464 lines
32 KiB
HTML
464 lines
32 KiB
HTML
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<title>小米YU7供应链弹性测算 - 深度研报</title>
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<body class="text-gray-300">
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
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<header class="text-center py-12">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold text-white title-glow tracking-widest">小米YU7供应链弹性测算</h1>
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<p class="mt-4 text-lg text-blue-200 text-glow">深度行研报告</p>
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<div class="disclaimer text-xs text-blue-300 p-2 mt-6 rounded-lg inline-block">
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北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现，本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。
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</div>
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</header>
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<main class="space-y-12">
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<!-- 概念事件 -->
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<section class="glass-card p-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-white mb-4 title-glow">概念事件：引爆点</h2>
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<p class="text-blue-200 mb-6">“小米YU7供应链弹性测算”概念的核心是量化分析小米第二款车型YU7的巨大市场成功对其上游供应商所能带来的业绩增量。这一概念由一系列紧密衔接的事件催生并引爆：</p>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div class="p-6 bg-black/20 rounded-2xl border border-blue-900/50">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-white">预热与预期</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-1">2025年5月-6月初</p>
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<p class="mt-3 text-sm">市场提前获知YU7发布，券商开始点名潜在受益标的。小米官方于6月3日表示“正在为大规模量产做准备”，拉高市场预期。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-6 bg-black/20 rounded-2xl border border-purple-900/50 transform md:scale-105 shadow-2xl shadow-purple-500/10">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-white">发布与引爆</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-1">2025年6月26-27日</p>
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<p class="mt-3 text-sm">YU7正式发布，市场反应空前。新闻确认“<span class="font-bold text-purple-300">1小时大定突破289,000台</span>”，远超市场预期，是SU7同期的三倍以上。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-6 bg-black/20 rounded-2xl border border-blue-900/50">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-white">市场聚焦与量化</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-1">2025年6月27日后</p>
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<p class="mt-3 text-sm">爆炸性订单使市场焦点转向供应链承接能力。“弹性测算”分析框架诞生，市场开始逐一量化各供应商的单车价值量及业绩弹性。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 核心观点 & 订单对比图 -->
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<section class="grid md:grid-cols-5 gap-6">
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<div class="md:col-span-2 glass-card p-8 flex flex-col justify-center">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-white mb-4 title-glow">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<p class="text-blue-200">小米YU7空前的成功将需求端的确定性推向极致，其核心投资逻辑已从对产品力的博弈转向对其<span class="text-white font-semibold">供应链产能释放速度与弹性的验证</span>。</p>
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<p class="mt-4 text-blue-200">当前最大的投资机会在于那些对小米业务占比较高、业绩弹性巨大的“纯正”供应商，而核心风险则完全聚焦于小米的<span class="text-white font-semibold">产能爬坡速度能否匹配其订单增速</span>。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="md:col-span-3 glass-card p-6">
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<div id="order-comparison-chart" class="w-full h-80"></div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 核心逻辑与市场认知 -->
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<section>
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-white mb-6 text-center title-glow">核心逻辑与市场认知</h2>
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-5 glass-card p-8">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-white mb-3">核心驱动力：需求与供给的张力</h3>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-4 text-sm">
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<div class="bg-black/20 p-4 rounded-xl">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-300">1. 需求端的“核爆”</h4>
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<p class="mt-2 text-gray-400">1小时28.9万台的大定数据，将YU7的需求从“预期”变为“事实”，为整个供应链提供了极其明确且庞大的增量订单。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-black/20 p-4 rounded-xl">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-300">2. 供给端的“爬坡”</h4>
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<p class="mt-2 text-gray-400">清晰的产能扩张路径（一、二、三期工厂），研报预测至2026年，一二期峰值产能合计可达60万辆，为市场提供了测算收入的“锚”。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-black/20 p-4 rounded-xl">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-300">3. 业绩的“弹性”</h4>
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<p class="mt-2 text-gray-400">对部分中小市值供应商，小米订单是决定性的。如<span class="text-white">无锡振华</span>，收入占比有望从20%提升至40%，是驱动其股价的核心。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-4 glass-card p-8">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-white mb-3">市场热度与情绪</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-blue-200">市场热度极高，已进入精细化研究阶段。情绪整体<span class="text-green-400">极为乐观</span>，但夹杂着对<span class="text-yellow-400">产能的焦虑</span>。用户调研显示，若交付周期恶化，<span class="font-bold text-white">55.1%</span>的用户会考虑其他车型，构成主要分歧点。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-2 glass-card p-8">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-white mb-3">预期差：真伪弹性</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-blue-200">高阶认知在于识别“真弹性”。例如德赛西威单车价值量(1.6万元)虽高，但其体量巨大，收入弹性(23%)反而不如单车价值量(8千元)的渤海汽车(36%)。市场可能高估了单车价值，而低估了“<span class="text-white font-semibold">收入占比</span>”这一核心弹性指标。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-3 glass-card p-8">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-white mb-3">预期差：交付与现实</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-blue-200">小米官方宣称“最快速度交付”，但研报数据显示平均交付周期长达<span class="text-white font-semibold">25周</span>。市场可能过于相信小米的“互联网速度”，而忽略了汽车制造业产能爬坡的客观规律。销量预测也存在<span class="text-white font-semibold">40万至80万辆</span>的巨大分歧。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 催化剂与发展路径 -->
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<section class="glass-card p-8">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-white mb-8 text-center title-glow">关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h2>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-white mb-4">近期催化剂 (3-6个月)</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-blue-200 text-sm">
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-cyan-400 mr-2 mt-1">▶</span><div><strong class="text-white">月度交付数据公布：</strong>验证产能爬坡速度最直接、最高频的指标。</div></li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-cyan-400 mr-2 mt-1">▶</span><div><strong class="text-white">二期工厂投产进度：</strong>预计2025年7-8月投产，任何顺利消息将极大缓解产能焦虑。</div></li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-cyan-400 mr-2 mt-1">▶</span><div><strong class="text-white">核心供应商季度财报：</strong>对“弹性测算”的首次官方验证。</div></li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-cyan-400 mr-2 mt-1">▶</span><div><strong class="text-white">第三款车型信息披露：</strong>或引入增量供应商（如增程器），开启新炒作周期。</div></li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-white mb-4">长期发展路径</h3>
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<div class="timeline">
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-white">产能验证期 (2025-2026)</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-blue-200 mt-1">完成一、二期工厂60万辆产能的满产满销，将YU7订单有效转化为收入，供应链核心公司完成第一轮业绩兑现。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-white">平台化扩张期 (2026-2027)</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-blue-200 mt-1">三期工厂投产，总产能向百万辆迈进。基于昆仑平台的后续车型发布，供应链体系进一步扩大和深化。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-white">全球化与智能化深化期 (2027+)</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-blue-200 mt-1">小米汽车出海，供应链随之全球化。NVIDIA Thor等高算力平台普及，智能化零部件价值量持续提升。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 产业链与核心公司 -->
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<section class="glass-card p-8">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-white mb-8 text-center title-glow">产业链与核心公司深度剖析</h2>
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<div x-data="{ tab: 'elasticity' }">
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<div class="tabs tabs-boxed justify-center bg-black/20 mb-6">
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<a class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'elasticity'}" @click="tab = 'elasticity'">高弹性领导者</a>
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<a class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'value'}" @click="tab = 'value'">高价值战略伙伴</a>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'elasticity'" class="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div class="bg-black/20 p-6 rounded-xl border border-blue-900/50">
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<h4 class="text-lg font-bold text-white">无锡振华</h4>
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<p class="text-xs text-blue-400">车身冲压件</p>
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<p class="mt-3 text-sm text-blue-200"><strong class="text-white">逻辑最纯粹，弹性最大标的。</strong>与小米深度绑定，小米收入占比预期从20%跃升至40%。</p>
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<p class="mt-2 text-xs text-red-400">风险：对小米依赖度过高，一荣俱荣，一损俱损。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-black/20 p-6 rounded-xl border border-blue-900/50">
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<h4 class="text-lg font-bold text-white">富特科技</h4>
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<p class="text-xs text-blue-400">小三电</p>
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<p class="mt-3 text-sm text-blue-200">收入弹性高达<strong class="text-white">35%</strong>。在细分领域技术扎实，受益确定性强。2025年利润拐点明确。</p>
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<p class="mt-2 text-xs text-red-400">风险：需警惕行业价格战对盈利能力的潜在影响。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-black/20 p-6 rounded-xl border border-blue-900/50">
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<h4 class="text-lg font-bold text-white">渤海汽车</h4>
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<p class="text-xs text-blue-400">低压线束+保险杠总成</p>
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<p class="mt-3 text-sm text-blue-200">收入弹性高达<strong class="text-white">36%</strong>，是“真弹性”的代表。单车价值量8000元，份额100%。</p>
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<p class="mt-2 text-xs text-red-400">风险：同富特科技，需关注盈利能力。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'value'" class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div class="bg-black/20 p-6 rounded-xl border border-purple-900/50">
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<h4 class="text-lg font-bold text-white">德赛西威</h4>
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<p class="text-xs text-purple-400">智驾域控</p>
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<p class="mt-3 text-sm text-blue-200">智驾域控核心供应商，单车价值量高达<strong class="text-white">16,000元</strong>。行业龙头，技术壁垒高。</p>
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<p class="mt-2 text-xs text-yellow-400">注意：公司体量大，小米带来的相对业绩弹性不如高弹性领导者突出。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-black/20 p-6 rounded-xl border border-purple-900/50">
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<h4 class="text-lg font-bold text-white">拓普集团</h4>
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<p class="text-xs text-purple-400">内饰+底盘+热管理+空悬</p>
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<p class="mt-3 text-sm text-blue-200">平台化供应商，单车价值量<strong class="text-white">7,000元</strong>。客户结构优良（特斯拉+小米+赛力斯），抗风险能力强。</p>
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||
<p class="mt-2 text-xs text-yellow-400">注意：小米业务占比提升速度是关键观察点。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 风险挑战 -->
|
||
<section class="glass-card p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-white mb-8 text-center title-glow">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
|
||
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-4 gap-4 text-sm">
|
||
<div class="bg-red-900/20 p-4 rounded-xl border border-red-500/30">
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-red-300">技术风险</h4>
|
||
<p class="mt-2 text-gray-400">高端芯片（如NVIDIA Thor）供应受全球半导体供应链影响，存在不稳定风险。软件定义汽车的功能迭代也面临挑战。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-red-900/20 p-4 rounded-xl border border-red-500/30">
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-red-300">商业化风险</h4>
|
||
<p class="mt-2 text-gray-400"><strong class="text-white">产能爬坡不及预期是最核心风险。</strong>二、三期工厂建设及良率爬坡充满不确定性，任何延误都可能导致订单流失。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-red-900/20 p-4 rounded-xl border border-red-500/30">
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-red-300">政策与竞争风险</h4>
|
||
<p class="mt-2 text-gray-400">YU7的成功必然引来对手的针对性布局。交付期间新能源车购置税、补贴等政策变动，可能成为用户退订的理由。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-red-900/20 p-4 rounded-xl border border-red-500/30">
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-red-300">信息交叉验证风险</h4>
|
||
<p class="mt-2 text-gray-400">不同来源对订单数据和远期销量预测存在矛盾（如40万 vs 80万），投资者需依赖更权威、多方交叉验证的数据源。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
|
||
<!-- 股票数据表格 -->
|
||
<section class="glass-card p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-white mb-6 text-center title-glow">相关供应链公司弹性测算一览</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table stock-table w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr class="text-sm">
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>供应产品/原因</th>
|
||
<th>单台价值量 (元)</th>
|
||
<th>份额 (%)</th>
|
||
<th>收入弹性 (2026)</th>
|
||
<th>YU7收入(亿, 2026E)</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600960" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">渤海汽车</a> <span class="badge rise-badge badge-sm">高弹性</span></td><td>低压线束+保险杠总成</td><td>8000</td><td>100%</td><td>36%</td><td>48.0</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301607" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">富特科技</a> <span class="badge rise-badge badge-sm">高弹性</span></td><td>小三电</td><td>2000</td><td>100%</td><td>35%</td><td>12.0</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=K0524" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">禾赛科技</a> <span class="badge rise-badge badge-sm">高弹性</span></td><td>激光雷达</td><td>2500</td><td>100%</td><td>26%</td><td>15.0</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002920" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">德赛西威</a> <span class="badge badge-info badge-outline badge-sm">高价值</span></td><td>智驾域控</td><td>16000</td><td>100%</td><td>23%</td><td>96.0</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=605319" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">无锡振华</a> <span class="badge rise-badge badge-sm">高弹性</span></td><td>车身冲压件</td><td>1500</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>9.0</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600480" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">凌云股份</a></td><td>一体化门环，高强钢，防滚架等</td><td>5000</td><td>100%</td><td>15%</td><td>30.0</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300680" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">隆盛科技</a></td><td>电机铁芯</td><td>800</td><td>100%</td><td>12%</td><td>4.8</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002906" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">华阳集团</a> <span class="badge badge-info badge-outline badge-sm">高价值</span></td><td>PHUD</td><td>3000</td><td>100%</td><td>11%</td><td>18.0</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688326" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">经纬恒润</a></td><td>ZCU</td><td>1500</td><td>100%</td><td>10%</td><td>9.0</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601689" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">拓普集团</a> <span class="badge badge-info badge-outline badge-sm">高价值</span></td><td>内饰+底盘+热管理+空悬</td><td>7000</td><td>100%</td><td>10%</td><td>42.0</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000700" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">模塑科技</a></td><td>保险杠</td><td>1000~2000</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>6~12</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603035" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">常熟汽饰</a></td><td>YU立柱+门板</td><td>500~1500</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>3~9</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688533" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">上声电子</a></td><td>功放</td><td>700</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>4.2</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603809" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">豪能股份</a></td><td>差速器总成</td><td>400</td><td>70%</td><td>5%</td><td>1.7</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300750" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">宁德时代</a></td><td>电池</td><td>50000</td><td>70%</td><td>4%</td><td>210.0</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>耐世特</td><td>电助力转向</td><td>2000</td><td>100%</td><td>4%</td><td>12.0</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002126" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">银轮股份</a></td><td>热管理前端模块</td><td>1000</td><td>100%</td><td>3%</td><td>6.0</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603179" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">新泉股份</a></td><td>门板</td><td>1000</td><td>100%</td><td>3%</td><td>6.0</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601799" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">星宇股份</a></td><td>YU7大灯</td><td>4000</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>8.0</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002703" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">浙江世宝</a></td><td>转向中间轴</td><td>150</td><td>100%</td><td>2%</td><td>0.9</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603197" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">保隆科技</a></td><td>储气罐及TPMS</td><td>350</td><td>100%</td><td>2%</td><td>2.1</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603997" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">继峰股份</a></td><td>冰箱+喇叭罩</td><td>1000</td><td>100%</td><td>2%</td><td>6.0</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600699" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">均胜电子</a></td><td>HMI等电子产品</td><td>1000</td><td>100%</td><td>1%</td><td>6.0</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603786" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">科博达</a></td><td>AGS</td><td>100</td><td>100%</td><td>1%</td><td>0.6</td></tr>
|
||
<!-- ... other stocks -->
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<footer class="text-center py-8 mt-12">
|
||
<p class="text-xs text-gray-500">本报告由价值前沿“价小前投研”AI Agent生成，所有数据和分析仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资有风险，决策需谨慎。</p>
|
||
<p class="text-xs text-gray-600 mt-1">© 2025 北京价值前沿科技有限公司</p>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
|
||
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|
||
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