Files
vf_react/public/htmls/DeepSeek、国产算力.html
2025-12-05 13:29:18 +08:00

399 lines
27 KiB
HTML
Raw Blame History

This file contains ambiguous Unicode characters

This file contains Unicode characters that might be confused with other characters. If you think that this is intentional, you can safely ignore this warning. Use the Escape button to reveal them.

<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="deepspace">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<title>DeepSeek & 国产算力 | 深度行研报告</title>
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.13.10/dist/cdn.min.js" defer></script>
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.10.2/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com">
<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.gstatic.com" crossorigin>
<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Space+Grotesk:wght@300;400;500;700&display=swap" rel="stylesheet">
<style>
body {
font-family: 'Space Grotesk', sans-serif;
background-color: #0c0a1a;
color: #e0e6f0;
overflow-x: hidden;
}
@layer base {
[data-theme="deepspace"] {
--p: 128, 90, 213; /* primary - purple */
--pc: 232, 230, 227; /* primary-content */
--s: 22, 163, 74; /* secondary - green */
--sc: 232, 230, 227; /* secondary-content */
--a: 59, 130, 246; /* accent - blue */
--ac: 232, 230, 227; /* accent-content */
--n: 23, 23, 23; /* neutral */
--nc: 232, 230, 227;
--b1: 12, 10, 26; /* base-100 */
--b2: 24, 21, 48;
--b3: 36, 32, 70;
--bc: 224, 230, 240; /* base-content */
--in: 59, 130, 246; /* info */
--su: 22, 163, 74; /* success */
--wa: 251, 146, 60; /* warning */
--er: 244, 63, 94; /* error */
}
}
.glass-card {
background: rgba(20, 15, 45, 0.45);
backdrop-filter: blur(12px);
-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(12px);
border: 1px solid rgba(128, 90, 213, 0.2);
box-shadow: 0 0 40px rgba(128, 90, 213, 0.1);
}
.title-glow {
text-shadow: 0 0 8px rgba(59, 130, 246, 0.8), 0 0 16px rgba(59, 130, 246, 0.6);
}
.purple-glow {
text-shadow: 0 0 6px rgba(168, 85, 247, 0.9), 0 0 10px rgba(168, 85, 247, 0.5);
}
.background-aurora {
position: fixed;
top: 0;
left: 0;
width: 100%;
height: 100vh;
z-index: -1;
background: #0c0a1a;
background-image:
radial-gradient(ellipse 50% 40% at 20% 30%, rgba(128, 90, 213, 0.15), transparent),
radial-gradient(ellipse 40% 30% at 80% 70%, rgba(59, 130, 246, 0.15), transparent),
radial-gradient(ellipse 20% 20% at 50% 50%, rgba(22, 163, 74, 0.1), transparent);
pointer-events: none;
}
.timeline {
position: relative;
padding-left: 2rem;
}
.timeline::before {
content: '';
position: absolute;
left: 0;
top: 0;
bottom: 0;
width: 2px;
background-image: linear-gradient(to bottom, rgba(128, 90, 213, 0), rgba(128, 90, 213, 1) 20%, rgba(128, 90, 213, 1) 80%, rgba(128, 90, 213, 0));
}
.timeline-item {
position: relative;
margin-bottom: 2rem;
}
.timeline-item::before {
content: '';
position: absolute;
left: -2rem;
top: 5px;
width: 12px;
height: 12px;
border-radius: 50%;
background-color: #805ad5;
border: 2px solid #0c0a1a;
transform: translateX(-50%);
box-shadow: 0 0 10px #805ad5;
}
.table thead th, .table tbody td {
background-color: transparent !important;
border-color: rgba(128, 90, 213, 0.2) !important;
}
.table tbody tr:hover {
background-color: rgba(128, 90, 213, 0.1) !important;
}
</style>
</head>
<body class="min-h-screen">
<div class="background-aurora"></div>
<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
<header class="text-center mb-12">
<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold title-glow">DeepSeek · 国产算力</h1>
<p class="text-lg md:text-xl text-blue-300 mt-4">价值重估的奇点:从追随者到生态主导者</p>
<div class="mt-2 text-sm text-gray-400">
北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent“价小前投研” 呈现
</div>
</header>
<main class="space-y-8">
<!-- Bento Grid -->
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-4 gap-6">
<!-- 核心观点摘要 -->
<div class="lg:col-span-2 lg:row-span-2 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 flex flex-col">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-violet-300 mb-4 purple-glow">核心观点摘要</h2>
<p class="text-base text-gray-300 flex-grow">
DeepSeek的崛起是引爆国产算力价值重估的“<strong class="text-accent">应用侧奇点</strong>它通过世界级的模型性能和前瞻性的技术路线如FP8精度首次为性能尚有差距的国产芯片提供了证明其“可用性”与“经济性”的商业化场景。
<br><br>
当前,该概念正从“主题炒作”向“<strong class="text-success">基本面验证</strong>”的早期阶段过渡,其核心驱动力是“<strong class="text-info">Jevons悖论</strong>”(效率提升激发总需求爆发)与国产替代的<strong class="text-info">双重逻辑叠加</strong>
<br><br>
未来潜力巨大,但短期面临<strong class="text-error">先进制程产能</strong><strong class="text-error">生态成熟度</strong>两大核心瓶颈的严峻考验。
</p>
</div>
<!-- 核心驱动力 -->
<div class="lg:col-span-2 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-violet-300 mb-3 purple-glow">核心驱动力:正向飞轮的构建</h3>
<ul class="space-y-3 text-sm text-gray-300">
<li><strong class="text-accent">技术突破的可能性:</strong> 算法与工程优化证明不必完全依赖顶级GPU为国产芯片性能约H100的40%-60%)打开机会窗口。</li>
<li><strong class="text-success">成本下降的必要性:</strong> 低价API与开源策略触发“杰文斯悖论”应用爆发创造海量高性价比算力需求国产方案成商业必然。</li>
<li><strong class="text-info">地缘政治的确定性:</strong> 技术封锁使国产算力具备极高政策确定性与市场紧迫性DeepSeek为产业链注入信心和方向。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<!-- 预期差分析 -->
<div class="lg:col-span-2 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-warning mb-3">关键预期差:宏大叙事 vs. 产业现实</h3>
<ul class="space-y-3 text-sm text-gray-300">
<li><strong class="text-warning">性能差距与实际成本:</strong> 市场低估了实现同等性能所需的国产硬件堆叠成本如部署V3需32块昇腾NPU成本高于H800方案</li>
<li><strong class="text-error">需求爆发与产能瓶颈:</strong> 市场最大程度忽视的核心风险——<strong class="text-red-400">中芯国际先进制程产能严重受限</strong>,需求的“天花板”可能远低于预期。</li>
<li><strong class="text-warning">开放生态与技术依赖:</strong> DeepSeek训练深度依赖NVIDIA生态(CUDA/PTX)模型移植至国产芯片需重写代码耗时2-6个月生态独立性远未成熟。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<!-- 催化事件时间轴 -->
<div class="lg:col-span-3 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-violet-300 mb-4 purple-glow">催化事件时间轴</h3>
<div class="timeline text-sm">
<div class="timeline-item">
<p class="font-semibold text-accent">2024-12-26: 技术突破</p>
<p class="text-gray-400">发布并开源DeepSeek-V3以MoE架构和FP8精度展示了算法弥补硬件差距的可能性。</p>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item">
<p class="font-semibold text-accent">2025-02-03: 生态适配启动</p>
<p class="text-gray-400">海光、云天励飞、优刻得等密集宣布完成对DeepSeek模型的适配国产算力从“能跑”向“好用”迈出关键一步。</p>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item">
<p class="font-semibold text-accent">2025-08-22: 软硬协同</p>
<p class="text-gray-400">发布V3.1明确UE8M0 FP8精度“为下一代国产芯片设计”标志着软硬件“相向而行”。</p>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item">
<p class="font-semibold text-accent">2025-10-09: 生态成熟</p>
<p class="text-gray-400">发布V3.2-Exp华为昇腾与寒武纪实现“Day0适配”展示国产算力生态前所未有的成熟度。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 未来催化剂 -->
<div class="lg:col-span-1 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-violet-300 mb-3 purple-glow">未来关键催化剂</h3>
<ul class="space-y-3 text-sm text-gray-300 list-disc list-inside">
<li class="text-success">下一代国产芯片发布原生FP8支持</li>
<li class="text-info">标杆性商业应用落地千万级DAU</li>
<li class="text-error">中芯国际产能突破N+2良率/产量)</li>
<li class="text-accent">国家级信创AI采购目录更新</li>
</ul>
</div>
<!-- 数据摘要 -->
<div x-data="{ tab: 'news' }" class="lg:col-span-3 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
<div class="tabs tabs-boxed bg-black/20 mb-4">
<a class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'news'}" @click="tab = 'news'">新闻摘要</a>
<a class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'roadshow'}" @click="tab = 'roadshow'">路演纪要</a>
<a class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'report'}" @click="tab = 'report'">研报精粹</a>
</div>
<div class="text-sm text-gray-300 space-y-2 min-h-[180px]">
<div x-show="tab === 'news'">
<p><strong class="text-accent">市场反应:</strong>概念指数春节后飙涨逾40%,算力产业链方向涨势迅猛。</p>
<p><strong class="text-accent">需求转变:</strong>推动算力需求从“训练主导”转到“推理主导”,从“买起来”到“用起来”。</p>
<p><strong class="text-accent">Jevons悖论</strong>推理成本降低激发潜在需求,导致算力总需求量指数级增加。</p>
<p><strong class="text-accent">软硬协同:</strong>V3.1明确提及UE8M0 FP8为下一代国产芯片设计释放国产芯片性能。</p>
<p><strong class="text-accent">生态适配:</strong>海光、云天励飞、弘信电子(燧原)、优刻得(壁仞)等迅速完成适配部署。</p>
</div>
<div x-show="tab === 'roadshow'" style="display: none;">
<p><strong class="text-warning">核心矛盾:</strong>并非“算力通缩”,而是通过降本增效<strong class="text-success">解放和重构</strong>了算力需求,是国产算力的历史性机遇。</p>
<p><strong class="text-error">产能瓶颈:</strong>华为昇腾910C出货量受制于<strong class="text-red-400">中芯国际N+2工艺产能</strong>约5-7万片/月),难以支撑激进出货目标。</p>
<p><strong class="text-warning">性能现实:</strong>昇腾910C性能约A100的40-50%。适配后性能提升至80-100%,但仍有差距且需额外工程优化。</p>
<p><strong class="text-error">生态依赖:</strong>训练仍深度依赖NVIDIACUDA/PTX移植至国产芯片如寒武纪需重写代码耗时2-6个月且效果可能打折。</p>
</div>
<div x-show="tab === 'report'" style="display: none;">
<p><strong class="text-info">技术路线:</strong>采用MoE架构、FP8混合精度训练、DSA稀疏注意力等实现算力成本下降90%。</p>
<p><strong class="text-success">生态进展:</strong>已与18家国产AI芯片企业完成适配包括华为昇腾、沐曦、天数智芯等。</p>
<p><strong class="text-success">Day0适配</strong>V3.2发布当天,寒武纪与昇腾即同步实现适配,表明国产算力软件生态建设加速完善。</p>
<p><strong class="text-info">商业模式:</strong>披露AI大模型理论成本利润率高达545%验证MaaS模式盈利潜力。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Chart -->
<div class="lg:col-span-1 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 flex flex-col justify-center items-center">
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-violet-300 mb-3 text-center purple-glow">国产芯片性能预估</h3>
<div id="perfChart" class="w-full h-48"></div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 产业链图谱 -->
<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-center text-violet-300 mb-6 purple-glow">产业链全景图谱</h2>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6 text-center">
<div class="border border-blue-500/30 rounded-2xl p-4">
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-blue-300">上游:核心硬件与设计</h3>
<div class="mt-2 space-y-1 text-sm">
<p><strong class="text-gray-300">AI芯片设计:</strong> 华为(昇腾), 海光信息(DCU), 寒武纪(MLU)</p>
<p><strong class="text-gray-300">芯片制造:</strong> 中芯国际 (核心瓶颈)</p>
<p><strong class="text-gray-300">IP与EDA:</strong> 芯原股份</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="border border-purple-500/30 rounded-2xl p-4">
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-purple-300">中游:算力基础设施</h3>
<div class="mt-2 space-y-1 text-sm">
<p><strong class="text-gray-300">AI服务器:</strong> 浪潮信息, 中科曙光</p>
<p><strong class="text-gray-300">数据中心:</strong> 润泽科技, 优刻得, 运营商</p>
<p><strong class="text-gray-300">核心零部件:</strong> 华丰科技 (连接器), 曙光数创 (液冷)</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="border border-green-500/30 rounded-2xl p-4">
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-green-300">下游:模型、应用与服务</h3>
<div class="mt-2 space-y-1 text-sm">
<p><strong class="text-gray-300">大模型:</strong> DeepSeek</p>
<p><strong class="text-gray-300">云服务/算力租赁:</strong> 华为云, 阿里云, 首都在线</p>
<p><strong class="text-gray-300">应用开发:</strong> 金山办公, 科大讯飞, 拓尔思</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- 核心玩家对比 -->
<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-center text-violet-300 mb-6 purple-glow">核心玩家深度剖析</h2>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
<div class="p-4 rounded-2xl bg-black/20">
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-red-400">华为 (昇腾链)</h4>
<p class="text-sm mt-2"><strong class="text-success">优势:</strong> 全栈能力(芯片到云服务)生态号召力最强工程能力卓越Day0适配</p>
<p class="text-sm mt-1"><strong class="text-error">风险:</strong> 命脉被中芯国际产能死死扼住,是最大不确定性。</p>
</div>
<div class="p-4 rounded-2xl bg-black/20">
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-blue-400">海光信息 (海光链)</h4>
<p class="text-sm mt-2"><strong class="text-success">优势:</strong> 类CUDA架构对NVIDIA生态迁移友好通用性强适配速度快。</p>
<p class="text-sm mt-1"><strong class="text-error">风险:</strong> 技术路线部分依赖海外授权,自主可控程度稍弱。</p>
</div>
<div class="p-4 rounded-2xl bg-black/20">
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-purple-400">寒武纪 (寒武链)</h4>
<p class="text-sm mt-2"><strong class="text-success">优势:</strong> 逻辑最纯粹的AI芯片标的技术积累深厚MLU架构具备效率优势。</p>
<p class="text-sm mt-1"><strong class="text-error">风险:</strong> 商业化与生态建设相对落后,持续亏损带来经营压力。</p>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- 股票数据 -->
<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-center text-violet-300 mb-6 purple-glow">相关概念股列表</h2>
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
<table class="table table-sm">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="text-base-content">股票名称</th>
<th class="text-base-content">股票代码</th>
<th class="text-base-content">核心逻辑</th>
<th class="text-base-content">产业链标签</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<!-- AI芯片核心 -->
<tr class="font-bold bg-purple-900/10"><td colspan="4" class="text-center text-purple-300">AI芯片核心</td></tr>
<tr><td>寒武纪</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688256" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-accent">688256</a></td><td>一体机通过DeepSeek适配产品支持FP8MLU芯片。</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary">DeepSeek适配</div> <div class="badge badge-secondary">寒武链</div></td></tr>
<tr><td>海光信息</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688041" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-accent">688041</a></td><td>DCU加速卡通过DeepSeek适配海光产业链核心。</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary">DeepSeek适配</div> <div class="badge badge-info">海光链</div></td></tr>
<!-- 昇腾产业链 -->
<tr class="font-bold bg-red-900/10"><td colspan="4" class="text-center text-red-300">昇腾产业链</td></tr>
<tr><td>高新发展</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000628" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-accent">000628</a></td><td>昇腾产业链核心标的。</td><td><div class="badge badge-error">昇腾链</div></td></tr>
<tr><td>华丰科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688629" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-accent">688629</a></td><td>昇腾及华为产业链核心供应商。</td><td><div class="badge badge-error">昇腾链</div> <div class="badge badge-neutral">华为链</div></td></tr>
<!-- 基础设施与服务 -->
<tr class="font-bold bg-green-900/10"><td colspan="4" class="text-center text-green-300">基础设施与服务</td></tr>
<tr><td>浪潮信息</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000977" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-accent">000977</a></td><td>为DeepSeek智算中心提供AI服务器集群。</td><td><div class="badge badge-secondary">寒武链</div> <div class="badge badge-success">AI服务器</div></td></tr>
<tr><td>中科曙光</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603019" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-accent">603019</a></td><td>海光产业链承建DeepSeek训练中心液冷系统。</td><td><div class="badge badge-info">海光链</div> <div class="badge badge-success">液冷</div></td></tr>
<tr><td>润泽科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300442" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-accent">300442</a></td><td>为DeepSeek提供3000+机柜资源。</td><td><div class="badge badge-success">数据中心</div></td></tr>
<!-- 应用与合作 -->
<tr class="font-bold bg-blue-900/10"><td colspan="4" class="text-center text-blue-300">应用与合作</td></tr>
<tr><td>金山办公</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688111" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-accent">688111</a></td><td>WPS智能写作功能集成DeepSeek-Writer API。</td><td><div class="badge badge-accent">垂直应用</div></td></tr>
<tr><td>科大讯飞</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002230" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-accent">002230</a></td><td>教育场景接入DeepSeek-Math模型。</td><td><div class="badge badge-accent">垂直应用</div></td></tr>
<tr><td>拓尔思</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300229" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-accent">300229</a></td><td>与DeepSeek联合开发金融舆情大模型。</td><td><div class="badge badge-accent">垂直应用</div> <div class="badge badge-ghost">知识蒸馏</div></td></tr>
<tr><td>安恒信息</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688023" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-accent">688023</a></td><td>发布首个“DeepSeek版”安全智能体。</td><td><div class="badge badge-accent">垂直应用</div></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</section>
</main>
<footer class="text-center mt-12 text-xs text-gray-500">
<p>本报告由北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent“价小前投研” 合成生成。</p>
<p>数据来源:公开新闻、路演纪要、研究报告及市场数据。报告内容仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议,投资需谨慎。</p>
</footer>
</div>
<script>
document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function () {
var chartDom = document.getElementById('perfChart');
var myChart = echarts.init(chartDom);
var option;
option = {
tooltip: {
trigger: 'axis',
axisPointer: {
type: 'shadow'
},
backgroundColor: 'rgba(20, 15, 45, 0.8)',
borderColor: 'rgba(128, 90, 213, 0.5)',
textStyle: {
color: '#e0e6f0'
}
},
grid: {
left: '3%',
right: '4%',
bottom: '3%',
containLabel: true
},
xAxis: {
type: 'value',
boundaryGap: [0, 0.01],
axisLabel: { color: '#8A919F' },
splitLine: {
lineStyle: {
color: 'rgba(128, 90, 213, 0.1)'
}
}
},
yAxis: {
type: 'category',
data: ['国产芯片 (适配后)', '国产芯片 (原生)'],
axisLabel: { color: '#e0e6f0' }
},
series: [
{
name: '相对NVIDIA H100性能',
type: 'bar',
data: [80, 50],
itemStyle: {
color: new echarts.graphic.LinearGradient(0, 0, 1, 0, [
{ offset: 0, color: 'rgba(59, 130, 246, 0.6)' },
{ offset: 1, color: 'rgba(59, 130, 246, 1)' }
])
},
label: {
show: true,
position: 'right',
formatter: '{c}%',
color: '#e0e6f0'
}
}
]
};
option && myChart.setOption(option);
window.addEventListener('resize', myChart.resize);
});
</script>
</body>
</html>