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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
<head>
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<title>深度研报:阿里“千问”项目</title>
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width: 100%;
height: 400px;
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</style>
</head>
<body class="text-gray-300">
<div class="container mx-auto px-4 py-8">
<!-- Header -->
<header class="text-center mb-12">
<h1 class="text-5xl md:text-7xl font-bold font-oxanium glow-text text-white tracking-widest">
阿里“千问”项目
</h1>
<p class="mt-4 text-lg text-primary">深度投研报告</p>
<div class="mt-4 text-xs text-gray-500 max-w-2xl mx-auto p-2 border border-gray-700 rounded-lg">
<p>由 北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现</p>
<p>免责声明本报告由AI基于公开信息合成旨在提供研究参考不构成任何投资建议。投资有风险决策需谨慎。</p>
</div>
</header>
<!-- Bento Grid for Core Insights -->
<main class="space-y-16">
<section class="bento-grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-3">
<div class="lg:col-span-2 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold font-oxanium text-white mb-4">核心观点摘要</h2>
<p class="text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">
阿里“千问”项目是其在AI时代下leveraging其全球领先的开源模型生态Qwen与深厚的商业场景电商、本地生活、支付进行的一次从B端ToB向C端ToC的战略核心转移。当前该概念正处于由宏大叙事和海量用户数据驱动的<strong class="text-accent">应用层炒作初期</strong>其核心驱动力是打造一个“超级AI入口”的巨大想象空间。然而其长期价值能否兑现取决于能否在激烈的技术竞争中尤其面对DeepSeek等竞品弥合性能差距并成功探索出可持续的C端商业化路径。
</p>
</div>
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 floating-element" style="animation-delay: -2s;">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold font-oxanium text-white mb-4">核心驱动力</h2>
<ul class="space-y-3">
<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-primary mr-3 mt-1"></span><div><strong class="text-white">战略转型驱动:</strong>打造超级AI入口盘活集团生态体系。</div></li>
<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-primary mr-3 mt-1"></span><div><strong class="text-white">技术开源驱动:</strong>构建“AI时代的安卓”以庞大开发者生态为基石。</div></li>
<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-primary mr-3 mt-1"></span><div><strong class="text-white">商业闭环驱动:</strong>“场景即护城河”,实现信息获取到服务完成的无缝闭环。</div></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="lg:col-span-3 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold font-oxanium text-white mb-4">市场预期差分析:性能与成本</h2>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-4">市场普遍认为Qwen模型技术全球领先但路演数据显示其在关键能力和成本控制上与顶级竞品存在差距这构成了当前概念最大的风险与预期差。</p>
<div id="performanceChart" class="echarts-container"></div>
</div>
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 floating-element" style="animation-delay: -4s;">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold font-oxanium text-white mb-4">近期关键催化剂</h2>
<ul class="space-y-3">
<li><strong class="text-info">Agent功能落地</strong>验证“超级入口”逻辑的关键一步。</li>
<li><strong class="text-info">苹果合作确认:</strong>若官宣,将是短期最强股价催化剂。</li>
<li><strong class="text-info">DAU/API调用量</strong>持续高增长将强化平台价值。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="lg:col-span-2 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold font-oxanium text-white mb-4">产业链图谱</h2>
<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row justify-around text-center">
<div class="p-4">
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-secondary">上游AI基础设施</h3>
<p class="text-sm">算力/数据中心 (数据港, 杭钢股份)</p>
<p class="text-sm">服务器/芯片 (浪潮信息, 海光信息)</p>
<p class="text-sm">网络设备/光模块 (紫光股份, 中际旭创)</p>
</div>
<div class="p-4 border-t-2 md:border-t-0 md:border-l-2 border-dashed border-gray-700">
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-accent">中游:模型与平台</h3>
<p class="text-sm">核心主体 (阿里巴巴)</p>
<p class="text-sm">模型训练合作 (昆仑万维)</p>
</div>
<div class="p-4 border-t-2 md:border-t-0 md:border-l-2 border-dashed border-gray-700">
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-primary">下游:应用与生态</h3>
<p class="text-sm">阿里内部生态 (淘宝, 高德, 钉钉)</p>
<p class="text-sm">核心生态伙伴 (石基信息, 光云科技)</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Timeline Section -->
<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="text-2xl text-center font-bold font-oxanium text-white mb-10">项目发展路径与时间轴</h2>
<!-- 使用 DaisyUI 原生时间轴组件 -->
<!-- max-md:timeline-compact 表示在移动端自动变为单列紧凑模式 -->
<!-- timeline-vertical 表示垂直排列 -->
<ul class="timeline timeline-snap-icon max-md:timeline-compact timeline-vertical">
<!-- Item 1: 左侧 (2024) -->
<li>
<div class="timeline-middle">
<!-- 霓虹灯光点 -->
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-primary glow-text">
<path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.137-.089l4-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" />
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<div class="timeline-start mb-10 md:text-end w-full md:w-auto">
<div class="glass-card p-4 rounded-xl border border-primary/30 hover:border-primary transition-colors">
<time class="font-oxanium text-sm text-gray-400">~2024</time>
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-primary mt-1">技术奠基期</h3>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-2">通义千问(Qwen)模型在开源社区崭露头角,登顶全球榜单,积累技术声誉。</p>
</div>
</div>
<hr class="bg-primary/30"/>
</li>
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<li>
<hr class="bg-primary/30"/>
<div class="timeline-middle">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-primary glow-text">
<path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.137-.089l4-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" />
</svg>
</div>
<!-- timeline-end 在桌面端显示在右侧/下方 -->
<div class="timeline-end mb-10 w-full md:w-auto">
<div class="glass-card p-4 rounded-xl border border-primary/30 hover:border-primary transition-colors">
<time class="font-oxanium text-sm text-gray-400">年初~2025.11</time>
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-primary mt-1">战略酝酿期</h3>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-2">宣布投入3800亿建设AI基建秘密启动“千问”项目定位“AI时代的未来之战”。</p>
</div>
</div>
<hr class="bg-accent/30"/>
</li>
<!-- Item 3: 左侧 (2025.11.17) -->
<li>
<hr class="bg-accent/30"/>
<div class="timeline-middle">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-accent glow-text">
<path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.137-.089l4-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" />
</svg>
</div>
<div class="timeline-start mb-10 md:text-end w-full md:w-auto">
<div class="glass-card p-4 rounded-xl border border-accent/30 hover:border-accent transition-colors shadow-[0_0_15px_rgba(255,88,203,0.1)]">
<time class="font-oxanium text-sm text-white">2025.11.17</time>
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-accent mt-1">正式引爆</h3>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-2">千问APP上线公测一周下载量破1000万标志战略重心向C端倾斜。</p>
</div>
</div>
<hr class="bg-secondary/30"/>
</li>
<!-- Item 4: 右侧 (当前) -->
<li>
<hr class="bg-secondary/30"/>
<div class="timeline-middle">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-secondary glow-text">
<path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.137-.089l4-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" />
</svg>
</div>
<div class="timeline-end mb-10 w-full md:w-auto">
<div class="glass-card p-4 rounded-xl border border-secondary/30 hover:border-secondary transition-colors">
<time class="font-oxanium text-sm text-gray-400">当前-2026</time>
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-secondary mt-1">“入口”确立期</h3>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-2">核心任务是完善Agent功能深度整合阿里内部应用迅速扩大用户基数。</p>
</div>
</div>
<hr class="bg-secondary/30"/>
</li>
<!-- Item 5: 左侧 (2026-2028) -->
<li>
<hr class="bg-secondary/30"/>
<div class="timeline-middle">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-secondary glow-text">
<path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.137-.089l4-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" />
</svg>
</div>
<div class="timeline-start mb-10 md:text-end w-full md:w-auto">
<div class="glass-card p-4 rounded-xl border border-secondary/30 hover:border-secondary transition-colors">
<time class="font-oxanium text-sm text-gray-400">2026-2028</time>
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-secondary mt-1">“生态”开放期</h3>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-2">通过开放API和AI Agent Store将千问平台化打造AI应用“分发中心”。</p>
</div>
</div>
<hr class="bg-gray-700"/>
</li>
<!-- Item 6: 右侧 (2028以后) -->
<li>
<hr class="bg-gray-700"/>
<div class="timeline-middle">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-gray-500 glow-text">
<path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.137-.089l4-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" />
</svg>
</div>
<div class="timeline-end mb-10 w-full md:w-auto">
<div class="glass-card p-4 rounded-xl border border-gray-700 hover:border-white transition-colors">
<time class="font-oxanium text-sm text-gray-400">2028以后</time>
<h3 class="font-bold text-gray-400 mt-1">“商业化”成熟期</h3>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-2">探索订阅制、应用商店分成、广告佣金等多元化商业模式,实现盈利。</p>
</div>
</div>
</li>
</ul>
</section>
<h2 class="text-2xl text-center font-bold font-oxanium text-white mb-10">项目发展路径与时间轴</h2>
<div class="timeline max-w-4xl mx-auto">
<!-- Item 1 -->
<div class="timeline-item">
<div class="timeline-content glass-card p-4 rounded-xl">
<h3 class="font-bold text-primary">~2024: 技术奠基期</h3>
<p class="text-sm">通义千问(Qwen)模型在开源社区崭露头角,登顶全球榜单,积累技术声誉。</p>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Item 2 -->
<div class="timeline-item">
<div class="timeline-content glass-card p-4 rounded-xl">
<h3 class="font-bold text-primary">年初~2025.11: 战略酝酿期</h3>
<p class="text-sm">宣布投入3800亿建设AI基建秘密启动“千问”项目定位“AI时代的未来之战”。</p>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Item 3 -->
<div class="timeline-item">
<div class="timeline-content glass-card p-4 rounded-xl">
<h3 class="font-bold text-accent">2025.11.17: 正式引爆</h3>
<p class="text-sm">千问APP上线公测一周下载量破1000万标志战略重心向C端倾斜。</p>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Item 4 -->
<div class="timeline-item">
<div class="timeline-content glass-card p-4 rounded-xl">
<h3 class="font-bold text-secondary">当前-2026: “入口”确立期</h3>
<p class="text-sm">核心任务是完善Agent功能深度整合阿里内部应用迅速扩大用户基数。</p>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Item 5 -->
<div class="timeline-item">
<div class="timeline-content glass-card p-4 rounded-xl">
<h3 class="font-bold text-secondary">2026-2028: “生态”开放期</h3>
<p class="text-sm">通过开放API和AI Agent Store将千问平台化打造AI应用“分发中心”。</p>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Item 6 -->
<div class="timeline-item">
<div class="timeline-content glass-card p-4 rounded-xl">
<h3 class="font-bold text-secondary">2028以后: “商业化”成熟期</h3>
<p class="text-sm">探索订阅制、应用商店分成、广告佣金等多元化商业模式,实现盈利。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Detailed Data (Accordions) -->
<section class="space-y-4">
<h2 class="text-3xl text-center font-bold font-oxanium text-white mb-8">多源情报深度解析</h2>
<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card rounded-2xl">
<input type="radio" name="my-accordion-2" id="insight-details"/>
<label for="insight-details" class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium font-oxanium text-white">
核心逻辑与市场认知 (Insight)
</label>
<div class="collapse-content text-gray-400">
<div class="p-4 space-y-4">
<p><strong>信息交叉验证风险:</strong>最显著的矛盾点在于模型性能。新闻稿中“登顶榜首”、“赶超GPT-4”的宣传性表述与路演纪要中“落后于DeepSeek V3”、“思维链需突破”的内部测评结论存在明显冲突。这表明投资者需审慎看待其公开宣传的技术实力其“护城河”可能不如市场想象的那么深。</p>
<p><strong>商业化风险:</strong>C端盈利模式模糊目前完全免费。同时路演指出其推理成本远高于竞品是DeepSeek的5.6倍),在“百模大战”和价格战的背景下,高昂的成本可能侵蚀其利润空间,使其陷入“用户越多、亏损越大”的困境。</p>
<p><strong>综合结论:</strong>项目目前明确处于<strong>主题炒作与基本面预期注入的混合阶段</strong>。其“超级AI入口”的故事极具吸引力但核心技术尚未与顶尖竞品拉开差距商业模式尚在探索。这是一个高想象空间与高不确定性并存的典型“成长股”概念。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card rounded-2xl">
<input type="radio" name="my-accordion-2" id="news-details" />
<label for="news-details" class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium font-oxanium text-white">
新闻数据摘要
</label>
<div class="collapse-content text-gray-400">
<div class="p-4 space-y-2">
<p><strong>项目启动与战略定位:</strong>秘密启动“千问”项目全面对标ChatGPT内部定位为“AI时代的未来之战”。战略重心从B端市场向C端倾斜全力进军AI to C。</p>
<p><strong>千问APP</strong>定位“会聊天能办事的个人AI助手”基于全球性能第一的开源模型Qwen3。公测一周下载量突破1000万次超越ChatGPT、Sora成为史上增长最快的AI应用之一。深度融合夸克AI浏览器成为桌面级智能助理。</p>
<p><strong>技术与模型:</strong>发布并开源Qwen3系列模型多次登顶全球开源模型榜首。旗舰版Qwen2.5-Max预训练数据超过20万亿tokens。</p>
<p><strong>生态与应用:</strong>头部物流企业(圆通、顺丰等)已全部接入。中科院多个研究机构接入。核心商业伙伴包括石基信息(酒店)、数据港/杭钢股份(算力)、值得买(数据服务)等。</p>
<p><strong>市场影响力:</strong>千问API调用量跃居全球第四超越OpenAI。开源模型下载量突破2亿衍生模型数量突破10万稳居全球第一。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card rounded-2xl">
<input type="radio" name="my-accordion-2" id="roadshow-details" />
<label for="roadshow-details" class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium font-oxanium text-white">
路演纪要精粹
</label>
<div class="collapse-content text-gray-400">
<div class="p-4 space-y-2">
<p><strong>性能对比 (2025-04-29):</strong> 在Agent测评中千问3在阿里自有平台优化下表现优异但在第三方中立平台表现不稳。DeepSeek的Cloud模型可同时控制100个软件目前最强。国内模型梯队被认为是Cloud > DeepSeek V3 > 千问3 > 豆包。</p>
<p><strong>成本对比 (2025-02-03):</strong> 阿里Max模型100万Token收费44.5元是DeepSeek的5.6倍。推理速度慢于V3训练成本更高。</p>
<p><strong>战略升级 (2025-11-26):</strong> “通义”全面升级为“千问”战略重心由ToB延伸至ToC目标打造DAU破亿的通用Chatbot并计划全球发布。</p>
<p><strong>APP战略 (2025-11-25):</strong> 千问App目标不是问答而是“城市入口的入口”。商业路径是通过屏幕理解+Agent直接调用淘宝、天猫、支付宝等自有APP实现“拍照→比价→自动下单→支付→物流”闭环。</p>
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券商研报观点
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<p><strong>项目定位与市场表现:</strong>定位为“阿里最强大模型官方AI助手”公测上线两天冲入App Store总榜第三。反映了阿里AI战略重心向C端倾斜。</p>
<p><strong>商业目标:</strong>希望借助Qwen开源优势赢得竞争并打通阿里应用生态建立商业闭环。未来一到两年内有望被打造成新的高频超级入口。</p>
<p><strong>技术基础:</strong>旗舰级模型Qwen3-Max参数量突破1万亿与GPT-4规模差距缩小。通义千问2.5性能全面赶超GPT-4 Turbo。</p>
<p><strong>生态系统:</strong>通义系列模型已成为全球第一大开源模型族累计下载量突破6亿次。希望借助零售、外卖、旅行等完备生态实现全局突破。</p>
<p><strong>算力投入:</strong>未来三年将投入超3800亿元建设云和AI硬件基础设施。千问APP使用量放大将带动AI算力投资进一步扩张。</p>
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<h2 class="text-3xl text-center font-bold font-oxanium text-white mb-8">相关概念股全景</h2>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold font-oxanium text-primary mb-4">涨幅异动分析</h3>
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<span class="badge badge-error badge-outline">+10.02%</span>
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<p class="text-sm mt-2"><strong>驱动:</strong>阿里千问AI to C生态映射+中央党政军AI平台首单双重催化下成为AI应用补涨龙头。</p>
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-white">石基信息 (002153)</h4>
<span class="badge badge-warning badge-outline">逻辑最纯粹</span>
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<p class="text-sm mt-2"><strong>驱动:</strong>国内酒店信息管理系统龙头阿里为二股东。千问APP酒店预订功能将直接调用其系统受益路径直接。</p>
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-white">数据港 (603881)</h4>
<span class="badge badge-success badge-outline">确定性高</span>
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<p class="text-sm mt-2"><strong>驱动:</strong>与阿里深度合作共建数据中心是阿里AI算力扩张的直接“卖铲人”受益逻辑确定性高。</p>
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