614 lines
43 KiB
HTML
614 lines
43 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>深度行业研究报告: 半导体封测</title>
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<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.10.2/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<script defer src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js"></script>
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
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<style>
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@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:wght@300;400;500;600;700&family=Manrope:wght@300;400;500;700&display=swap');
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body {
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font-family: 'Manrope', 'Inter', sans-serif;
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background-color: #0a0a0f;
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background-image:
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radial-gradient(circle at 10% 15%, rgba(100, 116, 139, 0.15) 0%, transparent 40%),
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radial-gradient(circle at 85% 70%, rgba(56, 189, 248, 0.1) 0%, transparent 50%),
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url('https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1534796636912-3b95b3ab5986?q=80&w=2071&auto=format&fit=crop');
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background-size: cover;
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background-attachment: fixed;
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background-position: center;
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}
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.glass-card {
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background: rgba(15, 23, 42, 0.6); /* slate-900 with opacity */
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backdrop-filter: blur(16px) saturate(180%);
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-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(16px) saturate(180%);
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border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
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border-radius: 1.5rem; /* rounded-3xl */
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box-shadow: 0 8px 32px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.37);
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}
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position: absolute;
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top: 0;
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right: 0;
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bottom: 0;
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border-radius: 1.5rem;
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padding: 1px;
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, rgba(56, 189, 248, 0.3), rgba(168, 85, 247, 0.3));
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-webkit-mask:
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linear-gradient(#fff 0 0) content-box,
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linear-gradient(#fff 0 0);
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-webkit-mask-composite: xor;
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mask-composite: exclude;
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pointer-events: none;
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display: grid;
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gap: 1rem;
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grid-template-columns: repeat(6, 1fr);
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grid-auto-rows: auto;
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}
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transition: transform 0.3s ease-in-out, box-shadow 0.3s ease-in-out;
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.bento-item:hover {
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transform: translateY(-5px);
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box-shadow: 0 10px 40px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5);
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}
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.bento-item-col-2 { grid-column: span 2; }
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.bento-item-col-3 { grid-column: span 3; }
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.bento-item-col-4 { grid-column: span 4; }
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.bento-item-col-6 { grid-column: span 6; }
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.timeline {
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position: relative;
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padding-left: 2.5rem;
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}
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.timeline::before {
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content: '';
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position: absolute;
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left: 0.5rem;
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background-color: rgba(59, 130, 246, 0.3); /* blue-500/30 */
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position: absolute;
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left: -2.25rem;
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height: 1rem;
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border-radius: 9999px;
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background-color: #0f172a; /* slate-900 */
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border: 3px solid #38bdf8; /* sky-400 */
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}
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.section-title {
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font-size: 2.25rem; /* text-4xl */
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font-weight: 700;
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background: linear-gradient(90deg, #e0e7ff, #7dd3fc, #c084fc);
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-webkit-background-clip: text;
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-webkit-text-fill-color: transparent;
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padding-bottom: 0.5rem;
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="text-slate-300">
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8 space-y-12">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center space-y-4">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold bg-gradient-to-r from-sky-400 to-violet-500 text-transparent bg-clip-text">
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半导体封测
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</h1>
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<p class="text-lg md:text-xl text-slate-400">深度行业研究报告</p>
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<div class="text-xs text-slate-500 pt-2">
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由 北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现<br>
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本报告为AI合成数据，据此投资，风险自担。
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</div>
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</header>
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<!-- Core Insight Section -->
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<main class="space-y-12">
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<!-- 0. Concept Events Timeline -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="section-title mb-8">概念演进：关键事件驱动</h2>
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<div class="timeline space-y-8">
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-sky-400">周期性复苏与价格传导 (2023年末 - 2024年)</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-400 mt-2">行业库存于23Q4触底，需求信号回暖。中小厂稼动率率先满产，龙头厂从 <span class="text-amber-400 font-mono">50-60%</span> 低谷回升至 <span class="font-mono text-green-400">70%</span> 以上。驱动IC与存储封测环节率先涨价，验证景气度向上。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-sky-400">结构性驱动：AI与先进封装 (贯穿全年)</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-400 mt-2">AI算力需求爆发，Chiplet、2.5D/3D封装成为行业最强增长引擎。通富微电（绑定AMD MI300）、长电科技（服务国产算力）、华天科技（布局HBM）等龙头纷纷加码先进封装。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-sky-400">地缘政治与国产替代 (2025年)</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-400 mt-2">美国EAR修订版于2025年1月15日首次将封测企业纳入监控范围，限制先进芯片与HBM对华出口。此举凸显封测环节战略重要性，倒逼国内供应链自主可控，为本土龙头创造历史性机遇。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 1. Core Viewpoint Summary -->
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<section class="relative glass-card p-6 md:p-8 glow-effect">
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<h2 class="section-title mb-6">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<p class="text-lg md:text-xl leading-relaxed text-slate-200">
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半导体封测行业正经历一场深刻的价值重估。它已不再是产业链中低附加值的末端环节，而是凭借 <strong class="text-cyan-400">“周期复苏 + AI驱动的先进封装革命”</strong> 双轮驱动，从幕后走向台前。当前，行业正处于 <strong class="text-green-400">稼动率回升、价格传导、盈利修复</strong> 的景气上行初期，而以 <strong class="text-violet-400">Chiplet和HBM</strong> 为代表的先进封装技术，正成为其摆脱周期性束缚、实现长期结构性增长的核心引擎和最大潜力所在。
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</p>
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</section>
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<!-- 2. Core Logic & Market Perception -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="section-title mb-8">核心逻辑与市场认知</h2>
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<div class="space-y-8">
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold text-slate-100 mb-4">四大核心驱动力</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-4 list-disc list-inside text-slate-300">
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<li><strong class="text-sky-400">后摩尔定律时代的技术驱动：</strong> 先进封装 (Chiplet, 2.5D/3D) 成为延续摩尔定律、提升算力的关键路径。英伟达H100单颗芯片封装价值量因此提升 <span class="font-bold text-amber-400">5倍</span>，标志着封测从“成本中心”向“价值创造中心”转变。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-sky-400">AI算力的需求驱动：</strong> AI大模型催生对HBM和高密度算力芯片的爆发式需求，成为最强劲、最确定的结构性增长来源。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-sky-400">周期性复苏的需求驱动：</strong> 传统市场需求复苏，推动稼动率从 <span class="font-mono">~50%</span> 攀升至 <span class="font-mono">>70%</span>，是企业盈利能力修复的最直接前提。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-sky-400">地缘政治的国产替代驱动：</strong> 美国EAR新规加速国内供应链闭环，为本土封测龙头承接高端订单创造空前机遇，提升板块估值中枢。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold text-slate-100 mb-4">市场热度与预期差分析</h3>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div class="p-4 bg-slate-800/50 rounded-2xl border border-slate-700">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-green-400">市场热度与乐观情绪</h4>
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<p class="mt-2 text-sm">市场热度极高，半导体ETF集体爆发，路演会议密集，研报集中发布。市场普遍认可“AI+国产替代”双重逻辑，愿意为相关业务支付高估值溢价。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-slate-800/50 rounded-2xl border border-slate-700">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-amber-400">值得关注的预期差</h4>
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<ul class="mt-2 space-y-2 text-sm list-disc list-inside">
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<li><strong class="text-slate-100">盈利修复的滞后性：</strong> 营收增长强劲，但部分公司（如华天科技）仍“以价换量”，毛利率承压，盈利弹性可能低于市场预期。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-slate-100">先进封装的价值分配：</strong> 晶圆代工厂（如台积电）在CoWoS等方案中攫取了大部分价值，OSAT的实际利润空间需客观看待。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-slate-100">技术成熟度与良率挑战：</strong> 3D封装良率（<span class="font-mono">~70-80%</span>）远低于传统封装（<span class="font-mono">>95%</span>），是制约成本和规模化的核心瓶颈。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-slate-100">复苏的非均衡性：</strong> AI/服务器领域火热，但消费电子复苏相对温和，存在结构性分化（如长电Q2手机业务拖累）。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Echarts Visualization -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="section-title mb-6">全球封测市场规模预测</h2>
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<div id="market-size-chart" style="width: 100%; height: 400px;"></div>
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</section>
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<!-- 3. Catalysts & Future Path -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="section-title mb-8">关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold text-slate-100 mb-4">近期催化剂 (3-6个月)</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3">
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<svg class="w-6 h-6 text-cyan-400 mr-3 mt-1 flex-shrink-0" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M13 10V3L4 14h7v7l9-11h-7z"></path></svg>
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<span><strong class="text-slate-200">价格全面上涨：</strong> 旺季稼动率超80%，涨价趋势有望扩散，直接增厚利润。</span>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<svg class="w-6 h-6 text-cyan-400 mr-3 mt-1 flex-shrink-0" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M9 12l2 2 4-4m6 2a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z"></path></svg>
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<span><strong class="text-slate-200">Q3/Q4财报验证：</strong> 市场将聚焦毛利率拐点及先进封装业务收入占比。</span>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<svg class="w-6 h-6 text-cyan-400 mr-3 mt-1 flex-shrink-0" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M9 3v2m6-2v2M9 19v2m6-2v2M5 9H3m2 6H3m18-6h-2m2 6h-2M12 6V3m0 18v-3M5.636 5.636l1.414 1.414m10.05-1.414l-1.414 1.414M5.636 18.364l1.414-1.414m10.05 1.414l-1.414-1.414"></path></svg>
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<span><strong class="text-slate-200">国产AI芯片放量：</strong> 华为、阿里等订单落地，直接验证国产替代逻辑。</span>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold text-slate-100 mb-4">长期发展路径</h3>
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<ul class="steps steps-vertical">
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<li data-content="1" class="step step-primary"><strong class="text-slate-200">当前 - 2025年：</strong>产能与盈利修复。</li>
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<li data-content="2" class="step step-primary"><strong class="text-slate-200">2025 - 2027年：</strong>先进封装技术突破与量产。</li>
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<li data-content="3" class="step"><strong class="text-slate-200">2027年以后：</strong>生态与标准领导。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 4. Industry Chain & Core Companies -->
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<section>
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<h2 class="section-title mb-8 text-center">产业链图谱与核心玩家</h2>
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-col-2 p-6 glass-card flex flex-col justify-center">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-violet-400">上游：设备</h4>
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<p class="text-sm mt-2">测试/检测设备: 华峰测控, 长川科技, 精测电子<br>封装设备: 耐科装备, 新益昌</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-col-2 p-6 glass-card flex flex-col justify-center">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-violet-400">上游：材料</h4>
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<p class="text-sm mt-2">封装基板: 康强电子<br>塑封料: 华海诚科<br>粘合材料: 德邦科技</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-col-2 p-6 glass-card row-span-2 flex flex-col justify-center items-center">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-sky-400">中游：封装与测试</h4>
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<p class="text-sm mt-2 text-center"><strong>OSAT龙头:</strong><br>长电科技, 通富微电, 华天科技<br><br><strong>细分专家:</strong><br>晶方科技 (CIS), 深科技 (存储)<br><br><strong>第三方测试:</strong><br>伟测科技, 利扬芯片</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-col-4 p-6 glass-card flex flex-col justify-center">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-green-400">下游：应用领域</h4>
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<p class="text-sm mt-2">芯片设计: AMD, 苹果, 华为海思, 联发科<br>应用终端: AI服务器, 智能手机, 汽车, 消费电子</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="mt-8 overflow-x-auto glass-card p-4">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold text-slate-100 mb-4 p-4">核心玩家对比</h3>
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<table class="table table-zebra-zebra">
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<thead>
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<tr class="text-slate-200">
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<th>公司</th>
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<th>竞争优势</th>
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<th>业务进展与验证</th>
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<th>潜在风险</th>
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<th class="text-center">逻辑纯粹度</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td class="font-bold text-white">长电科技</td>
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<td>技术+客户双龙头，全球第三、国内第一，深度绑定苹果。</td>
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<td>24H1营收+27.2%，Q2利润环比+257%。收购晟碟半导体。</td>
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<td>对消费电子依赖度高，面临Foundry直接竞争。</td>
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<td class="text-center font-bold text-cyan-400">★★★★★</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="font-bold text-white">通富微电</td>
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<td>深度绑定AI巨头，超50%营收来自AMD，AI逻辑最硬。</td>
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<td>24H1净利扭亏。槟城工厂扩产承接MI300订单。Chiplet技术已量产。</td>
|
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<td>客户集中度过高，受单一客户及地缘政治影响大。</td>
|
||
<td class="text-center font-bold text-cyan-400">★★★★★</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="font-bold text-white">华天科技</td>
|
||
<td>成本优势+产能扩张，在存储、MEMS封装有传统优势。</td>
|
||
<td>24H1净利+254%，弹性大。HBM2e封装已通过验证。</td>
|
||
<td>扩张期毛利率承压，先进封装技术进展稍慢。</td>
|
||
<td class="text-center font-bold text-sky-400">★★★★☆</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="font-bold text-white">华峰测控 / 长川科技</td>
|
||
<td>上游设备商，直接受益于封测厂资本开支扩张和国产化。</td>
|
||
<td>华峰测控模拟测试机国产化成熟。长川科技多领域布局。</td>
|
||
<td>高端数字测试机仍依赖进口，业绩与下游资本开支周期强相关。</td>
|
||
<td class="text-center font-bold text-sky-400">★★★★☆</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 5. Risks & Challenges -->
|
||
<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title mb-6">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
|
||
<div class="p-4 bg-red-900/20 rounded-xl border border-red-500/30">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-red-400 flex items-center"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 mr-2" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M11.49 3.17c-.38-1.56-2.6-1.56-2.98 0L6 8.69 1.47 9.32c-1.64.24-2.3 2.22-1.1 3.32L4.2 16.5 3.06 21.1c-.3 1.6 1.4 2.85 2.88 2.14L10 20.57l4.06 2.67c1.48.7 3.18-.54 2.88-2.14l-1.14-4.6L19.63 12.64c1.2-1.1 0.54-3.08-1.1-3.32L14 8.69l-2.51-5.52z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>技术风险</h4>
|
||
<ul class="mt-2 space-y-2 text-sm list-disc list-inside">
|
||
<li>先进封装良率瓶颈 (<span class="font-mono">70-80%</span>)</li>
|
||
<li>国产HBM生态不成熟</li>
|
||
<li>高端测试设备依赖进口</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="p-4 bg-amber-900/20 rounded-xl border border-amber-500/30">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-amber-400 flex items-center"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 mr-2" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor"><path d="M10.894 2.553a1 1 0 00-1.788 0l-7 14a1 1 0 001.169 1.409l5-1.429A1 1 0 008 16.571V11.5a1 1 0 012 0v5.071a1 1 0 00.725.962l5 1.428a1 1 0 001.17-1.408l-7-14z" /></svg>商业化风险</h4>
|
||
<ul class="mt-2 space-y-2 text-sm list-disc list-inside">
|
||
<li>资本开支巨大，需求不及预期将侵蚀利润</li>
|
||
<li>过度依赖AI单一增长点</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="p-4 bg-indigo-900/20 rounded-xl border border-indigo-500/30">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-indigo-400 flex items-center"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 mr-2" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor"><path d="M10 2a5 5 0 00-5 5v2a2 2 0 00-2 2v5a2 2 0 002 2h10a2 2 0 002-2v-5a2 2 0 00-2-2V7a5 5 0 00-5-5zm0 2a3 3 0 013 3v2H7V7a3 3 0 013-3z" /></svg>政策与竞争风险</h4>
|
||
<ul class="mt-2 space-y-2 text-sm list-disc list-inside">
|
||
<li>美国制裁加剧风险</li>
|
||
<li>Foundry的“降维打击”</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 6. Conclusion & Investment启示 -->
|
||
<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title mb-6">综合结论与投资启示</h2>
|
||
<p class="mb-6">半导体封测行业正处在一个从周期性修复迈向结构性成长的黄金交叉点，投资逻辑已由“主题炒作”进入“基本面驱动”的验证阶段。</p>
|
||
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
|
||
<div class="p-4 bg-slate-800/50 rounded-2xl border border-slate-700">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-green-400">最具投资价值的细分环节</h4>
|
||
<ul class="mt-2 space-y-2 text-sm list-disc list-inside">
|
||
<li><strong class="text-slate-100">AI驱动的先进封装服务：</strong> 确定性最强、空间最大。核心标的：通富微电、长电科技。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-slate-100">先进封装上游设备与材料：</strong> 享受更高业绩弹性的“卖铲人”。核心标的：华峰测控、长川科技、华海诚科。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="p-4 bg-slate-800/50 rounded-2xl border border-slate-700">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-amber-400">需重点跟踪验证的关键指标</h4>
|
||
<ul class="mt-2 space-y-2 text-sm list-disc list-inside">
|
||
<li>稼动率 (Utilization Rate): 目标 > 80%</li>
|
||
<li>毛利率 (Gross Margin): 关注拐点</li>
|
||
<li>先进封装收入占比</li>
|
||
<li>合同负债/预收账款</li>
|
||
<li>国产设备/材料导入进度</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Supporting Data Section -->
|
||
<section class="space-y-4">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title mb-6 text-center">原始数据支撑</h2>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="my-accordion-3" checked="checked" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-sky-300">
|
||
新闻数据精粹
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 p-4 text-slate-400 text-sm">
|
||
<li><strong>市场规模预测:</strong> Yole预计2024年全球封测市场达899亿美元(+5%)，2026年达961亿美元，其中先进封装占比将提高至54%。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>价格波动:</strong> 存储封测（力成、南茂）因供不应求计划涨价；驱动IC封测（颀邦、南茂）因金价上涨已上调报价。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>美国EAR更新:</strong> 首次将封测企业纳入监控，限制向中国出口先进逻辑芯片与HBM。国内企业供应端未受限，但销售端可能涉及License申请。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>公司动态:</strong> 深科技、佰维存储等封测项目满产或投产；长电科技、华天科技等通过收购或设立基金布局产业链。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>技术进展:</strong> 长电、深科技在多层堆叠、2.5D等先进封装技术上具备量产能力。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="my-accordion-3" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-sky-300">
|
||
路演纪要精华
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 p-4 text-slate-400 text-sm">
|
||
<li><strong>稼动率:</strong> 大厂从23年初50-60%回升至24Q2约70%+，中小厂已满产。预计24H2旺季可达80%以上，有望推动涨价。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>长电科技:</strong> 行业龙头，A客户(苹果)占比高，绍兴基地布局2.5D/3D服务国产算力。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>通富微电:</strong> 深度绑定AMD(收入占比>50%)，受益于MI300等AI芯片放量，马来西亚槟城工厂扩产。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>华天科技:</strong> 成本优势明显，南京工厂扩产抢份额，昆山布局先进封装，HBM2e封装已通过验证。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>先进封装趋势:</strong> Chiplet技术是核心驱动力，英伟达H100、苹果M3等均已应用。TSV等前段工序由Foundry主导，RDL等后段由OSAT负责。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>测试环节:</strong> AI芯片对测试设备功耗、速度、存储深度提出更高要求。高端数字测试机、探针台仍依赖进口。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="my-accordion-3" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-sky-300">
|
||
研究报告摘要
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 p-4 text-slate-400 text-sm">
|
||
<li><strong>行业周期:</strong> 2024年库存水位健康，IC设计公司库存周转天数触底回升，看好AI带动周期复苏。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>市场规模:</strong> Yole预计24年全球封装市场规模899亿美元(+9.4%)；中国市场预计2891亿元(+3.0%)。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>龙头业绩 (24H1):</strong>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>长电科技:</strong> 营收154.87亿(+27.22%)，净利6.19亿(+24.96%)。拟收购晟碟半导体80%股权。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>通富微电:</strong> 营收110.80亿(+11.83%)，净利3.23亿(扭亏)。FC、存储等产品线高速增长。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>华天科技:</strong> 营收67.18亿(+32.02%)，净利2.23亿(+254.23%)。2.5D、FOPLP项目稳步推进。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li><strong>产业链受益:</strong> 封测厂积极布局先进封装，上游设备(骄成超声、精测电子)和材料(唯万密封、上海新阳)率先受益。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>风险提示:</strong> 半导体周期复苏不及预期、价格竞争、新客户导入不及预期等。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Rise Analysis -->
|
||
<section>
|
||
<h2 class="section-title text-center mb-8">近期市场异动解析</h2>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-6 flex flex-col justify-between">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<div class="flex justify-between items-center">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-white">万润科技 (002654)</h3>
|
||
<div class="badge badge-accent badge-lg">+9.98%</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400 mt-1">2025-09-01</p>
|
||
<div class="mt-4 text-sm text-slate-300 space-y-2 prose max-w-none prose-p:my-1 prose-strong:text-sky-400">
|
||
<strong>核心结论:</strong> 美国新一轮半导体限制触发国产存储替代预期，叠加长江存储18.7亿元封测订单落地，股价涨停。
|
||
<br><strong>驱动概念:</strong> 国产存储替代 + 长江存储供应链 + 半导体封测
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-6 flex flex-col justify-between">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<div class="flex justify-between items-center">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-white">盈新发展 (000620)</h3>
|
||
<div class="badge badge-accent badge-lg">+9.85%</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400 mt-1">2025-10-27</p>
|
||
<div class="mt-4 text-sm text-slate-300 space-y-2 prose max-w-none prose-p:my-1 prose-strong:text-sky-400">
|
||
<strong>核心结论:</strong> “地产政策放松预期”与“拟控股存储封测公司”双主线共振，被市场重定价为“地产+半导体并购”双概念股。
|
||
<br><strong>驱动概念:</strong> 地产政策松绑 + 半导体封测并购
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-6 flex flex-col justify-between">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<div class="flex justify-between items-center">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-white">太极实业 (600667)</h3>
|
||
<div class="badge badge-accent badge-lg">+9.95%</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400 mt-1">2025-10-09</p>
|
||
<div class="mt-4 text-sm text-slate-300 space-y-2 prose max-w-none prose-p:my-1 prose-strong:text-sky-400">
|
||
<strong>核心结论:</strong> SK海力士将DDR4封测产能转向HBM，导致公司A股仅存的可放量DDR4封测产能被视为稀缺资源，获资金抢筹。
|
||
<br><strong>驱动概念:</strong> DDR4封测产能转移 + 存储供给侧收缩
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Table -->
|
||
<section>
|
||
<h2 class="section-title text-center mb-8">半导体封测概念核心标的</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card p-4">
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<thead class="text-slate-200 text-base">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>代码</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑/标签</th>
|
||
<th>产业链环节</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<!-- 封测服务 -->
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-semibold text-white">长电科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600584" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">600584</a></td><td>封测公司, Chiplet先进封装</td><td class="text-cyan-400">封测服务</td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-semibold text-white">通富微电</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002156" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">002156</a></td><td>封测公司, Chiplet先进封装</td><td class="text-cyan-400">封测服务</td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-semibold text-white">华天科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002185" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">002185</a></td><td>封测公司, Chiplet先进封装</td><td class="text-cyan-400">封测服务</td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-semibold text-white">晶方科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603005" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">603005</a></td><td>封测公司 (CIS图像传感器)</td><td class="text-cyan-400">封测服务</td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-semibold text-white">深科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000021" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">000021</a></td><td>封测公司 (存储)</td><td class="text-cyan-400">封测服务</td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-semibold text-white">伟测科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688372" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">688372</a></td><td>第三方测试</td><td class="text-cyan-400">封测服务</td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-semibold text-white">利扬芯片</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688135" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">688135</a></td><td>第三方测试</td><td class="text-cyan-400">封测服务</td></tr>
|
||
<!-- 封测设备 -->
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-semibold text-white">华峰测控</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688200" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">688200</a></td><td>测试设备</td><td class="text-violet-400">封测设备</td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-semibold text-white">长川科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300604" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">300604</a></td><td>测试设备</td><td class="text-violet-400">封测设备</td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-semibold text-white">精测电子</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300567" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">300567</a></td><td>检测设备</td><td class="text-violet-400">封测设备</td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-semibold text-white">赛腾股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603283" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">603283</a></td><td>检测设备</td><td class="text-violet-400">封测设备</td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-semibold text-white">新益昌</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688383" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">688383</a></td><td>封装设备</td><td class="text-violet-400">封测设备</td></tr>
|
||
<!-- 封测材料 -->
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-semibold text-white">华海诚科</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688535" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">688535</a></td><td>唯一一家环氧塑封料上市公司</td><td class="text-amber-400">封测材料</td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-semibold text-white">康强电子</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002119" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">002119</a></td><td>引线框架和键合丝国内第一</td><td class="text-amber-400">封测材料</td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-semibold text-white">德邦科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688035" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">688035</a></td><td>晶圆UV膜市占率第一</td><td class="text-amber-400">封测材料</td></tr>
|
||
<!-- Chiplet相关 -->
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-semibold text-white">芯原股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688521" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">688521</a></td><td>Chiplet先进封装</td><td class="text-fuchsia-400">先进封装</td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function () {
|
||
var chartDom = document.getElementById('market-size-chart');
|
||
var myChart = echarts.init(chartDom, 'dark');
|
||
var option;
|
||
|
||
option = {
|
||
backgroundColor: 'transparent',
|
||
tooltip: {
|
||
trigger: 'axis',
|
||
axisPointer: {
|
||
type: 'cross',
|
||
label: {
|
||
backgroundColor: '#6a7985'
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
legend: {
|
||
data: ['全球封测市场规模', '先进封装市场规模'],
|
||
textStyle: {
|
||
color: '#ccc'
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
grid: {
|
||
left: '3%',
|
||
right: '4%',
|
||
bottom: '3%',
|
||
containLabel: true
|
||
},
|
||
xAxis: [
|
||
{
|
||
type: 'category',
|
||
boundaryGap: false,
|
||
data: ['2023', '2024', '2025', '2026'],
|
||
axisLine: {
|
||
lineStyle: {
|
||
color: '#8392A5'
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
yAxis: [
|
||
{
|
||
type: 'value',
|
||
name: '亿美元',
|
||
axisLabel: {
|
||
formatter: '{value}'
|
||
},
|
||
axisLine: {
|
||
lineStyle: {
|
||
color: '#8392A5'
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
splitLine: {
|
||
lineStyle:{
|
||
color: 'rgba(255,255,255,0.1)'
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
series: [
|
||
{
|
||
name: '全球封测市场规模',
|
||
type: 'line',
|
||
stack: 'Total',
|
||
smooth: true,
|
||
lineStyle: {
|
||
width: 2,
|
||
color: '#38bdf8' // sky-400
|
||
},
|
||
showSymbol: false,
|
||
areaStyle: {
|
||
opacity: 0.8,
|
||
color: new echarts.graphic.LinearGradient(0, 0, 0, 1, [{
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||
offset: 0,
|
||
color: 'rgba(56, 189, 248, 0.5)'
|
||
}, {
|
||
offset: 1,
|
||
color: 'rgba(56, 189, 248, 0)'
|
||
}])
|
||
},
|
||
emphasis: {
|
||
focus: 'series'
|
||
},
|
||
data: [857, 899, 930, 961] // 2023 data from研报, 2025 estimated
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
name: '先进封装市场规模',
|
||
type: 'line',
|
||
stack: 'Total',
|
||
smooth: true,
|
||
lineStyle: {
|
||
width: 2,
|
||
color: '#a855f7' // purple-600
|
||
},
|
||
showSymbol: false,
|
||
areaStyle: {
|
||
opacity: 0.8,
|
||
color: new echarts.graphic.LinearGradient(0, 0, 0, 1, [{
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||
offset: 0,
|
||
color: 'rgba(168, 85, 247, 0.5)'
|
||
}, {
|
||
offset: 1,
|
||
color: 'rgba(168, 85, 247, 0)'
|
||
}])
|
||
},
|
||
emphasis: {
|
||
focus: 'series'
|
||
},
|
||
data: [418, 450, 487, 522] // Based on growing share, 48.8% in 2023, 54% in 2026
|
||
}
|
||
]
|
||
};
|
||
|
||
option && myChart.setOption(option);
|
||
window.addEventListener('resize', myChart.resize);
|
||
});
|
||
</script>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html> |