385 lines
24 KiB
HTML
385 lines
24 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>四川算力 - 概念深度解析</title>
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background-image:
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="min-h-screen">
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
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<header class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold orbitron text-glow-cyan mb-2">四川算力</h1>
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<p class="text-xl md:text-2xl text-cyan-200/80">概念深度解析报告</p>
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<div class="mt-4 text-xs text-gray-500">
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<p>北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现</p>
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<p>本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎</p>
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</div>
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</header>
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<main class="space-y-12">
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<!-- 核心观点摘要 -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8 glow-border">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold orbitron text-glow-cyan mb-4">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<p class="text-base leading-relaxed text-gray-300">
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“四川算力”概念正处于由<strong class="text-cyan-300">政策驱动的基建爆发前期</strong>，向<strong class="text-purple-300">产业生态构建的过渡阶段</strong>。其核心驱动力源于“国家战略定位 + 地方绿色能源优势 + 国产化浪潮”的三重叠加。未来潜力巨大，但短期内市场情绪与基本面兑现之间存在显著的预期差，投资机会与投机泡沫并存。
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</p>
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</section>
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<!-- 概念事件 & 发展蓝图 -->
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<section class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
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<!-- 概念事件 -->
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<div class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold orbitron text-glow-cyan mb-6">概念形成与发酵</h2>
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<div class="timeline">
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-cyan-300">顶层设计 (2024年前)</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">国家“东数西算”工程确立成渝国家算力枢纽节点，为四川发展奠定基石。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-cyan-300">政策定调 (2024年)</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">发布《四川省算力基础设施高质量发展行动方案》等核心文件，提出宏大蓝图和量化指标，创新性提出建设“算力超市”。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-cyan-300">产业协同 (2024-2025年)</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">省政府与中国电信合作，高新发展并购华鲲振宇切入国产算力赛道。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-cyan-300">市场验证 (2024-2025年)</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">光模块出口数据亮眼，金时科技获1.2亿专项补助，政策从文件走向现实。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 发展蓝图 -->
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<div class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold orbitron text-glow-cyan mb-6">四川算力2027发展蓝图</h2>
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<div id="goalsChart" class="w-full h-[400px]"></div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 核心逻辑与市场认知 -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold orbitron text-glow-cyan mb-6">核心逻辑与市场认知</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div class="p-4 border border-cyan-500/30 rounded-2xl">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-cyan-300 mb-2">政策强力驱动</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">拥有极其明确、量化的省级顶层设计。40EFLOPS总量目标、60%智算占比及“算力超市”机制创新，构成最坚实的底层逻辑和政府投资路线图。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 border border-purple-500/30 rounded-2xl">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-purple-300 mb-2">独特的“算电协同”优势</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">四川作为清洁能源大省，丰富的水电、光伏资源能为高耗能的数据中心提供低成本、绿色、可持续的电力，构成核心成本与合规优势。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 border-teal-500/30 rounded-2xl">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-teal-300 mb-2">国产化替代战略要地</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">以高新发展/华鲲振宇为支点，深度绑定华为鲲鹏、昇腾生态，承接国家信创、AI国产化战略，打造国产算力服务器的生产和应用高地。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div x-data="{ open: false }" class="mt-6">
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<button @click="open = !open" class="w-full text-left text-cyan-300 hover:text-cyan-100 transition-colors duration-300">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg">市场热度与预期差分析 <span x-show="!open">▸</span><span x-show="open">▾</span></h3>
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</button>
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<div x-show="open" x-collapse class="mt-4 text-sm text-gray-400 space-y-4">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-gray-200">市场热度与情绪：</h4>
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<p>当前市场对“四川算力”概念热度极高，情绪整体乐观但夹杂大量投机成分。政策补贴的实际到账（金时科技）提振信心，但“四川金顶”、“四川双马”等案例也反映出基于地域名称和模糊概念的非理性炒作泡沫。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-gray-200">预期差分析：</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 pl-2">
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<li><strong class="text-gray-100">硬件制造 vs. 算力运营：</strong>市场普遍关注设备制造（华鲲振宇），但可能忽略了四川在光模块等核心硬件出口的既有强大实力，产业基础比认知更扎实。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-gray-100">宏大规划 vs. 商业闭环：</strong>40EFLOPS蓝图宏大，但商业闭环是潜在担忧。“算力超市”是连接宏大叙事与商业现实的关键桥梁，其运营成败是未来最大的预期差所在。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 产业链与核心公司剖析 -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold orbitron text-glow-cyan mb-6">产业链与核心公司剖析</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6 text-center">
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<!-- 上游 -->
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-purple-300 border-b-2 border-purple-500/50 pb-2">上游：能源与核心硬件</h3>
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<div class="p-3 bg-black/20 rounded-xl text-sm"><strong>能源供给:</strong> 清洁能源 (水电/光伏)</div>
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<div class="p-3 bg-black/20 rounded-xl text-sm"><strong>核心硬件:</strong> 服务器 (高新发展/华鲲振宇), 光模块 (本地供应链), 电源 (动力源), AI芯片适配 (星环科技)</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 中游 -->
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-cyan-300 border-b-2 border-cyan-500/50 pb-2">中游：基建与运营</h3>
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<div class="p-3 bg-black/20 rounded-xl text-sm"><strong>IDC建设/集成:</strong> 高新发展</div>
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<div class="p-3 bg-black/20 rounded-xl text-sm"><strong>配套设施:</strong> 精密温控 (依米康)</div>
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<div class="p-3 bg-black/20 rounded-xl text-sm"><strong>运营平台:</strong> “算力超市” (政府主导)</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 下游 -->
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-teal-300 border-b-2 border-teal-500/50 pb-2">下游：应用与服务</h3>
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<div class="p-3 bg-black/20 rounded-xl text-sm"><strong>应用场景:</strong> 智慧矿山, 智慧城市, 制造业智改数转, 低空经济</div>
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<div class="p-3 bg-black/20 rounded-xl text-sm"><strong>软件/平台:</strong> 星环科技 (智能计算产品)</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 市场异动案例分析 -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold orbitron text-glow-cyan mb-6">市场异动案例分析</h2>
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<div class="glass-card p-4 col-span-1 md:col-span-2 space-y-2">
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<div class="flex items-center gap-2">
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<span class="font-bold text-lg">金时科技 (002951)</span>
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<span class="badge badge-success badge-outline">+10.0%</span>
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<span class="text-xs text-gray-500">2025-07-08</span>
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</div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300"><strong class="text-cyan-300">核心驱动:</strong> 四川算力专项补助到账。控股子公司四川金时智算获1.2亿元中央及省级资金，是政策从文件走向现实，真金白银支持产业的直接证据，引发资金集中抢筹。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-4 space-y-2">
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<div class="flex items-center gap-2">
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<span class="font-bold text-lg">四川金顶 (600678)</span>
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<span class="badge badge-warning badge-outline">概念澄清</span>
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</div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300"><strong class="text-yellow-300">市场情绪:</strong> 因名称和地域被市场错误关联“太空算力”、“金矿”等概念。公司发公告澄清不涉及相关业务，侧面反映出市场对“四川”+“科技”标签的高度敏感和投机热情。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-4 space-y-2">
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<div class="flex items-center gap-2">
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<span class="font-bold text-lg">四川双马 (000935)</span>
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<span class="badge badge-info badge-outline">板块联动</span>
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</div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300"><strong class="text-blue-300">驱动逻辑:</strong> 上涨并非由自身实质性利好驱动，而是典型的“搭便车”行情，来源于市场对“建材/基C建”板块的追捧以及“四川地域”概念的联动效应。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 潜在风险与投资启示 -->
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<section class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
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<div class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold orbitron text-glow-magenta mb-6">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-sm list-disc list-inside text-gray-400">
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<li><strong class="text-red-300">技术风险:</strong> 国产化路线高度依赖华为昇腾/鲲鹏体系，其未来迭代、生态完善及面对外部封锁的韧性是基石，存在不确定性。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-red-300">商业化风险:</strong> 利用率是核心挑战。建成40EFLOPS后能否吸引足够付费用户支撑高昂运营成本是最大商业风险，“算力超市”模式有待市场检验。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-red-300">政策与竞争风险:</strong> 长期补贴不可持续，且面临贵州、甘肃等其他算力枢纽的同质化竞争，可能导致未来“价格战”。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-red-300">信息交叉验证风险:</strong> 市场存在大量炒作与基本面脱节的情况，如广安爱众的算力资产地理位置与确认度问题，投资者需谨慎甄别。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold orbitron text-glow-cyan mb-6">综合结论与投资启示</h2>
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<p class="mb-4 text-sm text-gray-300">“四川算力”已进入由政策和资金双轮驱动的早期成长阶段。未来1-2年投资逻辑将围绕<strong class="text-cyan-300">基础设施建设</strong>展开；2-3年后，焦点将转向<strong class="text-purple-300">应用生态繁荣</strong>和算力中心的实际运营效率。</p>
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<h4 class="font-bold text-md text-gray-200 mb-2">最具投资价值的细分环节:</h4>
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<ol class="space-y-2 text-sm list-decimal list-inside text-gray-400">
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<li><strong class="text-gray-100">国产算力服务器核心供应商:</strong> 确定性最高、弹性最大，是产业链的“硬通货”。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-gray-100">数据中心关键配套设备商:</strong> 基建“刚需”，业绩与建设规模直接挂钩，逻辑稳健。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-gray-100">被低估的硬件供应链:</strong> 四川在光模块等领域的出口实力强劲，可能存在预期差机会。</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 核心标的池 -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold orbitron text-glow-cyan mb-6">核心标的池</h2>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="table w-full">
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<thead class="text-sm text-cyan-200/80">
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<tr>
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<th class="bg-transparent">股票名称</th>
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<th class="bg-transparent">股票代码</th>
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<th class="bg-transparent">核心逻辑</th>
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<th class="bg-transparent">其他标签</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr class="border-b border-gray-700/50 hover:bg-cyan-900/20">
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent font-bold">高新发展</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000628" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">000628</a></td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent text-sm text-gray-300">华鲲振宇的控股股东，深度绑定华为，卡位国产AI服务器核心赛道，是整个概念的“链主”企业。</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent">流通值: 101亿</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-700/50 hover:bg-cyan-900/20">
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent font-bold">依米康</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300249" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">300249</a></td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent text-sm text-gray-300">数据中心“卖铲人”，专注精密温控节能，直接受益于四川15个智算中心的建设计划。</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent">流通值: 33亿</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-700/50 hover:bg-cyan-900/20">
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent font-bold">四川长虹</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600839" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">600839</a></td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent text-sm text-gray-300">子公司长虹佳华是华为算力产业链的重要分销商，深度参与国产算力生态。</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent">流通值: 475亿</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-700/50 hover:bg-cyan-900/20">
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent font-bold">广安爱众</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600979" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">600979</a></td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent text-sm text-gray-300">国资百亿级算力资产【丝绸云谷】注入预期，具备巨大想象空间，但存在不确定性。</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent">流通值: 34亿</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-700/50 hover:bg-cyan-900/20">
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent font-bold">动力源</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600405" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">600405</a></td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent text-sm text-gray-300">为华为数据通信、数据中心业务提供交换机模块电源、应急电源等产品，是华为生态协同者。</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent">流通值: 24亿</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b-0 hover:bg-cyan-900/20">
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent font-bold">星环科技</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688031" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">688031</a></td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent text-sm text-gray-300">与华为在智能计算产品展开合作，和华为鲲鹏、昇腾AI计算保持深度适配，提供软件与平台层支持。</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent">流通值: 36亿</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
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