹果折叠屏概念已从远期主题炒作过渡至<strong class="text-indigo-300">基本面驱动的供应链验证阶段</strong>。
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核心驱动力源于苹果旨在解决行业痛点（折痕、厚度）并引爆高端换机市场的确定性预期。
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未来1-2年内，概念的价值核心将围绕具有高技术壁垒、价值量显著提升的
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<strong class="text-purple-300">铰链（Hinge）、超薄柔性玻璃（UTG）及相关新材料新工艺</strong>环节，
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其核心供应商的业绩兑现能力将成为市场焦点。
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</p>
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</div>
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<!-- Timeline -->
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<div>
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<h2 class="section-title text-center mb-4">关键时间轴</h2>
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<p class="section-subtitle text-center mb-8">从概念酝酿到产品发布预期的演进路径</p>
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<div id="timeline-chart" class="w-full h-96 glass-card rounded-3xl p-4"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Core Logic -->
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<div class="space-y-8">
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<h2 class="section-title text-center">概念核心驱动力：供给创造需求</h2>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-blue-300 mb-3">1. 技术革新驱动</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300">苹果作为“改良者”和“定义者”，旨在解决折痕、厚度、重量等市场痛点。通过无折痕显示方案、液态金属/3D打印铰链、自愈合屏幕等专利技术，创造全新购买理由。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-purple-300 mb-3">2. 商业价值驱动</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300">折叠形态显著提升单机价值量，预测售价高达$2000-$2500，毛利率达58%-64%，远超现有iPhone。为苹果和供应链（铰链约$110，UTG约$100）开辟巨大增量空间。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-indigo-300 mb-3">3. 生态延伸驱动</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300">布局不止于手机，计划于2027年推出折叠iPad/MacBook。折叠屏是苹果未来十年产品形态演进的重要战略方向，为产业链提供长期可持续的增长叙事。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Expectation Gap -->
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<div class="space-y-8">
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<h2 class="section-title text-center">预期差分析</h2>
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<div class="space-y-4 max-w-4xl mx-auto">
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<div class="daisy-collapse daisy-collapse-arrow glass-card rounded-2xl">
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<input type="radio" name="expectation-gap" checked="checked" />
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<div class="daisy-collapse-title text-lg font-medium text-amber-300">
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产品首发顺序预期差
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</div>
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<div class="daisy-collapse-content">
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<p class="text-slate-300">主流预期2026年首发折叠iPhone，但有路演信息指出可能<strong class="text-white">先于2026年发折叠iPad，2027年再发手机</strong>，以验证技术。若此为真，手机供应链预期将推迟一年，是最大“黑天鹅”。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="daisy-collapse daisy-collapse-arrow glass-card rounded-2xl">
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<input type="radio" name="expectation-gap" />
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<div class="daisy-collapse-title text-lg font-medium text-amber-300">
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销量与定价的矛盾预期差
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</div>
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<div class="daisy-collapse-content">
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<p class="text-slate-300">市场期待千万级销量，但可能忽略了<strong class="text-white">$2000+高价</strong>的抑制作用。UBS调研显示仅18%用户愿付此高价。初代产品可能面临“叫好不叫座”风险，实际销量或低于最乐观预期。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="daisy-collapse daisy-collapse-arrow glass-card rounded-2xl">
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<input type="radio" name="expectation-gap" />
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<div class="daisy-collapse-title text-lg font-medium text-amber-300">
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“独家”与“多家”供应商的预期差
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</div>
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<div class="daisy-collapse-content">
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<p class="text-slate-300">新闻稿频繁提及“独家供应”，给予市场高业绩弹性预期。但路演揭示苹果策略是<strong class="text-white">引入多家供应商以避免垄断</strong>。许多“独家”可能仅限NPI或早期阶段，长期份额存在稀释风险。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Industry Chain Bento Grid -->
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<div class="space-y-8">
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<h2 class="section-title text-center mb-8">产业链深度剖析</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<!-- Left Column -->
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<div class="space-y-6">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-sky-300 mb-3">上游：核心材料与设备</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-slate-300">
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<li><strong>核心材料:</strong> 液态金属(宜安科技), 钛合金, UTG原片(凯盛科技), OLED材料(奥来德)</li>
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<li><strong>核心设备:</strong> UTG贴合设备(联得装备), 3D打印设备(华曙高科), 自动化设备(赛腾股份)</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-teal-300 mb-3">下游：整机组装 (EMS)</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-slate-300">
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<li><strong>富士康 (Hon Hai):</strong> 独家承担NPI和首发量产，地位最稳固。</li>
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<li><strong>立讯精密:</strong> 预期为2027年进入的二供，长期潜在受益者。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Right Column (Larger) -->
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<div class="lg:col-span-2 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-lime-300 mb-3">中游：屏幕、铰链与结构件</h3>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-white mb-2">屏幕模组</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1 text-slate-300">
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<li><strong>OLED面板:</strong> 三星显示 (SDC) 初期独家供应。</li>
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<li><strong>UTG盖板:</strong> 蓝思科技 "独家开发"，价值量提升巨大。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-white mb-2">铰链/结构件</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1 text-slate-300">
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<li><strong>铰链组装:</strong> 安费诺 (Amphenol) 为主供。</li>
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<li><strong>MIM部件:</strong> 精研科技, 统联精密 (面临多家竞争)。</li>
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<li><strong>3D打印部件:</strong> 铂力特 "独家供应商"，弹性惊人。</li>
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<li><strong>液态金属:</strong> 宜安科技 核心供应商，技术壁垒高。</li>
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<li><strong>电池:</strong> ATL独供，信维/领益供应钢壳。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-rose-300 mb-3">核心创新者 (弹性最大)</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-slate-300"><strong class="text-white">蓝思科技:</strong> UTG盖板+中框，价值量提升4-5倍。<br><strong class="text-white">铂力特:</strong> 3D打印独供，解决钛合金成型难题。<br><strong class="text-white">宜安科技:</strong> 液态金属核心供应商，技术壁垒高。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-fuchsia-300 mb-3">领导者 (确定性高)</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-slate-300"><strong class="text-white">富士康:</strong> NPI+首发代工。<br><strong class="text-white">三星显示:</strong> 屏幕独家供应。<br><strong class="text-white">安费诺:</strong> 铰链主供。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-violet-300 mb-3">追赶者 (存在不确定性)</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-slate-300"><strong class="text-white">统联/精研:</strong> MIM部件多方竞争。<br><strong class="text-white">立讯精密:</strong> 长期组装/铰链二供预期。<br><strong class="text-white">京东方等:</strong> 国内面板厂长期追赶。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Risks & Challenges -->
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<div class="space-y-8">
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<h2 class="section-title text-center">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 max-w-5xl mx-auto">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-red-400 mb-3">技术与商业化风险</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-slate-300">
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<li><strong>量产良率:</strong> "无折痕"屏幕与精密铰链在千万级量产下面临巨大挑战。</li>
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<li><strong>高昂定价:</strong> $2000+售价可能严重抑制初期需求，导致销量不及预期。</li>
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<li><strong>应用场景:</strong> 能否开发出"杀手级"应用支撑高价是关键。</li>
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<li><strong>技术替代:</strong> 三折屏、卷轴屏等更前沿技术可能构成颠覆风险。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-orange-400 mb-3">竞争与信息交叉风险</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-slate-300">
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<li><strong>竞争加剧:</strong> 2026年华为、三星产品将更成熟、成本更低。</li>
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<li><strong>专利风险:</strong> 可能依赖华为等专利，需协商授权，带来额外成本。</li>
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<li><strong>核心矛盾点:</strong> 首发产品是iPhone还是iPad？供应商是独家还是多家？销量预测差异巨大？这些是影响投资节奏的核心不确定性。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Supporting Data -->
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<div class="space-y-8" x-data="{ activeTab: 'news' }">
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<h2 class="section-title text-center">多源情报汇总</h2>
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<div role="tablist" class="tabs tabs-boxed max-w-lg mx-auto bg-slate-800/50">
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<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': activeTab === 'news'}" @click="activeTab = 'news'">新闻数据</a>
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<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': activeTab === 'roadshow'}" @click="activeTab = 'roadshow'">路演纪要</a>
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<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': activeTab === 'research'}" @click="activeTab = 'research'">研报精粹</a>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 min-h-[300px]">
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<div x-show="activeTab === 'news'" x-transition>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-blue-300 mb-4">新闻数据摘要</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-3 text-slate-300">
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<li><strong>发布时间:</strong> 高度集中于 <strong class="text-white">2026年Q3/下半年</strong>，产业链消息确认已进入量产前最后阶段。</li>
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<li><strong>产品规格:</strong> 主推“书本式”大折叠，内屏约12吋；采用三星无折痕显示方案；搭载硅碳负极电池 (ATL独供)；芯片采用2nm工艺。</li>
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<li><strong>销量预期:</strong> 2026年出货量预测区间较大，从1000万至3000万部不等。长期渗透率20%可达3000万部以上。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>核心供应商:</strong> <strong class="text-white">组装</strong>(富士康/立讯精密)，<strong class="text-white">铰链</strong>(安费诺/新日兴，液态金属-宜安，3D打印-铂力特)，<strong class="text-white">屏幕</strong>(三星/LGD)，<strong class="text-white">UTG</strong>(蓝思科技/联得装备)，<strong class="text-white">电池</strong>(ATL)。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div x-show="activeTab === 'roadshow'" x-transition>
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-purple-300 mb-4">路演纪要精要</h3>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-3 text-slate-300">
|
||
<li><strong>产品路线图争议:</strong> 出现<strong class="text-white">“2026年先发折叠iPad，2027年再发手机”</strong>的重要信息，与主流预期相悖。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>量产时间表:</strong> 明确指出 <strong class="text-white">2025年5月首次试装(NPI)，Q4完成EVT，2026年6月进入量产(MP)</strong>。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>铰链细节:</strong> 采用多级多连杆结构，比安卓水滴方案更复杂。明确<strong class="text-white">主供(安费诺)、副供(新日兴)、液态金属(宜安科技)、MIM(精研/统联等4家)</strong>的竞争格局。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>专利风险:</strong> 首次提及苹果折叠技术可能依赖<strong class="text-white">华为专利</strong>，需协商授权。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div x-show="activeTab === 'research'" x-transition>
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-indigo-300 mb-4">研报精粹</h3>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-3 text-slate-300">
|
||
<li><strong>开发阶段:</strong> 郭明錤指出项目于<strong class="text-white">2025Q3正式启动，2026Q4量产</strong>，初代销量预估为300-500万部，2027年二代产品有望达2000万部。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>技术方案:</strong> 确认UTG方案，自研“浮动式双轨铰链”以实现无折痕。制造工艺为<strong class="text-white">MIM为主，辅以3D打印和CNC</strong>。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>成本结构:</strong> 屏幕成本约$90-$100，铰链成本约$110，售价预计$2000-$2500。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>建议关注:</strong> 报告普遍建议关注 <strong class="text-white">MIM</strong>(东睦/精研), <strong class="text-white">3D打印</strong>(铂力特/华曙), <strong class="text-white">UTG</strong>(蓝思科技), <strong class="text-white">液态金属</strong>(宜安科技)。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Table -->
|
||
<section class="space-y-12">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title text-center">核心关联标的</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-3xl p-4">
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra w-full">
|
||
<thead class="text-slate-300 text-sm">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑</th>
|
||
<th>产业链环节</th>
|
||
<th>标签</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody id="stock-table-body" class="text-slate-300">
|
||
<!-- Stock data will be injected here by JavaScript -->
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<h2 class="section-title text-center mt-12">涨停异动分析</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-3xl p-4">
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<thead class="text-slate-300 text-sm">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th class="w-1/6">股票名称</th>
|
||
<th class="w-1/6">异动日期</th>
|
||
<th class="w-4/6">原因解析</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody id="rise-analysis-table-body" class="text-slate-300 align-top">
|
||
<!-- Rise analysis data will be injected here by JavaScript -->
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function () {
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// ECharts Timeline Initialization
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const timelineChart = echarts.init(document.getElementById('timeline-chart'));
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['2024-09-01', 1, '市场开始密集讨论 (2026-2027年入局预期)'],
|
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|
||
['2025-05-15', 2, '首次试装 (NPI) 启动'],
|
||
['2025-07-15', 2, '二次试装'],
|
||
['2025-11-01', 2, '设备订单开始下达'],
|
||
['2025-12-01', 2, '完成工程验证测试 (EVT)'],
|
||
['2026-06-01', 3, '下发2D图纸，进入量产 (MP) 阶段'],
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
||
|
||
// Stock Data Injection
|
||
const stockData = {
|
||
"宜安科技": { reason: "铰链液态金属；已批量向铰链组装厂商交付", tags: ["苹果供应商(潜在)", "铰链", "液态金属"], code: "300328" },
|
||
"联得装备": { reason: "苹果折叠屏UTG贴合设备独供", tags: ["苹果供应商(潜在)", "设备"], code: "300545" },
|
||
"统联精密": { reason: "苹果业务占比超70%；或为转轴MIM结构件供应商", tags: ["苹果供应商(潜在)", "铰链", "MIM工艺"], code: "688210" },
|
||
"三祥新材": { reason: "与宜安科技合作设立液态金属公司", tags: ["苹果供应商(潜在)", "液态金属"], code: "603663" },
|
||
"精研科技": { reason: "MIM零部件用于手机中框、内置结构件等", tags: ["铰链", "MIM工艺"], code: "300709" },
|
||
"铂力特": { reason: "3D打印独供，攻克钛合金成型难题，营收弹性巨大", tags: ["铰链", "3D打印"], code: "688333" },
|
||
"华曙高科": { reason: "3D打印制作钛合金零部件可用于消费电子", tags: ["铰链", "3D打印"], code: "688433" },
|
||
"蓝思科技": { reason: "提供UTG玻璃、CPI薄膜、金属组件等，价值量提升大", tags: ["盖板", "UTG"], code: "300433" },
|
||
"凯盛科技": { reason: "UTG产品可用于折叠屏，已送样客户测试", tags: ["盖板", "UTG"], code: "600552" },
|
||
"长信科技": { reason: "A公司NB&PAD减薄业务供应商", tags: ["苹果供应商(潜在)", "盖板", "UTG"], code: "300088" },
|
||
"东睦股份": { reason: "苹果是重要客户；子公司拥有液态金属业务", tags: ["铰链", "液态金属", "MIM工艺"], code: "600114" },
|
||
"领益智造": { reason: "提供精密功能件、结构件、模组等全产业链服务", tags: ["铰链", "CNC工艺"], code: "002600" },
|
||
"鹏鼎控股": { reason: "", tags: ["柔性电路板"], code: "002938" },
|
||
"东山精密": { reason: "", tags: ["柔性电路板"], code: "002384" },
|
||
};
|
||
|
||
const stockTableBody = document.getElementById('stock-table-body');
|
||
Object.entries(stockData).forEach(([stock, data]) => {
|
||
let mainTag = '';
|
||
if (data.tags.includes('铰链')) mainTag = '铰链';
|
||
else if (data.tags.includes('盖板')) mainTag = '盖板';
|
||
else if (data.tags.includes('设备')) mainTag = '设备';
|
||
else if (data.tags.includes('柔性电路板')) mainTag = '柔性电路板';
|
||
|
||
const row = `
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="font-semibold">${stock} ${data.code ? `(<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=${data.code}" target="_blank" class="text-blue-400 hover:underline">${data.code}</a>)` : ''}</td>
|
||
<td>${data.reason}</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge ${mainTag === '铰链' ? 'badge-secondary' : mainTag === '盖板' ? 'badge-primary' : mainTag === '设备' ? 'badge-accent' : 'badge-info'} badge-outline">${mainTag || '其他'}</div></td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<div class="flex flex-wrap gap-1">
|
||
${data.tags.map(tag => `<span class="badge badge-ghost text-xs">${tag}</span>`).join('')}
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
`;
|
||
stockTableBody.innerHTML += row;
|
||
});
|
||
|
||
const riseAnalysisData = [
|
||
{ stock: "东尼电子", stock_code: "603595", trade_date: "2025-08-29", reason: "核心结论: 9 月苹果 iPhone 17 与华为三折叠屏“双旗舰”备货启动，东尼电子作为钛合金中框高强合金线材与折叠屏极细合金线材双料供应商，叠加市值小、前期滞涨，资金集中抢筹补涨。<br><br>驱动概念: 消费电子+钛合金中框+折叠屏" },
|
||
{ stock: "朝阳科技", stock_code: "002981", trade_date: "2025-07-03", reason: "核心结论: 朝阳科技涨停源于“消费电子以旧换新补贴+苹果折叠iPhone原型启动”双重催化，叠加公司苹果ANC耳机结构件NPI定点落地，形成政策与订单共振。<br><br>驱动概念: 消费电子以旧换新+苹果折叠屏+苹果链" },
|
||
{ stock: "家联科技", stock_code: "301193", trade_date: "2025-10-31", reason: "核心结论: 上涨并非源于公司直接利好，而是典型的“主题性机会”下的市场情绪溢出。核心驱动力是市场对“苹果折叠屏产业链”的狂热追捧，而家联科技因其“新材料”概念标签，被市场资金进行了“联想式”挖掘和“跟风式”炒作。<br><br>驱动概念: 主题溢出（苹果折叠屏） + 板块轮动" }
|
||
];
|
||
|
||
const riseAnalysisTableBody = document.getElementById('rise-analysis-table-body');
|
||
riseAnalysisData.forEach(item => {
|
||
const row = `
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="font-semibold">${item.stock} <a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=${item.stock_code}" target="_blank" class="text-blue-400 hover:underline">(${item.stock_code})</a></td>
|
||
<td>${item.trade_date}</td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm leading-relaxed whitespace-normal">${item.reason}</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
`;
|
||
riseAnalysisTableBody.innerHTML += row;
|
||
});
|
||
|
||
});
|
||
</script>
|
||
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html> |