448 lines
26 KiB
HTML
448 lines
26 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>深度行研 | 利基型存储DDR4</title>
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<!-- Tailwind CSS & DaisyUI -->
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.10.2/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
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<script defer src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.14.0/dist/cdn.min.js"></script>
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<style>
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:root {
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--glow-color: rgba(0, 255, 255, 0.7);
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--glow-spread: 8px;
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}
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body {
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font-family: 'Inter', sans-serif;
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background-color: #020010;
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background-image:
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radial-gradient(circle at 15% 15%, rgba(10, 88, 202, 0.3) 0%, transparent 30%),
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color: #00ffff;
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font-weight: 600;
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.table tbody tr {
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background-color: transparent;
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transition: background-color 0.2s ease;
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.table tbody tr:hover {
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</head>
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<body x-data="{}"
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@mousemove.window="
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">
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8 max-w-screen-2xl">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold glow-text mb-4">深度行研：利基型存储DDR4</h1>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现</p>
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<p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-2">免责声明：本报告由AI基于多源数据合成，旨在提供研究参考，不构成任何投资建议，投资需谨慎。</p>
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</header>
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<!-- Insight & Analysis Section -->
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<main class="bento-grid">
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<!-- Core Viewpoint -->
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<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12 lg:col-span-7">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 glow-text">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<p class="text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">
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利基型存储DDR4概念的核心逻辑并非自身需求的爆发式增长，而是由AI驱动高端存储（HBM/DDR5）需求激增，引发国际原厂战略性产能退出，从而制造了一场剧烈的、阶段性的<strong class="text-cyan-300">供给侧危机</strong>。这场危机与下游应用短期内的<strong class="text-cyan-300">需求刚性</strong>形成错配，催生了DDR4价格的超级周期，为拥有低成本库存的模组厂和具备承接能力的国产设计厂商带来了显著的业绩弹性窗口。
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</p>
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</div>
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<!-- Core Logic -->
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<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12 lg:col-span-5">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 glow-text">核心驱动力</h2>
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<p class="text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">
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本质是<strong class="text-cyan-300">“产能挤出效应”</strong>。高端AI需求挤出低端DDR4供给，而低端需求短期无法迁移（切换周期约9-12个月），形成剧烈供需缺口。
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</p>
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</div>
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<!-- Event Timeline & Price Chart -->
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<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12 lg:col-span-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 glow-text">概念事件与价格爆发</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div class="timeline">
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
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<p class="timeline-date">~2024 Q3</p>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg">转折前夜</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">DDR4产能过剩，原厂降价冲击，国内厂商价格承压。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<div class="timeline-dot" style="--glow-color: rgba(255, 165, 0, 0.7);"></div>
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<p class="timeline-date">2024 Q4 - 2025 Q1</p>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-orange-300">战略转向</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">AI驱动HBM/DDR5需求爆发，国际原厂（三星/海力士/美光）宣布逐步退出DDR4产能。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<div class="timeline-dot" style="--glow-color: rgba(255, 0, 0, 0.7);"></div>
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<p class="timeline-date">2025 Q2 至今</p>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-red-400">供需失衡</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">供应急剧收缩，价格飙升，出现高于DDR5的“价格倒挂”现象。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<div class="timeline-dot" style="--glow-color: rgba(0, 255, 0, 0.7);"></div>
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<p class="timeline-date">2025 H2 以后</p>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-green-400">国产替代</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">原厂退出创造结构性机遇，兆易创新等国内厂商加速承接市场份额。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg mb-2 text-center">DDR4 8Gb 现货价格飙升 (2025 Q2)</h3>
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<div id="priceChart" style="width: 100%; height: 280px;"></div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Catalysts -->
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<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12 lg:col-span-4">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 glow-text">关键催化剂</h2>
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<ul class="space-y-3 list-disc list-inside text-gray-300">
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-400">业绩验证：</strong>相关公司Q3/Q4财报毛利率和利润大幅改善。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-400">价格数据：</strong>合约价涨幅持续超预期。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-400">原厂动作：</strong>三星/美光等发布更多产线关停或转产公告。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<!-- Industry Chain -->
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<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 glow-text">产业链与核心公司剖析</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6 text-center">
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg border-b border-cyan-500 pb-2 mb-3 text-cyan-300">上游：核心零部件</h3>
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<p><strong>DRAM晶圆:</strong> 三星/海力士(退出中)</p>
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<p><strong>内存接口芯片:</strong> <span class="font-mono bg-gray-700 px-2 py-1 rounded">澜起科技</span></p>
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<p><strong>SPD芯片 (EEPROM):</strong> <span class="font-mono bg-gray-700 px-2 py-1 rounded">聚辰股份</span></p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg border-b border-purple-500 pb-2 mb-3 text-purple-300">中游：概念核心</h3>
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<p><strong>Fabless设计:</strong> <span class="font-mono bg-gray-700 px-2 py-1 rounded">兆易创新</span>, <span class="font-mono bg-gray-700 px-2 py-1 rounded">北京君正</span></p>
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<p><strong>存储模组:</strong> <span class="font-mono bg-gray-700 px-2 py-1 rounded">江波龙</span>, <span class="font-mono bg-gray-700 px-2 py-1 rounded">佰维存储</span></p>
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<p><strong>封测服务:</strong> <span class="font-mono bg-gray-700 px-2 py-1 rounded">深科技</span>, <span class="font-mono bg-gray-700 px-2 py-1 rounded">太极实业</span></p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg border-b border-green-500 pb-2 mb-3 text-green-300">下游：分销与应用</h3>
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<p><strong>代理分销:</strong> <span class="font-mono bg-gray-700 px-2 py-1 rounded">香农芯创</span></p>
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<p><strong>终端应用:</strong> PC, 服务器, 消费电子, 通信, 工控, 汽车等</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Risks -->
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<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12 lg:col-span-6">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 glow-text">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
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<ul class="space-y-3 list-disc list-inside text-gray-300">
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<li><strong class="text-red-400">需求崩塌风险:</strong> 高价格倒逼下游加速向DDR5迁移，缩短景气周期。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-red-400">库存风险:</strong> 对模组厂而言，价格拐点出现将面临库存减值损失。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-red-400">竞争格局变化:</strong> 其他二线厂商扩产或原厂策略反复，可能缓解供应紧张。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-red-400">市场突变风险:</strong> 存储市场景气度变化极快，当前的超级景气也可能被新变量迅速逆转。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<!-- Conclusion -->
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<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12 lg:col-span-6">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 glow-text">综合结论与投资启示</h2>
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<p class="mb-4 text-gray-300">
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利基型DDR4概念已进入<strong class="text-cyan-300">基本面驱动阶段</strong>，具备典型的“高弹性、短周期”特征。投资窗口由结构性、阶段性的供给冲击创造，其持续性高度依赖于下游需求向DDR5迁移的速度。
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</p>
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<div class="space-y-2">
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<p><strong class="text-green-400">逻辑最硬环节:</strong> 国内利基型DRAM设计厂商 (如 <strong class="text-white">兆易创新</strong>)，承接长期市场份额。</p>
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<p><strong class="text-yellow-400">短期弹性最大环节:</strong> 存储模组厂商 (如 <strong class="text-white">江波龙、佰维存储</strong>)，受益于库存价值重估。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</main>
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<!-- Supporting Data Section -->
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<section class="mt-12" x-data="{ openTab: 'news' }">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-center mb-8 glow-text">底层数据支撑</h2>
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<div class="tabs tabs-boxed justify-center glass-card max-w-lg mx-auto mb-6">
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<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active !text-cyan-300': openTab === 'news' }" @click.prevent="openTab = 'news'">新闻数据</a>
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<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active !text-cyan-300': openTab === 'roadshow' }" @click.prevent="openTab = 'roadshow'">路演纪要</a>
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<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active !text-cyan-300': openTab === 'research' }" @click.prevent="openTab = 'research'">研报观点</a>
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</div>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<!-- News Data -->
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<div x-show="openTab === 'news'" class="glass-card p-6 rounded-2xl animate-fade-in">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-cyan-300">新闻数据摘要</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3 list-disc list-inside text-gray-300">
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<li><strong>核心事件:</strong> AI驱动高端存储需求激增，三星/SK海力士/美光等原厂将产能转向HBM/DDR5，并计划停产或减产DDR4。</li>
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<li><strong>价格动态:</strong> 自2025年Q2起，DDR4价格迅猛上涨。部分型号DDR4价格一月内涨近50%，Q2累计涨幅达156%。9月DDR4 16G/8G环比上升41.3%/30.6%。</li>
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<li><strong>价格倒挂:</strong> 部分DDR4报价已高于高规格的DDR5。例如，DDR4 16Gb报价8.2美元，高于DDR5 16Gb的5.90美元。</li>
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<li><strong>涨价原因:</strong> 核心原因是原厂产能转移。次要原因是下游因长尾需求紧急建库，加剧供应短缺。</li>
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<li><strong>国产机遇:</strong> 国际大厂的战略调整为国内存储厂商（如兆易创新、北京君正、东芯股份）创造了结构性市场机遇，有望持续提升份额。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<!-- Roadshow Data -->
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<div x-show="openTab === 'roadshow'" class="glass-card p-6 rounded-2xl animate-fade-in">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-cyan-300">路演纪要精选</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3 list-disc list-inside text-gray-300">
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<li><strong>供给收缩:</strong> 海外原厂2025 Q1起正式退出DDR4产能，预计2026年基本无新货。长鑫存储也计划于2025 H2后退出自有品牌DDR4业务，需求转由兆易创新代销或代工。</li>
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<li><strong>需求刚性:</strong> 下游70%存量设计无法立即切换DDR5，切换周期长达9–12个月，导致DDR4阶段性供需错配。电视、机顶盒、网通、汽车需求刚性。</li>
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<li><strong>价格指引 (25Q4合约价环比):</strong> 服务器DDR4: +30-40%；手机LPDDR4: +30%以上；PC DDR4: +20-30%。</li>
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<li><strong>业绩弹性:</strong> 国内模组厂及DDR4利基型设计厂（兆易创新等）因前期低价库存和价格传导顺畅，在24Q4-25Q1具备显著业绩弹性。兆易创新Q2毛利率已从个位数提升至20%+。</li>
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<li><strong>拐点观察:</strong> 2025 Q4后的价格拐点，取决于“DDR4需求下滑速度 vs 供给退出速度”。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<!-- Research Report Data -->
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<div x-show="openTab === 'research'" class="glass-card p-6 rounded-2xl animate-fade-in">
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||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-cyan-300">研报核心观点</h3>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-3 list-disc list-inside text-gray-300">
|
||
<li><strong>价格趋势:</strong> 利基型DRAM价格在23Q3触底后持续反弹。TrendForce预测2025下半年DDR4市场将持续供不应求，价格强势上涨。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>原厂计划:</strong> 三星/SK海力士/美光计划于2025下半年终止DDR3/DDR4生产，最后出货时间约在2026年初，EOL通知主要针对Server与PC客户。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>产能切换原因:</strong> HBM、DDR5等高端产品利润率明显更高，是原厂转移产能的核心驱动力。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>国产机遇:</strong> 随着原厂退出，国内厂商如长鑫存储、华邦电、南亚科有望迎来转单机遇。研报建议关注兆易创新、北京君正、江波龙、佰维存储等。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>应用领域:</strong> DDR4仍广泛用于数据中心、PC、机顶盒、电视、网络通信、智慧家庭、国产化平台等场景。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Table Section -->
|
||
<section class="mt-16">
|
||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-center mb-8 glow-text">核心标的池分析</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card p-4 rounded-2xl">
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑</th>
|
||
<th>标签</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<!-- Data from JSON will be populated here -->
|
||
<tr><td>兆易创新</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603986" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">603986</a></td><td>国内利基型DRAM设计龙头，DDR4 8Gb产品已量产出货，直接承接原厂退出市场份额。</td><td class="font-mono">产品设计</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>江波龙</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301308" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">301308</a></td><td>模组厂商，恢复DDR4测试制造产能，受益于低价库存价值重估，业绩弹性大。</td><td class="font-mono">存储模组</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>佰维存储</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688525" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">688525</a></td><td>企业级DDR4 RDIMM产品布局完善，支持高达3200MT/s，受益于涨价周期。</td><td class="font-mono">存储模组</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>北京君正</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300223" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">300223</a></td><td>采用先进工艺制程，完善DDR4和LPDDR4产品线，布局利基型市场。</td><td class="font-mono">产品设计</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>澜起科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688008" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">688008</a></td><td>全球三大内存接口芯片厂商之一，DDR4世代行业领跑者，是产业链关键环节。</td><td class="font-mono">内存接口芯片</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>深科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000021" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000021</a></td><td>从事高端存储芯片封测，产品覆盖DDR4/LPDDR4，受益于行业景气度提升。</td><td class="font-mono">封测</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>太极实业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600667" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600667</a></td><td>子公司太极半导体扩充DDR4/LPDDR4封测产能，直接受益于DDR4需求。</td><td class="font-mono">封测</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>聚辰股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688123" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">688123</a></td><td>服务器SPD业务将伴随DDR5加速渗透而增长，间接受益于DDR4向DDR5的技术迭代浪潮。</td><td class="font-mono">涨幅异动分析</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>德明利</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=001309" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">001309</a></td><td>消费级DDR4内存模组产品已实现量产出货。</td><td class="font-mono">存储模组</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>东芯股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688110" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">688110</a></td><td>设计研发的LPDDR4x产品已进入量产阶段。</td><td class="font-mono">产品设计</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>朗科科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300042" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">300042</a></td><td>内存产品线涵盖DDR4/DDR5不同产品规格。</td><td class="font-mono">存储模组</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>香农芯创</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300475" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">300475</a></td><td>代理销售的存储产品包括DDR4。</td><td class="font-mono">代理分销</td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
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</div>
|
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</section>
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