462 lines
31 KiB
HTML
462 lines
31 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>AI In-depth Analysis: Southwest Hydropower Concept</title>
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<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.10.2/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<script defer src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js"></script>
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<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com">
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<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.gstatic.com" crossorigin>
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<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Manrope:wght@300;400;500;700&family=Space+Grotesk:wght@400;500;700&display=swap" rel="stylesheet">
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<style>
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body {
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font-family: 'Manrope', sans-serif;
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background-color: #05060B;
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color: #E0E0E0;
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overflow-x: hidden;
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}
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.font-title {
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font-family: 'Space Grotesk', sans-serif;
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}
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.glass-card {
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background: rgba(20, 20, 35, 0.45);
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backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
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border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
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.glass-card:hover {
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box-shadow: 0 0 25px rgba(0, 255, 255, 0.1);
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}
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.bento-grid {
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display: grid;
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grid-template-columns: repeat(6, 1fr);
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gap: 1.5rem;
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}
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.bento-item {
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border-radius: 1.5rem; /* 极致圆角 */
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padding: 1.5rem;
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.col-span-1 { grid-column: span 1 / span 1; }
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.col-span-3 { grid-column: span 3 / span 3; }
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@media (max-width: 1024px) {
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.bento-grid { grid-template-columns: repeat(1, 1fr); }
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.glow-effect::before {
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, rgba(0, 255, 255, 0.3), rgba(170, 100, 255, 0.3));
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-webkit-mask:
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linear-gradient(#fff 0 0) content-box,
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linear-gradient(#fff 0 0);
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-webkit-mask-composite: xor;
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mask-composite: exclude;
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z-index: -1;
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opacity: 0.5;
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}
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.background-glow {
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position: fixed;
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width: 800px;
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height: 800px;
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border-radius: 50%;
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background: radial-gradient(circle, rgba(29, 78, 216, 0.15) 0%, rgba(29, 78, 216, 0) 70%);
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z-index: -1;
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pointer-events: none;
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.tab-lift {
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transition: all 0.3s ease;
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}
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.tab-lift:hover {
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transform: translateY(-2px);
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background-color: rgba(255,255,255,0.1);
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}
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.table th, .table td {
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background-color: transparent !important;
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border-bottom-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
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}
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.table-container {
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border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
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border-radius: 1.5rem;
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padding: 1rem;
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overflow: hidden;
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background: rgba(20, 20, 35, 0.45);
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-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
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backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="min-h-screen">
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<div class="background-glow glow-1"></div>
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<div class="background-glow glow-2"></div>
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<div class="container mx-auto px-4 py-8 md:py-16">
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<header class="text-center mb-16">
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<h1 class="font-title text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold tracking-tighter mb-4">
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<span class="bg-clip-text text-transparent bg-gradient-to-r from-cyan-400 to-purple-500">西南水电</span>
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<span class="text-gray-400"> / Southwest Hydropower</span>
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</h1>
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<p class="text-lg text-gray-400 max-w-3xl mx-auto">
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北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 呈现
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</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-500 mt-2">本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。</p>
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</header>
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<main class="space-y-12">
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<!-- Insight Core View -->
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<section class="bento-grid">
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<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-6 lg:col-span-4 row-span-2 flex flex-col justify-between">
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<div>
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<h2 class="font-title text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-cyan-300">概念核心观点 / Core Insight</h2>
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<p class="text-base text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">
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“西南水电”概念本质上是一个由国家顶层能源战略驱动、以雅鲁藏布江下游超级工程为核心载体的**长周期、大体量**基建主题。当前，该概念正从**政策驱动的预期阶段**，逐步向**项目招标和前期工程启动的验证阶段**过渡，其核心投资逻辑在于超级工程对特定区域和特定环节带来的**高确定性、高弹性**的需求增量。
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</p>
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</div>
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<div class="mt-8">
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<div id="investmentSankey" style="width: 100%; height: 280px;"></div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-6 lg:col-span-2">
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<h3 class="font-title text-xl font-bold mb-3 text-purple-300">核心驱动力 / Key Drivers</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-sm text-gray-300">
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-cyan-400 mr-2 mt-1">●</span><div><strong>国家能源安全与绿色转型:</strong> 2030年非化石能源消费比重达25%的国家战略目标。</div></li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-cyan-400 mr-2 mt-1">●</span><div><strong>逆周期宏观调控:</strong> 超万亿级投资是拉动内需、稳定经济增长的有效工具。</div></li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-6 lg:col-span-2">
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<h3 class="font-title text-xl font-bold mb-3 text-amber-300">潜在风险与预期差 / Risks & Gaps</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-sm text-gray-300">
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-amber-400 mr-2 mt-1">●</span><div><strong>时间预期差:</strong> 市场预期“发力在即”，但大规模开工或在2025年后。</div></li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-amber-400 mr-2 mt-1">●</span><div><strong>需求规模预期差:</strong> 民爆需求量估算存在数量级差异，市场可能高估弹性。</div></li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-amber-400 mr-2 mt-1">●</span><div><strong>项目延期风险:</strong> 地缘政治、环保、移民等因素可能影响项目进度。</div></li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Event Timeline and Project Details -->
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<section class="bento-item glass-card col-span-6" x-data="{ tab: 'timeline' }">
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<div role="tablist" class="tabs tabs-boxed bg-black/20 mb-6">
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<a role="tab" class="tab tab-lift" :class="{ 'tab-active bg-cyan-600/50': tab === 'timeline' }" @click="tab = 'timeline'">事件脉络 & 催化剂</a>
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<a role="tab" class="tab tab-lift" :class="{ 'tab-active bg-cyan-600/50': tab === 'project' }" @click="tab = 'project'">核心项目：雅鲁藏布江下游</a>
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<a role="tab" class="tab tab-lift" :class="{ 'tab-active bg-cyan-600/50': tab === 'path' }" @click="tab = 'path'">未来发展路径</a>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'timeline'" class="space-y-4">
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<h3 class="font-title text-xl font-bold mb-3 text-cyan-300">事件脉络 / Event Timeline</h3>
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<ul class="timeline timeline-snap-icon max-md:timeline-compact timeline-vertical">
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<li>
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<div class="timeline-middle"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-cyan-400"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.001-5.498z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg></div>
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<div class="timeline-end md:timeline-start mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic">~2024.08</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black">战略定调</div>
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8月11日，中央文件首次明确“加快西南水电等清洁能源基地建设”，并点名“推动雅鲁藏布江下游水电规划建设”。
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</div>
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<hr class="bg-cyan-400/50"/>
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</li>
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<li>
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<hr class="bg-cyan-400/50"/>
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<div class="timeline-middle"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-cyan-400"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.001-5.498z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg></div>
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<div class="timeline-start md:timeline-end mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic">2024.08中旬</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black">市场发酵</div>
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券商路演密集召开，聚焦雅下水电站万亿级投资规模，产业链挖掘启动，相关概念股大幅上涨近50%。
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</div>
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<hr class="bg-cyan-400/50"/>
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</li>
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<li>
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<hr class="bg-cyan-400/50"/>
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<div class="timeline-middle"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-cyan-400"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.001-5.498z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg></div>
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<div class="timeline-end md:timeline-start mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic">2024.08下旬-11月</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black">预期深化</div>
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路演澄清“冬季可施工”等预期差，华能、电建等环评招标加速，被视为项目进入实质性推进的关键催化剂。
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</div>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'project'" class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-8 items-center">
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-title text-2xl font-bold text-purple-300">雅鲁藏布江下游水电站 (墨脱)</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-400 mt-2 mb-6">世界水能富集之最，国家能源安全的战略支点。</p>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="flex items-center">
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<div class="stat-figure text-secondary"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" class="inline-block w-8 h-8 stroke-current text-purple-400"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M13 10V3L4 14h7v7l9-11h-7z"></path></svg></div>
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<div class="ml-4">
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<div class="stat-title text-gray-400">装机容量</div>
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<div class="stat-value text-3xl text-white">60 GW</div>
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<div class="stat-desc text-gray-500">≈ 2.7倍 三峡工程</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-center">
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<div class="stat-figure text-secondary"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" class="inline-block w-8 h-8 stroke-current text-purple-400"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 8c-1.657 0-3 .895-3 2s1.343 2 3 2 3 .895 3 2-1.343 2-3 2m0-8c1.11 0 2.08.402 2.599 1M12 8V7m0 1v.01"></path></svg></div>
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<div class="ml-4">
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<div class="stat-title text-gray-400">预计总投资</div>
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<div class="stat-value text-3xl text-white">1.7 - 2 万亿</div>
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<div class="stat-desc text-gray-500">史诗级基建投资</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-center">
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<div class="stat-figure text-secondary"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" class="inline-block w-8 h-8 stroke-current text-purple-400"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M17.657 18.657A8 8 0 016.343 7.343S7 9 9 10c0-2 .5-5 2.986-7C14 5 16.09 5.777 17.657 7.343A8 8 0 0117.657 18.657z"></path><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M9.879 16.121A3 3 0 1014.12 11.88l-4.242 4.242z"></path></svg></div>
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<div class="ml-4">
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<div class="stat-title text-gray-400">水泥需求</div>
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<div class="stat-value text-3xl text-white">~5400万吨</div>
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<div class="stat-desc text-gray-500">年均占西藏产量30%</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<div id="projectScaleChart" style="width: 100%; height: 400px;"></div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'path'">
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<h3 class="font-title text-xl font-bold mb-3 text-cyan-300">长期发展路径 / Long-term Development Path</h3>
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<div id="developmentTimeline" style="width: 100%; height: 400px;"></div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Industry Chain and Key Players -->
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<section class="bento-grid">
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<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-6 lg:col-span-4">
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<h3 class="font-title text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-cyan-300">产业链深度剖析 / Industry Chain Analysis</h3>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-4 text-sm">
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<div class="bg-black/20 p-4 rounded-xl">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-purple-300 mb-2">上游：原材料与设备</h4>
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<ul class="space-y-1 text-gray-300 list-disc list-inside">
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<li><strong>基础建材:</strong> 水泥、民爆、砂石骨料</li>
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<li><strong>核心装备:</strong> TBM掘进机、缆索起重机</li>
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<li><strong>特种材料:</strong> 减水剂、岩土工程服务</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-black/20 p-4 rounded-xl">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-purple-300 mb-2">中游：工程设计与建设</h4>
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<ul class="space-y-1 text-gray-300 list-disc list-inside">
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<li><strong>EPC总包:</strong> 中国电建、中国能建 (双寡头)</li>
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<li><strong>专业设计施工:</strong> 勘察、设计、监理</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-black/20 p-4 rounded-xl">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-purple-300 mb-2">下游：发电与运营</h4>
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<ul class="space-y-1 text-gray-300 list-disc list-inside">
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<li><strong>水电运营商:</strong> 长江电力、华能水电等</li>
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<li><strong>一体化开发:</strong> 水风光储一体化基地建设</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-6 lg:col-span-2">
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<h3 class="font-title text-xl font-bold mb-3 text-cyan-300">最具投资价值环节</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-sm">
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<li><strong class="text-purple-300">高确定性:</strong> 特种工程装备(如TBM)，技术壁垒高，订单能见度强。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-purple-300">高弹性:</strong> 西藏本地建材(水泥/民爆)，区位优势独特，需求爆发时业绩弹性最大。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</section>
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<section class="bento-item glass-card col-span-6">
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<h2 class="font-title text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-cyan-300">核心玩家定位与对比 / Key Player Positioning</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div class="border border-white/10 p-4 rounded-2xl bg-black/20">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-cyan-400">领导者 (确定性高)</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-2">确定性高，弹性低</p>
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<p class="text-gray-300"><strong>中国电建、中国能建</strong>：EPC双寡头，分食最大份额订单。逻辑最硬，但对总营收弹性有限（约5%）。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="border border-white/10 p-4 rounded-2xl bg-black/20">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-purple-400">纯粹受益者 (弹性高)</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-2">弹性高，风险高</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-300"><strong>高争民爆、西藏天路</strong>：西藏本地龙头，区位优势无人能及。逻辑最纯粹，但需警惕产能瓶颈和外部竞争。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="border border-white/10 p-4 rounded-2xl bg-black/20">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-amber-400">细分龙头 (技术壁垒)</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-2">技术壁垒高</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-300"><strong>铁建重工、法兰泰克</strong>：TBM、缆索起重机等领域具备技术和项目经验优势，受益逻辑扎实，但需验证产能。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="mt-6 p-4 rounded-2xl border border-red-500/30 bg-red-900/20">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-red-300 flex items-center"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 mr-2" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M8.257 3.099c.765-1.36 2.722-1.36 3.486 0l5.58 9.92c.75 1.334-.21 3.03-1.742 3.03H4.42c-1.532 0-2.492-1.696-1.742-3.03l5.58-9.92zM10 13a1 1 0 110-2 1 1 0 010 2zm-1.75-5.25a.75.75 0 00-1.5 0v3.5a.75.75 0 001.5 0v-3.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>证伪案例：苏博特</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-red-200/80 mt-2">研报列为核心标的，但路演数据显示其林芝工厂产能仅3万吨，规模太小，无法匹配千万吨级水泥的庞大需求。这是典型的“故事”与“现实”的脱节。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Associated Stocks Table -->
|
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<section>
|
||
<h2 class="font-title text-3xl font-bold mb-8 text-center text-cyan-300">关联个股列表 / Associated Stocks</h2>
|
||
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|
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|
||
<table class="table table-zebra w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr class="text-base text-gray-300">
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑</th>
|
||
<th>标签</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
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|
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<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>西藏天路</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600326" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">600326</a></td><td>西藏区域水泥龙头，市占率近40%，直接受益于本地大规模基建。</td><td><span class="badge badge-error">涨停个股</span></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>保利联合</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002037" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">002037</a></td><td>与高争民爆合资在西部建设民爆生产线，具备产能协同优势。</td><td><span class="badge badge-error">涨停个股</span></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>高争民爆</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002827" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">002827</a></td><td>西藏唯一民爆上市公司，营销网络覆盖全区，区位优势最纯粹。</td><td><span class="badge badge-error">涨停个股</span></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>大宏立</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300865" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">300865</a></td><td>长期深耕西南市场，为大型水电项目提供砂石骨料破碎筛分设备。</td><td><span class="badge badge-error">涨停个股</span></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>筑博设计</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300564" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">300564</a></td><td>注册地为西藏拉萨，为西藏本地第一大建筑设计上市公司。</td><td><span class="badge badge-error">涨停个股</span></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>中岩大地</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=003001" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">003001</a></td><td>超深和水平旋喷技术领先，应用于大坝地基和隧洞围岩等岩土工程。</td><td><span class="badge badge-error">涨停个股</span></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>苏博特</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603916" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">603916</a></td><td>减水剂龙头，与大型工程单位有战略合作，但西藏产能待验证。</td><td><span class="badge badge-error">涨停个股</span></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>法兰泰克</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603966" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">603966</a></td><td>子公司为白鹤滩水电站供应所有缆索起重机，技术经验优势显著。</td><td><span class="badge badge-error">涨停个股</span></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>五新隧装</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=835174" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">835174</a></td><td>主营隧道施工智能装备，针对水利水电市场开发有针对性产品。</td><td><span class="badge badge-error">涨停个股</span></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>易普力</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002096" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">002096</a></td><td>民爆一体化龙头，央企背景，已在西藏布局产能，是高争民爆的有力竞争者。</td><td><span class="badge badge-info">相关个股</span></td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<footer class="text-center mt-16">
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-500">
|
||
本报告由北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent“价小前投研”基于公开数据合成，不构成任何投资建议。
|
||
</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">© 2024 ValueFrontier. All Rights Reserved.</p>
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