413 lines
29 KiB
HTML
413 lines
29 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>概念深度研究：酒</title>
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@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Noto+Sans+SC:wght@300;400;500;700&family=Orbitron:wght@400;700&display=swap');
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font-family: 'Noto Sans SC', sans-serif;
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background-color: #020010;
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overflow-y: scroll;
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backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
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-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
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border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
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border-radius: 1.5rem; /* 极致圆角 */
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<body class="text-gray-200 min-h-screen">
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<div class="turrell-glow-bg"></div>
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="glass-card p-6 mb-8 text-center sticky top-4 z-50">
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<h1 class="text-3xl md:text-5xl font-orbitron font-bold text-white glow-text tracking-widest">
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概念深度研究：酒
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</h1>
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<p class="mt-2 text-cyan-300 text-sm">
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北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研”
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</p>
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</header>
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<main class="space-y-8">
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<!-- Insight Section -->
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<section id="insight" class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="section-title font-orbitron text-white mb-6 border-b-2 border-cyan-400/30 pb-3">
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<span class="glow-text">AI Insight</span>
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</h2>
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<div class="space-y-8 text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">
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<article>
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<h3 class="sub-title text-cyan-300 mb-3">0. 概念事件：行业调整与结构性分化</h3>
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<p>“酒”概念在分析期内（主要覆盖2023年至2025年展望）的核心叙事是<strong class="text-white">行业调整与结构性分化</strong>。其背景是宏观经济承压下消费需求的疲软与消费习惯的变迁。行业正处于一个<strong class="text-white">深度调整与结构性分化的“后增长”时代</strong>。其核心驱动力已从过去普涨式的消费升级，转变为<strong class="text-white">品牌力、渠道力与产品结构</strong>三位一体的综合竞争。</p>
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</article>
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<article>
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<h3 class="sub-title text-cyan-300 mb-3">1. 核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2">
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<li><strong>消费分层 (K型分化):</strong> 当前最核心的逻辑。高端市场因社交属性需求相对刚性；大众消费市场则追求“极致性价比”，高品质光瓶酒（如<span class="text-amber-300 font-semibold">沱牌T68增速近三倍</span>）需求旺盛。</li>
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<li><strong>品牌与产区价值:</strong> 存量竞争时代，产业向“名酒产区、名酒企业、名酒品牌”集中。品牌渊源（如<span class="text-amber-300 font-semibold">珍酒的“茅台异地工程”</span>）成为核心护城河。</li>
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<li><strong>渠道变革与效率:</strong> 传统分销模式受挑战。<span class="text-amber-300 font-semibold">酒鬼酒与胖东来合作</span>是直达高流量终端的典范；武陵酒的“短链直连终端”模式在库存压力下具备巨大优势。</li>
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</ul>
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</article>
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<article>
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<h3 class="sub-title text-cyan-300 mb-3">2. 预期差分析</h3>
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<p class="mb-2">市场情绪处于<strong class="text-white">博弈阶段</strong>，一方面承认行业基本面压力，另一方面积极寻找结构性机会和反转信号。</p>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2">
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<li><strong>高端化叙事 vs 大众化现实:</strong> 市场长期聚焦“消费升级”，但当前增长最快的反而是<strong class="text-white">200元以下</strong>价格带。市场可能低估了大众消费市场的韧性。</li>
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<li><strong>行业“筑底” vs 个体分化:</strong> 市场笼统谈论“行业筑底”，但各公司基本面差异巨大。老白干酒业绩稳健增长(<span class="text-green-400 font-semibold">+40.25%</span>)，而酒鬼酒、舍得酒业仍处深度调整。</li>
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<li><strong>传统渠道 vs 新渠道潜力:</strong> 市场对传统渠道困境有认知，但可能未充分定价新渠道潜力。<span class="text-amber-300 font-semibold">酒鬼酒与胖东来合作预计单品年营收可达10亿元</span>，示范效应可能被低估。</li>
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</ul>
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</article>
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<article>
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<h3 class="sub-title text-cyan-300 mb-3">3. 关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h3>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div>
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<h4 class="text-lg text-white font-semibold mb-2">近期催化剂 (未来3-6个月)</h4>
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<ul class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-1">
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<li>酒鬼酒-胖东来联名产品上市表现 (预计7月中下旬)。</li>
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<li>中秋国庆旺季动销数据。</li>
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<li>二、三线酒企业绩降幅是否收窄。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="text-lg text-white font-semibold mb-2">长期发展路径</h4>
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<ul class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-1">
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<li><strong>格局重塑 (当前-2025):</strong> 去库存，出清过剩产能，企业分化加剧。</li>
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<li><strong>多元化探索 (2025-2027):</strong> 低度酒、果酒等创新品类，及“酒+文旅”模式。</li>
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<li><strong>成熟与稳定 (2027-):</strong> 寡头垄断，科技赋能成为核心竞争力。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</article>
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<article>
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<h3 class="sub-title text-cyan-300 mb-3">4. 核心公司深度剖析</h3>
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<div class="tabs tabs-bordered">
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<input type="radio" name="my_tabs_1" role="tab" class="tab" aria-label="领导者" checked/>
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<div role="tabpanel" class="tab-content p-4">
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<strong class="text-white">老白干酒:</strong> 区域龙头防御逻辑的典范。河北根据地市场稳固，子公司<span class="text-amber-300 font-semibold">武陵酒毛利率高达81%</span>，是高端化增长引擎，业绩已验证。
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</div>
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<input type="radio" name="my_tabs_1" role="tab" class="tab" aria-label="变革者" />
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<div role="tabpanel" class="tab-content p-4">
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<strong class="text-white">舍得酒业:</strong> “老酒”战略优势突出，但面临次高端激烈竞争。增长点在于<span class="text-amber-300 font-semibold">大众市场的沱牌T68放量</span>，逻辑正在经历压力测试。<br>
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<strong class="text-white">酒鬼酒:</strong> 最具“困境反转”潜力的标的。看点在于<span class="text-amber-300 font-semibold">新任总经理程军</span>的改革能力及与<span class="text-amber-300 font-semibold">胖东来</span>合作的成效。风险高，弹性大。<br>
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<strong class="text-white">珍酒李渡:</strong> “产能+多品牌”逻辑代表。核心看点是<span class="text-amber-300 font-semibold">2024年起全面使用自产基酒</span>带来的毛利率提升。
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</div>
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<input type="radio" name="my_tabs_1" role="tab" class="tab" aria-label="跨界者" />
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<div role="tabpanel" class="tab-content p-4">
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<strong class="text-white">华润啤酒:</strong> “啤+白”双赋能战略独特。核心逻辑是通过啤酒渠道赋能金沙酒业。白酒业务能否成为“第二曲线”尚需时间验证，存在商誉减值风险。
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</div>
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</div>
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</article>
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<article>
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<h3 class="sub-title text-cyan-300 mb-3">5. 综合结论与投资启示</h3>
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<p class="mb-2">酒概念告别“躺赢”时代，进入<strong class="text-white">由基本面驱动的结构性分化阶段</strong>。投资逻辑从押注赛道转向精选个股。</p>
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<div class="stats stats-vertical lg:stats-horizontal shadow w-full bg-transparent border border-white/10">
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<div class="stat">
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<div class="stat-title text-cyan-400">最具价值方向</div>
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<div class="stat-value text-xl text-white">区域龙头(防御性)</div>
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<div class="stat-desc">如: 老白干酒、金徽酒</div>
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</div>
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<div class="stat">
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<div class="stat-title text-cyan-400">最具价值方向</div>
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<div class="stat-value text-xl text-white">新消费趋势(成长性)</div>
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<div class="stat-desc">低度酒、果酒、鸡尾酒</div>
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</div>
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<div class="stat">
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<div class="stat-title text-cyan-400">最具价值方向</div>
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<div class="stat-value text-xl text-white">困境反转(高弹性)</div>
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<div class="stat-desc">如: 酒鬼酒</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<p class="mt-4"><strong>需重点跟踪指标:</strong> 核心单品批价、渠道库存周转天数、销售费用率、合同负债（预收账款）。</p>
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</article>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Data Visualization & Key Evidence -->
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<section id="data_and_evidence" class="bento-grid">
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-lg-4 glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h3 class="sub-title text-cyan-300 mb-3">关键酒企业绩分化 (YOY)</h3>
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<div id="company-performance-chart" style="width: 100%; height: 400px;"></div>
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</div>
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-lg-2 glass-card p-6 md:p-8" x-data="{ tab: 'news' }">
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<h3 class="sub-title text-cyan-300 mb-4">核心数据摘要</h3>
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<div class="tabs tabs-boxed bg-black/20">
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<a class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'news'}" @click="tab = 'news'">新闻</a>
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<a class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'roadshow'}" @click="tab = 'roadshow'">路演</a>
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<a class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'report'}" @click="tab = 'report'">研报</a>
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</div>
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<div class="mt-4 text-sm space-y-2 leading-relaxed">
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<div x-show="tab === 'news'">
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2">
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<li><strong>舍得酒业:</strong> 25Q1营收同比<span class="text-red-400">-25.1%</span>，净利<span class="text-red-400">-37.1%</span>。Q1去库为先，报表端仍处调整期。</li>
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<li><strong>酒鬼酒:</strong> 24H1净利同比<span class="text-red-400">-71.32%</span>。与胖东来合作打造“自由爱”单品，被视为新增长极。</li>
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<li><strong>老白干酒:</strong> 24H1净利同比<span class="text-green-400">+40.25%</span>，区域龙头展现韧性。</li>
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<li><strong>行业政策:</strong> 市场监管总局严禁制售“特供酒”；新规要求“工作餐不得上酒”，对情绪造成冲击。</li>
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<li><strong>行业呼声:</strong> 中国酒业协会呼吁酒企主动调低预期，聚焦“极致性价比产品”。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'roadshow'">
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2">
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<li><strong>老白干酒:</strong> 河北地产龙头，旗下武陵酒毛利率<span class="text-green-400">高达80%</span>，定位高端化增长引擎。</li>
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<li><strong>金徽酒:</strong> 陇酒龙头，100元以上产品占比超60%。省外与西凤酒错位竞争。</li>
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<li><strong>珍酒李渡:</strong> 酱酒核心壁垒是产能，珍酒<span class="text-amber-300">3.5万吨</span>产能（贵州第三）。24年起用自产基酒，毛利率有望提升。</li>
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<li><strong>舍得酒业:</strong> 沱牌T68（光瓶酒）增速<span class="text-green-400">接近三倍</span>；舍之道（宴席）增长<span class="text-green-400">超40%</span>，验证大众市场需求。</li>
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<li><strong>酒鬼酒:</strong> 战略从“顺周期”转向“真实动销驱动”，渠道库存处于合理水平。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'report'">
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2">
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<li><strong>行业规模:</strong> 2024年底国内酒类流通市场规模近<span class="text-amber-300">2万亿元</span>，白酒市占率<span class="text-amber-300">65%-68%</span>。</li>
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<li><strong>增长预测:</strong> 酱香型白酒份额有望<span class="text-green-400">突破40%</span>；精酿啤酒年复合增长率<span class="text-green-400">保持18%</span>高位。</li>
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<li><strong>消费趋势:</strong> Z世代推动低度酒、鸡尾酒增长；女性消费者比例上升；健康化趋势明显（低糖、无添加）。</li>
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<li><strong>华润啤酒:</strong> “啤+白”联动是核心战略。23年喜力品牌销量<span class="text-green-400">增长近60%</span>；金沙摘要白酒销量24年<span class="text-green-400">同比增长35%</span>。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Stocks Table -->
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<section id="stocks" class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="section-title font-orbitron text-white mb-6 border-b-2 border-cyan-400/30 pb-3">
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<span class="glow-text">核心概念股</span>
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</h2>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="table table-zebra-zebra w-full text-base">
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<thead>
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<tr class="text-white">
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<th class="text-lg">分类</th>
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<th class="text-lg">股票名称</th>
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<th class="text-lg">标签</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<!-- 白酒 -->
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<tr><td colspan="3" class="text-cyan-300 font-bold text-lg bg-white/5">白酒</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>高端</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600519" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">贵州茅台 (600519)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>高端</td><td><a href="#" class="hover:text-cyan-400">五粮液</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>次高端</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600809" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">山西汾酒 (600809)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>次高端</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000568" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">泸州老窖 (000568)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>次高端</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000596" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">古井贡酒 (000596)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>次高端</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600702" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">舍得酒业 (600702)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>次高端</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603198" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">迎驾贡酒 (603198)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>次高端</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600779" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">水井坊 (600779)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>次高端</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002304" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">洋河股份 (002304)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>次高端</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603369" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">今世缘 (603369)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>次高端</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000799" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">酒鬼酒 (000799)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>次高端</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603589" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">口子窖 (603589)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>平价</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000860" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">顺鑫农业 (000860)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>平价</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603025" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">大豪科技 (603025)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>地方酒</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600559" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">老白干酒 (600559)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>地方酒</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600197" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">伊力特 (600197)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>地方酒</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603919" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">金徽酒 (603919)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>其他</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600199" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">金种子酒 (600199)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>其他</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000995" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">皇台酒业 (000995)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>其他</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002646" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">天佑德酒 (002646)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 啤酒 -->
|
||
<tr><td colspan="3" class="text-cyan-300 font-bold text-lg bg-white/5">啤酒</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>产品</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600600" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">青岛啤酒 (600600)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>产品</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600132" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">重庆啤酒 (600132)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>产品</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000729" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">燕京啤酒 (000729)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>产品</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002461" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">珠江啤酒 (002461)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>产品</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600573" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">惠泉啤酒 (600573)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>其他(原料)</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=001338" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">永顺泰 (001338)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>其他(设备)</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603076" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">乐惠国际 (603076)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 黄酒 -->
|
||
<tr><td colspan="3" class="text-cyan-300 font-bold text-lg bg-white/5">黄酒</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td></td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601579" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">会稽山 (601579)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td></td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600059" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">古越龙山 (600059)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td></td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600616" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">金枫酒业 (600616)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 葡萄酒 -->
|
||
<tr><td colspan="3" class="text-cyan-300 font-bold text-lg bg-white/5">葡萄酒</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td></td><td><a href="#" class="hover:text-cyan-400">张裕A</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td></td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603779" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">威龙股份 (603779)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td></td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600084" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">中信尼雅 (600084)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 鸡尾酒 -->
|
||
<tr><td colspan="3" class="text-cyan-300 font-bold text-lg bg-white/5">鸡尾酒</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td></td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002568" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">百润股份 (002568)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 销售 -->
|
||
<tr><td colspan="3" class="text-cyan-300 font-bold text-lg bg-white/5">销售</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td></td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300755" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">华致酒行 (300755)</a></td><td></td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Footer -->
|
||
<footer class="mt-8 text-center text-xs text-gray-500 glass-card p-4">
|
||
<p>本报告由北京价值前沿科技有限公司AI投研agent“价小前投研”合成呈现。</p>
|
||
<p>本报告为AI合成数据，不构成任何投资建议，投资需谨慎。</p>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
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|
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|
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</html> |