373 lines
28 KiB
HTML
373 lines
28 KiB
HTML
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<title>AI投研深度报告：多边贸易物流</title>
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<body class="min-h-screen p-4 sm:p-8 lg:p-12">
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<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold main-title animate-float">多边贸易物流</h1>
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<p class="text-slate-400 mt-4 text-lg">AI投研深度解析：全球供应链重构下的结构性机遇</p>
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</header>
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<!-- Bento Grid Layout -->
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<!-- Insight: Core Analysis -->
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<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12 lg:col-span-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 glow-text">概念核心洞察 (Insight)</h2>
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<div class="space-y-6 text-slate-300 text-sm md:text-base">
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-violet-300 mb-2">0. 概念事件：全球经贸格局的“破”与“立”</h3>
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<p>“多边贸易物流”概念的崛起，根植于以WTO为代表的传统多边贸易体制遭受单边主义冲击的宏观背景。这已演化为影响全球供应链的长期趋势，催生了新的物流需求与模式。核心是全球贸易格局“破”与“立”的必然结果：“破”的是旧有的、以中美为两极的稳定贸易轴线；“立”的是更加多元化、区域化、碎片化的新贸易网络。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-violet-300 mb-2">1. 核心观点摘要</h3>
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<p>“多边贸易物流”概念正处于由宏观格局重塑驱动的<strong class="text-white">结构性高增长阶段</strong>。其核心驱动力已从传统B2B贸易，转向<strong class="text-white">跨境电商爆发式增长</strong>和<strong class="text-white">中国优势产业链全球化</strong>两大新引擎。未来潜力在于那些能够构建全球化网络、掌握稀缺运力资产、并能提供端到端解决方案的物流企业。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-violet-300 mb-2">2. 核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h3>
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<p class="mb-2"><strong class="text-white">核心驱动力：</strong>从“全球化”到“新多边化”的供应链重构。本质是物流服务商应对并服务于全球贸易网络复杂化、多元化的过程。企业正从追求效率成本的“全球化”布局，转向兼顾安全、韧性的“新多边化”布局，催生了面向东南亚、墨西哥、中东、非洲等新兴市场的海量物流需求。</p>
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<p><strong class="text-white">预期差分析：</strong>市场可能低估了“重构”带来的结构性机遇。
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1 pl-4">
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<li><strong>危机即商机：</strong>市场普遍认知停留在“贸易萎缩”，而核心物流公司已将供应链重构视为<strong class="text-white">最大的增量市场</strong>。</li>
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<li><strong>新引擎认知不足：</strong>跨境电商已成驱动空运市场的绝对主力，其<strong class="text-white">“小批量、高频次、高时效”</strong>需求对物流企业全链条整合能力提出更高要求，构筑了新壁垒。</li>
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<li><strong>资产价值重估：</strong>在汽车出口等结构性赛道，滚装船等核心运力资产持续紧俏，价值需被重估。</li>
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</ul>
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</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-violet-300 mb-2">3. 关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h3>
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<p class="mb-2"><strong class="text-white">近期催化剂：</strong>美国大选及对华关税政策落地、跨境电商平台新一轮扩张、中国大型车企海外建厂计划、RCEP关税减让新阶段。</p>
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<p><strong class="text-white">长期发展路径：</strong>网络化（全球节点布局） → 数字化与平台化（端到端智能调度） → 生态化（嵌入客户全球供应链的综合方案解决者）。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- ECharts Visualization -->
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<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12 lg:col-span-4 min-h-[400px]">
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<h2 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 glow-text">核心驱动力与产业链图谱</h2>
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<div id="echarts-graph" class="w-full h-[calc(100%-2.5rem)]"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Key Players -->
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<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 glow-text">产业链核心玩家深度剖析</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-4 gap-4 text-sm">
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<div class="p-4 bg-slate-900/50 rounded-2xl border border-slate-700">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-violet-300">华贸物流 (603128)</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400 font-semibold">领导者 & 逻辑最纯粹</p>
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<p class="mt-2 text-slate-300"><strong>优势：</strong>战略最清晰，向“全球综合物流方案解决者”转型，逆势扩张的70+海外自营网点是核心壁垒。业务覆盖电商、工程、大宗商品等全场景。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-slate-900/50 rounded-2xl border border-slate-700">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-violet-300">长久物流 (603569)</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400 font-semibold">高增长弹性追赶者</p>
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<p class="mt-2 text-slate-300"><strong>优势：</strong>深度绑定汽车出海黄金赛道，自持稀缺滚装船资产建立高壁垒和盈利弹性。控股波兰物流公司，中欧班列优势独特。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-slate-900/50 rounded-2xl border border-slate-700">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-violet-300">东航物流 (601156)</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400 font-semibold">细分赛道龙头</p>
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<p class="mt-2 text-slate-300"><strong>优势：</strong>依托东航腹舱和全货机资源，在空运干线具垄断优势。深度受益于高附加值的跨境电商需求，业务贡献和增速亮眼。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-slate-900/50 rounded-2xl border border-slate-700">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-violet-300">中创物流 (603967)</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400 font-semibold">新兴市场开拓者</p>
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<p class="mt-2 text-slate-300"><strong>优势：</strong>采取“跟随大客户出海”务实战略，在印尼市场通过重资产投入已形成区域优势，模式可复制性强，计划向非洲、中东拓展。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Data Sources Tabs -->
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<div x-data="{ tab: 'news' }" class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12">
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<div role="tablist" class="tabs tabs-boxed bg-slate-900/50 mb-6">
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<a role="tab" class="tab tab-lift text-slate-300" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'news' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'news'">新闻数据</a>
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<a role="tab" class="tab tab-lift text-slate-300" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'roadshow' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'roadshow'">路演纪要</a>
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<a role="tab" class="tab tab-lift text-slate-300" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'report' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'report'">研报精粹</a>
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<a role="tab" class="tab tab-lift text-slate-300" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'rise' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'rise'">涨幅异动</a>
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</div>
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<div class="text-slate-300 text-sm space-y-4">
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<!-- News Content -->
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<div x-show="tab === 'news'">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-3 text-violet-300">新闻核心总结</h3>
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<p class="mb-4 p-4 bg-slate-900/50 rounded-xl border border-slate-700"><strong class="text-white">核心态势：</strong>以WTO为核心的多边贸易体制正面临由单边主义、保护主义（特别是美国的关税措施）引发的严重冲击，导致全球贸易动荡、壁垒增加和供应链碎片化风险加剧。</p>
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<p class="mb-4 p-4 bg-slate-900/50 rounded-xl border border-slate-700"><strong class="text-white">应对策略：</strong>中国、东盟、欧盟等多方呼吁维护多边贸易体制，同时积极推动贸易便利化、强化区域供应链韧性、重构产业链，并通过数字化和基建降低物流成本。</p>
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<p class="p-4 bg-slate-900/50 rounded-xl border border-slate-700"><strong class="text-white">直接冲击：</strong>美国“301调查”等措施已直接指向中国的物流、海事等领域，引发行业协会强烈反对，表明宏观贸易争端已演变为对具体物流环节的冲击。</p>
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</div>
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<!-- Roadshow Content -->
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<div x-show="tab === 'roadshow'" x-cloak>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-3 text-violet-300">路演核心趋势</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-3">
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<li><strong class="text-white">跨境电商是核心驱动力：</strong>以TEMU、SHEIN等平台为代表的跨境电商正在重塑全球航空货运和全程物流的需求结构，尤其是在欧美航线。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">全球供应链重构与新兴市场崛起：</strong>企业正积极布局<strong class="text-violet-300">东南亚、墨西哥、中东、非洲</strong>等新兴市场，以应对全球贸易链的区域化趋势和“产能出海”、“资源出海”的需求。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">运力资产与海外网络是关键壁垒：</strong>拥有全货机、滚装船等稀缺运力资产，以及在海外建立场站、合资公司等实体网络，成为物流企业的核心竞争力。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">地缘政治与宏观经济影响显著：</strong>红海事件、美国关税政策、全球库存周期等宏观因素直接影响国际运价、贸易流向和企业战略决策。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<!-- Report Content -->
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<div x-show="tab === 'report'" x-cloak>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-3 text-violet-300">研报宏观驱动因素</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-3">
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<li><strong class="text-white">RCEP政策与区域贸易协定：</strong>通过降低关税壁垒，推动区域内跨境电商和物流需求增长，促进多边贸易便利化。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">跨境电商平台的全球布局：</strong>“出海四小龙”（AliExpress, Temu, SHEIN, TikTok Shop）均通过全球化物流网络（如海外仓、跨境专线）实现多国商品流通，直接推动多边贸易物流需求。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">海外仓建设与全球物流基础设施：</strong>缩短配送时效，降低跨境退货成本，提升多边贸易履约效率，是关键的基础设施。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">风险提示：</strong>地缘政治摩擦（如中美关税政策）可能引发贸易壁垒和物流中断风险；新兴市场基础设施不完善可能影响物流时效。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<!-- Rise Analysis Content -->
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<div x-show="tab === 'rise'" x-cloak>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-3 text-violet-300">相关个股涨幅异动分析</h3>
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<div class="space-y-4 max-h-[400px] overflow-y-auto pr-2">
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-slate-900/50 border border-slate-700">
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<input type="radio" name="rise-accordion" checked="checked" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-md font-medium text-violet-300">远大控股 (000626) - 政策驱动型涨停</div>
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<div class="collapse-content text-xs text-slate-400">
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<p>国常会文件直接点名“物流数字基础设施”与“绿色贸易公共服务平台”，公司定增项目与政策高度匹配，叠加UCO出口资质，市场解读为“政策订单落地”，引发资金抢筹。</p>
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</div>
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||
</div>
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-slate-900/50 border border-slate-700">
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<input type="radio" name="rise-accordion" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-md font-medium text-violet-300">华鹏飞 (300350) - 行业景气度提升</div>
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<div class="collapse-content text-xs text-slate-400">
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<p>上涨主因是物流板块整体走强及7月份物流业景气指数扩张。国际贸易环境变化（如美加墨贸易多元化）和公司潜在的TIR资质优势提供了间接催化。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-slate-900/50 border border-slate-700">
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<input type="radio" name="rise-accordion" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-md font-medium text-violet-300">新宁物流 (300013) - 业务突破+重组预期</div>
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<div class="collapse-content text-xs text-slate-400">
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<p>公司承运首趟中欧班列，在国际物流领域取得突破。同时，市场对河南省属物流资产的重组整合预期成为推动股价上涨的重要因素。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-slate-900/50 border border-slate-700">
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<input type="radio" name="rise-accordion" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-md font-medium text-violet-300">上海雅仕 (603329) - 政策利好型秒板</div>
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<div class="collapse-content text-xs text-slate-400">
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<p>磷肥出口配额政策超预期，公司作为华东磷肥厂核心硫磺保供商，港口库存瞬间获得成本优势且周转加速，成为最硬催化。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock List Table -->
|
||
<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 glow-text">相关概念股列表</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra-zebra w-full text-sm">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>关联方向</th>
|
||
<th>备注</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<!-- 中日韩贸易 -->
|
||
<tr class="bg-slate-900/30"><td colspan="4" class="font-bold text-violet-400">中日韩贸易</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>万林物流</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603117" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-400">603117</a></td><td>业务相关</td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="font-bold text-white bg-indigo-900/50"><td>连云港</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601008" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-400">601008</a></td><td>业务相关</td><td>核心枢纽港</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>飞力达</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300240" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-400">300240</a></td><td>业务相关</td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="font-bold text-white bg-indigo-900/50"><td>中创物流</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603967" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-400">603967</a></td><td>业务相关</td><td>新兴市场开拓者</td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="font-bold text-white bg-indigo-900/50"><td>海程邦达</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603836" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-400">603836</a></td><td>业务相关</td><td>综合物流服务商</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>青岛港</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601298" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-400">601298</a></td><td>业务相关</td><td></td></tr>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 中俄贸易 -->
|
||
<tr class="bg-slate-900/30"><td colspan="4" class="font-bold text-violet-400">中俄/中欧贸易 (中欧班列)</td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="font-bold text-white bg-indigo-900/50"><td>长久物流</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603569" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-400">603569</a></td><td>业务相关</td><td>汽车出海核心标的</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>天顺股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002800" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-400">002800</a></td><td>业务相关</td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>中国外运</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601598" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-400">601598</a></td><td>业务相关</td><td>物流巨头</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>华贸物流</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603128" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-400">603128</a></td><td>业务相关</td><td>全球网络整合商</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>铁龙物流</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600125" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-400">600125</a></td><td>业务相关</td><td>铁路特种箱</td></tr>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 东南亚贸易 -->
|
||
<tr class="bg-slate-900/30"><td colspan="4" class="font-bold text-violet-400">东南亚贸易</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>五洲交通</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600368" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-400">600368</a></td><td>业务相关</td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>顺丰控股</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002352" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-400">002352</a></td><td>业务相关</td><td>快递龙头</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>锦江航运</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601083" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-400">601083</a></td><td>业务相关</td><td>亚洲区域航运</td></tr>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 一带一路港口 -->
|
||
<tr class="bg-slate-900/30"><td colspan="4" class="font-bold text-violet-400">一带一路港口 (基础设施)</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>招商港口</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=001872" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-400">001872</a></td><td>业务相关</td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>北部湾港</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000582" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-400">000582</a></td><td>业务相关</td><td>面向东盟</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>上港集团</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600018" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-400">600018</a></td><td>业务相关</td><td>全球最大港</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>宁波港</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601018" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-400">601018</a></td><td>业务相关</td><td></td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Footer -->
|
||
<footer class="text-center mt-12 text-xs text-slate-500">
|
||
<p>由 北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现</p>
|
||
<p>免责声明：本报告为AI合成数据，所有内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，投资需谨慎。</p>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
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|
||
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|
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var chartDom = document.getElementById('echarts-graph');
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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</html> |