443 lines
30 KiB
HTML
443 lines
30 KiB
HTML
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<title>深度研究报告:Mobileye替代概念</title>
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-5xl font-bold text-transparent bg-clip-text bg-gradient-to-r from-purple-400 to-indigo-400">
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深度研究报告:Mobileye替代概念
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</h1>
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<p class="mt-4 text-lg text-indigo-200">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent:“价小前投研” 呈现</p>
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<!-- 0. 概念事件 -->
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<div @click="open = !open" class="p-6 cursor-pointer">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold flex justify-between items-center text-gray-100">
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<span>概念事件:地缘政治引爆产业趋势</span>
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<svg :class="{'rotate-180': open}" class="w-6 h-6 transition-transform" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M19 9l-7 7-7-7"></path></svg>
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</h2>
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</div>
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<div x-show="open" x-collapse class="px-6 pb-6 prose prose-custom max-w-none">
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<p>“Mobileye替代概念”的爆发并非源于单一事件,而是在宏观产业趋势下,由关键地缘政治事件引爆。其形成逻辑可分为长期背景与核心催化两个层面。</p>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 mt-6">
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<div class="p-4 border border-gray-700 rounded-2xl bg-gray-900/50">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-purple-300">长期背景:国产替代与产业竞争</h4>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>宏观趋势:</strong> 在半导体、汽车等关键领域,“国产替代”与“自主可控”已成为持续多年的强劲宏观逻辑。研报明确指出,国产智能驾驶芯片凭借价格与本土化服务优势,已在小算力市场实现稳定替代。</li>
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<li><strong>市场竞争:</strong> Mobileye自身面临激烈竞争,高端市场被英伟达主导,中国市场面临地平线、华为等追赶,同时车企自研趋势持续挤压其空间。</li>
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<li><strong>自身困境:</strong> 新闻数据显示,Mobileye在2024年8月下调了全年营收预期,特别提到“24H2中国区销售额的下滑”,并在同年9月宣布关闭激光雷达研发部门,显示其经营面临挑战。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 border border-red-500/50 rounded-2xl bg-red-900/20">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-red-300">核心催化:地缘政治与安全信任危机</h4>
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<blockquote>
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<p>事件:以色列以BP机爆炸实施袭击,民用设备用于军事用途,造成极大信任危机。</p>
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<cite>- 新闻数据, 2024-09-23</cite>
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</blockquote>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>引爆点:</strong> 2024年9月23日的新闻报道成为该概念的直接引爆点。市场担忧使用以色列技术(Mobileye)存在“后门”风险,引发了信任危机。</li>
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<li><strong>市场发酵:</strong> 事件迅速引爆市场对Mobileye在中国高达28%智能汽车占有率的担忧,其软硬件捆绑的“黑盒”模式成为焦点。</li>
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<li><strong>概念形成:</strong> 随后,“mobileye替代概念股梳理”、“汽车安全自主可控”等标签频繁出现,明确将地平线、天瞳威视等列为核心替代标的。</li>
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<li><strong>企业应对:</strong> Mobileye于2024年10月17日多次发布声明,强调其“全面依法经营”,侧面印证了其面临的巨大压力。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 1. 核心观点 -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-100 mb-4">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<p class="text-lg leading-relaxed text-indigo-200">
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“Mobileye替代概念”是地缘政治“黑天鹅”引爆长期产业趋势的典型案例。其核心驱动力是<strong>国家信息安全、供应链自主可控与存量市场竞争</strong>的三重叠加。当前,该概念已从纯粹的主题炒作,步入基本面验证阶段。在中低算力市场,以地平线为首的国产阵营正加速抢占份额;但在高算力领域,真正的对手是英伟דה,国产替代仍任重道远。
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</p>
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</section>
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<!-- 2. 核心逻辑与市场认知 -->
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<section x-data="{ open: true }" class="glass-card">
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<div @click="open = !open" class="p-6 cursor-pointer">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold flex justify-between items-center text-gray-100">
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<span>核心逻辑与市场认知分析</span>
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<svg :class="{'rotate-180': open}" class="w-6 h-6 transition-transform" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M19 9l-7 7-7-7"></path></svg>
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</h2>
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</div>
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<div x-show="open" x-collapse class="p-6 pt-0 prose prose-custom max-w-none">
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<div class="glass-card p-6 grid-col-span-2">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-purple-300">三重核心驱动力</h3>
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<ol class="mt-4 space-y-4">
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<li><strong>安全驱动(首要催化剂):</strong> “BP机爆炸”事件将智能汽车信息安全从技术议题升级为国家安全战略议题,为国产替代提供了最强理由和紧迫性。</li>
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<li><strong>产业驱动(根本逻辑):</strong> 研报和路演数据证实,国产芯片厂商(如地平线)凭借更优的性价比、更快的本土化响应和更开放的合作模式,早已在蚕食Mobileye的市场。安全事件只是按下了“加速键”。</li>
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<li><strong>商业驱动(车企选择):</strong> 车企出于成本控制、差异化竞争和核心技术栈自主可控的考量,正积极转向自研或本土供应商。路演数据显示,<strong>“ZEEKR自9月起转向自研系统(基于NVIDIA硬件)”</strong>便是一个标志性案例。</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-6">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-indigo-300">市场热度与情绪</h3>
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<p class="mt-4">市场热度极高,情绪整体乐观。2024年9月下旬新闻集中爆发,关联个股迅速形成,显示市场极高敏感度。市场情绪主要聚焦于国产厂商的“巨大替代空间”,以地平线为核心的生态链公司受到资金高度追捧。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-6 grid-col-span-2 grid-row-span-2">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-amber-300">预期差分析:认知、路径与风险的偏差</h3>
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<ul class="mt-4 space-y-4">
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<li>
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<strong>认知偏差:谁是真正的对手?</strong>
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<p class="text-sm pl-4 border-l-2 border-amber-400/50 mt-2">市场的普遍认知是将替代目标锁定为Mobileye。但路演和研报数据揭示了一个关键预期差:在中低端,对手确实是Mobileye;但在价值更高的高端智能驾驶(L3+)市场,<strong>英伟达Orin芯片占据了70%-80%的绝对主导地位</strong>。市场可能<strong>高估了替代Mobileye的难度,同时低估了挑战英伟达的壁垒</strong>。</p>
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</li>
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<li>
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<strong>路径偏差:替代 vs. 自研</strong>
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<p class="text-sm pl-4 border-l-2 border-amber-400/50 mt-2">市场关注的焦点是“谁来替代Mobileye”,但路演数据反复强调了<strong>主机厂自研</strong>这一强大趋势(如ZEEKR、比亚迪)。这意味着,未来的市场并非简单的“蛋糕再分配”,而是要与强大的客户(主机厂)直接竞争。</p>
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</li>
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<li>
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<strong>风险忽视:自研失败的反作用</strong>
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<p class="text-sm pl-4 border-l-2 border-amber-400/50 mt-2">市场普遍看好替代逻辑,但路演中提到的“<strong>大众自研失败后转向Mobileye合作,福特解散Argo AI团队</strong>”案例被市场忽略。这表明自研路径风险极高,若国内车企自研受挫,反而可能巩固成熟供应商的地位。</p>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-6">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-teal-300">关键催化剂</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside mt-4 space-y-2">
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<li>搭载国产中高算力芯片的爆款车型上市交付。</li>
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<li>汽车数据安全、智能网联准入等国家标准正式出台。</li>
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<li>地平线/黑芝麻等核心公司IPO进程。</li>
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<li>Mobileye财报持续验证中国区营收下滑。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 3. 产业链与核心公司 -->
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<section x-data="{ open: true }" class="glass-card">
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<div @click="open = !open" class="p-6 cursor-pointer">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold flex justify-between items-center text-gray-100">
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<span>产业链与核心公司深度剖析</span>
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<svg :class="{'rotate-180': open}" class="w-6 h-6 transition-transform" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M19 9l-7 7-7-7"></path></svg>
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</h2>
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</div>
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<div x-show="open" x-collapse class="p-6 pt-0 prose prose-custom max-w-none">
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<div class="lg:flex gap-6">
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<div class="flex-1">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-purple-300">产业链图谱</h3>
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<ul class="mt-4 space-y-3">
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<li><strong>上游:核心芯片/算法提供商 (国产替代主体)</strong>
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<p class="text-sm pl-4 text-gray-400">芯片设计: 地平线、黑芝麻智能、星宸科技 | 算法/方案: 天瞳威视</p>
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</li>
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<li><strong>中游:软件与生态合作伙伴 (“卖铲人”)</strong>
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<p class="text-sm pl-4 text-gray-400">操作系统/中间件: 中科创达 | 软件服务/解决方案: 光庭信息、锐明技术</p>
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</li>
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<li><strong>下游:硬件集成与整车应用</strong>
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<p class="text-sm pl-4 text-gray-400">Tier 1/零部件: 均胜电子、亚太股份 | 整车厂(OEM): 比亚迪、理想、蔚来等</p>
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</li>
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</ul>
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-purple-300 mt-6">核心玩家对比</h3>
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<p>关联个股数据中,<strong>9家公司里有8家</strong>明确提及与地平线的合作,显示其已构建起最广泛的产业生态,成为国产替代的领导者。</p>
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<blockquote>
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<p>L2及以下市场:Mobileye市占率70%-80%...但特斯拉纯视觉方案、地平线等本土厂商崛起(如地平线已在中国市场超越Mobileye)。</p>
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<cite>- 路演数据, 2024-03-24</cite>
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</blockquote>
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</div>
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<div class="flex-1 mt-6 lg:mt-0">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-red-400 text-center">高端智驾芯片市场格局 (L3+)</h3>
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<div id="marketShareChart" class="w-full h-80"></div>
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<p class="text-center text-sm text-gray-400">数据来源:路演纪要 (2024-03-24)。图表清晰揭示了高端市场英伟达的绝对主导地位,这是“Mobileye替代”概念中的一个关键认知偏差。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 4. 发展路径与风险 -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6">
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
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<div>
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-100 mb-4">长期发展路径</h2>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-4">
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<div class="bg-indigo-500/20 text-indigo-300 font-bold rounded-full w-8 h-8 flex items-center justify-center mr-4 flex-shrink-0">1</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold">第一阶段 (当前-2025):中低端全面替代</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">以地平线J系列、黑芝麻A1000系列为代表,全面占领10-25万元价格区间车型的L2/L2+级智驾市场。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<div class="bg-indigo-500/20 text-indigo-300 font-bold rounded-full w-8 h-8 flex items-center justify-center mr-4 flex-shrink-0">2</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold">第二阶段 (2025-2027):高端市场发起挑战</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">国产大算力芯片(如地平线J6P 560TOPS)量产上车,与英伟达Orin/Thor系列展开正面竞争。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<div class="bg-indigo-500/20 text-indigo-300 font-bold rounded-full w-8 h-8 flex items-center justify-center mr-4 flex-shrink-0">3</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold">第三阶段 (2027以后):生态与标准之争</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">构建类似CUDA的软件生态和开发工具链,争夺行业标准制定的话语权,并实现大规模出海。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-red-400 mb-4">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-4">
|
||
<li class="p-4 bg-red-900/20 border border-red-500/30 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-red-300">技术风险</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">高端芯片研发能否追上英伟达迭代速度;特斯拉“端到端”路线若成主流,可能颠覆现有技术栈。</p>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li class="p-4 bg-yellow-900/20 border border-yellow-500/30 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-yellow-300">商业化风险</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">Mobileye和英伟达若采取激进降价策略,将挤压国产厂商盈利空间;主机厂自研是所有第三方供应商共同的长期威胁。</p>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li class="p-4 bg-gray-800/20 border border-gray-600/30 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-gray-300">信息交叉验证风险</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">不同信息源揭示的竞争格局存在矛盾。市场对地平线生态的热捧,与路演揭示的英伟达在高端市场的霸主地位形成鲜明对比。</p>
|
||
</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 5. 综合结论 -->
|
||
<section class="glass-card p-6">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-100 mb-4">综合结论与投资启示</h2>
|
||
<div class="prose prose-custom max-w-none">
|
||
<p>“Mobileye替代概念”已走过纯粹的主题炒作,进入了<strong>基本面驱动与主题情绪共振</strong>的阶段。替代逻辑在中低端市场清晰且正在发生,具备坚实的基本面支撑。但在高端市场,替代故事才刚刚开始,面临的挑战远超市场普遍认知。这是一个<strong>结构性机会</strong>,而非全面性爆发。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>最具投资价值的细分环节:</strong>相较于直接承担巨大研发投入和市场竞争风险的芯片设计公司,<strong>与国产芯片龙头(目前看是地平线)深度绑定的软件与服务提供商(“卖铲人”)</strong>,如<strong>中科创达、光庭信息</strong>,可能是现阶段风险收益比更优的选择。它们受益于国产化浪潮,但自身业务模式更轻,能够分享平台增长的红利,同时规避了芯片行业残酷的“赢家通吃”风险。</p>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-lg text-indigo-300">需重点跟踪和验证的关键指标:</h4>
|
||
<ol>
|
||
<li><strong>国产芯片装机量与市占率:</strong>分季度跟踪核心厂商芯片出货量及在新车型中的渗透率(尤其是15万元以上车型)。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Mobileye与英伟达的定价策略:</strong>关注其产品是否有明显降价举动,这是行业竞争的“晴雨表”。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>核心替代公司的毛利率变化:</strong>验证其产品竞争力和议价能力。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>下游头部车企的技术路线选择:</strong>密切关注比亚迪、理想等头部车企下一代智驾平台的供应商选择。</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 6. 核心标的 -->
|
||
<section class="glass-card p-6">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-100 mb-4">“Mobileye替代概念”核心标的一览</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table table-custom w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th class="w-1/5">股票名称</th>
|
||
<th class="w-1/5">股票代码</th>
|
||
<th class="w-3/5">核心逻辑</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody id="stock-table-body">
|
||
<!-- JS will populate this -->
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<footer class="text-center mt-12 text-xs text-gray-500 glass-card p-4">
|
||
<p>本报告由北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent:“价小前投研” 基于公开数据合成。</p>
|
||
<p>报告内容仅供研究和参考,不构成任何投资建议。股市有风险,投资需谨慎。</p>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function () {
|
||
// ECharts Initialization
|
||
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|
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|
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const option = {
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
||
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|
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|
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|
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myChart.setOption(option);
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myChart.resize();
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}
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|
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// Stock Data Population
|
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const stockData = {
|
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"星宸科技": { "code": "301536", "reason": "与国内智驾龙头天瞳威视战略合作,天瞳威视有望获取Mobileye出让的市场份额。双方将推进极致性价比前视一体机及行泊一体方案落地。" },
|
||
"光庭信息": { "code": "301221", "reason": "地平线软件生态核心伙伴之一,受益于地平线平台生态的壮大。" },
|
||
"中科创达": { "code": "300496", "reason": "与地平线成立合资公司并控股,聚焦智能驾驶,围绕地平线芯片提供软件平台和算法服务,加速智驾规模化量产,逻辑纯粹度高。" },
|
||
"锐明技术": { "code": "002970", "reason": "与地平线在高级辅助驾驶(ADAS)和自动驾驶等领域为重点进行技术及产品合作。" },
|
||
"索菱股份": { "code": "002766", "reason": "与地平线签署战略合作框架协议,在汽车智能化技术与产品领域推动深层合作。" },
|
||
"四维图新": { "code": "002405", "reason": "与地平线等芯片公司达成战略合作,基于地平线J2/J3芯片的智驾方案均已量产。" },
|
||
"同兴达": { "code": "002845", "reason": "子公司积极开拓车载业务,与地平线、德赛西威、大疆车载等知名厂商展开深度合作。" },
|
||
"均胜电子": { "code": "600699", "reason": "已与英伟达、高通、地平线、黑芝麻等主流中外芯片厂商建立合作关系,覆盖广泛。" },
|
||
"亚太股份": { "code": "002284", "reason": "与地平线签署战略合作协议,围绕高级驾驶辅助、L2-L4自动驾驶、汽车视觉感知等领域展开深入合作。" }
|
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|
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|
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|
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<td>${data.reason}</td>
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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