356 lines
22 KiB
HTML
356 lines
22 KiB
HTML
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<title>小马智行 (Pony.ai) 概念深度投研</title>
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<div class="max-w-screen-2xl mx-auto p-4 sm:p-6 lg:p-8">
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<header class="text-center mb-12">
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<p class="text-sm text-cyan-400/80 mb-2">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 呈现</p>
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<h1 class="text-5xl md:text-7xl font-bold text-white glow-text">小马智行 (Pony.ai)</h1>
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<p class="mt-4 text-xl text-gray-400 max-w-3xl mx-auto">从技术验证到商业化落地的关键跃迁，全球Robotaxi第一股的深度解析</p>
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</header>
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<main class="space-y-8">
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<!-- Bento Grid -->
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<section class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 lg:col-span-2">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 section-title text-white">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<p class="text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">
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小马智行概念正处在从<strong class="text-cyan-400">技术验证向商业化落地的关键跃迁阶段</strong>。其核心驱动力在于<strong class="text-cyan-400">“技术降本”</strong>与<strong class="text-cyan-400">“运营扩张”</strong>形成的双轮正循环，已初步在限定区域内验证了商业模式的可行性（单位经济打平）。其未来潜力取决于能否将单点成功模式规模化复制至全球，并最终实现公司层面的整体盈利，而这也是市场当前最大的分歧与期待所在。
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</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 flex flex-col justify-center items-center">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-400 mb-2">第七代系统成本突破</h3>
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<p class="key-metric-value">↓70%</p>
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<p class="text-gray-400 mt-2 text-center">自动驾驶套件总成本较上一代大幅下降，实现100%车规级零部件，为规模化量产铺平道路。</p>
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</div>
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</section>
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<section class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-4 gap-6">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 lg:col-span-2">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 section-title text-white">关键事件时间轴</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-4">
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<div class="w-4 h-4 rounded-full bg-cyan-500 mt-1.5 mr-4 flex-shrink-0 border-2 border-cyan-300"></div>
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<div><strong>2024.11.27 (美股上市):</strong> 成功登陆纳斯达克，募资4.52亿美元，成为全球“Robotaxi第一股”。</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<div class="w-4 h-4 rounded-full bg-cyan-500 mt-1.5 mr-4 flex-shrink-0"></div>
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<div><strong>2025.04.23 (技术迭代):</strong> 发布第七代自动驾驶系统“昆仑”，套件成本剧降70%。</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<div class="w-4 h-4 rounded-full bg-cyan-500 mt-1.5 mr-4 flex-shrink-0"></div>
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<div><strong>2025.06.25 (市场认可):</strong> 被纳入纳斯达克中国金龙指数，提升资本市场权重。</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<div class="w-4 h-4 rounded-full bg-cyan-500 mt-1.5 mr-4 flex-shrink-0"></div>
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<div><strong>2025.12.03 (商业化突破):</strong> 官方及高盛确认，在广州实现单位经济(UE)盈亏平衡，是商业化的关键拐点。</div>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 lg:col-span-2" id="financials-container">
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<div id="financialsChart" style="width: 100%; height: 300px;"></div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 核心逻辑与市场认知 -->
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<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 section-title text-white">核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div>
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-cyan-400 mb-2">1. 技术驱动的成本剧降</h4>
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<p class="text-sm leading-relaxed">商业化的首要前提。通过采用低成本固态激光雷达和成熟车规级芯片，第七代方案整车成本降至27-30万元人民币级别，使Robotaxi资产折旧成本首次接近传统网约车范畴。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-cyan-400 mb-2">2. 数据飞轮驱动的运营效率</h4>
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<p class="text-sm leading-relaxed">基于PonyWorld世界模型，通过海量仿真与真实路测数据闭环，持续优化算法。带来事故率降低16倍、远程接管员比例低于1:20、单车日均订单超15单等关键指标改善。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-cyan-400 mb-2">3. 政策绿灯与先发优势</h4>
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<p class="text-sm leading-relaxed">唯一覆盖北上广深四大一线城市并获无人驾驶出行服务许可的公司。牌照稀缺性构筑强大壁垒，使其能率先在核心高价值区域开展收费运营，积累宝贵商业化数据。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="mt-6 pt-6 border-t border-white/10">
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-amber-400 mb-3">关键预期差分析</h4>
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<ul class="space-y-2 list-disc list-inside text-sm">
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<li><strong class="text-amber-300">盈利时间表预期差:</strong> 市场可能因“单位经济打平”而过度乐观，低估了实现公司层面整体盈利的难度。路演分析师直指“2028年整体盈利可能性极低”，与研报普遍预测存在矛盾。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-amber-300">技术完美度预期差:</strong> “全无人”驾驶尚未达100%自主决策，路测显示部分路段仍依赖人工远程干预，这在规模化扩张中是潜在的隐形成本和人力瓶颈。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-amber-300">业务重心预期差:</strong> 市场焦点在Robotaxi，但2024年财报显示Robotruck业务收入(4040万美元)远高于Robotaxi(730万美元)，是现阶段营收支柱，其发展受政策制约。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 催化剂与产业链 -->
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<section class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 section-title text-white">关键催化剂与未来路径</h2>
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-purple-400 mb-2">近期催化剂 (3-6个月)</h4>
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<ul class="space-y-2 list-disc list-inside text-sm mb-6">
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<li><strong>千台车队部署:</strong> 2025年底完成千台车队部署，是规模化运营能力和收入增长的关键验证。</li>
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<li><strong>香港上市进展:</strong> 已获证监会备案，港交所挂牌将引入新资金并可能引发估值重估。</li>
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<li><strong>新城市商业化:</strong> 在北京、深圳等城市复制广州的“单位经济盈利”模式。</li>
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<li><strong>合作车型量产:</strong> 与丰田、北汽合作的量产车型顺利下线和部署。</li>
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</ul>
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-purple-400 mb-2">长期发展路径</h4>
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<ul class="space-y-2 list-disc list-inside text-sm">
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<li><strong>规模扩张期 (2025-27):</strong> 扩大车队规模，覆盖更多核心城市，摊薄成本。</li>
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<li><strong>盈利实现期 (2028-29):</strong> 达到数万辆车队规模临界点，实现公司整体盈利。</li>
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<li><strong>平台化转型期 (长期):</strong> 从重资产运营商向轻资产的技术服务商转型，输出算法并收取授权费。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 section-title text-white">产业链图谱</h2>
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<div class="space-y-4 text-sm">
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<div>
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<h5 class="font-semibold text-gray-400 mb-2">上游：核心软硬件供应商</h5>
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<div class="flex flex-wrap gap-2">
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<span class="tag-pill tag-blue">芯片: 英伟达/地平线</span>
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<span class="tag-pill tag-blue">传感器: 禾赛/速腾</span>
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<span class="tag-pill tag-blue">高精地图: 四维图新</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h5 class="font-semibold text-gray-400 mb-2">中游：自动驾驶解决方案与整车制造</h5>
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<div class="flex flex-wrap gap-2">
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<span class="tag-pill tag-green">算法集成: 小马智行</span>
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<span class="tag-pill tag-green">整车合作: 广汽/北汽/丰田</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h5 class="font-semibold text-gray-400 mb-2">下游：运营服务与生态合作</h5>
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<div class="flex flex-wrap gap-2">
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<span class="tag-pill tag-purple">出行服务: 锦江在线/Uber</span>
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<span class="tag-pill tag-purple">物流服务: 中国外运</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h5 class="font-semibold text-gray-400 mb-2">资本支持方</h5>
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<div class="flex flex-wrap gap-2">
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<span class="tag-pill tag-amber">昆仑万维</span>
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<span class="tag-pill tag-amber">广汽资本</span>
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<span class="tag-pill tag-amber">招商局资本</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 风险挑战 -->
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<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 section-title text-white border-l-red-500" style="background: linear-gradient(90deg, rgba(255, 0, 0, 0.2) 0%, rgba(255, 0, 0, 0) 100%);">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6 text-sm">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-bold text-red-400 mb-2">技术风险</h4>
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<p>长尾问题（Corner Cases）处理仍是挑战，对远程人工干预的依赖限制了效率。技术路线与特斯拉等纯视觉方案的竞争结果尚存变数。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-bold text-red-400 mb-2">商业化风险</h4>
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<p>最大的风险在于盈利能力。高昂的研发、管理、保险费用是盈利路上的巨大障碍。市场接受度和规模化运维瓶颈也是严峻挑战。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-bold text-red-400 mb-2">政策与竞争风险</h4>
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<p>Robotruck跨区域牌照审批缓慢，全球化扩张面临各国法规和数据安全障碍。国内外竞争激烈，技术、资本、运营任何一环都不能掉队。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 股票数据 -->
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<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 section-title text-white">相关产业链公司梳理</h2>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="table w-full custom-table">
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<thead>
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<tr>
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<th>股票名称</th>
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<th>股票代码</th>
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<th>关联原因</th>
|
||
<th>关联类型</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>广汽集团</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601238" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">601238</a></td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">最深度的战略绑定者，既是投资者（投资2700万美元），又是核心整车合作伙伴，共同成立合资公司。</td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag-pill tag-green">参股 & 运营</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>北汽蓝谷</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600733" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">600733</a></td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">重要的整车研发伙伴，合作研发全无人Robotaxi车型，是小马智行实现车型平台化、降本的关键一环。</td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag-pill tag-green">整车研发</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>昆仑万维</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300418" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">300418</a></td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">2019年投资小马智行，出资5000万美元，占融资后股权3%。</td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag-pill tag-amber">参股</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>四维图新</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002405" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">002405</a></td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">关键数据供应商，提供地图数据及相关支持，保障其现阶段安全运营。</td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag-pill tag-blue">地图数据</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>华阳集团</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002906" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">002906</a></td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">公司车载摄像头产品与小马智行有交流，是潜在的上游核心零部件供应商。</td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag-pill tag-blue">产品供应</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>锦江在线</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600650" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">600650</a></td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">下属锦江出租与小马智行在上海指定区域开展无人出租车示范运营活动。</td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag-pill tag-purple">运营</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>中国外运</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601598" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">601598</a></td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">与小马智行合资成立青雅物流，在Robotruck领域进行合作。</td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag-pill tag-purple">运营</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>招商轮船</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601872" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">601872</a></td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">控股的招商局资本参与小马智行A+轮融资。</td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag-pill tag-amber">参股</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<footer class="text-center text-xs text-gray-500 mt-12 border-t border-white/10 pt-6">
|
||
<p>北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现</p>
|
||
<p>本报告基于公开数据由AI合成，不构成任何投资建议，投资需谨慎。</p>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html> |