462 lines
30 KiB
HTML
462 lines
30 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>流感 (Influenza) - AI 深度投研报告</title>
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<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.10.2/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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body {
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font-family: 'Manrope', sans-serif;
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background-color: #000212;
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color: #E0E1E6;
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overflow-x: hidden;
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font-family: 'Space Grotesk', sans-serif;
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gap: 1.5rem;
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border-radius: 1.5rem; /* 极致的圆角 */
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.table td, .table th {
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.rise-reason p {
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margin-bottom: 0.5rem;
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="min-h-screen">
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<div class="glow-effect glow-1"></div>
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<div class="glow-effect glow-2"></div>
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<main class="relative z-10 p-4 sm:p-6 md:p-8 lg:p-12">
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<header class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="font-display text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold tracking-tighter text-white animate-fade-in-down">
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流感 (Influenza)
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</h1>
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<p class="mt-4 text-lg text-gray-300 max-w-3xl mx-auto">AI 深度投研报告</p>
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<p class="mt-2 text-xs text-gray-500">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent:“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现,本报告为AI合成数据,投资需谨慎。</p>
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</header>
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<!-- Insight 核心观点 -->
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<section class="bento-item bento-span-12 glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="section-title font-display">核心观点与市场解析 (Concept Insight)</h2>
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<div class="prose-custom max-w-none">
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<p class="text-lg">“流感”概念是一次由<strong>真实公共卫生事件驱动的、兼具短期业绩兑现和长期产业升级逻辑的周期性主题</strong>。其核心驱动力源于“免疫落差”背景下,由H3N2新优势毒株引发的超预期疫情,直接引爆了从预防(疫苗)、检测到治疗(抗病毒药、OTC)的全产业链需求。未来潜力在于,本次疫情将加速<strong>创新抗病毒药物对传统药物的替代</strong>,并可能成为推动中国<strong>流感疫苗接种率</strong>从低位向发达国家水平靠拢的长期催化剂。</p>
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<h3 class="sub-title">核心驱动力与预期差分析</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>公共卫生事件驱动:</strong> 经历数年高级别呼吸道防护后,人群“免疫债”效应显现,叠加与往年不同的<strong>H3N2</strong>优势毒株流行,导致感染率超出常规预期,形成了“流感大年”的基本面。</li>
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<li><strong>产业链需求传导:</strong> 疫情爆发直接转化为对医药产品的刚性需求。逻辑链条清晰:`疫情加重 → 就诊人数上升 → 病毒检测与药品销售放量 → 上游原料药及生产商业绩提升`。</li>
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<li><strong>产业升级迭代:</strong> 奥司他韦等传统药物面临耐药性担忧,为<strong>玛巴洛沙韦(速福达)</strong>、<strong>昂拉地韦</strong>等作用机制更新、服用更便捷的RNA聚合酶抑制剂提供了市场切入和替代的绝佳窗口。</li>
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<li><strong>预期差分析 (Hype vs. Reality):</strong>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 mt-2 space-y-2">
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<li><strong>炒作与现实:</strong> 市场快速反应,但部分公司基本面无法支撑。典型如<strong>北大医药</strong>,因“拥有奥司他韦批文”涨停,但公司公告明确指出<strong>“尚未组织生产销售”</strong>,表明部分上涨是纯情绪驱动。</li>
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<li><strong>耐药性认知:</strong> 市场普遍担忧奥司他韦耐药性(提及“中国耐药比例超30%”),但路演专家援引WHO数据指出全球甲流耐药率<10%,表明新药的核心优势可能更多在于“单次服药、快速起效”。</li>
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<li><strong>短期业绩 vs. 长期价值:</strong> 市场关注短期业绩爆发,但可能忽略了<strong>中国流感疫苗接种率仅为3%-4%</strong>(远低于美国的50%)所蕴含的长期增长空间。本次疫情或成为提升疫苗渗透率的长期拐点。</li>
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</ul>
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</li>
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</ul>
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<h3 class="sub-title">关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h3>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-bold text-indigo-300">近期催化剂 (3-6个月)</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 mt-2 space-y-1">
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<li>每周/每月疾控数据发布,直接影响市场情绪。</li>
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<li>创新药商业化进展(如昂拉地韦儿童适应症申报、济可舒渠道铺货)。</li>
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<li>上市公司2024Q4及2025Q1业绩报告,验证逻辑兑现。</li>
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<li>乙型流感是否接力甲流,延长主题生命周期。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-bold text-green-300">长期发展路径</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 mt-2 space-y-1">
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<li><strong>治疗端:</strong> 创新药(昂拉地韦等)通过医保、拓宽适应症等方式加速替代奥司他韦。</li>
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<li><strong>预防端:</strong> 疫苗渗透率提升,依赖政策推动(扩大免费接种)、产品创新(鼻喷疫苗)和国产替代(填补赛诺菲空白)。</li>
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<li><strong>诊断端:</strong> 流感、新冠、RSV等多联检产品家庭自测和临床应用成为趋势。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<h3 class="sub-title">潜在风险与挑战</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 space-y-2">
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<li><strong>技术风险:</strong> 病毒持续变异可能导致疫苗效力下降或药物出现耐药性;新药研发存在失败风险。</li>
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<li><strong>商业化风险:</strong> 季节性需求波动导致库存减值风险;医保控费与集采压力侵蚀利润空间(研报提及四价流感疫苗已降价20-30%)。</li>
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<li><strong>信息交叉验证风险(矛盾点):</strong>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 mt-2">
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<li><strong>奥司他韦耐药性:</strong> 新闻数据(“超30%”)与专家引用WHO数据(“<10%”)存在明显矛盾,需审慎评估新药替代逻辑的紧迫性。</li>
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<li><strong>全球疫情强度:</strong> 部分新闻渲染“全球蔓延”,但专家纪要明确指出“全球流感整体发病水平较低”,表明本轮疫情主要集中在中国等特定区域。</li>
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</ul>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 疫情趋势图表 -->
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<section class="bento-item bento-span-8 glass-card p-6">
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<h3 class="font-display text-xl font-bold text-white mb-4">中国流感样病例(ILI)占比趋势</h3>
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<div id="flu-chart" style="width: 100%; height: 350px;"></div>
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</section>
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<!-- 关键疫情数据 -->
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<section class="bento-item bento-span-4 glass-card p-6 flex flex-col justify-between">
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-display text-xl font-bold text-white mb-4">关键疫情数据摘要</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-gray-300">
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<svg class="w-5 h-5 mr-2 mt-1 text-blue-400 flex-shrink-0" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M13 16h-1v-4h-1m1-4h.01M21 12a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z"></path></svg>
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<span><strong>中国:</strong> 南北方流感病例占比达近四年同期最高,北方(7.0%)高于南方(6.7%)。</span>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<svg class="w-5 h-5 mr-2 mt-1 text-amber-400 flex-shrink-0" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M13 16h-1v-4h-1m1-4h.01M21 12a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z"></path></svg>
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<span><strong>主要毒株:</strong> 甲型H3N2亚型占比超过95%,与前几年H1N1不同。</span>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<svg class="w-5 h-5 mr-2 mt-1 text-red-400 flex-shrink-0" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M13 16h-1v-4h-1m1-4h.01M21 12a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z"></path></svg>
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<span><strong>日本:</strong> 流感季提前5周爆发,医疗机构病例数为1999年来同期最高。</span>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="mt-4 text-xs text-gray-400">数据来源: 新闻及研报综合</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 产业链与核心药物 -->
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<section class="bento-item bento-span-12 glass-card p-6 md:p-8" x-data="{ tab: 'vaccine' }">
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<h2 class="section-title font-display">产业链与核心药物 (Industry & Key Drugs)</h2>
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<div class="tabs tabs-boxed bg-black/20">
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<a class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'vaccine' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'vaccine'">预防-疫苗</a>
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<a class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'antiviral' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'antiviral'">治疗-抗病毒化学药</a>
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<a class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'tcm' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'tcm'">治疗-中成药及其他</a>
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</div>
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<div class="mt-6">
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<div x-show="tab === 'vaccine'" x-transition>
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg mb-4 text-cyan-300">流感疫苗 (Vaccines)</h4>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-4 text-sm">
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<p><strong>华兰疫苗:</strong> 年产1亿剂四价流感疫苗,批签发量国内前列。</p>
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<p><strong>百克生物:</strong> 国内独家冻干鼻喷流感减毒活疫苗,提升接种便利性。</p>
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<p><strong>金迪克:</strong> 四价流感疫苗年产能1000万人份。</p>
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<p><strong>复星医药/欧林生物等:</strong> 亦在三价/四价疫苗领域有布局或临床进展。</p>
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<p><strong>市场机遇:</strong> 赛诺菲退出留下千万剂市场缺口,为国产疫苗提供增量空间。</p>
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<p><strong>长期逻辑:</strong> 我国接种率仅3-4%,远低于美国(50%),提升空间巨大。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'antiviral'" x-transition>
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg mb-4 text-lime-300">抗病毒化学药 (Antivirals)</h4>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-x-8 gap-y-4">
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<div>
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<h5 class="font-semibold text-white">奥司他韦类 (神经氨酸酶抑制剂)</h5>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">临床应用最广,性价比高。相关公司:哈药股份、金石亚药、普洛药业等。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h5 class="font-semibold text-white">玛巴洛沙韦类 (RNA聚合酶抑制剂)</h5>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">单次服药,快速起效。相关公司:东北制药、莱美药业(仿制药);济川药业(创新药玛硒洛沙韦)。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h5 class="font-semibold text-white">1类创新药 (PB2抑制剂等)</h5>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">全球首个PB2抑制剂,抗病毒活性强。核心公司:<strong>众生药业 (昂拉地韦片)</strong>。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h5 class="font-semibold text-white">广谱抗病毒药</h5>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">适用于新型或再次流行的流感。相关公司:海正药业 (法维拉韦片)。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'tcm'" x-transition>
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg mb-4 text-fuchsia-300">中成药及对症药物 (TCM & Symptomatic)</h4>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-4 text-sm">
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<p><strong>市场格局:</strong> 华润三九(市占率约28%,第一)、以岭药业(第二)。</p>
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<p><strong>金石亚药:</strong> 拥有知名感冒药品牌“快克”和“小快克”。</p>
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<p><strong>特一药业:</strong> 核心产品“特一”牌止咳宝片。</p>
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<p><strong>亨迪药业:</strong> 主要产品包括布洛芬原料药及制剂。</p>
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<p><strong>葵花药业:</strong> 葵花牌小儿肺热咳喘口服液。</p>
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<p><strong>其他:</strong> 珍宝岛(双黄连)、沃华医药(抗病毒口服液)等。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 涨幅异动分析 -->
|
||
<section class="bento-item bento-span-12 glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title font-display">重点个股异动分析 (Rise Analysis)</h2>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
|
||
<!-- Card 1: 北大医药 -->
|
||
<div class="bg-black/20 p-5 rounded-2xl border border-white/10">
|
||
<div class="flex justify-between items-center mb-3">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-white">北大医药 (000788)</h4>
|
||
<span class="badge badge-error badge-outline">+9.93%</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="text-sm text-gray-300 rise-reason prose-custom max-w-none">
|
||
<p><strong>核心结论:</strong> 一次典型的“事件驱动+题材炒作”行情。上涨基于其拥有奥司他韦批文的概念,但公司公告明确“尚未组织生产销售”,是典型的<strong>Hype vs. Reality</strong>案例,风险较高。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<!-- Card 2: 莱茵生物 -->
|
||
<div class="bg-black/20 p-5 rounded-2xl border border-white/10">
|
||
<div class="flex justify-between items-center mb-3">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-white">莱茵生物 (002166)</h4>
|
||
<span class="badge badge-warning badge-outline">+6.42%</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="text-sm text-gray-300 rise-reason prose-custom max-w-none">
|
||
<p><strong>核心结论:</strong> 上涨核心是市场将其认知为流感药“达菲”关键原料(莽草酸)的供应商,属于产业链上游的逻辑延伸。行情由外部公共卫生事件引爆,投机性较重,持续性依赖疫情热度。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<!-- Card 3: 嘉应制药 -->
|
||
<div class="bg-black/20 p-5 rounded-2xl border border-white/10">
|
||
<div class="flex justify-between items-center mb-3">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-white">嘉应制药 (002198)</h4>
|
||
<span class="badge badge-error badge-outline">+10.05%</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="text-sm text-gray-300 rise-reason prose-custom max-w-none">
|
||
<p><strong>核心结论:</strong> “流感高峰提前+官方储备目录”双重催化下,资金对低价小市值流感中成药品种的快速套利。公司多款产品入选国家及省级流感储备目录,直接受益于渠道补库预期。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 股票数据表格 -->
|
||
<section class="mt-12 glass-card p-6 md:p-8 rounded-3xl">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title font-display">核心产业链标的 (Core Industry Chain Stocks)</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑</th>
|
||
<th>标签</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<!-- 疫苗 -->
|
||
<tr><td colspan="4" class="font-bold bg-slate-800/50 text-white">预防 - 疫苗</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>百克生物</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688276" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">688276</a></td><td>国内独家经鼻喷方式接种的流感减毒活疫苗</td><td><div class="badge badge-info">疫苗</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>华兰疫苗</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301207" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">301207</a></td><td>年产一亿剂四价流感疫苗的产能,批签发批次数量居国内前列</td><td><div class="badge badge-info">疫苗</div> <div class="badge badge-primary">龙头</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>金迪克</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688670" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">688670</a></td><td>四价流感疫苗年产能为1000万人份</td><td><div class="badge badge-info">疫苗</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>复星医药</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600196" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">600196</a></td><td>子公司三价、四价流感病毒裂解疫苗已获批上市</td><td><div class="badge badge-info">疫苗</div></td></tr>
|
||
<!-- 抗病毒化学药 -->
|
||
<tr><td colspan="4" class="font-bold bg-slate-800/50 text-white">治疗 - 抗病毒化学药</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>众生药业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002317" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">002317</a></td><td>1类创新药昂拉地韦片(全球首个PB2抑制剂),适用于甲型流感</td><td><div class="badge badge-success">1类创新药</div> <div class="badge badge-primary">核心</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>济川药业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600566" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">600566</a></td><td>1类创新药玛硒洛沙韦片获批上市,适用于甲乙型流感</td><td><div class="badge badge-success">1类创新药</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>东北制药</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000597" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">000597</a></td><td>玛巴洛沙韦处于注册申报评审阶段</td><td><div class="badge badge-accent">玛巴洛沙韦</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>金石亚药</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300434" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">300434</a></td><td>新品“快克清”磷酸奥司他韦胶囊;拥有“快克”品牌</td><td><div class="badge badge-secondary">奥司他韦</div> <div class="badge badge-warning">品牌OTC</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>哈药股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600664" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">600664</a></td><td>磷酸奥司他韦干混悬剂、双黄连口服液</td><td><div class="badge badge-secondary">奥司他韦</div> <div class="badge badge-ghost">中成药</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>海正药业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600267" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">600267</a></td><td>法维拉韦片(RNA聚合酶抑制剂),广谱抗病毒,已进医保</td><td><div class="badge badge-accent">广谱</div></td></tr>
|
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<!-- 中成药及其他 -->
|
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<tr><td colspan="4" class="font-bold bg-slate-800/50 text-white">治疗 - 中成药及对症药物</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>华润三九</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000999" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">000999</a></td><td>感冒类中成药零售市场市占率约28%,第一</td><td><div class="badge badge-warning">品牌OTC</div> <div class="badge badge-primary">龙头</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>以岭药业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002603" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">002603</a></td><td>感冒类中成药零售市场市占率第二</td><td><div class="badge badge-ghost">中成药</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>特一药业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002728" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">002728</a></td><td>核心产品“特一”牌止咳宝片</td><td><div class="badge badge-ghost">止咳</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>亨迪药业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301211" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">301211</a></td><td>制剂和原料药主要产品包括布洛芬</td><td><div class="badge badge-ghost">退热</div> <div class="badge badge-outline">原料药</div></td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
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</table>
|
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</div>
|
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|
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