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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="dark">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<title>光引发剂・深度行业研究报告</title>
<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.10.1/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
<script defer src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js"></script>
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
<style>
@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Noto+Sans+SC:wght@300;400;500;700&display=swap');
body {
font-family: 'Noto Sans SC', sans-serif;
background-color: #020418;
background-image:
radial-gradient(at 27% 37%, hsla(215, 98%, 61%, 0.1) 0px, transparent 50%),
radial-gradient(at 97% 21%, hsla(125, 98%, 72%, 0.1) 0px, transparent 50%),
radial-gradient(at 52% 99%, hsla(355, 98%, 76%, 0.15) 0px, transparent 50%),
radial-gradient(at 10% 29%, hsla(256, 96%, 68%, 0.15) 0px, transparent 50%),
radial-gradient(at 97% 96%, hsla(38, 60%, 74%, 0.1) 0px, transparent 50%),
radial-gradient(at 33% 50%, hsla(222, 67%, 73%, 0.1) 0px, transparent 50%),
radial-gradient(at 79% 53%, hsla(343, 68%, 79%, 0.1) 0px, transparent 50%);
color: #e0e0e0;
overflow-x: hidden;
}
.glass-card {
background: rgba(20, 20, 50, 0.2);
backdrop-filter: blur(16px) saturate(180%);
-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(16px) saturate(180%);
border-radius: 24px;
border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
transition: all 0.3s ease;
box-shadow: 0 0 40px rgba(72, 38, 184, 0.1);
}
.glass-card:hover {
transform: translateY(-5px) scale(1.01);
box-shadow: 0 0 60px rgba(128, 90, 213, 0.2), 0 0 20px rgba(128, 90, 213, 0.2);
border-color: rgba(128, 90, 213, 0.5);
}
.glow-divider {
height: 1px;
background: linear-gradient(90deg, transparent, rgba(128, 90, 213, 0.5), transparent);
}
.bento-grid {
display: grid;
gap: 1.5rem;
grid-template-columns: repeat(12, 1fr);
}
.grid-span-12 { grid-column: span 12; }
.grid-span-8 { grid-column: span 12; }
.grid-span-6 { grid-column: span 12; }
.grid-span-4 { grid-column: span 12; }
@media (min-width: 1024px) {
.grid-span-8 { grid-column: span 8; }
.grid-span-6 { grid-column: span 6; }
.grid-span-4 { grid-column: span 4; }
}
::-webkit-scrollbar {
width: 8px;
}
::-webkit-scrollbar-track {
background: #020418;
}
::-webkit-scrollbar-thumb {
background-color: rgba(128, 90, 213, 0.5);
border-radius: 10px;
border: 2px solid #020418;
}
.title-glow {
text-shadow: 0 0 8px rgba(192, 132, 252, 0.6), 0 0 16px rgba(192, 132, 252, 0.4);
}
.highlight-text {
color: #c084fc;
font-weight: 500;
}
.tag {
background: rgba(192, 132, 252, 0.1);
color: #e9d5ff;
border: 1px solid rgba(192, 132, 252, 0.2);
}
table.table {
background-color: transparent;
}
table.table th, table.table td {
background-color: transparent;
border-bottom-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
}
table.table thead th {
color: #e9d5ff;
font-weight: 500;
}
</style>
</head>
<body class="min-h-screen">
<div class="fixed top-0 left-0 w-full h-full -z-10">
<div class="absolute top-0 left-0 w-full h-full bg-gradient-to-b from-[#020418] to-transparent"></div>
<div class="absolute bottom-0 left-0 w-full h-1/2 bg-gradient-to-t from-[#020418] to-transparent"></div>
</div>
<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8 lg:p-12">
<header class="text-center mb-12">
<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-5xl lg:text-6xl font-bold title-glow bg-gradient-to-r from-purple-300 via-purple-400 to-indigo-400 text-transparent bg-clip-text">
光引发剂・深度行业研究报告
</h1>
<p class="mt-4 text-sm text-gray-400">
北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现<br>
本报告为AI合成数据投资需谨慎。
</p>
</header>
<main class="space-y-8">
<!-- Insight Section -->
<section id="insight">
<div class="bento-grid">
<!-- Concept Event -->
<div class="glass-card p-6 grid-span-12">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-purple-300">概念事件脉络:从行业冰点到供给侧引爆</h2>
<div class="glow-divider my-4"></div>
<ul class="space-y-4 text-gray-300">
<li><strong class="highlight-text">背景 (2022 Q4 - 2024 Q1) - 行业冰点期:</strong> 行业经历长达<span class="font-bold text-red-400">11个季度</span>的连续亏损,产品价格与盈利能力处历史低位,主因前期产能扩张导致供需失衡。</li>
<li><strong class="highlight-text">供给侧收缩 (2024年9月至今) - 关键变量出现:</strong>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside mt-2 pl-4 space-y-2">
<li><span class="font-semibold text-amber-300">变量一:沃凯珑停产。</span> 市场份额<span class="font-bold">10%-15%</span>的宁夏沃凯珑,因资金链断裂及环保问题持续停产,其退出市场的确定性增加。</li>
<li><span class="font-semibold text-amber-300">变量二:扬帆新材火灾。</span> 2025年6月9日扬帆新材子公司江西扬帆发生火灾被责令停产整顿对ITX及907等品种的供应链造成扰动。</li>
<li><span class="font-semibold text-amber-300">变量三:园区安全整改。</span> 宁东化工园区事故频发,预计将大幅加码园区整改力度,影响区域开工率。</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><strong class="highlight-text">价格传导与市场发酵 (2025年春节后至今):</strong> 供给端连续扰动叠加旺季来临光引发剂价格开启普涨。至2025年8月<span class="font-bold text-green-300">907</span>较年初上涨<span class="font-bold">28%</span><span class="font-bold text-green-300">184</span>上涨<span class="font-bold">32%</span><span class="font-bold text-green-300">TPO</span>上涨<span class="font-bold">27%</span></li>
<li><strong class="highlight-text">需求侧催化 (同期):</strong> 传统PCB行业需求回暖同时固态电池UV绝缘胶、3D打印、光伏镀铜等新兴应用场景被市场挖掘打开新的想象空间。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<!-- Core Logic -->
<div class="glass-card p-6 grid-span-8">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-purple-300">核心逻辑与市场认知</h2>
<div class="glow-divider my-4"></div>
<p class="text-lg mb-4 text-gray-200">光引发剂概念正处于一轮由<strong class="highlight-text">供给侧意外出清驱动</strong>的、强有力的<strong class="highlight-text">周期性底部反转阶段</strong>。核心驱动力并非需求爆发,而是行业长期亏损背景下,关键竞争者的非正常退出与突发事件打破了供需平衡,赋予了龙头企业强大的定价权。</p>
<ul class="space-y-3 text-gray-300">
<li><strong class="text-sky-300">根本逻辑:</strong> 本轮行情是供给侧的“减法”而非需求侧的“加法”。沃凯珑市占率10-15%)的停产,从根本上改变了供给格局,移除了一个长期低价扰乱市场的“价格破坏者”。</li>
<li><strong class="text-sky-300">催化剂:</strong> 扬帆新材的火灾事件扮演了“火上浇油”的角色,加剧了市场对供给紧张的恐慌情绪。</li>
<li><strong class="text-sky-300">价格弹性基础:</strong> 光引发剂占下游成本比例较低下游价格传导能力强。历史价格峰值远高于现价如TPO曾达40万元/吨现价9.5万),上涨空间巨大。</li>
<li><strong class="text-sky-300">市场情绪与分歧:</strong> 市场普遍认同“底部反转”逻辑,但对价格上涨的<strong class="text-red-400">持续性</strong>存在分歧主因行业产能过剩约50%)的根本格局未变。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<!-- Potential Risks -->
<div class="glass-card p-6 grid-span-4">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-purple-300">潜在风险与预期差</h2>
<div class="glow-divider my-4"></div>
<ul class="space-y-3 text-gray-300">
<li><strong class="text-red-400">风险:沃凯珑的最终结局。</strong> 市场似乎已将其视为永久退出,但路演中出现“复产已落实”的矛盾信息。若沃凯珑恢复生产,将对当前逻辑构成重大打击。</li>
<li><strong class="text-green-300">机会:新兴需求的实际体量。</strong> 市场可能过度计入固态电池、3D打印等远期应用的预期而忽略了传统PCB和涂料需求超预期复苏带来的更稳固的业绩支撑。</li>
<li><strong class="text-red-400">技术风险:</strong> 907因潜在毒性在欧盟已禁用长期存在被环保新品替代的风险。</li>
<li><strong class="text-red-400">商业化风险:</strong> 价格持续性依赖于沃凯珑的持续停产,若需求不及预期或有新产能进入,可能重陷价格战。</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Market Dynamics -->
<section id="market-dynamics" class="mt-8">
<div class="bento-grid">
<div class="glass-card p-6 grid-span-6">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-purple-300">市场动态与价格趋势</h2>
<div class="glow-divider my-4"></div>
<p class="text-gray-300 mb-4">自2025年春节后光引发剂价格开启普涨行业景气度明显回暖。此前行业已连续亏损11个季度价格与盈利水平均处历史低位。</p>
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
<table class="table table-sm">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>产品型号</th>
<th>当前价格 (元/公斤)</th>
<th>较年初涨幅</th>
<th>信源</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="font-semibold text-cyan-300">907</td>
<td>88 - 89</td>
<td class="text-green-400 font-bold">+28%</td>
<td>新闻数据</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="font-semibold text-cyan-300">184</td>
<td>45</td>
<td class="text-green-400 font-bold">+32%</td>
<td>新闻数据</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="font-semibold text-cyan-300">TPO</td>
<td>95</td>
<td class="text-green-400 font-bold">+27%</td>
<td>新闻数据</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="font-semibold text-cyan-300">ITX</td>
<td>155</td>
<td class="text-green-400 font-bold">+17%</td>
<td>新闻数据</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="font-semibold text-cyan-300">819</td>
<td>150 - 160</td>
<td class="text-green-400 font-bold">+2%</td>
<td>新闻数据</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
<div class="glass-card p-6 grid-span-6 min-h-[400px]">
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-purple-300 mb-2">主要品种价格走势 (2025年)</h3>
<div id="priceChart" class="w-full h-[350px]"></div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Supply/Demand -->
<section id="supply-demand" class="mt-8">
<div class="bento-grid">
<div class="glass-card p-6 grid-span-7">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-purple-300">供需格局与行业动态</h2>
<div class="glow-divider my-4"></div>
<div class="space-y-4">
<div>
<h3 class="font-semibold text-sky-300 text-lg">供给端:格局优化,事件频发</h3>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside text-gray-300 mt-2 space-y-1">
<li><strong class="highlight-text">行业高度集中:</strong> 全球生产主要集中在国内CR5集中度高产能向头部企业集中。</li>
<li><strong class="highlight-text">沃凯珑停产 (1.3万吨)</strong> 因资金与环保问题长期停产其10-15%的市占率出清,极大改善竞争格局。</li>
<li><strong class="highlight-text">扬帆新材火灾:</strong> 影响907、ITX等品种中间体供应加剧短期供应紧张。</li>
<li><strong class="highlight-text">环保与安全趋严:</strong> 环保督查与园区整改加速中小产能退出,供给弹性有限。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<h3 class="font-semibold text-sky-300 text-lg">需求端:传统回暖,新兴拓展</h3>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside text-gray-300 mt-2 space-y-1">
<li><strong class="highlight-text">传统需求:</strong> UV涂料、油墨、胶粘剂等领域需求稳定增长。</li>
<li><strong class="highlight-text">PCB油墨</strong> 受AI、新能源车等产业推动需求持续向好是当前主要增长点。</li>
<li><strong class="highlight-text">新兴应用:</strong>
<span class="tag px-2 py-1 rounded-full text-xs mx-1">固态电池 (UV绝缘胶)</span>
<span class="tag px-2 py-1 rounded-full text-xs mx-1">3D打印</span>
<span class="tag px-2 py-1 rounded-full text-xs mx-1">光刻胶</span>
<span class="tag px-2 py-1 rounded-full text-xs mx-1">光伏镀铜</span>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="glass-card p-6 grid-span-5">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-purple-300">主要厂商产能 (万吨)</h2>
<div class="glow-divider my-4"></div>
<ul class="space-y-3">
<li class="flex justify-between items-center text-lg">
<span class="text-gray-200">久日新材</span>
<span class="font-bold text-green-300 text-xl">2.29</span>
</li>
<li class="flex justify-between items-center text-lg">
<span class="text-gray-200">强力新材</span>
<span class="font-bold text-green-300 text-xl">1.66</span>
</li>
<li class="flex justify-between items-center text-lg">
<span class="text-gray-200 text-red-400 line-through">沃凯珑 (已停产)</span>
<span class="font-bold text-red-400 text-xl line-through">1.3</span>
</li>
<li class="flex justify-between items-center text-lg">
<span class="text-gray-200">IGM (海外)</span>
<span class="font-bold text-green-300 text-xl">1.2</span>
</li>
<li class="flex justify-between items-center text-lg">
<span class="text-gray-200">扬帆新材</span>
<span class="font-bold text-green-300 text-xl">0.8</span>
</li>
<li class="flex justify-between items-center text-lg">
<span class="text-gray-200">固润科技</span>
<span class="font-bold text-green-300 text-xl">0.5</span>
</li>
</ul>
<p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-4">*数据来源:新闻、路演、研报综合整理,扬帆新材产能存在多种口径,此处取较小值。</p>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Stock Table -->
<section id="stocks" class="mt-8">
<div class="glass-card p-6">
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-center mb-6 text-purple-300">核心标的与产业链公司</h2>
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
<table class="table w-full">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>股票名称</th>
<th>核心逻辑 / 产品</th>
<th>产能 (万吨)</th>
<th>信源</th>
<th>备注</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="hover:bg-purple-900/20">
<td class="font-bold text-lg"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688199" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-300 hover:underline">久日新材 (688199)</a></td>
<td>全球规模最大、品种最全的龙头。产品覆盖184, TPO, 907等全系列业绩弹性最大布局光刻胶材料。</td>
<td class="font-semibold">2.28</td>
<td>机构研报</td>
<td class="text-green-300">绝对龙头</td>
</tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-purple-900/20">
<td class="font-bold text-lg"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300429" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-300 hover:underline">强力新材 (300429)</a></td>
<td>技术驱动聚焦高端电子材料。产品覆盖PCB、LCD、半导体光刻胶用光引发剂。</td>
<td class="font-semibold">1.66</td>
<td>机构研报</td>
<td class="text-sky-300">技术领先</td>
</tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-purple-900/20">
<td class="font-bold text-lg"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300637" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-300 hover:underline">扬帆新材 (300637)</a></td>
<td>传统光引发剂重要厂商产品包括907, ITX, TPO等。经营重心向医药农药中间体转移。</td>
<td class="font-semibold">0.8</td>
<td>机构研报</td>
<td class="text-amber-300">业务转型</td>
</tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-purple-900/20">
<td class="font-bold text-lg"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300398" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-300 hover:underline">飞凯材料 (300398)</a></td>
<td>光引发剂TMO为TPO的优良替代品已实现量产。</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>互动</td>
<td class="text-fuchsia-300">技术替代</td>
</tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-purple-900/20">
<td class="font-bold text-lg"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002669" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-300 hover:underline">康达新材 (002669)</a></td>
<td>子公司掌握半导体光刻胶光引发剂(PAG)生产技术,拟投建产业化项目。</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>调研/互动</td>
<td class="text-sky-300">布局高端</td>
</tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-purple-900/20">
<td class="font-bold text-lg">固润科技</td>
<td>新三板公司主要产品覆盖TPO, ITX等主流型号。</td>
<td class="font-semibold">0.5</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>新三板</td>
</tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-purple-900/20">
<td class="font-bold text-lg"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000422" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-300 hover:underline">湖北宜化 (000422)</a></td>
<td>参股公司光引发剂1206已投产主要应用于光刻胶领域。</td>
<td class="font-semibold">0.04</td>
<td>互动</td>
<td>光刻胶应用</td>
</tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-purple-900/20">
<td class="font-bold text-lg"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301076" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-300 hover:underline">新瀚新材 (301076)</a></td>
<td>公司光引发剂产品(ITF产品)暂未应用于光刻胶领域。</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>年报/互动</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<section id="rise-analysis" class="mt-8">
<div class="glass-card p-6">
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-center mb-6 text-purple-300">相关概念异动分析</h2>
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
<table class="table w-full">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>股票</th>
<th>日期</th>
<th>涨幅</th>
<th class="w-2/3">异动解析</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="hover:bg-purple-900/20">
<td class="font-bold"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002453" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-300 hover:underline">华软科技 (002453)</a></td>
<td>2025-07-30</td>
<td class="font-bold text-green-400">10.09%</td>
<td class="text-xs leading-relaxed">核心结论: 华软科技涨停系“3.2亿元收购光引发剂龙头+KrF光刻胶单体中试突破+工信部目录新增产品”三重催化共振,业绩与估值同步重估。 <br>驱动概念: 光引发剂+KrF光刻胶单体+工信部首批次新材料 <br><br>个股异动解析: <br>1. 消息面: <br>1光引发剂184/TPO工信部《重点新材料首批次应用示范目录2025年版》7月30日凌晨新增光引发剂184、TPO享首批次保险补偿及优先采购。公司7月29日晚公告拟3.2亿元现金收购山东某精细化工企业70%股权标的主营光引发剂184、TPO2024年净利4200万元承诺2025-2027三年累计净利≥1.5亿元对应收购PE≈7.6倍。 <br>2KrF光刻胶单体互动易7月30日凌晨回复公司KrF光刻胶单体中试线8月出样品下游已对接两家头部晶圆厂。 <br>3工信部首批次目录目录将公司现有及即将量产产品同时纳入政策端需求兜底。 <br><br>2. 基本面: <br>- 2024年标的净利4200万元并表后可使上市公司净利增厚60%+。 <br>- 4500吨光刻胶项目试生产KrF单体国产替代空间>90%。 <br>- 龙虎榜两家机构7月30日净买入6800万元占成交7.8%,资金认可中长期逻辑。</td>
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