380 lines
28 KiB
HTML
380 lines
28 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>深度研报: AIDC供配电设备弹性</title>
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<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.11.1/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:wght@300;400;500;600;700&display=swap');
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body {
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font-family: 'Inter', sans-serif;
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background-color: #0c0a09;
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background-image:
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radial-gradient(circle at 25% 30%, rgba(13, 71, 161, 0.15) 0%, transparent 50%),
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-webkit-background-clip: text;
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-webkit-text-fill-color: transparent;
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="antialiased min-h-screen">
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold glow-text tracking-tight">AIDC供配电设备弹性</h1>
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<p class="text-lg text-indigo-300 mt-4">深度行业研究报告</p>
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<div class="mt-4 text-xs text-gray-500">
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<p>由 北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现</p>
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<p class="mt-1">本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎</p>
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</div>
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</header>
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<!-- Main Content Grid -->
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<main class="space-y-12">
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<!-- Insight Section -->
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<section id="insight">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-8 text-center section-title">概念核心洞察 (Concept Insight)</h2>
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<!-- Core Viewpoint -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 grid-item-1">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-violet-300">核心观点摘要</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300">AIDC供配电设备概念正处在由<strong class="text-cyan-400">需求爆发驱动的景气上行周期</strong>，其核心“弹性”源于AI算力需求与现有电力基础设施之间的巨大缺口。这一缺口不仅带来了设备需求量的<strong class="text-cyan-400">指数级增长</strong>（研报预测全球AIDC装机量2024-28年CAGR达<strong class="text-green-400">73%</strong>），更强制推动了从UPS到HVDC、从低压到高压、从传统变压器到固态变压器的<strong class="text-cyan-400">颠覆性技术变革</strong>，从而为产业链各环节带来了价值重估的巨大机遇。</p>
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</div>
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<!-- Core Logic -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 grid-item-2">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-violet-300">核心逻辑与市场认知</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-4 text-gray-300">
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<li><strong>根本驱动: 算力功耗的暴力增长。</strong>英伟达GPU功率从A100的400W激增至GB200的<strong class="text-amber-400">2700W</strong>，机柜功率迈向百KW甚至MW时代。供配电从“辅助配套”升级为“核心瓶颈”。</li>
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<li><strong>直接驱动: 云巨头资本开支的“军备竞赛”。</strong>国内外云厂商资本开支计划为产业链注入了极强需求确定性。新闻数据显示，阿里、腾讯等国内厂商2024年前三季度Capex合计同比<strong class="text-green-400">+119%</strong>。</li>
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<li><strong>结构驱动: 技术迭代与国产替代。</strong>高功率密度放大传统方案痛点，推动HVDC、BBU渗透。同时，高端设备（如大功率柴发）的供应链瓶颈（外资产能告罄）为国内厂商打开了国产替代窗口。</li>
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<li><strong>市场情绪:</strong> 当前市场<strong class="text-rose-400">热度极高，整体情绪乐观</strong>。新闻标题直接使用“弹性测算”、“供需缺口急剧扩张”，研报普遍给出极高市场空间预测，强化增长共识。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<!-- Expectation Gap -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 grid-item-3">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-violet-300">预期差分析</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-sm text-gray-400">
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<li><strong class="text-amber-400">柴发“短期弹性”vs“长期风险”：</strong>市场高度关注柴发量价齐升，但忽视了微软等巨头<strong class="text-red-400">2030年停用柴发</strong>的长期替代风险。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-amber-400">新技术“理想”vs“落地挑战”：</strong>市场对HVDC/SST替代速度可能过于乐观，路演专家指出HVDC存在生态不完善挑战，SST规模化应用仍在<strong class="text-red-400">3-4年后</strong>。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-amber-400">“全面受益”vs“结构分化”：</strong>弹性存在巨大分化。AI服务器电源(PSU)和HVDC的增速<strong class="text-red-400">（CAGR 243%/165%）</strong>远超柴发（CAGR 43%），市场可能存在认知误区。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<!-- Catalysts -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 grid-item-4">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-violet-300">关键催化剂与发展路径</h3>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-indigo-300">近期催化剂 (未来3-6个月)</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside text-gray-400 text-sm mt-2 space-y-1">
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<li>头部云厂商新一轮超预期的资本开支公告。</li>
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<li>标志性AIDC项目（如“星际之门”）公布中标厂商和技术方案。</li>
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<li>柴发、变压器等关键设备新一轮涨价或交付周期拉长。</li>
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<li>国产替代突破性进展（如获得海外巨头大额订单）。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-indigo-300">长期发展路径</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside text-gray-400 text-sm mt-2 space-y-1">
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-400">当前-2026:</strong> “量”与“价”共振，满足海量需求，传统设备受益，HVDC/BBU渗透率提升。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-400">2026-2028:</strong> “技术”与“标准”重塑，800V高压直流或成标准，HVDC成主流，SST小批量应用。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-400">2028以后:</strong> “融合”与“智能化”，供配电与储能、微电网、液冷深度融合，SST大规模应用。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Investment Insights -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 grid-item-5">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-violet-300">综合结论与投资启示</h3>
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<p class="mb-4 text-gray-300">概念已从主题炒作进入<strong class="text-green-400">基本面驱动阶段</strong>，逻辑坚实，增长确定性高。但内部环节弹性差异显著，需精挑细选。</p>
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<div class="space-y-3">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-indigo-300">最具投资价值的细分环节:</h4>
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<ul class="list-decimal list-inside text-gray-400 text-sm mt-2 space-y-1">
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<li><strong class="text-fuchsia-400">最高弹性: AI服务器电源(PSU)与HVDC。</strong>受益于技术升级，量价齐升，戴维斯双击潜力巨大。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-sky-400">最强确定性: 高端器件国产替代。</strong>如大功率柴发发动机(潍柴重机)和高压直流断路器(良信股份)，路径清晰。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-lime-400">最具想象空间: 固态变压器(SST)。</strong>对未来能源体系的终极押注，龙头公司(特锐德)任何突破都可能引发重估。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Risks -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 grid-item-6">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-red-400">潜在风险与挑战</h3>
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<ul class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-4 text-sm text-gray-400">
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<li><strong>技术风险:</strong> HVDC生态不成熟（直流保护装置等）可能制约推广速度；SST距大规模商用仍有3-4年，技术和成本是挑战。</li>
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<li><strong>商业化风险:</strong> 需求高度依赖少数云巨头，其资本开支若不及预期将造成巨大冲击；上游原材料价格波动可能侵蚀利润。</li>
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<li><strong>交叉验证风险:</strong> 柴油发电机存在<strong class="text-red-500">“景气周期明确但生命周期存疑”</strong>的矛盾。新闻渲染其盈利弹性，但路演揭示了头部玩家的“去柴发”长期战略。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Data Visualization Section -->
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<section id="visualization">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-8 text-center section-title">细分环节弹性对比 (CAGR 2024-2028)</h2>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
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<div id="cagr-chart" style="width: 100%; height: 400px;"></div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Supporting Data Section -->
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<section id="supporting-data" x-data="{ openTab: 'news' }">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-8 text-center section-title">多维数据源佐证</h2>
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<div class="tabs tabs-boxed justify-center bg-gray-900/50 mb-6">
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<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': openTab === 'news' }" @click.prevent="openTab = 'news'">新闻数据</a>
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<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': openTab === 'roadshow' }" @click.prevent="openTab = 'roadshow'">路演纪要</a>
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<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': openTab === 'research' }" @click.prevent="openTab = 'research'">研报精粹</a>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 min-h-[400px]">
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<!-- News Data -->
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<div x-show="openTab === 'news'" x-transition>
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-violet-300">新闻数据核心提炼</h3>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 text-sm">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-indigo-300 mb-2">直接提及“弹性”</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-300">
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<li><strong>市场与标的：</strong>标题直指“弹性测算”，IDC空置率降低带来“业绩弹性巨大”。</li>
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<li><strong>柴油发电机：</strong>“行业涨价潜在弹性巨大”、“盈利弹性具备想象空间”、“出货量...弹性巨大”。科泰电源被指“业务纯且弹性大”。</li>
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<li><strong>其他：</strong>金盘科技被指“AIDC&机器人可带来估值弹性”；整体供配电标的已在“初步兑现业绩弹性”。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-indigo-300 mb-2">驱动弹性的因素（间接信息）</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-300">
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<li><strong>需求爆发：</strong>阿里、腾讯单季度资本开支大超预期，阿里CEO称“未来三年投入超过去十年总和”。海外GE订单已排至28年。</li>
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<li><strong>供需矛盾：</strong>高端柴发外资产能告罄，国产产能预计25年下半年紧张。全年缺口上修至3000台。</li>
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<li><strong>价格上涨：</strong>柴发招标价同比上涨<strong class="text-amber-400">15%-20%</strong>，燃气轮机价格上涨<strong class="text-amber-400">15%-20%</strong>。产业链进入国产与外资价格齐涨状态。</li>
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<li><strong>技术演进：</strong>华为白皮书强调风冷与液冷的“灵活适配”，液冷方案需具备“高度弹性和稳定性”。供电架构向HVDC、固态变压器演进。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Roadshow Data -->
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<div x-show="openTab === 'roadshow'" x-transition style="display: none;">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-violet-300">路演纪要核心提炼</h3>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 text-sm">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-indigo-300 mb-2">架构与技术路线的弹性</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-300">
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<li><strong>UPS vs HVDC：</strong>传统UPS效率低，模块化设计提升灵活性。HVDC减少转换损耗，效率更高，BAT广泛使用，但存在生态不完善挑战，短期内与UPS共存。</li>
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<li><strong>OCP & BBU方案：</strong>提供更多架构选择。BBU布局更灵活，转换效率高，故障影响小，英伟达、Meta已采用。</li>
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<li><strong>未来技术：</strong>趋势是“高压化、直流化、模块化”。固态变压器(SST)是终极方案，预计<strong class="text-amber-400">3-4年内落地</strong>，体积/重量减半。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-indigo-300 mb-2">应对变化的弹性</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-300">
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<li><strong>适应高功率：</strong>GPU集群功率达百千瓦级，推动电源需求升级。</li>
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<li><strong>绿电接入：</strong>微电网与储能融合，800V母线直连储能，应对新能源并网带来的电能质量波动。</li>
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<li><strong>备用电源方案：</strong>柴发是传统方案但供应瓶颈。微软计划2030年停用，<strong class="text-amber-400">锂电池/超级电容</strong>是替代或补充方案。</li>
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<li><strong>供应链瓶颈：</strong>柴发因需求暴增供不应求，排期至2026年，涨价持续性强。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Research Data -->
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<div x-show="openTab === 'research'" x-transition style="display: none;">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-violet-300">研报精粹核心提炼</h3>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 text-sm">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-indigo-300 mb-2">宏观市场弹性</h4>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-300">
|
||
<li><strong>算力需求爆发：</strong>预计2024-2028年全球AIDC新增装机量<strong class="text-green-400">CAGR高达73%</strong>。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>资本开支放量：</strong>海外云厂25年资本开支或超3100亿美元（同比+30%）；国内厂商Capex同比+119%。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>价值放大：</strong>供配电设备占Capex约10-15%，但容量通常为算力芯片的<strong class="text-amber-400">3-5倍</strong>。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>功率驱动升级：</strong>英伟达GPU功率从A100的400W升至GB200的<strong class="text-amber-400">2700W</strong>，倒逼电源升级。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-indigo-300 mb-2">细分环节高弹性分析</h4>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-300">
|
||
<li><strong>不间断电源：</strong>HVDC成主流，24-28年CAGR 165%。BBU渗透率提升，CAGR 79%。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>服务器电源(PSU)：</strong>高功率需求驱动量利齐升，5.5kW及以上PSU市场<strong class="text-green-400">CAGR高达243%</strong>。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>配变电系统：</strong>AIDC自建变电站成主流。变压器CAGR 71%，开关柜CAGR 69%。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>备用电源：</strong>柴发需求刚性，单机价值量提升，CAGR 43%，叠加国产替代机遇。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock List Section -->
|
||
<section id="stock-list">
|
||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-8 text-center section-title">产业链核心标的</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-3xl p-1">
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra w-full">
|
||
<!-- head -->
|
||
<thead class="text-base text-violet-300">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑</th>
|
||
<th>细分环节</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<!-- UPS/HVDC -->
|
||
<tr><td>中恒电气</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002364" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">002364</a></td><td>提供HVDC（高压直流）产品，契合技术演进方向。</td><td>UPS/HVDC</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>科华数据</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002335" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">002335</a></td><td>传统UPS龙头，提供UPS/HVDC产品，积极转型。</td><td>UPS/HVDC</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>科士达</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002518" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">002518</a></td><td>UPS业务纯粹，行业龙头之一。</td><td>UPS/HVDC</td></tr>
|
||
<!-- Server PSU -->
|
||
<tr><td>欧陆通</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300870" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">300870</a></td><td>提供服务器电源产品，直接受益于服务器功率升级。</td><td>服务器电源</td></tr>
|
||
<!-- Diesel Generator -->
|
||
<tr><td>潍柴重机</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000880" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">000880</a></td><td>核心柴发发动机供应商，国产替代逻辑最纯粹，弹性巨大。</td><td>柴发发动机</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>泰豪科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600590" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">600590</a></td><td>柴油发电机组OEM厂商，受益于行业需求爆发。</td><td>柴发OEM</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>玉柴国际</td><td>N/A</td><td>提供柴发发动机产品，中高端市场国产替代参与者。</td><td>柴发发动机</td></tr>
|
||
<!-- Transformer/Switchgear -->
|
||
<tr><td>金盘科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688676" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">688676</a></td><td>提供变压器/开关柜，受益于AIDC自建变电站。</td><td>变压器/开关柜</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>明阳电气</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301291" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">301291</a></td><td>提供变压器/开关柜，受益于AIDC配电系统扩容。</td><td>变压器/开关柜</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>顺钠股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000533" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">000533</a></td><td>北美AI配电缺口+变压器出海弹性标的。</td><td>变压器/开关柜</td></tr>
|
||
<!-- Breaker -->
|
||
<tr><td>良信股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002706" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">002706</a></td><td>断路器龙头，AIDC断路器国产替代加速，已获北美认证。</td><td>断路器</td></tr>
|
||
<!-- SST -->
|
||
<tr><td>特锐德</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300001" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">300001</a></td><td>全面布局SST（固态变压器），针对下一代供电方案，想象空间大。</td><td>未来技术(SST)</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>四方股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601126" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">601126</a></td><td>SST已挂网运行，与互联网大厂合作开发GW级方案，稀缺现货标的。</td><td>未来技术(SST)</td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
</main>
|
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</div>
|
||
|
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