546 lines
36 KiB
HTML
546 lines
36 KiB
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<title>庭院割草机器人 - 深度行业研究报告 | 价小前投研</title>
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center py-8">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold title-glow mb-4 tracking-wider">庭院割草机器人</h1>
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<p class="text-xl text-gray-400 font-light">深度行业研究报告</p>
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<div class="mt-4 text-xs text-gray-500">
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由 北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent:“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现
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</div>
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</header>
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<!-- Bento Grid Layout -->
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<main class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-4 gap-6">
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<!-- Insight: Main Analysis -->
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<section class="glass-card col-span-1 md:col-span-4 lg:col-span-3 row-span-2 p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-cyan-300">概念洞察 (Concept Insight)</h2>
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<div class="space-y-6 text-gray-300 prose prose-invert max-w-none prose-p:text-gray-300 prose-li:text-gray-300">
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-white">0. 概念事件</h3>
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<p>庭院割草机器人概念的爆发并非单一事件驱动,而是一系列技术、市场与竞争格局演变共同作用的结果。其发展脉络可清晰地梳理为一条由技术突破引领的产业升级时间线:</p>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2">
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-400">奠基期 (1995-2020):</strong> 传统龙头富世华(Husqvarna)主导的“埋线式”产品时代,渗透率增长缓慢。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-400">技术奇点 (2021年):</strong> 九号公司率先将RTK技术引入,发布全球首款“无边界”产品,解决了用户核心痛点,标志着行业进入新纪元。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-400">市场验证期 (2022-2023年):</strong> 中国品牌相继推出无边界产品,2023年被称为“无边界割草机器人元年”。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-400">爆发元年 (2024年):</strong> 无边界产品迎来量产元年,行业出货量预计达30-40万台,均价下探至1000欧元以下。IDC数据显示,2025年H1全球出货量同比暴增327.2%,无边界产品占比从35%提升至65%。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-400">地缘博弈催化 (2025年10-11月):</strong> 欧盟对中国产割草机器人发起反倾销调查,侧面印证了中国品牌的技术与市场竞争力,引爆市场关注。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-white">1. 核心观点摘要</h3>
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<p>庭院割草机器人正处在一个由“无边界”技术革命引爆的<strong>“S型增长曲线”陡峭爬升期</strong>,类似于2016年前后的扫地机器人。其核心驱动力是<strong>“技术平权+经济性替代”</strong>双轮驱动,即RTK+视觉等智能化方案解决了用户核心痛点,同时高昂的人工成本使得机器人具备了<strong>1-2年</strong>回本的经济吸引力。当前市场正从欧洲存量市场的“升级替代”阶段,迈向广阔的美国增量市场的“从0到1”开拓阶段,远期全球市场空间具备<strong>5-10倍</strong>的增长潜力。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-white">2. 核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h3>
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<p><strong>核心驱动力:</strong> 技术突破是根本引擎(无边界导航技术成熟与成本下行);经济性是商业化基石(1-2年回本周期);文化刚需是市场基础(欧美庞大的草坪维护需求)。</p>
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<p><strong>市场热度与情绪:</strong> 当前市场关注度极高,情绪整体高度乐观,体现于研报密集发布、路演信息饱满、新闻舆情正向。</p>
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<p><strong>预期差分析:</strong></p>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2">
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<li><strong>美国市场开拓难度被低估:</strong> 存在草坪面积大、渠道集中、消费者认知存疑三大拦路虎,突破非一蹴而就。</li>
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<li><strong>“售后服务”是隐形成本和核心壁垒:</strong> 高达30%的售后比例意味着线下渠道的售后维修能力是品牌立足的关键,市场可能过于关注线上销量。</li>
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<li><strong>价格战的双刃剑效应:</strong> 过度价格战可能压缩利润,未来行业将考验品牌在功能创新、算法优化和售后服务上的综合“价值战”能力。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-white">3. 关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h3>
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<p><strong>近期催化剂 (3-6个月):</strong> 欧盟反倾销初裁结果;美国市场渠道突破(如科沃斯与Home Depot合作);2026年新品技术迭代(边缘割草、视觉避障升级)。</p>
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<p><strong>长期发展路径 (对标扫地机):</strong></p>
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<ol class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-2">
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<li><strong>技术红利期 (2021-2026E):</strong> “无边界”对“有边界”的快速替代,先发优势企业享受高增长高毛利。</li>
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<li><strong>价格下探与市场普及期 (2026-2028E):</strong> 高性价比机型放量,推动渗透率快速提升,尤其在美国市场。</li>
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<li><strong>功能平台化与生态构建期 (2028E以后):</strong> 从单一割草演变为集扫雪、吹叶、浇水、安防于一体的“庭院智能管家平台”。</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-white">4. 产业链与核心公司深度剖析</h3>
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<p><strong>产业链图谱:</strong> 上游(导航模组、芯片、三电系统)、中游(品牌/制造商,分为机器人基因、传统OPE、跨界玩家)、下游(线上线下渠道,线下为王)。</p>
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<p><strong>核心玩家对比:</strong></p>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2">
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<li><strong>领导者 - 九号公司:</strong> 无边界赛道开创者与绝对龙头,逻辑最纯粹,技术、渠道、盈利模式已验证。</li>
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<li><strong>奋力追赶者 - 科沃斯:</strong> 凭借扫地机领域积累快速切入,技术路线迭代迅速,美国市场突破是关键。</li>
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<li><strong>技术差异化者 - 追觅科技:</strong> 坚持3D激光雷达路线,成本下降后性价比凸显,市场认可度高。</li>
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<li><strong>Challenged Incumbent - 富世华:</strong> 传统巨头,渠道网络是最大优势,技术反应迟缓,正奋力反击。</li>
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<li><strong>稀缺代工标的 - 腾亚精工:</strong> ODM厂商,受益于行业整体爆发,是纯粹的“卖水者”。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-white">5. 潜在风险与挑战</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2">
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<li><strong>技术风险:</strong> 纯视觉方案稳定性、边缘处理完美方案仍是挑战。</li>
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<li><strong>商业化风险:</strong> 过度价格战、高昂的渠道与售后成本(30%售后率)。</li>
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<li><strong>政策与竞争风险:</strong> 欧盟反倾销调查结果是最大不确定性;传统巨头的反击不容小觑。</li>
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<li><strong>信息交叉验证风险:</strong> 各信源对市场规模和销量数据存在差异,需审慎看待单一数据源。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-white">6. 综合结论与投资启示</h3>
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<p>赛道已越过主题炒作,进入基本面爆发期。行业正处渗透率跃迁的黄金窗口,龙头企业已展现清晰盈利能力。长期趋势不可逆转。</p>
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<p><strong>最具投资价值环节:</strong> 1. 具备核心技术、全球渠道、已验证盈利模式的<strong>品牌龙头</strong>(如九号公司)。 2. 具备技术和成本优势的<strong>上游核心零部件供应商</strong>(如禾赛科技、广和通)。</p>
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<p><strong>需重点跟踪的关键指标:</strong> 无边界产品渗透率、美国市场销量及渠道进展、欧盟反倾销调查裁决税率、头部品牌利润率变化、售后率和退货率。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Key Data Points -->
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<aside class="glass-card col-span-1 md:col-span-4 lg:col-span-1 p-6 md:p-8 flex flex-col">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-purple-300">关键数据 (Key Metrics)</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-2 gap-4 flex-grow">
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<div class="bg-white/5 p-4 rounded-xl text-center flex flex-col justify-center">
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<p class="text-3xl font-bold text-cyan-400">+327.2%</p>
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<p class="text-xs text-gray-400 mt-1">2025 H1 全球出货量同比增速</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-white/5 p-4 rounded-xl text-center flex flex-col justify-center">
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<p class="text-3xl font-bold text-cyan-400">1-2 年</p>
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<p class="text-xs text-gray-400 mt-1">VS 人工割草回本周期</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-white/5 p-4 rounded-xl text-center flex flex-col justify-center">
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<p class="text-3xl font-bold text-cyan-400">5-10 倍</p>
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<p class="text-xs text-gray-400 mt-1">远期市场增长潜力</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-white/5 p-4 rounded-xl text-center flex flex-col justify-center">
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<p class="text-3xl font-bold text-red-400">30%</p>
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<p class="text-xs text-gray-400 mt-1">高售后服务率 (隐形成本)</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-white/5 p-4 rounded-xl text-center flex flex-col justify-center">
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<p class="text-3xl font-bold text-purple-400">70-80%</p>
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<p class="text-xs text-gray-400 mt-1">线下渠道销售占比</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-white/5 p-4 rounded-xl text-center flex flex-col justify-center">
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<p class="text-3xl font-bold text-purple-400">< 5%</p>
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<p class="text-xs text-gray-400 mt-1">美国市场当前渗透率</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</aside>
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<!-- ECharts: Market Analysis -->
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<section class="glass-card col-span-1 md:col-span-4 p-6 md:p-8" x-data="{}" x-init="initCharts()">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-pink-300">市场分析 (Market Analysis)</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div class="h-80" id="marketSizeChart"></div>
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<div class="h-80" id="penetrationChart"></div>
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<div class="h-80" id="noBoundaryChart"></div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Technology & Competition -->
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<section class="glass-card col-span-1 md:col-span-4 p-6 md:p-8" x-data="{ tab: 'tech' }">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-teal-300">技术与竞争 (Technology & Competition)</h2>
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<div class="tabs tabs-boxed bg-white/5 mb-6">
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<a class="tab flex-1" :class="{'tab-active !bg-cyan-600 !text-white': tab === 'tech'}" @click.prevent="tab = 'tech'">技术演进</a>
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<a class="tab flex-1" :class="{'tab-active !bg-purple-600 !text-white': tab === 'competition'}" @click.prevent="tab = 'competition'">竞争格局</a>
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<a class="tab flex-1" :class="{'tab-active !bg-pink-600 !text-white': tab === 'policy'}" @click.prevent="tab = 'policy'">欧盟反倾销</a>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'tech'" class="prose prose-invert max-w-none prose-p:text-gray-300 prose-li:text-gray-300">
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<h4>从“有边界”到“无边界”的技术革命</h4>
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<p>行业的核心变革在于摆脱物理边界束缚,实现智能化路径规划。</p>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>埋线式阶段 (2021前):</strong> 需预埋物理电线作为边界,安装繁琐(成本$250-$300),算法多为随机碰撞,效率低下。</li>
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<li><strong>无边界阶段 (2021后):</strong> 通过先进的定位与感知技术,实现虚拟边界划定和智能路径规划。
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<ul class="mt-2">
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<li><strong>RTK + 视觉 (主流方案):</strong> 结合卫星差分定位与视觉传感器,实现厘米级精准定位和高效避障,成本优势明显,被九号等头部厂商采用并验证为最优解。</li>
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<li><strong>3D激光雷达 (LiDAR):</strong> 定位精度高,抗干扰能力强,但成本曾是主要瓶颈。随着禾赛科技等推动成本下降,正加速渗透。追觅是代表厂商。</li>
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<li><strong>UWB / 纯视觉:</strong> 早期探索方案,UWB适用于小面积场景,纯视觉对算法要求极高,在复杂环境下稳定性仍是挑战。</li>
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</ul>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'competition'" class="prose prose-invert max-w-none prose-p:text-gray-300 prose-li:text-gray-300">
|
||
<h4>三股势力重构市场格局</h4>
|
||
<p>无边界技术浪潮下,市场由传统双寡头垄断转向多元化竞争。</p>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table table-sm">
|
||
<thead class="text-white/80">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>玩家类型</th>
|
||
<th>代表公司</th>
|
||
<th>核心优势</th>
|
||
<th>挑战</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>机器人基因企业</strong></td>
|
||
<td>九号公司, 科沃斯, 追觅, 石头科技</td>
|
||
<td>技术迭代快,产品定义能力强,算法领先</td>
|
||
<td>线下渠道和品牌认知需时间积累</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>传统OPE企业</strong></td>
|
||
<td>富世华, 宝时得, 格力博, 大叶股份</td>
|
||
<td>品牌历史悠久,线下渠道网络深厚</td>
|
||
<td>智能化转型慢,产品创新相对滞后</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>跨界/初创企业</strong></td>
|
||
<td>安克创新, 松灵机器人, 优必选</td>
|
||
<td>利用技术迁移或流量运营优势,高性价比切入</td>
|
||
<td>供应链、售后体系、品牌力是短板</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div x-show="tab === 'policy'" class="prose prose-invert max-w-none prose-p:text-gray-300 prose-li:text-gray-300">
|
||
<h4>欧盟反倾销调查:挑战与机遇并存</h4>
|
||
<p>2025年11月19日,欧盟应富世华申请,正式对中国产割草机器人发起反倾销调查。</p>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>根本原因:</strong> 中国品牌凭借技术和性价比优势,大幅侵蚀了传统龙头在家用市场的份额。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>调查影响:</strong>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>短期内,厂商可能通过抢抓窗口期出货、加速海外产能布局(如九号、大叶股份)来应对。</li>
|
||
<li>长期看,若加征关税,可能导致行业洗牌,淘汰掉依赖低价竞争的小厂,利好产品力强、具备全球供应链能力的龙头企业。</li>
|
||
<li>中高端定位的品牌(如九号)受影响可能相对有限,调查或主要针对低价倾销产品。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li><strong>关键节点:</strong> 初裁结果预计在2026年第二季度作出,将是影响行业格局的重要事件。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Associated Stocks -->
|
||
<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-lime-300">相关概念股 (Associated Stocks)</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<thead class="text-base text-gray-300">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑</th>
|
||
<th>信源</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>九号公司</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=689009" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">689009</a></td>
|
||
<td>无边界割草机器人开创者与龙头,技术、渠道、盈利模式已验证。2024年割草机器人收入8.61亿元。</td>
|
||
<td>年报</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>科沃斯</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603486" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">603486</a></td>
|
||
<td>奋力追赶者,技术迭代迅速。2024年海外割草机器人收入同比增长186.7%。</td>
|
||
<td>公告</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>石头科技</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688169" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">688169</a></td>
|
||
<td>推出四驱割草机器人RockMow系列,产品力强劲,作为扫地机龙头跨界潜力大。</td>
|
||
<td>媒体报道</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>腾亚精工</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301125" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">301125</a></td>
|
||
<td>稀缺ODM代工标的,为关联方提供整机加工业务,受益于行业整体爆发。2025年预计关联交易6千万元。</td>
|
||
<td>调研</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>格力博</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301260" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">301260</a></td>
|
||
<td>传统OPE厂商转型,2024年实现第三代割草机器人量产,并有相关募投项目。</td>
|
||
<td>公告</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>安克创新</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300866" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">300866</a></td>
|
||
<td>消费电子龙头跨界,重启割草机器人项目,渠道和品牌优势明显。</td>
|
||
<td>调研</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>苏美达</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600710" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600710</a></td>
|
||
<td>推出无边界AI智能四驱割草机器人,作为公司第二增长极。</td>
|
||
<td>半年报</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>中坚科技</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002779" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002779</a></td>
|
||
<td>传统园林工具企业布局,割草机器人产品已有小批量订单。</td>
|
||
<td>互动</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Rise Analysis -->
|
||
<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-amber-300">涨幅异动分析 (Rise Analysis Supplement)</h2>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-arrow bg-base-200/30 border border-white/10" x-data="{ open: false }">
|
||
<input type="checkbox" @click="open = !open"/>
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium" :class="{'text-amber-400': open}">
|
||
展开查看近期相关概念异动个股分析
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<thead class="text-base text-gray-300">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票</th>
|
||
<th>代码</th>
|
||
<th>日期</th>
|
||
<th>涨幅</th>
|
||
<th>核心上涨逻辑摘要</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>中捷精工</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301072" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">301072</a></td>
|
||
<td>2025-08-22</td>
|
||
<td><span class="text-success">+5.30%</span></td>
|
||
<td>庭院机器人订单从25万台上修至33万台(割草机15万台),带来6.5亿营收增量预期;一体化关节技术突破,成本优势显著。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>机器人</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300024" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">300024</a></td>
|
||
<td>2025-10-09</td>
|
||
<td><span class="text-success">+5.13%</span></td>
|
||
<td>公司参与投资成立注册资本1亿元的机器人科技公司;行业整体利好共振(券商研报、特斯拉进展、行业投资并购)。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>锐奇股份</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300126" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">300126</a></td>
|
||
<td>2025-09-18</td>
|
||
<td><span class="text-error font-bold">+20.02%</span></td>
|
||
<td>公告3亿元投建智能农业机器人产业园,享30%农机补贴,且政府承诺包销5000台,带来收入/利润翻倍预期。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>福龙马</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603686" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">603686</a></td>
|
||
<td>2025-09-19</td>
|
||
<td><span class="text-error font-bold">+9.99%</span></td>
|
||
<td>工信部首台套目录首次将环卫机器人列入30%国家补贴,公司L4级无人清扫车已获准入,盈利模型改善预期强烈。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>玉禾田</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300815" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">300815</a></td>
|
||
<td>2025-09-16</td>
|
||
<td><span class="text-success">+8.50%</span></td>
|
||
<td>受益于智能驾驶/机器人概念板块整体活跃,市场对公司环卫机器人业务布局预期增强。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>富佳股份</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603219" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">603219</a></td>
|
||
<td>2025-08-27</td>
|
||
<td><span class="text-error font-bold">+9.98%</span></td>
|
||
<td>《人工智能+农业行动方案》引爆农业机器人概念,公司将发布农业特种机器人新品;叠加越南基地降本,盈利上修预期。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Footer Disclaimer -->
|
||
<footer class="text-center py-8">
|
||
<p class="text-xs text-gray-500">本报告由北京价值前沿科技有限公司AI投研agent“价小前投研”合成,内容基于公开数据分析,不构成任何投资建议,投资需谨慎。</p>
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