696 lines
39 KiB
HTML
696 lines
39 KiB
HTML
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="dark">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>己内酰胺行业深度洞察 - 周期底部反转在即</title>
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<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
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<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:wght@300;400;500;600;700&display=swap" rel="stylesheet">
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<link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/font-awesome/6.4.0/css/all.min.css">
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<style>
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@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Noto+Sans+SC:wght@300;400;500;600;700&display=swap');
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* {
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font-family: 'Inter', 'Noto Sans SC', sans-serif;
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}
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.gradient-bg {
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, #667eea 0%, #764ba2 100%);
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animation: gradient 15s ease infinite;
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animation: gradient 15s ease infinite;
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transform: translateY(-8px);
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-webkit-text-fill-color: transparent;
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background-clip: text;
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.table-responsive {
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overflow-x: auto;
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-webkit-overflow-scrolling: touch;
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}
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.table-responsive table {
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min-width: 0;
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@media (max-width: 768px) {
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.table-responsive table {
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font-size: 0.875rem;
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.table-responsive th,
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padding: 0.25rem 0.75rem;
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0%, 100% { opacity: 1; }
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50% { opacity: .5; }
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margin: 3rem 0;
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="bg-gray-900 text-white antialiased">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="gradient-bg text-white py-12 px-6 relative overflow-hidden">
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<div class="container mx-auto max-w-7xl">
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<div class="absolute inset-0 opacity-20">
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<div class="absolute top-0 left-0 w-64 h-64 bg-white rounded-full filter blur-3xl -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2"></div>
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<div class="absolute bottom-0 right-0 w-64 h-64 bg-purple-300 rounded-full filter blur-3xl translate-x-1/2 translate-y-1/2"></div>
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</div>
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<div class="relative z-10 text-center">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold mb-4 tracking-tight">
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己内酰胺行业深度洞察
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</h1>
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<p class="text-xl md:text-2xl opacity-90 max-w-3xl mx-auto mb-6">
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周期底部供需重构 · 反内卷驱动格局优化
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</p>
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<div class="flex flex-wrap justify-center gap-4 mt-8">
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<span class="badge badge-danger pulse">周期底部</span>
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<span class="badge badge-warning">供给收缩</span>
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<span class="badge badge-success">需求刚性</span>
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<span class="badge badge-info">技术突破</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</header>
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<!-- Executive Summary -->
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<section class="py-16 px-6">
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<div class="container mx-auto max-w-7xl">
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<div class="card-hover bg-gray-800 rounded-2xl p-8 shadow-2xl glow mb-12">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-6 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-chart-line text-purple-500 mr-3"></i>
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核心观点摘要
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</h2>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-purple-400">当前格局</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">
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己内酰胺行业处于<span class="highlight-red font-bold">"亏损驱动供给收缩、需求增长托底价格、低效产能出清在即"</span>的周期性拐点。核心矛盾在于行业长期维持84%以上高开工率与接近现金亏损的严重盈利恶化并存。
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</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-green-400">投资主线</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-2 text-gray-300">
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-check-circle text-green-500 mt-1 mr-2 flex-shrink-0"></i>
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<span><strong class="text-white">低成本龙头：</strong>华鲁恒升、鲁西化工</span>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-check-circle text-green-500 mt-1 mr-2 flex-shrink-0"></i>
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<span><strong class="text-white">价格弹性：</strong>旭阳集团、鲁西化工</span>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-check-circle text-green-500 mt-1 mr-2 flex-shrink-0"></i>
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<span><strong class="text-white">技术溢价：</strong>恒逸石化、中国化学</span>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Timeline -->
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<section class="py-16 px-6 bg-gray-800">
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<div class="container mx-auto max-w-7xl">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-12 text-center">
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<span class="highlight-blue">核心时间轴</span>
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</h2>
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<div class="relative">
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<div class="absolute left-1/2 transform -translate-x-1/2 h-full w-1 bg-gradient-to-b from-purple-500 to-pink-500"></div>
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<div class="space-y-12">
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<div class="timeline-item flex items-center justify-center">
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<div class="bg-red-600 p-4 rounded-full z-10 shadow-lg">
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<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle text-white text-xl"></i>
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</div>
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<div class="ml-6 bg-gray-900 p-6 rounded-xl shadow-xl max-w-xl">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-red-400">2025年6月8日</h3>
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<p class="mt-2">平煤神马集团尼龙科技爆炸事故，<span class="highlight-red font-semibold">40万吨/年产能停产（占行业5.6%）</span></p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item flex items-center justify-center">
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<div class="bg-yellow-600 p-4 rounded-full z-10 shadow-lg">
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<i class="fas fa-chart-line text-white text-xl"></i>
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</div>
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<div class="ml-6 bg-gray-900 p-6 rounded-xl shadow-xl max-w-xl">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-yellow-400">2025年10月-11月</h3>
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<p class="mt-2">行业开启"反内卷"自救，开工率降至<span class="highlight-yellow font-semibold">84.6%</span>，11月5日达成减产20%共识，价格立即上涨100元/吨至8150元/吨</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item flex items-center justify-center">
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<div class="bg-green-600 p-4 rounded-full z-10 shadow-lg">
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<i class="fas fa-trending-up text-white text-xl"></i>
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</div>
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<div class="ml-6 bg-gray-900 p-6 rounded-xl shadow-xl max-w-xl">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-green-400">2025年后</h3>
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<p class="mt-2">恒逸钦州60万吨产能完成后，新增产能显著放缓，行业有望<span class="highlight-green font-semibold">企稳回升</span></p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Industry Analysis -->
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<section class="py-16 px-6">
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<div class="container mx-auto max-w-7xl">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-12 text-center">
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<span class="highlight-blue">核心逻辑与市场认知</span>
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</h2>
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<div class="grid lg:grid-cols-3 gap-8">
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<div class="card-hover bg-gray-800 p-8 rounded-2xl shadow-xl">
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<div class="flex items-center mb-6">
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<i class="fas fa-cogs text-purple-500 text-3xl mr-4"></i>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold">核心驱动力</h3>
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</div>
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<div class="space-y-4 text-gray-300">
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<div class="p-4 bg-gray-900 rounded-lg">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-red-400 mb-2">成本曲线陡峭化</h4>
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<p>加工费从6500元/吨暴跌至3000元/吨，行业毛利<span class="highlight-red font-bold">-1653元/吨</span>，但开工率仍维持84.6%</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-gray-900 rounded-lg">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-yellow-400 mb-2">政策引导"反内卷"</h4>
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<p>11月行业会议达成减产20%共识，行政力量介入市场化去产能</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-gray-900 rounded-lg">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-green-400 mb-2">下游需求刚性</h4>
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<p>2025年前10个月表观需求增速<span class="highlight-green font-bold">14%</span>，锦纶纤维替代+工程塑料需求支撑</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="card-hover bg-gray-800 p-8 rounded-2xl shadow-xl">
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<div class="flex items-center mb-6">
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<i class="fas fa-fire text-orange-500 text-3xl mr-4"></i>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold">市场热度</h3>
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</div>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="flex justify-between items-center">
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<span class="text-gray-300">机构研报密度</span>
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<span class="badge badge-danger">极高</span>
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</div>
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<div class="flex justify-between items-center">
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<span class="text-gray-300">情绪分化程度</span>
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<span class="badge badge-warning">显著</span>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-gray-900 rounded-lg mt-4">
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">乐观派强调"反内卷"右侧机会，谨慎派提示需求不及预期风险，基本面派聚焦龙头底部价值</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="card-hover bg-gray-800 p-8 rounded-2xl shadow-xl">
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<div class="flex items-center mb-6">
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<i class="fas fa-exclamation-circle text-red-500 text-3xl mr-4"></i>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold">预期差分析</h3>
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</div>
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<div class="space-y-4 text-gray-300">
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<div class="p-4 bg-gray-900 rounded-lg border-l-4 border-red-500">
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<h4 class="font-semibold mb-2">名义产能≠有效产能</h4>
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<p>实际开机率可达<span class="highlight-red font-bold">100%+</span>，有效供给可能高出名义产能10-15%</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-gray-900 rounded-lg border-l-4 border-yellow-500">
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<h4 class="font-semibold mb-2">减产≠盈利修复</h4>
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<p>单吨亏损1653元，涨价100元仅覆盖6%缺口，成本传导存疑</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-gray-900 rounded-lg border-l-4 border-orange-500">
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<h4 class="font-semibold mb-2">技术突破≠业绩兑现</h4>
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<p>气相氧化、己内酰胺法PA66等技术存在工业化放大风险</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Catalysts -->
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<section class="py-16 px-6 bg-gray-800">
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<div class="container mx-auto max-w-7xl">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-12 text-center">
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<span class="highlight-blue">关键催化剂与路径</span>
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</h2>
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<div class="grid lg:grid-cols-2 gap-8 mb-12">
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<div class="card-hover bg-gray-900 p-8 rounded-2xl shadow-xl">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-6 text-purple-400 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-clock mr-3"></i>
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近期催化剂（3-6个月）
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</h3>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="flex justify-between items-center p-4 bg-gray-800 rounded-lg">
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<span class="text-gray-300">减产协议执行力度</span>
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<span class="badge badge-warning">中概率 | 高影响</span>
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</div>
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<div class="flex justify-between items-center p-4 bg-gray-800 rounded-lg">
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<span class="text-gray-300">事故产能恢复进度</span>
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<span class="badge badge-danger">高概率 | 中影响</span>
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</div>
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<div class="flex justify-between items-center p-4 bg-gray-800 rounded-lg">
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<span class="text-gray-300">旺季需求兑现</span>
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<span class="badge badge-warning">中概率 | 高影响</span>
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</div>
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<div class="flex justify-between items-center p-4 bg-gray-800 rounded-lg">
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<span class="text-gray-300">纯苯价格走势</span>
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<span class="badge badge-danger">高概率 | 极高影响</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="card-hover bg-gray-900 p-8 rounded-2xl shadow-xl">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-6 text-green-400 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-route mr-3"></i>
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长期发展路径
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</h3>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="p-4 bg-gray-800 rounded-lg">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-yellow-400 mb-2">路径一：传统产能周期反转</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">亏损深化→小产能退出→开工率降至75-80%→加工费修复至4000-5000元/吨</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-gray-800 rounded-lg">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-400 mb-2">路径二：技术革命重塑成本</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">气相氧化法产业化→己内酰胺法PA66突破→成本曲线重构</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-gray-800 rounded-lg">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-purple-400 mb-2">路径三：出口市场结构性增长</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">日韩台产能退出→中国成为全球成本洼地→出口量提升至30-40万吨/年</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Company Analysis -->
|
||
<section class="py-16 px-6">
|
||
<div class="container mx-auto max-w-7xl">
|
||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-12 text-center">
|
||
<span class="highlight-blue">核心公司深度对比</span>
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<div class="table-responsive">
|
||
<table class="w-full bg-gray-800 rounded-2xl overflow-hidden shadow-2xl">
|
||
<thead class="gradient-bg">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th class="px-6 py-4 text-left text-sm font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider">公司</th>
|
||
<th class="px-6 py-4 text-left text-sm font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider">产能(万吨)</th>
|
||
<th class="px-6 py-4 text-left text-sm font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider">成本优势</th>
|
||
<th class="px-6 py-4 text-left text-sm font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider">技术特色</th>
|
||
<th class="px-6 py-4 text-left text-sm font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider">盈利现状</th>
|
||
<th class="px-6 py-4 text-left text-sm font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider">投资逻辑</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody class="divide-y divide-gray-700">
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-gray-700 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 font-bold text-white">鲁西化工</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-blue-400 font-semibold">70</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-green-400">★★★★★<br><span class="text-xs text-gray-400">24年9月新项目成本最低</span></td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-300">一体化园区，蒸汽电力自给</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-yellow-400">新项目微利，老旧装置亏损</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-purple-400 font-semibold">纯粹CPL弹性标的，单吨涨1000元→税前利润+7亿</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-gray-700 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 font-bold text-white">华鲁恒升</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-blue-400 font-semibold">30-45</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-green-400">★★★★★<br><span class="text-xs text-gray-400">煤制氢+荆州先进气化炉</span></td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-300">煤化工龙头，多产品协同</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-yellow-400">CPL微利，靠其他产品平衡</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-purple-400 font-semibold">防御性龙头，底部现金流稳健，股息率2.8%</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-gray-700 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 font-bold text-white">恒逸石化</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-blue-400 font-semibold">22.5权益+60在建</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-yellow-400">★★★★☆<br><span class="text-xs text-gray-400">钦州项目合成氨自制+气相氧化</span></td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-300">气相氧化技术（未验证）</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-red-400">24年Q4亏损</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-purple-400 font-semibold">技术期权标的，若气相氧化成功将颠覆行业</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-gray-700 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 font-bold text-white">神马股份</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-blue-400 font-semibold">40</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-yellow-400">★★★☆☆</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-300">平煤神马集团配套</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-red-400">事故前已亏损</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-purple-400 font-semibold">困境反转，需观察安全管理整改</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-gray-700 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 font-bold text-white">中国旭阳集团</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-blue-400 font-semibold">75</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-green-400">★★★★☆<br><span class="text-xs text-gray-400">水合法降本1600-1900元/吨</span></td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-300">水合法工艺成熟，出口占比高</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-green-400">2024年吨净利200-300元</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-purple-400 font-semibold">出口龙头+成本杀手，固体CPL全球竞争力强</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Data -->
|
||
<section class="py-16 px-6 bg-gray-800">
|
||
<div class="container mx-auto max-w-7xl">
|
||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-12 text-center">
|
||
<span class="highlight-blue">核心股票数据</span>
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<div class="table-responsive">
|
||
<table class="w-full bg-gray-900 rounded-2xl overflow-hidden shadow-2xl">
|
||
<thead class="gradient-bg-2">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th class="px-6 py-4 text-left text-sm font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider">股票代码</th>
|
||
<th class="px-6 py-4 text-left text-sm font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider">公司名称</th>
|
||
<th class="px-6 py-4 text-left text-sm font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider">分类</th>
|
||
<th class="px-6 py-4 text-left text-sm font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider">产能/项目</th>
|
||
<th class="px-6 py-4 text-left text-sm font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider">数据来源</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody class="divide-y divide-gray-700">
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-gray-800 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 font-mono text-blue-400">000830.SZ</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 font-bold">鲁西化工</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-green-400">公司产能</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-yellow-400 font-semibold">70万吨/年</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-400">互动平台</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-gray-800 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 font-mono text-blue-400">600426.SH</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 font-bold">华鲁恒升</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-green-400">公司产能</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-yellow-400 font-semibold">30万吨/年</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-400">半年报</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-gray-800 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 font-mono text-blue-400">000703.SZ</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 font-bold">恒逸石化</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-blue-400">公司产能</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-yellow-400">参股40万吨/年（钦州一期试生产）</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-400">互动平台</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-gray-800 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 font-mono text-blue-400">600810.SH</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 font-bold">神马股份</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-orange-400">集团产能</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-yellow-400">神马集团30万吨/年（拟扩至60万吨）</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-400">公告</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-gray-800 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 font-mono text-blue-400">000695.SZ</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 font-bold">滨海能源</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-purple-400">拟收购</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-yellow-400 font-semibold">拟收购沧州旭阳75万吨/年</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-400">会议纪要</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-gray-800 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 font-mono text-blue-400">601117.SH</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 font-bold">中国化学</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-green-400">公司产能</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-yellow-400">持股60%，天辰齐翔53万吨/年</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-400">年报/工商</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-gray-800 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 font-mono text-blue-400">600123.SH</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 font-bold">兰花科创</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-green-400">公司产能</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-yellow-400 font-semibold">14万吨/年</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-400">年报</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-gray-800 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 font-mono text-blue-400">600346.SH</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 font-bold">恒力石化</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-green-400">公司产能</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-yellow-400">己内酰胺-聚酰胺一体化项目</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-400">互动</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-gray-800 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 font-mono text-blue-400">1907.HK</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 font-bold">中国旭阳集团</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-orange-400">集团产能</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-yellow-400 font-semibold">75万吨/年（全球最大单套）</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-400">纪要</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Risks -->
|
||
<section class="py-16 px-6">
|
||
<div class="container mx-auto max-w-7xl">
|
||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-12 text-center">
|
||
<span class="highlight-red">潜在风险与挑战</span>
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-8">
|
||
<div class="card-hover bg-gray-800 p-6 rounded-2xl shadow-xl border-l-4 border-red-500">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-red-400 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle mr-3"></i>
|
||
技术风险
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-2 text-gray-300 text-sm">
|
||
<li>• 气相氧化技术工业化失败风险</li>
|
||
<li>• 己内酰胺法PA66工艺放大风险</li>
|
||
<li>• 新技术稳定运行需1-2年周期</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="card-hover bg-gray-800 p-6 rounded-2xl shadow-xl border-l-4 border-orange-500">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-orange-400 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-chart-line mr-3"></i>
|
||
商业化风险
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-2 text-gray-300 text-sm">
|
||
<li>• 中美贸易摩擦打击纺织品出口</li>
|
||
<li>• 纯苯价格飙涨吞噬涨价成果</li>
|
||
<li>• 下游竞争激烈成本传导失灵</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="card-hover bg-gray-800 p-6 rounded-2xl shadow-xl border-l-4 border-yellow-500">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-yellow-400 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-balance-scale mr-3"></i>
|
||
政策与竞争风险
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-2 text-gray-300 text-sm">
|
||
<li>• 安全环保政策突变增加合规成本</li>
|
||
<li>• "反内卷"减产沦为口号</li>
|
||
<li>• 产能退出低于预期</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Conclusion -->
|
||
<section class="py-16 px-6 gradient-bg">
|
||
<div class="container mx-auto max-w-7xl">
|
||
<div class="card-hover bg-white bg-opacity-10 backdrop-blur-lg rounded-3xl p-12 shadow-2xl">
|
||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-8 text-center text-white">
|
||
综合结论与投资启示
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<div class="grid lg:grid-cols-3 gap-8">
|
||
<div class="bg-white bg-opacity-10 rounded-2xl p-6">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-yellow-300 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-compass mr-3"></i>
|
||
概念阶段
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-200 mb-4">当前处于<span class="bg-yellow-400 text-gray-900 px-2 py-1 rounded font-bold">"周期底部左侧布局期"</span>，尚未进入右侧主升浪</p>
|
||
<ul class="text-gray-300 text-sm space-y-2">
|
||
<li>• 主题炒作成分：反内卷、新技术易引发脉冲</li>
|
||
<li>• 基本面筑底：亏损面超60%，小产能退出</li>
|
||
<li>• 催化剂待验证：减产执行、复产时间、旺季需求</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-white bg-opacity-10 rounded-2xl p-6">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-green-300 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-trophy mr-3"></i>
|
||
投资优先级
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<ol class="text-gray-200 space-y-2">
|
||
<li><span class="bg-green-500 text-white px-2 py-1 rounded text-sm mr-2">1</span><strong>华鲁恒升：</strong>防御性龙头，股息率2.8%</li>
|
||
<li><span class="bg-blue-500 text-white px-2 py-1 rounded text-sm mr-2">2</span><strong>鲁西化工：</strong>进攻性弹性，70万吨产能</li>
|
||
<li><span class="bg-purple-500 text-white px-2 py-1 rounded text-sm mr-2">3</span><strong>恒逸石化：</strong>技术期权，高风险高回报</li>
|
||
<li><span class="bg-gray-500 text-white px-2 py-1 rounded text-sm mr-2">4</span><strong>神马股份：</strong>主题投机，不宜恋战</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-white bg-opacity-10 rounded-2xl p-6">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-blue-300 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-chart-bar mr-3"></i>
|
||
关键指标
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<div class="space-y-3 text-gray-200 text-sm">
|
||
<div class="flex justify-between">
|
||
<span>行业开工率</span>
|
||
<span class="text-red-300 font-bold"><80%</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="flex justify-between">
|
||
<span>库存天数</span>
|
||
<span class="text-green-300 font-bold"><15天</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="flex justify-between">
|
||
<span>CPL-纯苯价差</span>
|
||
<span class="text-blue-300 font-bold">>3500元/吨</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="flex justify-between">
|
||
<span>龙头毛利率</span>
|
||
<span class="text-yellow-300 font-bold">转正</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="mt-12 text-center">
|
||
<p class="text-xl text-white font-semibold bg-red-500 bg-opacity-30 inline-block px-8 py-4 rounded-full">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-lightbulb mr-3"></i>
|
||
操作建议：当前不宜追高"反内卷"主题，而应逢调整布局华鲁恒升或鲁西化工。若3个月内开工率降至75%且库存去化超20%，则右侧买点出现
|
||
</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Footer -->
|
||
<footer class="py-8 px-6 bg-gray-900 border-t border-gray-700">
|
||
<div class="container mx-auto max-w-7xl text-center">
|
||
<p class="text-gray-400 text-sm">
|
||
本报告基于公开信息整理，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。
|
||
</p>
|
||
<div class="mt-4 flex justify-center space-x-6 text-gray-500">
|
||
<span>更新时间：2025年11月</span>
|
||
<span>数据来源：百川盈孚、卓创资讯、公司公告、券商研报</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
// Add smooth scroll for anchor links
|
||
document.querySelectorAll('a[href^="#"]').forEach(anchor => {
|
||
anchor.addEventListener('click', function (e) {
|
||
e.preventDefault();
|
||
document.querySelector(this.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({
|
||
behavior: 'smooth'
|
||
});
|
||
});
|
||
});
|
||
|
||
// Add staggered animation for timeline items
|
||
document.querySelectorAll('.timeline-item').forEach((item, index) => {
|
||
item.style.animationDelay = `${index * 0.2}s`;
|
||
});
|
||
|
||
// Add intersection observer for card animations
|
||
const observerOptions = {
|
||
threshold: 0.1,
|
||
rootMargin: '0px 0px -50px 0px'
|
||
};
|
||
|
||
const observer = new IntersectionObserver((entries) => {
|
||
entries.forEach(entry => {
|
||
if (entry.isIntersecting) {
|
||
entry.target.style.opacity = '1';
|
||
entry.target.style.transform = 'translateY(0)';
|
||
}
|
||
});
|
||
}, observerOptions);
|
||
|
||
document.querySelectorAll('.card-hover').forEach(card => {
|
||
card.style.opacity = '0';
|
||
card.style.transform = 'translateY(20px)';
|
||
card.style.transition = 'opacity 0.6s ease, transform 0.6s ease';
|
||
observer.observe(card);
|
||
});
|
||
</script>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html>
|