441 lines
27 KiB
HTML
441 lines
27 KiB
HTML
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<title>药辅微晶纤维素 - 深度行业研究报告</title>
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<div class="aurora-3"></div>
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</div>
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 sm:p-6 lg:p-8 max-h-screen overflow-y-auto">
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<header class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="font-orbitron text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold text-transparent bg-clip-text bg-gradient-to-r from-purple-400 via-cyan-300 to-purple-400 text-glow animate-pulse">
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药辅微晶纤维素
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</h1>
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<p class="mt-4 text-lg text-purple-200/80">深度行业研究报告</p>
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<p class="mt-2 text-sm text-cyan-200/60">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研”</p>
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</header>
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<main class="space-y-8">
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<!-- Insight Section -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="font-orbitron text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold mb-6 border-l-4 border-cyan-400 pl-4 text-cyan-300">概念洞察 (Concept Insight)</h2>
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<div class="space-y-6 text-gray-300">
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-purple-300 mb-2">0. 概念事件</h3>
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<p>“药辅微晶纤维素”（MCC）概念的核心是高端药用辅料的国产化替代与产业升级，其发展脉络与中国的药品审评审批制度改革，特别是仿制药一致性评价政策紧密相连。随着“仿制药一致性评价”政策的全面推行，倒逼制药企业必须采用高质量、高稳定性的药用辅料，从而为性能达标且具备成本优势的国产高端辅料打开了市场空间。微晶纤维素（MCC）作为性能优于传统淀粉类的核心固体制剂辅料，正处于这一替代浪潮的中心。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-purple-300 mb-2">1. 核心观点摘要</h3>
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<p class="border-l-2 border-cyan-400 pl-4 italic">药辅微晶纤维素概念正处于由政策驱动向基本面兑现过渡的<strong>加速成长期</strong>。其核心驱动力源于仿制药一致性评价带来的<strong>强制性产业升级</strong>与显著成本优势下的<strong>进口替代</strong>双重逻辑。未来，该概念的潜力不仅在于存量市场的份额替代，更在于向<strong>植物胶囊、食品添加剂</strong>等新应用场景的拓展和产品结构的<strong>高端化</strong>。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-purple-300 mb-2">2. 核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-4 list-disc list-inside">
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<li><strong>核心驱动力:</strong>
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<ul class="pl-6 mt-2 space-y-1 text-gray-400">
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-300">政策强制驱动：</strong>仿制药一致性评价及关联审评审批制度是“发令枪”，拔高了行业准入门槛，利好头部规范企业。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-300">极致性价比优势：</strong>国产MCC售价仅为进口产品的1/3至1/2（22-30元/KG vs 62-186元/KG），在集采降本背景下吸引力巨大。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-300">产业升级需求：</strong>MCC在可压性、粘合性上更优，适用于直接压片等先进工艺，迎合了制剂生产技术升级趋势。</li>
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</ul>
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</li>
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<li><strong>预期差分析:</strong>
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<ul class="pl-6 mt-2 space-y-1 text-gray-400">
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<li><strong class="text-purple-300">增长质量 vs. 增长速度：</strong>市场关注销量增长，但路演揭示“常规型号降价，高附加值型号有议价权”，未来增长质量（高附加值产品占比）更为关键。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-purple-300">产能扩张 vs. 产能消化：</strong>市场宣传新增产能巨大，但路演显示新厂区MCC产能利用率仅60%，产能释放与完全消化存在时间差。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-purple-300">单一产品逻辑 vs. 平台化逻辑：</strong>市场聚焦MCC替代故事，但龙头企业已开始布局HPMC、食品添加剂等平台化战略，市场认知可能滞后。</li>
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</ul>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-purple-300 mb-2">3. 关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h3>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div class="bg-black/20 p-4 rounded-xl border border-white/10">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-cyan-300 mb-2">近期催化剂 (未来3-6个月)</h4>
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<ul class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-1 text-sm text-gray-400">
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<li>新产能利用率从60%向80%以上提升。</li>
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<li>“粉状纤维素”等高附加值新品的商业化放量。</li>
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<li>“植物胶囊”及“食品级纤维素”等新应用领域的商业化突破。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-black/20 p-4 rounded-xl border border-white/10">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-purple-300 mb-2">长期发展路径</h4>
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<ol class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-1 text-sm text-gray-400">
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<li><strong>份额替代期 (当前):</strong> 凭借性价比抢占国内市场。</li>
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<li><strong>产品升级期:</strong> 转向硅化微晶纤维素等高端品类。</li>
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<li><strong>应用拓展期:</strong> 横向拓展至植物胶囊、食品添加剂。</li>
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<li><strong>国际化时期:</strong> 凭借认证和成本优势参与全球竞争。</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-purple-300 mb-2">4. 产业链与核心公司深度剖析</h3>
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<p><strong>产业链图谱:</strong> 上游 (木浆、棉短绒) → 中游 (微晶纤维素制造商) → 下游 (制药企业、食品企业、保健品企业)。</p>
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<p class="mt-2"><strong>核心玩家 - 绝对领导者：山河药辅 (300452)</strong>，其业务高度聚焦，产销量国内第一，拥有最丰富的产品矩阵和国际认证，是概念最纯粹、最核心的标的。路演数据显示其核心产品正高速放量（销量+23%，收入+22%），强力验证了核心逻辑。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-purple-300 mb-2">5. 潜在风险与挑战</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-400">
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<li><strong class="text-red-400">商业化风险:</strong> 随着竞争加剧，可能引发价格战，导致行业毛利率下滑；新产能消化不及预期将侵蚀利润。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-red-400">成本风险:</strong> 上游木浆、玉米等原材料价格波动会直接影响生产成本。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-red-400">政策风险:</strong> 下游药品集采政策的持续高压，可能向上游传导降价压力。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-purple-300 mb-2">6. 综合结论与投资启示</h3>
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<p><strong>最终看法:</strong> 药辅微晶纤维素概念已<strong>进入基本面驱动阶段</strong>，并非纯粹主题炒作，而是具备扎实产业基础的成长性机会。<strong>最具投资价值的环节是中游的龙头制造商</strong>，如山河药辅，其凭借综合优势构筑了较深的护城河。</p>
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<div class="mt-4 bg-black/20 p-4 rounded-xl border border-white/10">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-cyan-300 mb-2">需重点跟踪的关键指标:</h4>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-2 md:grid-cols-4 gap-2 text-center text-sm">
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<div class="bg-cyan-900/50 p-2 rounded-lg"><p>产能利用率</p></div>
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<div class="bg-cyan-900/50 p-2 rounded-lg"><p>产品均价与毛利率</p></div>
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<div class="bg-cyan-900/50 p-2 rounded-lg"><p>高附加值产品收入占比</p></div>
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<div class="bg-cyan-900/50 p-2 rounded-lg"><p>新应用领域订单</p></div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Bento Grid for supporting data -->
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<section class="grid md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-8">
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<!-- News Data Card -->
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<div class="glass-card p-6 md:col-span-1 lg:col-span-2">
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<h3 class="font-orbitron text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-cyan-300">新闻情报 (News Feed)</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-sm text-gray-300">
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<li><strong class="text-purple-300">纤维素衍生物价格波动:</strong> 醋酸丁酸纤维素(CAB)因关税政策价格上涨，凸显纤维素衍生物产业链受宏观政策影响及国产替代的共同主题。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-purple-300">相关企业产能扩张:</strong> 三维化学扩产1.5万吨纤维素项目，产品包括交联羧甲基纤维素钠，下游20%应用为医药领域。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-purple-300">药辅企业动态:</strong> 山河药辅发生安全事故，但位于交联羧甲纤维素钠车间，非MCC产线，对核心逻辑影响有限。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-purple-300">上游技术突破:</strong> 中科院在纤维素全碳素合成淀粉领域取得重要进展，提升了纤维素基础科学研究的关注度。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<!-- ECharts Card -->
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<div class="glass-card p-6 md:col-span-1">
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<h3 class="font-orbitron text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-cyan-300">市场规模预期</h3>
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<div id="market-size-chart" style="width: 100%; height: 220px;"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Roadshow Data Card -->
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<div class="glass-card p-6 md:col-span-1 lg:col-span-2">
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<h3 class="font-orbitron text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-cyan-300">路演纪要 (Roadshow Briefing)</h3>
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<div class="space-y-3 text-sm text-gray-300">
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<p><strong class="text-purple-300">山河药辅 - 关键数据验证:</strong></p>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside pl-2 space-y-2 text-gray-400">
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<li><strong>销量强劲增长:</strong> 2024Q1微晶纤维素(MCC)销量<strong class="text-teal-300 accent-glow">+23%</strong>；2024全年纤维素类收入<strong class="text-teal-300 accent-glow">+22%</strong>。</li>
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<li><strong>产能逐步释放:</strong> 新厂区MCC产能利用率达到<strong class="text-cyan-300">60%</strong>，发货周期从2-3个月缩短至1个月。</li>
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<li><strong>价格分化:</strong> 常规型号因竞争降价，但高附加值型号（定制规格）仍有议价权。</li>
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<li><strong>新应用拓展:</strong> 首次提及“植物胶囊应用”新增长点，并计划申报食品级纤维素产品。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Research Report Card -->
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<div class="glass-card p-6 md:col-span-1">
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<h3 class="font-orbitron text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-cyan-300">研报精粹 (Research Highlights)</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-sm text-gray-300">
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<li><strong class="text-purple-300">替代趋势明确:</strong> 高质量MCC正逐步替代低端淀粉类辅料。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-purple-300">巨大价格优势:</strong> 国产MCC (22-30元/KG) 显著低于进口 (62元/KG以上)。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-purple-300">龙头地位巩固:</strong> 山河药辅新增5000吨MCC产能，总产能达14,506吨 (+52.63%)，规模优势进一步扩大。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-purple-300">高成长预期:</strong> 预计2023-2025年，山河药辅纤维素类产品增速保持在15%以上，毛利率稳定在35%。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Stock Table Section -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="font-orbitron text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold mb-6 border-l-4 border-cyan-400 pl-4 text-cyan-300">核心标的清单 (Core Stocks)</h2>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="table table-zebra w-full">
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<thead class="text-base text-purple-300">
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<tr>
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<th class="bg-transparent">股票名称</th>
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<th class="bg-transparent">股票代码</th>
|
||
<th class="bg-transparent">核心逻辑</th>
|
||
<th class="bg-transparent">标签</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody class="text-gray-300">
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-purple-900/20">
|
||
<td class="font-bold bg-transparent">山河药辅</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300452" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:text-cyan-200">300452</a></td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent">公司微晶纤维素产销量居国内首位，产能5000吨/年（注：研报指新增后总产能达14506吨）</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent"><span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">产品</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-purple-900/20">
|
||
<td class="font-bold bg-transparent">山东赫达</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002810" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:text-cyan-200">002810</a></td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent">医药级纤维素醚是一种优质药用辅料，公司为行业内仅有的全产业链一体化企业；产能巨大。</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent"><span class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">纤维素醚(医用级)</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-purple-900/20">
|
||
<td class="font-bold bg-transparent">红日药业</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300026" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:text-cyan-200">300026</a></td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent">全资子公司展望药业产品包括微晶纤维素</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent"><span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">产品</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-purple-900/20">
|
||
<td class="font-bold bg-transparent">尔康制药</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300267" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:text-cyan-200">300267</a></td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent">药用辅料品种包括微晶纤维素</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent"><span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">产品</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-purple-900/20">
|
||
<td class="font-bold bg-transparent">九典制药</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300705" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:text-cyan-200">300705</a></td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent">已成功开发和生产药用辅料包括微晶纤维素</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent"><span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">产品</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-purple-900/20">
|
||
<td class="font-bold bg-transparent">太阳纸业</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002078" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:text-cyan-200">002078</a></td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent">研发项目涉及突破高性能药用微晶纤维素制备技术，为潜在进入者。</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent"><span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">研发技术</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-purple-900/20">
|
||
<td class="font-bold bg-transparent">西点药业</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301130" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:text-cyan-200">301130</a></td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent">公司致力于微晶纤维素等多糖类药用辅料的开发</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent"><span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">研发技术</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-purple-900/20">
|
||
<td class="font-bold bg-transparent">恒逸石化</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000703" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:text-cyan-200">000703</a></td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent">拥有“一种微晶纤维素改性聚酯纤维及其制备方法”相关专利</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent"><span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">研发技术</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-purple-900/20">
|
||
<td class="font-bold bg-transparent">宣泰医药</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688247" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:text-cyan-200">688247</a></td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent">拥有“一种微晶纤维素的制备方法”相关专利</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent"><span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">研发技术</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<footer class="text-center mt-12 pb-4">
|
||
<p class="text-xs text-gray-500">本报告为AI合成数据，信息来源于公开渠道，可能存在时效性、准确性等风险，不构成任何投资建议，投资需谨慎。</p>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
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