442 lines
27 KiB
HTML
442 lines
27 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>钽电容 - 深度行业洞察</title>
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<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.11.1/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<script defer src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js"></script>
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
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<style>
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@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:wght@300;400;500;600;700&display=swap');
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body {
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font-family: 'Inter', 'Helvetica Neue', 'Arial', 'sans-serif';
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background-color: #020412;
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background-image:
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radial-gradient(ellipse 50% 80% at 50% -20%, rgba(56, 189, 248, 0.15), transparent),
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radial-gradient(ellipse 40% 60% at 20% 110%, rgba(192, 132, 252, 0.1), transparent),
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radial-gradient(ellipse 40% 60% at 80% 100%, rgba(74, 222, 128, 0.1), transparent);
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background-attachment: fixed;
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color: #e5e7eb;
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}
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.glass-card {
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background: rgba(17, 24, 39, 0.5); /* bg-gray-900/50 */
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backdrop-filter: blur(24px);
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-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(24px);
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border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
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transition: all 0.3s ease;
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}
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.glass-card:hover {
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background: rgba(31, 41, 55, 0.6); /* bg-gray-800/60 */
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border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.2);
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transform: translateY(-4px) scale(1.01);
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box-shadow: 0 0 40px rgba(56, 189, 248, 0.1);
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}
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.bento-grid {
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display: grid;
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grid-template-columns: repeat(6, 1fr);
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grid-auto-rows: minmax(100px, auto);
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gap: 1.5rem; /* gap-6 */
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}
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.bento-item {
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transition: all 0.3s ease-in-out;
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}
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.grid-col-span-6 { grid-column: span 6; }
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.grid-col-span-4 { grid-column: span 6; }
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.grid-col-span-3 { grid-column: span 6; }
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.grid-col-span-2 { grid-column: span 6; }
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@media (min-width: 1024px) {
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.grid-col-span-4 { grid-column: span 4; }
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.grid-col-span-3 { grid-column: span 3; }
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.grid-col-span-2 { grid-column: span 2; }
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}
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.grid-row-span-2 { grid-row: span 2; }
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.fui-icon {
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width: 1.5rem;
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height: 1.5rem;
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stroke-width: 1.5;
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color: rgba(74, 222, 128, 0.8);
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}
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.glow-text-cyan {
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text-shadow: 0 0 8px rgba(34, 211, 238, 0.5);
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}
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.glow-text-fuchsia {
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text-shadow: 0 0 8px rgba(217, 70, 239, 0.5);
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}
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.content-link {
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@apply text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300 transition-colors duration-200;
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}
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.section-title {
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@apply text-2xl font-bold mb-4 flex items-center gap-3 text-gray-200;
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}
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.section-title::before {
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content: '';
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display: block;
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width: 4px;
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height: 24px;
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background-color: #38bdf8; /* sky-500 */
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border-radius: 2px;
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box-shadow: 0 0 8px rgba(56, 189, 248, 0.7);
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}
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.table thead th {
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background-color: rgba(31, 41, 55, 0.5);
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color: #d1d5db;
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}
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.table tbody tr {
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border-bottom-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
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}
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.table tbody tr:hover {
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background-color: rgba(55, 65, 81, 0.5);
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="min-h-screen p-4 sm:p-6 lg:p-8">
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<header class="sticky top-0 z-50 py-3 mb-8 glass-card rounded-2xl">
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<div class="container mx-auto flex justify-between items-center px-4">
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<div class="text-xl font-bold text-gray-200">
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价小前投研 <span class="text-sm font-normal text-gray-400">| 北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent</span>
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</div>
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<div class="text-xs text-gray-500 text-right">
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本报告为AI合成数据,投资需谨慎。<br>数据更新时间:2025-12-02
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</div>
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</div>
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</header>
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<main class="container mx-auto">
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<section class="text-center mb-16">
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<h1 class="text-5xl md:text-7xl font-extrabold tracking-tight mb-4 bg-clip-text text-transparent bg-gradient-to-br from-gray-200 via-sky-300 to-green-300">
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钽电容 (Tantalum Capacitor)
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</h1>
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<p class="text-lg md:text-xl text-gray-400 max-w-4xl mx-auto">
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深度行业洞察:由AI算力革命驱动的,一场确定性需求与寡头供给共振的“量价齐升”超级景气周期。
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</p>
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</section>
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<!-- Bento Grid Layout -->
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<section class="mb-16">
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<!-- Core Insight -->
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<div class="bento-item grid-col-span-4 grid-row-span-2 glass-card p-6">
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<h2 class="section-title">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<p class="text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">
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钽电容概念的核心逻辑是 <strong class="text-cyan-400 glow-text-cyan">AI算力爆发式增长</strong> 带来的 <strong class="text-green-400">确定性需求增量</strong>,与全球 <strong class="text-fuchsia-400 glow-text-fuchsia">高度集中的寡头供给格局</strong> 之间的尖锐矛盾,共同引爆了本轮 <strong class="text-amber-400">“量价齐升”</strong> 的超级景气周期。当前,概念正从市场预期阶段快速进入基本面兑现阶段,其未来潜力取决于AI技术迭代的速度、国产替代的进程以及上游原材料的供应安全。
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</p>
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<div class="divider before:bg-white/10 after:bg-white/10"></div>
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3 text-gray-200">核心驱动力解析</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-gray-400 text-sm">
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<li class="flex items-start gap-3">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 text-sky-400 flex-shrink-0 mt-0.5" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M9 3v2m6-2v2M9 19v2m6-2v2M5 9H3m2 6H3m18-6h-2m2 6h-2M12 6V3m0 18v-3M5.636 5.636l-1.414-1.414M19.778 19.778l-1.414-1.414M19.778 5.636l-1.414 1.414M5.636 19.778l-1.414-1.414M15 12a3 3 0 11-6 0 3 3 0 016 0z" /></svg>
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<div><strong class="text-gray-300">技术需求驱动:</strong> AI服务器中GPU/CPU功耗激增,钽电容凭借其最低ESR和最高单位体积电容值,成为芯片旁平滑电压波动的最优解,是难以替代的刚性需求。</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start gap-3">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 text-green-400 flex-shrink-0 mt-0.5" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M7 11l5-5m0 0l5 5m-5-5v12" /></svg>
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<div><strong class="text-gray-300">用量倍数级增长:</strong> AI硬件迭代带来用量指数级增长,单台 <strong class="text-green-300">GB300 NVL72机柜用量约2.1万颗</strong>,下一代Rubin架构将进一步提升。</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start gap-3">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 text-fuchsia-400 flex-shrink-0 mt-0.5" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 15v2m-6 4h12a2 2 0 002-2v-6a2 2 0 00-2-2H6a2 2 0 00-2 2v6a2 2 0 002 2zm10-10V7a4 4 0 00-8 0v4h8z" /></svg>
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<div><strong class="text-gray-300">供给端刚性:</strong> 市场寡头垄断(四大家占>80%),龙头厂商有极强定价权,且日系厂商扩产保守,短期供给弹性极小,加剧供需失衡。</div>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<!-- Market Dynamics -->
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<div class="bento-item grid-col-span-2 glass-card p-6">
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<h2 class="section-title">市场动态</h2>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">价格上涨 (涨价)</p>
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<p class="text-2xl font-bold text-red-400">+20% ~ 30%</p>
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<p class="text-xs text-gray-500">国巨/KEMET, 松下等龙头年内多次提价</p>
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</div>
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<div class="divider before:bg-white/10 after:bg-white/10 my-2"></div>
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<div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">供应紧张 (交期)</p>
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<p class="text-2xl font-bold text-amber-400">22 ~ 40 周</p>
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<p class="text-xs text-gray-500">AVX, Vishay, Panasonic交期普遍延长</p>
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</div>
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<div class="divider before:bg-white/10 after:bg-white/10 my-2"></div>
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<div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">核心驱动</p>
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<p class="text-xl font-bold text-sky-400">AI服务器 & eSSD</p>
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<p class="text-xs text-gray-500">Nvidia GB200/GB300方案需求远超预期</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Market Share -->
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<div class="bento-item grid-col-span-2 glass-card p-6">
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<h2 class="section-title">全球市场格局</h2>
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<div id="market-share-chart" class="w-full h-64"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Key Data Points -->
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<div class="bento-item grid-col-span-3 glass-card p-6">
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<h2 class="section-title">关键数据速览</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-2 gap-4 text-center">
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<div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">全球市场规模 (2024)</p>
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<p class="text-2xl font-bold text-green-400">~24.3 亿美元</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">AI服务器增量 (2026 est.)</p>
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<p class="text-2xl font-bold text-green-400">+5 亿美元</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">GB300 NVL72 单机柜用量</p>
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<p class="text-2xl font-bold text-sky-400">~21,000 颗</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">数据中心用单价</p>
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<p class="text-2xl font-bold text-amber-400">2.5-4.0 元/颗</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Key Players -->
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<div class="bento-item grid-col-span-3 glass-card p-6">
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<h2 class="section-title">产业链核心玩家</h2>
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<div class="space-y-3 text-sm">
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<p><strong class="font-semibold text-fuchsia-400">上游材料 (钽粉/丝):</strong> <strong class="text-gray-200">东方钽业</strong> (全球三强, 国内龙头), 日矿金属, Cabot</p>
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<p><strong class="font-semibold text-cyan-400">中游制造 (海外寡头):</strong> <strong class="text-gray-200">国巨(KEMET)</strong>, AVX, Vishay, 松下</p>
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<p><strong class="font-semibold text-green-400">中游制造 (国内追赶):</strong> <strong class="text-gray-200">顺络电子</strong> (最具潜力), 宏达电子, 振华科技</p>
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<p><strong class="font-semibold text-amber-400">核心下游 (增量):</strong> <strong class="text-gray-200">AI服务器 (Nvidia)</strong>, eSSD (企业级固态硬盘)</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Detailed Insight -->
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<section class="mb-16 space-y-8">
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<div class="glass-card p-8">
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<h2 class="section-title">关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h2>
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<div class="grid lg:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg mb-3 text-sky-300">近期催化剂 (未来3-6个月)</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-400">
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<li><strong class="text-gray-300">价格持续上涨与传导:</strong> 关注AVX、Vishay是否跟进第三轮提价,以及价格向上传导至钽粉/丝环节。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-gray-300">云厂商订单验证:</strong> Nvidia等巨头财报对供应链的展望和订单指引将是关键验证。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-gray-300">国内厂商客户突破:</strong> 关注顺络、宏达等公司在AI服务器领域的客户认证进展或订单披露。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg mb-3 text-green-300">长期发展路径</h3>
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<ol class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-400">
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<li><strong class="text-gray-300">阶段一 (当前): 供需失衡期</strong> - 特征是缺货、涨价、交期延长。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-gray-300">阶段二: 产能扩张与国产替代期</strong> - 国内厂商逐步切入供应链,抢占份额。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-gray-300">阶段三: 技术迭代与格局稳定期</strong> - 具备高端产品研发能力的厂商将脱颖而出,享有技术溢价。</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-8">
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<h2 class="section-title">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div class="border-l-2 border-amber-500 pl-4">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-amber-400">技术风险</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">MLCC在中低端领域的替代风险依然存在;未来AI芯片供电方案若发生颠覆性变化可能减少需求。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="border-l-2 border-red-500 pl-4">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-red-400">商业化风险</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">AI需求若不及预期,将严重打击全产业链逻辑;上游钽矿石受地缘政治影响,成本压力可能侵蚀利润。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="border-l-2 border-purple-500 pl-4">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-purple-400">竞争与政策风险</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">高利润可能吸引新玩家进入,未来或导致供过于求;上游钽资源高度集中,供应受地缘政治影响。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Supporting Evidence -->
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<section class="mb-16" x-data="{ tab: 'news' }">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-8 text-center text-gray-200">核心数据源支撑</h2>
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<div class="flex justify-center mb-6 border-b border-white/10">
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<button @click="tab = 'news'" :class="{'border-sky-400 text-sky-400': tab === 'news', 'border-transparent text-gray-400 hover:text-gray-200': tab !== 'news'}" class="px-6 py-3 font-medium border-b-2 transition-all">新闻数据</button>
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<button @click="tab = 'roadshow'" :class="{'border-sky-400 text-sky-400': tab === 'roadshow', 'border-transparent text-gray-400 hover:text-gray-200': tab !== 'roadshow'}" class="px-6 py-3 font-medium border-b-2 transition-all">路演纪要</button>
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<button @click="tab = 'research'" :class="{'border-sky-400 text-sky-400': tab === 'research', 'border-transparent text-gray-400 hover:text-gray-200': tab !== 'research'}" class="px-6 py-3 font-medium border-b-2 transition-all">研报精粹</button>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-8 min-h-[400px]">
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<div x-show="tab === 'news'" x-transition>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-gray-200">新闻数据摘要</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3 list-disc list-inside text-gray-400">
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<li><strong>市场动态:</strong>国巨集团/KEMET于10月22日宣布自11月1日起上调聚合物钽电容价格,涨幅 <strong class="text-amber-300">20%-30%</strong>,为年内第二波调涨,范围扩大至直销客户。松下跟进涨价30%,2026年2月1日生效。</li>
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<li><strong>供应紧张:</strong>AI需求旺盛导致供不应求,行业处于满产状态。AVX交期从26周延长至 <strong class="text-red-400">38周</strong>,松下、Vishay交期同样呈现增长趋势。</li>
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<li><strong>需求驱动:</strong>AI服务器是核心驱动力,钽电容用于GPU/CPU旁提供直流支撑。英伟达GB200单计算板价值量估算为 <strong class="text-green-300">672元</strong>,一台GB300 NVL72机柜对应约 <strong class="text-green-300">2.1万颗</strong> 钽电容。</li>
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<li><strong>市场规模:</strong>QYResearch数据显示2024年全球市场规模约 <strong class="text-cyan-300">24.32亿美元</strong>。仅AI服务器就能拉动约 <strong class="text-cyan-300">21%</strong> 的行业增速。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>国内厂商:</strong>顺络电子布局钽电容近20年,在高端聚合物上进展快,目标是三年内冲击全球前列。宏达电子、风华高科等被重点关注。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div x-show="tab === 'roadshow'" x-transition>
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-gray-200">路演纪要精粹</h3>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-3 list-disc list-inside text-gray-400">
|
||
<li><strong>东方钽业 (2025-10-28):</strong> 10万台GB300机柜将新增约210吨钽粉需求,占电容器级总需求的40%以上。预测涨价将于 <strong class="text-amber-300">2026 H1</strong> 传导至上游钽粉/丝环节。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>板块分析 (2025-08-19):</strong> AI服务器单机用量1700颗,单价2.5-4元,全球市场千亿级。海外四大家占80%,国产替代迫切。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>产业链跟踪 (2025-11-05):</strong> GB300单机用量预计达 <strong class="text-green-300">5,000颗</strong>,后续“入丙”系列继续提升。上游电子级钽粉格局为日矿金属(40%)、Cabot(30%)、东方产业(20%)。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>火炬电子 (2025-12-01):</strong> 2025年前三季度钽电容收入5,090.67万元,同比+46.69%,但占自产元器件收入仅 <strong class="text-red-400">5.21%</strong>。绝对规模仍小,市场存在概念错配风险。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div x-show="tab === 'research'" x-transition>
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-gray-200">研报核心观点</h3>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-3 list-disc list-inside text-gray-400">
|
||
<li><strong>产业链定位:</strong>东方钽业是全球钽电容关键原材料(电容器级钽粉/钽丝)核心供应商,电容器用钽丝全球市占率 <strong class="text-cyan-300">40%以上</strong>。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>产品特性:</strong>钽电容器性质卓越,具有长寿命、高容量、体积小、可靠性高等特点,大量用于军工及高端民用电子设备。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>行业拐点:</strong>2024年Q2国巨钽电容营收同比增速由负转正,被视为行业需求拐点。下游电子需求持续回暖,拉动上游材料出货。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>上游资源:</strong>我国钽资源对外依存度高,刚果(金)局势是潜在风险点。东方钽业通过在低价时囤积原材料,有望在价格上行周期中受益。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Related Stocks -->
|
||
<section class="mb-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-8 text-center text-gray-200">相关概念股梳理</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-2xl p-4">
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra w-full text-base">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th class="w-1/12">序号</th>
|
||
<th class="w-2/12">股票名称</th>
|
||
<th class="w-2/12">股票代码</th>
|
||
<th class="w-7/12">入选理由</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>1</th>
|
||
<td>东方钽业</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000962" target="_blank" class="content-link">000962.SZ</a></td>
|
||
<td>全球钽粉/钽丝三强之一,国内绝对龙头。主导产品电容器级钽粉国际市占率25%以上、钽丝国际市占率35%以上,是产业链最纯粹的“卖铲人”。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>2</th>
|
||
<td>宏达电子</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300726" target="_blank" class="content-link">300726.SZ</a></td>
|
||
<td>以高可靠性钽电容起家,技术功底扎实,在军工领域是绝对主力。受益于民用市场(AI服务器)爆发,有望打开第二增长空间。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>3</th>
|
||
<td>顺络电子</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002138" target="_blank" class="content-link">002138.SZ</a></td>
|
||
<td>布局钽电容近20年,在高端聚合物上进展快,有望成为国产替代先锋。战略目标“再造一个顺络”,具备大客户服务经验和渠道优势。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>4</th>
|
||
<td>振华科技</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000733" target="_blank" class="content-link">000733.SZ</a></td>
|
||
<td>旗下新云电子是国际钽电解电容器生产品种最全、配套规格最多的专业制造企业之一,军工背景深厚。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>5</th>
|
||
<td>火炬电子</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603678" target="_blank" class="content-link">603678.SH</a></td>
|
||
<td>业务结构包含MLCC、钽电容、新材料。已完成钽电容生产线军工质量管理体系认证。但需注意当前钽电容业务占比较小。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>6</th>
|
||
<td>风华高科</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000636" target="_blank" class="content-link">000636.SZ</a></td>
|
||
<td>国内被动元件“链主”企业,产品线齐全。作为行业龙头,有望受益于整体行业景气度提升和国产替代进程。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<footer class="text-center p-6 text-xs text-gray-600">
|
||
<p>北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent:“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现。</p>
|
||
<p>免责声明:本报告由人工智能基于公开数据自动生成,仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议,据此操作,风险自担。</p>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
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