469 lines
35 KiB
HTML
469 lines
35 KiB
HTML
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>深度行研报告：大厂算力订单</title>
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<div class="container mx-auto max-w-screen-2xl">
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<header class="text-center py-8">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold tracking-tight" style="background: -webkit-linear-gradient(45deg, #7DF9FF, #3C8CE7, #A855F7); -webkit-background-clip: text; -webkit-text-fill-color: transparent;">
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深度行研报告：大厂算力订单
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</h1>
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<p class="mt-4 text-slate-400 text-sm">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现，本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。</p>
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</header>
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<main class="space-y-8">
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<!-- Insight & Core Logic Section -->
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<section class="bento-grid">
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<div class="col-span-12 lg:col-span-8 bento-item glass-card glow-border" style="grid-row: span 2;">
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<h2 class="section-title">概念Insight：全面、深入、多维度综合分析</h2>
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<div class="prose prose-slate prose-invert max-w-none text-slate-300 space-y-4">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-indigo-300">0. 核心观点摘要</h3>
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<p>“大厂算力订单”概念正处于<strong class="text-cyan-400">由预期驱动向量化订单落地的基本面兑现阶段</strong>。其核心驱动力源于大厂AI应用（特别是推理侧）需求的指数级爆发，并通过<strong class="text-cyan-400">资本开支（Capex）上修</strong>和向<strong class="text-cyan-400">“以租代买”模式倾斜</strong>两种路径传导至产业链。未来潜力巨大，但市场需警惕“国产替代”的实际性能差距与供应商“缩圈”带来的结构性风险。</p>
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<div x-data="{ open: false }" class="space-y-2">
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<button @click="open = !open" class="btn btn-outline btn-info btn-sm w-full">
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<span>展开/收起 详细分析</span>
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<svg :class="{'rotate-180': open}" class="w-4 h-4 transition-transform" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M19 9l-7 7-7-7" /></svg>
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</button>
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<div x-show="open" x-collapse.duration.500ms class="space-y-4 pt-4">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-indigo-300">1. 核心催化事件与时间轴</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 space-y-2">
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<li><strong>2024年 (全球资本开支预热):</strong>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 space-y-1 mt-1 text-slate-400">
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<li><strong>Q2-Q3 2024:</strong> 微软、谷歌、Meta、亚马逊等海外巨头披露<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">140亿至190亿美元</strong>单季资本开支，预示全球算力军备竞赛开启。</li>
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<li><strong>2024年下半年:</strong> 国产昇腾芯片开始在大厂进行适配，国产替代进程启动。</li>
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</ul>
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</li>
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<li><strong>2025年 (国内订单潮爆发):</strong>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 space-y-1 mt-1 text-slate-400">
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<li><strong>Q1-Q2 2025:</strong> 阿里巴巴宣布<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">未来三年投入超3800亿元</strong>；腾讯单季度资本开支同比<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">增长386%</strong>；算力租赁模式成为主流，数十亿级合同密集公告。</li>
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<li><strong>Q3 2025:</strong> 字节、阿里启动数据中心招标；市场预期英伟达<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">B30/Blackwell</strong>新芯片订单落地。</li>
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</ul>
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</li>
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</ul>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-indigo-300">2. 核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 space-y-2">
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<li><strong>核心驱动力：应用驱动的需求爆发与战略卡位</strong>
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<p class="text-slate-400">根本源于AI大模型的技术突破。以字节跳动为例，核心业务日均token消耗量在2024年内实现<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">10倍</strong>扩展，预计到2026年6月再增<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">10倍</strong>。推理需求成为主战场，腾讯微信全量接入AI后推理卡需求预估达<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">10万张</strong>。</p>
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</li>
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<li><strong>市场热度与情绪：高度乐观，聚焦订单兑现</strong>
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<p class="text-slate-400">“订单潮”、“密集招标”等高频词汇显示市场情绪普遍高度乐观。关注焦点已从宏观叙事转移到具体的订单金额、交付能力和业绩弹性上。</p>
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</li>
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<li><strong>预期差分析：共识与潜在盲点</strong>
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<ol class="list-decimal pl-5 space-y-1 mt-1 text-slate-400">
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<li><strong>国产芯片的“战略价值” vs “性能价值”:</strong> 市场可能高估了国产芯片短期内的直接替代能力，其当前核心价值是“二供或三供的战略意义”。</li>
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<li><strong>资本开支的“宏大叙事” vs “结构性投入”:</strong> 庞大Capex中包含大量非算力芯片支出，市场可能对纯GPU/服务器订单占比过于乐观。</li>
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<li><strong>供应商的“普惠” vs “缩圈”:</strong> 订单将向头部、已证明交付能力的公司集中，尾部供应商可能“雷声大雨点小”。</li>
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</ol>
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</li>
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</ul>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-indigo-300">3. 关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 space-y-2">
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<li><strong>近期催化剂 (未来3-6个月):</strong> 英伟达<strong class="text-cyan-400">B30/Blackwell订单落地</strong>；字节、阿里等<strong class="text-cyan-400">密集招标结果公布</strong>；算力租赁价格持续上涨（Q2相比Q1已<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">上涨50%以上</strong>）。</li>
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<li><strong>长期发展路径:</strong> 算力结构从训练向<strong class="text-cyan-400">推理</strong>变迁；<strong class="text-cyan-400">国产芯片生态</strong>逐步成熟；云与租赁深度融合形成大厂主导的成熟生态。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-indigo-300">4. 产业链与核心公司深度剖析</h3>
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<p>产业链涵盖上游核心硬件（NVIDIA、寒武纪、浪潮信息）、中游基础设施与服务（润泽科技、蓝耘科技、海南华铁）及下游需求方（阿里、字节、腾讯等）。核心玩家中，<strong class="text-cyan-400">算力租赁服务商</strong>（蓝耘科技、海南华铁）是本轮逻辑中<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">最纯粹、弹性最大的环节</strong>。而<strong class="text-cyan-400">浪潮信息</strong>（绑定阿里）和<strong class="text-cyan-400">拓维信息</strong>（绑定昇腾）分别代表了存量巨头份额和国产增量份额的核心受益者。</p>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-indigo-300">5. 潜在风险与挑战</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 space-y-2 text-slate-400">
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<li><strong>技术风险:</strong> 国产AI芯片与NVIDIA存在性能代差，是制约其进入核心业务的最大瓶颈。</li>
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<li><strong>商业化风险:</strong> AI投入能否顺利转化为商业回报存在不确定性，可能导致未来资本开支增速放缓。</li>
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<li><strong>政策与竞争风险:</strong> 外部芯片出口管制和内部算力租赁市场价格战。</li>
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<li><strong>信息交叉验证风险:</strong> 存在关于<strong class="text-amber-400">资本开支增速回落</strong>的矛盾信息，以及市场对国产芯片的热情与产业实际性能评价之间的<strong class="text-amber-400">鸿沟</strong>。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-indigo-300">6. 综合结论与投资启示</h3>
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<p>“大厂算力订单”概念已进入<strong class="text-cyan-400">由基本面驱动的业绩兑现期</strong>。最具投资价值的细分环节依次为：<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">1. 算力租赁服务商</strong>（业绩弹性最大）；<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">2. 绑定大厂的核心硬件供应商</strong>（确定性最强）；<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">3. 国产AI芯片</strong>（长期战略配置）。需重点跟踪大厂季度Capex、租赁商新增订单、主流芯片价格及国产芯片渗透率等关键指标。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="col-span-12 lg:col-span-4 bento-item glass-card glow-border">
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<h2 class="section-title">大厂资本开支概览</h2>
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<div id="capexChart" class="w-full h-96"></div>
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</div>
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<div class="col-span-12 lg:col-span-4 bento-item glass-card glow-border">
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<h2 class="section-title">核心新闻摘要</h2>
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<div class="max-h-[28rem] overflow-y-auto pr-2 space-y-3">
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
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<input type="radio" name="news-accordion" checked="checked" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-lg font-medium">需求规模与增长</div>
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<div class="collapse-content">
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<p class="text-slate-300">字节跳动抖音业务日均token消耗从年初<strong class="text-cyan-400">两三千张卡</strong>需求增至<strong class="text-cyan-400">3.5万张</strong>，实现10倍扩展。预计到2026年6月将再增10倍，对应显卡规模需扩展到<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">34万至40万张</strong>。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
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<input type="radio" name="news-accordion" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-lg font-medium">资本开支（Capex）</div>
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<div class="collapse-content">
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<p class="text-slate-300">阿里宣布<strong class="text-cyan-400">3年3800亿</strong>投入云和AI基础设施。字节计划斥资<strong class="text-cyan-400">70亿美元</strong>购买英伟达芯片。海外亚马逊拿下OpenAI <strong class="text-cyan-400">380亿</strong>算力订单，Oracle云订单暴涨。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
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<input type="radio" name="news-accordion" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-lg font-medium">硬件采购与芯片选择</div>
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<div class="collapse-content">
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<p class="text-slate-300">主流使用英伟达L20，下半年将引入580。国内大厂对B30/Blackwell<strong class="text-cyan-400">购买意愿均强</strong>，最快三季度下订单。国产芯片（寒武纪/昇腾）适配中，但效果不佳，主要用于非核心计算负载，作为<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">战略备货</strong>。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
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<input type="radio" name="news-accordion" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-lg font-medium">订单与招标</div>
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<div class="collapse-content">
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<p class="text-slate-300">大厂开启密集招标，字节（7.30）、阿里（8.1）启动。算力租赁成主流，宏景科技、海南华铁等公告<strong class="text-cyan-400">数十亿</strong>大额订单。租赁价格比Q1<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">上涨50%以上</strong>。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
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<input type="radio" name="news-accordion" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-lg font-medium">市场趋势</div>
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<div class="collapse-content">
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<p class="text-slate-300">订单潮刚刚开始，后续订单催化密集。供应商选择出现<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">“缩圈”</strong>趋势，倾向于能稳定且较快到货的供应商，之前表现优异者更受青睐。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Roadshow & Reports Section -->
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<section class="bento-grid">
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<div class="col-span-12 md:col-span-6 bento-item glass-card glow-border">
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<h2 class="section-title">路演核心纪要</h2>
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<div class="max-h-96 overflow-y-auto pr-2 space-y-3">
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<div tabindex="0" class="collapse collapse-arrow glass-card">
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<div class="collapse-title text-lg font-medium">全球巨头Capex</div>
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<div class="collapse-content">
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<p>海外四巨头（微软、亚马逊、谷歌、Meta）合计Capex年化规模可能达<strong class="text-cyan-400">2000亿美元/年</strong>。微软Q3 Capex <strong class="text-fuchsia-400">140亿</strong>美元，谷歌<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">120亿</strong>，均超预期，并预计连续大幅增加。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div tabindex="0" class="collapse collapse-arrow glass-card">
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<div class="collapse-title text-lg font-medium">国内大厂采购细节</div>
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<div class="collapse-content">
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<p>字节2024年采购超<strong class="text-cyan-400">20万张H20</strong>、<strong class="text-cyan-400">4-5万张L20</strong>，服务器预算<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">850-880亿元</strong>。腾讯微信全量接入推理卡需求达<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">10万张</strong>。阿里未来三年<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">超3800亿</strong>开支。单一大厂采购规模近<strong class="text-cyan-400">300亿元</strong>。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div tabindex="0" class="collapse collapse-arrow glass-card">
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<div class="collapse-title text-lg font-medium">国产算力进展</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<p>寒武纪2024年交付义务：字节<strong class="text-cyan-400">15万颗MLU590</strong>，阿里<strong class="text-cyan-400">5-6万颗</strong>。大厂将供应商<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">缩圈至2-3家</strong>核心供应商，注重交付能力。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="col-span-12 md:col-span-6 bento-item glass-card glow-border">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">研报核心观点</h2>
|
||
<div class="max-h-96 overflow-y-auto pr-2 space-y-3">
|
||
<div tabindex="0" class="collapse collapse-arrow glass-card">
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-lg font-medium">大厂资本开支扩张</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<p>阿里2024Q4资本开支<strong class="text-cyan-400">317.75亿元</strong>，同比<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">+259%</strong>。腾讯2024Q4资本开支<strong class="text-cyan-400">365.78亿元</strong>，同比<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">+386%</strong>。研报认为互联网厂加单预期或<strong class="text-cyan-400">持续兑现</strong>。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div tabindex="0" class="collapse collapse-arrow glass-card">
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-lg font-medium">算力租赁订单持续落地</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<p>重资产投入模式对现金流产生压力，部分算力需求转向算力租赁公司。中贝通信为金山云、阶跃星辰等提供服务；润建股份与<strong class="text-cyan-400">阿里云</strong>签署合作协议，投资2500P算力服务器。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div tabindex="0" class="collapse collapse-arrow glass-card">
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-lg font-medium">硬件市场格局</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<p>2023年全球服务器GPU市场，<strong class="text-cyan-400">英伟达占95.9%</strong>。国产芯片（华为昇腾910B、百度昆仑芯II等）性能提升，大厂逐步转向国产芯片采购，进入供应链。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Tables Section -->
|
||
<section class="space-y-8">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">相关个股列表 (订单金额排序)</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-2xl p-4">
|
||
<table class="table daisy-table w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑</th>
|
||
<th>标签</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>蓝耘科技</td><td>新三板</td><td>2025年37亿算力订单（2025年算力订单金额第一）</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary">新三板</div> <div class="badge badge-secondary">核心公司</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>海南华铁</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603300" target="_blank" class="link link-info">603300</a></td><td>2025年36.9亿算力订单（2025年算力订单金额第二）；累积订单61亿</td><td><div class="badge badge-error">涨幅大于10%</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>超讯通信</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603322" target="_blank" class="link link-info">603322</a></td><td>2025年6.38亿算力订单；累积订单14.88亿</td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>莲花控股</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600186" target="_blank" class="link link-info">600186</a></td><td>2025年4.96亿算力订单；累积订单超15亿</td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>城地香江</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603887" target="_blank" class="link link-info">603887</a></td><td>2025年3.91亿算力订单；子公司中标44.52亿算力联合体项目</td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>宏景科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301396" target="_blank" class="link link-info">301396</a></td><td>2025年1.61亿算力订单；累积订单超15亿（客户含阿里、小米）</td><td><div class="badge badge-error">涨幅大于10%</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>平治信息</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300571" target="_blank" class="link link-info">300571</a></td><td>2025年1.1亿算力订单</td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>浙文互联</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600986" target="_blank" class="link link-info">600986</a></td><td>与蓝耘科技设立合资智算公司 (持股50%)</td><td><div class="badge badge-accent">蓝耘科技相关</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>杭钢股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600126" target="_blank" class="link link-info">600126</a></td><td>与蓝耘科技设立合资智算公司</td><td><div class="badge badge-accent">蓝耘科技相关</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>中科曙光</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603019" target="_blank" class="link link-info">603019</a></td><td>通过子公司曙光数创间接持有蓝耘科技股份</td><td><div class="badge badge-accent">蓝耘科技相关</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>京源环保</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688096" target="_blank" class="link link-info">688096</a></td><td>与蓝耘科技签署算力基础设施建设战略合作</td><td><div class="badge badge-accent">蓝耘科技相关</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>元道通信</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301139" target="_blank" class="link link-info">301139</a></td><td>网传公司拿下阿里服务器招标项目</td><td><div class="badge badge-error">涨幅大于10%</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>协创数据</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300857" target="_blank" class="link link-info">300857</a></td><td>公告大额服务器采购</td><td><div class="badge badge-error">涨幅大于10%</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>润建股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002929" target="_blank" class="link link-info">002929</a></td><td>与阿里云签署合作协议，投资建设算力</td><td></td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">涨停/异动个股深度解析</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-2xl p-4">
|
||
<table class="table daisy-table w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>异动日期</th>
|
||
<th>涨幅</th>
|
||
<th>核心结论及驱动逻辑</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>浪潮信息</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000977" target="_blank" class="link link-info">000977</a></td><td>2025-09-25</td><td><div class="badge badge-success">+9.99%</div></td><td>阿里3800亿AI基建官宣，公司为服务器第一顺位核心供应商，新增订单弹性巨大。驱动概念：阿里AI基建+国产算力。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>拓维信息</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002261" target="_blank" class="link link-info">002261</a></td><td>2025-08-26</td><td><div class="badge badge-success">+10.0%</div></td><td>半年报业绩暴增22倍，昇腾AI算力订单集中确认与政策共振。驱动概念：昇腾AI算力+东数西算。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>华胜天成</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600410" target="_blank" class="link link-info">600410</a></td><td>2025-07-24</td><td><div class="badge badge-success">+9.97%</div></td><td>“工信部算力新政 + 4.7亿元国家算力调度平台订单”双击。驱动概念：国家算力调度平台+国产异构算力。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>恒润股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603985" target="_blank" class="link link-info">603985</a></td><td>2025-09-23</td><td><div class="badge badge-success">+9.98%</div></td><td>2700亿国家算力项目“星际之门”股权落地，锁定4.2万P算力订单。驱动概念：东数西算+星际之门。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>工业富联</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601138" target="_blank" class="link link-info">601138</a></td><td>2025-07-03</td><td><div class="badge badge-success">+10.02%</div></td><td>英伟达GB300最大代工订单+OpenAI追加IDC分包确认。驱动概念：AI服务器+算力IDC。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>欧陆通</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300870" target="_blank" class="link link-info">300870</a></td><td>2025-07-15</td><td><div class="badge badge-success">+9.26%</div></td><td>受益H20芯片放开预期，大厂数据中心招标启动，公司为服务器电源核心标的。驱动概念：国产算力+液冷服务器。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>通富微电</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002156" target="_blank" class="link link-info">002156</a></td><td>2025-10-09</td><td><div class="badge badge-success">+10.01%</div></td><td>OpenAI-AMD 6GW算力订单落地，公司为AMD国内最大封测伙伴，直接锁定约40亿美元新增订单。驱动概念：AMD+2.5D封装。</td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<footer class="text-center py-8 mt-8 border-t border-slate-800">
|
||
<p class="text-slate-500 text-xs">免责声明：本报告由AI生成，内容基于公开数据分析，不构成任何投资建议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。</p>
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