459 lines
28 KiB
HTML
459 lines
28 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<title>制冷剂 - 深度行研报告</title>
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font-family: 'Poppins', sans-serif;
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background-color: #000010;
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background-image:
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radial-gradient(ellipse 80% 80% at 10% -20%, rgba(59, 130, 246, 0.15), transparent),
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radial-gradient(ellipse 80% 80% at 90% 120%, rgba(139, 92, 246, 0.15), transparent);
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color: #e0e0e0;
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font-family: 'Space Grotesk', sans-serif;
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background: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.05);
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backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
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margin-bottom: 2rem;
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.bento-grid {
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display: grid;
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grid-template-columns: repeat(6, 1fr);
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</head>
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<body class="min-h-screen p-4 sm:p-8 md:p-12">
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<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto space-y-12">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center space-y-4">
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<h1 class="font-space text-5xl md:text-7xl font-bold glow-text leading-tight">
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制冷剂 <span class="text-3xl md:text-5xl opacity-70">深度行研报告</span>
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</h1>
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<p class="font-light text-sm text-gray-400">
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北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent:“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现
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</p>
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</header>
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<!-- Insight Section -->
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<section x-data="{}" class="space-y-8">
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<h2 class="section-title">Concept Insight Analysis</h2>
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<!-- Core Logic & Market Analysis Card -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 space-y-6">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4">核心观点与市场逻辑</h3>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div class="md:col-span-1 p-4 rounded-2xl bg-white/5 border border-white/10">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-indigo-300 mb-2">核心观点摘要</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">
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制冷剂概念正处于一个由全球环保协议和国家配额政策强力驱动的、为期数年的供给侧改革“超级周期”之中。核心驱动力在于二代制冷剂加速淘汰与三代制冷剂供给冻结形成的“剪刀差”,叠加四代制冷剂因专利和成本问题短期无法形成有效替代,共同造就了供给刚性、需求稳增的供需错配格局。当前,该概念已从政策预期阶段进入基本面驱动的业绩兑现阶段。
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</p>
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</div>
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<div class="md:col-span-2 p-4 rounded-2xl bg-white/5 border border-white/10 space-y-4">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-indigo-300 mb-2">核心驱动力:政策驱动的供给刚性</h4>
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<ul class="text-sm text-gray-300 list-disc list-inside space-y-2">
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<li><strong>双重供给压缩:</strong> 二代(HCFCs)加速淘汰,2025年需淘汰基线值的67.5%;三代(HFCs)自2024年起冻结生产,2029年开始削减。这从根本上锁定了行业供给天花板。</li>
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<li><strong>替代真空期:</strong> 第四代制冷剂(HFOs)面临专利壁垒(美国专利2029年到期)和高昂成本(约12万元/吨 vs 三代 <2万元/吨),短期不具备商业替代可行性。</li>
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<li><strong>供需错配模型:</strong> 存量需求向三代转移 + 新增需求稳步增长 vs. 三代供给总量锁定 + 替代品缺位。龙头企业获得强大议价权。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 rounded-2xl bg-white/5 border border-white/10 mt-6">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-indigo-300 mb-2">预期差分析:政策的“调节器”角色</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">市场普遍将配额视为静态上限,但2024年R32配额的两次增发表明,生态环境部同时扮演“价格稳定器”角色,可能存在“政策顶”。此外,“内用配额可转出口,出口不可逆转”的微观结构,可能导致国内市场实际供应比名义配额更紧张,是价格超预期上涨的重要原因。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Catalysts & Timeline Card -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 space-y-6">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4">关键事件与未来路径</h3>
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<ul class="timeline timeline-snap-icon max-md:timeline-compact timeline-vertical">
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<li>
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<div class="timeline-middle">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-blue-400"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.001-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-start md:text-end mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic">2024年1月</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black font-space text-indigo-300">供给收缩元年</div>
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生态环境部首次核发三代制冷剂生产配额,供给端“紧箍咒”正式生效,行业进入供给冻结期。
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</div>
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<hr class="bg-blue-400/50"/>
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</li>
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<li>
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<hr class="bg-blue-400/50"/>
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<div class="timeline-middle">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-blue-300"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm.75-13a.75.75 0 00-1.5 0v5c0 .414.336.75.75.75h4a.75.75 0 000-1.5h-3.25V5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-end mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic">2025年</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black font-space text-purple-300">景气加速与主升浪</div>
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二代制冷剂配额大幅削减67.5%,需求进一步挤向三代。价格进入主升浪,内外贸共振,主流产品突破5万元/吨。
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</div>
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<hr class="bg-purple-400/50"/>
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</li>
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<li>
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<hr class="bg-purple-400/50"/>
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<div class="timeline-middle">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-purple-300"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm.75-13a.75.75 0 00-1.5 0v5c0 .414.336.75.75.75h4a.75.75 0 000-1.5h-3.25V5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-start md:text-end mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic">2029年</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black font-space text-fuchsia-300">首次削减冲击期</div>
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中国三代制冷剂配额将首次削减10%,供给端出现明确“硬缺口”,可能引发新一轮价格大幅上涨。
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</div>
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<hr class="bg-fuchsia-400/50"/>
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</li>
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<li>
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<hr class="bg-fuchsia-400/50"/>
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<div class="timeline-middle">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-fuchsia-300"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm.75-13a.75.75 0 00-1.5 0v5c0 .414.336.75.75.75h4a.75.75 0 000-1.5h-3.25V5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-end">
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<time class="font-mono italic">后2029年</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black font-space text-rose-300">代际更替过渡期</div>
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四代制冷剂核心专利陆续到期,国内企业有望规模化生产,成本下降。行业逻辑将从“供给为王”转向“成本与技术竞争”。
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</div>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Charts Section -->
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<section>
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<h2 class="section-title">Data Visualization</h2>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-4 md:p-6 h-[400px]">
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<div id="price-chart" class="w-full h-full"></div>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-4 md:p-6 h-[400px]">
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<div id="quota-chart" class="w-full h-full"></div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Bento Grid for Data Nuggets -->
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<section class="space-y-8">
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<h2 class="section-title">Key Data Points</h2>
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<div class="bento-item col-span-6 md:col-span-4 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h4 class="font-space text-xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-3">政策与配额</h4>
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<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm text-gray-300 list-disc list-inside">
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<li><strong>二代(HCFCs)削减:</strong> 2025年淘汰基线值的67.5%;2026年R141b配额削减至0。</li>
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<li><strong>三代(HFCs)配额:</strong> 2024年为配额期首年。2025年生产配额79.19万吨,内用配额38.96万吨。</li>
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<li><strong>配额增发:</strong> 2024/2025年均有针对R32的配额增发,体现政策的“调节器”作用,压制价格天花板。</li>
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<li><strong>行业集中度:</strong> 巨化、三美、昊华等前六大企业占据三代生产配额总数的90.81%。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="bento-item col-span-6 md:col-span-2 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h4 class="font-space text-xl font-bold text-purple-300 mb-3">供需关系</h4>
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<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm text-gray-300 list-disc list-inside">
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<li><strong>供给端:</strong> 配额严格限制,部分企业Q4安排检修,联合挺价。</li>
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<li><strong>需求端:</strong> 空调(占比~80%)、汽车、AI散热需求旺盛。家电以旧换新、空调出口高增提供支撑。</li>
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<li><strong>库存:</strong> 2024年末市场库存处于历史低位,为价格上涨提供有力支撑。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="bento-item col-span-6 md:col-span-2 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h4 class="font-space text-xl font-bold text-emerald-300 mb-3">盈利能力</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mb-2">价差持续扩大,企业盈利能力显著提升。</p>
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<div class="text-sm space-y-2">
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<p><strong>3月7日价差:</strong> R32达28,186元/吨, R134a达26,883元/吨。</p>
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<p><strong>6月5日毛利:</strong> R32行业毛利达3.5万元/吨,同比增超1万元。</p>
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<p><strong>三美股份:</strong> 前三季度业绩预增175.83%~198.05%。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="bento-item col-span-6 md:col-span-4 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h4 class="font-space text-xl font-bold text-amber-300 mb-3">出口情况 (内外贸)</h4>
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<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm text-gray-300 list-disc list-inside">
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<li><strong>内外价差:</strong> 早期内外价差较大,至2025年Q1主要品种内外销价格已基本持平,内外贸价格同频共振。</li>
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<li><strong>配额结构:</strong> 内用配额可转出口,但出口配额不可逆转,加剧了国内市场的供应紧张。</li>
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<li><strong>出口量:</strong> 2025年1-4月,R32出口同比增长9.0%,海外需求持续增长。R22/R134a出口同比下降。</li>
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<li><strong>配额消化:</strong> 截至7月,R32/R152a外用配额消化过半,R125消化率较低(29.10%)。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="bento-item col-span-6 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h4 class="font-space text-xl font-bold text-rose-300 mb-3">行业展望与风险</h4>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div>
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<h5 class="font-bold text-rose-200 mb-2">积极展望</h5>
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<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm text-gray-300 list-disc list-inside">
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<li><strong>长周期景气:</strong> 25年起点更高,格局更优,内外贸价格有望继续共振上行。</li>
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<li><strong>价格空间:</strong> “天花板仍很远”,路演预测三代价格上限或达四代成本的80% (约9.6万元/吨)。</li>
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<li><strong>龙头主导权:</strong> 国内龙头企业凭借配额优势,未来有望进一步取得全球主导权。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h5 class="font-bold text-orange-300 mb-2">风险提示</h5>
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<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm text-gray-300 list-disc list-inside">
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<li><strong>政策风险:</strong> 最核心风险。若价格过快上涨,监管可能增发配额进行干预,形成“政策顶”。</li>
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<li><strong>需求风险:</strong> 宏观经济波动导致下游空调、汽车等消费疲软。</li>
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<li><strong>技术风险:</strong> 四代制冷剂专利壁垒松动或成本下降快于预期。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Stocks Table Section -->
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<section class="space-y-8">
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<h2 class="section-title">Core Companies & Market Dynamics</h2>
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<!-- Main Companies Table -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4">核心制冷剂配额生产商</h3>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="table table-zebra">
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<thead>
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<tr>
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<th>股票名称</th>
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<th>推荐原因</th>
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<th>核心配额占比</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600160" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-300">巨化股份 (600160)</a></td>
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<td>绝对龙头,拥有无可匹敌的配额规模,是行业的“定盘星”和价格引领者。</td>
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<td class="text-xs">R32: 40%, R125: 35%, R134a: 32%, R143a: 45%</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603379" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-300">三美股份 (603379)</a></td>
|
||
<td>弹性黑马,配额位居第二,前瞻性布局四代制冷剂,兼具周期与成长属性。</td>
|
||
<td class="text-xs">R32: 12%, R125: 19%, R134a: 24%, R143a: 14%</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>中化蓝天</td>
|
||
<td>公司是三代制冷剂配额生产商,拥有多种制冷剂的生产配额。</td>
|
||
<td class="text-xs">R125: 14%, R134a: 23%, R245fa: 29%, R41: 100%</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=605020" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-300">永和股份 (605020)</a></td>
|
||
<td>特色玩家,在部分细分品种拥有较高配额,并向上游延伸布局萤石资源。</td>
|
||
<td class="text-xs">R143a: 32%, R152a: 33%, R227ea: 23%</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600673" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-300">东阳光 (600673)</a></td>
|
||
<td>公司是三代制冷剂配额生产商,拥有多种制冷剂的生产配额。</td>
|
||
<td class="text-xs">R32: 11%, R125: 10%, R134a: 2%</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>东岳集团</td>
|
||
<td>公司是三代制冷剂配额生产商,拥有多种制冷剂的生产配额。</td>
|
||
<td class="text-xs">R32: 20%, R125: 9%, R134a: 3%, R152a: 22%</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Rise Analysis Table -->
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4">涨幅异动分析</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票</th>
|
||
<th>涨幅 / 日期</th>
|
||
<th class="w-2/3">原因分析</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603086" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-300">先达股份 (603086)</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="font-mono text-success">10.0%</span><br><span class="text-xs opacity-70">2025-07-07</span></td>
|
||
<td class="text-xs whitespace-normal">核心结论: 烯草酮价格暴涨+出口配额落地+氟化工制冷剂景气共振。公司拥有8000吨/年含氟中间体产能,60%外售制冷剂原料R32/R125,直接受益于制冷剂行业景气。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688665" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-300">四方光电 (688665)</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="font-mono text-success">18.92%</span><br><span class="text-xs opacity-70">2025-07-22</span></td>
|
||
<td class="text-xs whitespace-normal">核心驱动:超预期业绩预告(H1净利+103%)。业绩增长原因之一是抓住北美温室减排和低GWP新型制冷剂替代机遇,以冷媒泄漏监测传感器为主的工业及安全业务收入延续高增长。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300343" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-300">ST联创 (300343)</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="font-mono text-success">5.78%</span><br><span class="text-xs opacity-70">2025-08-15</span></td>
|
||
<td class="text-xs whitespace-normal">业绩扭亏为盈。公司在投资者互动平台披露其在第四代制冷剂领域拥有HFO-1234yf等相关专利技术,现有产能1.2万吨并规划扩大至5万吨,产品已进入美的、格力供应链。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600336" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-300">澳柯玛 (600336)</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="font-mono text-success">5.62%</span><br><span class="text-xs opacity-70">2025-11-14</span></td>
|
||
<td class="text-xs whitespace-normal">上涨为预期驱动行情,与半导体资产注入预期相关。但作为制冷家电企业,市场对制冷剂配额等行业新闻会激活整个产业链热度,澳柯玛作为知名标的易受资金关注。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Footer -->
|
||
<footer class="text-center py-8">
|
||
<p class="text-xs text-gray-500">
|
||
本报告为AI合成数据,内容仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议。投资有风险,入市需谨慎。
|
||
<br>© 2024 北京价值前沿科技有限公司. All Rights Reserved.
|
||
</p>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function () {
|
||
// Price Chart
|
||
var priceChartDom = document.getElementById('price-chart');
|
||
var priceChart = echarts.init(priceChartDom, 'dark');
|
||
var priceOption = {
|
||
backgroundColor: 'transparent',
|
||
title: {
|
||
text: '主流制冷剂价格走势 (元/吨)',
|
||
left: 'center',
|
||
textStyle: { color: '#e0e0e0', fontFamily: 'Space Grotesk' }
|
||
},
|
||
tooltip: { trigger: 'axis' },
|
||
legend: {
|
||
top: 'bottom',
|
||
data: ['R32', 'R134a', 'R22'],
|
||
textStyle: { color: '#ccc' }
|
||
},
|
||
grid: {
|
||
left: '3%', right: '4%', bottom: '15%', containLabel: true
|
||
},
|
||
xAxis: {
|
||
type: 'category',
|
||
boundaryGap: false,
|
||
data: ['24-09', '24-11', '24-12', '25-01', '25-03', '25-05', '25-08', '25-11'],
|
||
axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: 'rgba(255,255,255,0.3)' } }
|
||
},
|
||
yAxis: {
|
||
type: 'value',
|
||
axisLabel: { formatter: '{value}' },
|
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splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: 'rgba(255,255,255,0.1)' } },
|
||
axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: 'rgba(255,255,255,0.3)' } }
|
||
},
|
||
series: [
|
||
{ name: 'R32', type: 'line', smooth: true, data: [35500, 40000, 43000, 42000, 48000, 52000, 59000, null], itemStyle: { color: '#60a5fa' } },
|
||
{ name: 'R134a', type: 'line', smooth: true, data: [33000, 40000, 40000, 42000, null, 49000, 51000, 60000], itemStyle: { color: '#a78bfa' } },
|
||
{ name: 'R22', type: 'line', smooth: true, data: [30000, null, null, null, null, 35500, 40500, null], itemStyle: { color: '#34d399' } }
|
||
]
|
||
};
|
||
priceChart.setOption(priceOption);
|
||
|
||
// Quota Chart
|
||
var quotaChartDom = document.getElementById('quota-chart');
|
||
var quotaChart = echarts.init(quotaChartDom, 'dark');
|
||
var quotaOption = {
|
||
backgroundColor: 'transparent',
|
||
title: {
|
||
text: '2025年三代制冷剂生产配额分布(Top 6)',
|
||
left: 'center',
|
||
textStyle: { color: '#e0e0e0', fontFamily: 'Space Grotesk' }
|
||
},
|
||
tooltip: {
|
||
trigger: 'item',
|
||
formatter: '{a} <br/>{b} : {c}万吨 ({d}%)'
|
||
},
|
||
legend: {
|
||
orient: 'vertical',
|
||
left: 'left',
|
||
top: 'center',
|
||
textStyle: { color: '#ccc' }
|
||
},
|
||
series: [
|
||
{
|
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name: '生产配额',
|
||
type: 'pie',
|
||
radius: ['40%', '70%'],
|
||
avoidLabelOverlap: false,
|
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itemStyle: {
|
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borderRadius: 10,
|
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borderColor: 'rgba(0,0,0,0.5)',
|
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borderWidth: 2
|
||
},
|
||
label: { show: false, position: 'center' },
|
||
emphasis: {
|
||
label: { show: true, fontSize: '20', fontWeight: 'bold' }
|
||
},
|
||
labelLine: { show: false },
|
||
data: [
|
||
{ value: 29.98, name: '巨化股份' },
|
||
{ value: 12.15, name: '三美股份' },
|
||
{ value: 7.2, name: '东岳集团' },
|
||
{ value: 6.5, name: '永和股份' },
|
||
{ value: 6.1, name: '东阳光' },
|
||
{ value: 10, name: '昊华科技(估算)' },
|
||
{ value: 7.26, name: '其他' } // (79.19 * 0.9081) - sum(others)
|
||
],
|
||
color: ['#3b82f6', '#8b5cf6', '#10b981', '#f97316', '#ec4899', '#6366f1', '#6b7280']
|
||
}
|
||
]
|
||
};
|
||
quotaChart.setOption(quotaOption);
|
||
|
||
window.addEventListener('resize', function() {
|
||
priceChart.resize();
|
||
quotaChart.resize();
|
||
});
|
||
});
|
||
</script>
|
||
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html> |