568 lines
37 KiB
HTML
568 lines
37 KiB
HTML
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<title>生猪概念 - 深度行业研究报告</title>
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<body class="text-gray-300 min-h-screen">
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
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<header class="text-center mb-16">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-extrabold tracking-tighter section-title">生猪概念 · 深度行业研究报告</h1>
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<p class="mt-4 text-sm text-gray-500 max-w-2xl mx-auto">
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由 北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent:“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现。本报告为AI合成数据,不构成任何投资建议,投资需谨慎。
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</p>
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</header>
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<!-- Section 1: Core Insight -->
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<section class="mb-16">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-8 section-title">核心Insight:周期反转与“新范式”共振</h2>
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<div class="space-y-8">
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<!-- 0. 概念事件 -->
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<div class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-indigo-300">0. 概念事件时间轴</h3>
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<div class="relative pl-8">
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<div class="insight-timeline">
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<div class="relative insight-timeline-item mb-6">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-fuchsia-300">周期底部与产能去化期 (2023年末 - 2024年Q1)</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-1">行业长期亏损,现金流压力巨大。北方猪瘟加剧产能淘汰,能繁母猪存栏持续下降。猪价底部徘徊,市场开始交易“产能去化”逻辑,出现“猪价跌、股价涨”的“劈叉效应”。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="relative insight-timeline-item mb-6">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-fuchsia-300">价格反转与盈利拐点期 (2024年Q2)</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-1">产能去化效果开始在供给端兑现,猪价在消费淡季逆势走强,6月大幅上涨至18.15元/公斤。成本控制优秀企业率先盈利,行业迎来确定性拐点。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="relative insight-timeline-item mb-6">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-fuchsia-300">景气上行与政策调控期 (2024年H2 - 至今)</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-1">供给持续偏紧,8月猪价冲高。行业连续盈利,但产能过剩隐忧仍在。农业农村部提出“反内卷”新思路,计划调减能繁母猪存栏100万头,政策成为市场新核心变量。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="relative insight-timeline-item">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-fuchsia-300">新工具与未来展望期 (2024年末 - 2025年)</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-1">大商所推出生猪期权,丰富产业风险管理工具。市场对2025年后产能恢复速度与猪价走势产生分歧,未来行业格局充满变数。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 1. 核心观点摘要 -->
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<div class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-indigo-300">1. 核心观点摘要</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300">生猪概念已走出一个由<strong class="text-teal-300">供给端深度去化</strong>驱动的经典上行周期,目前正处于<strong class="text-teal-300">景气高点与政策强力调控并存</strong>的关键阶段。其核心驱动力正从单纯的“周期反转”向“政策引导下的高质量、低波动发展(新范式)”演变,未来潜力在于龙头企业在行业整合与盈利稳定性提升下的<strong class="text-violet-300">价值重估</strong>,而非传统周期的高弹性博弈。</p>
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</div>
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<!-- 2. 核心逻辑与市场认知 -->
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<div class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-indigo-300">2. 概念的核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h3>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-fuchsia-300">核心驱动力:</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 mt-2 text-sm text-gray-400 space-y-1">
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<li><strong>供给侧的根本性收缩:</strong>长达16个月的能繁母猪产能下降,叠加疫病“定点爆破”,构成本轮周期的基石。</li>
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<li><strong>政策驱动的“反内卷”新变量:</strong>政策从被动的“逆周期调节”转向主动的“产业结构优化”,试图熨平周期波动,核心是抗通缩和反内卷。</li>
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<li><strong>成本下降的利润放大效应:</strong>2024年上半年饲料原料价格大幅下跌,显著降低养殖成本,在猪价上行时极大地放大了企业盈利空间。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-fuchsia-300">市场热度与情绪:</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-1">市场热度极高,情绪经历了从“怀疑”到“确认”再到“乐观并存分歧”的转变。当前市场对“反内卷”政策带来的周期延长充满期待,同时也对2025年产能恢复可能带来的价格下行存在担忧。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-fuchsia-300">预期差分析:</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 mt-2 text-sm text-gray-400 space-y-1">
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<li><strong>“劈叉效应”预期差 (已兑现):</strong>市场曾认为猪价反弹会抑制去产能,但事实是资金压力驱动高负债主体持续出清。</li>
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<li><strong>“反内卷”政策力度预期差 (正在发酵):</strong>若后续信贷、环保等强力措施落地,将对供给端形成超预期硬性约束,延长景气周期。</li>
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<li><strong>效率提升对冲产能去化的预期差 (潜在风险):</strong>市场可能过度关注能繁母猪数量,而忽略了PSY(母猪年产仔数)大幅提升对实际供给的巨大影响,这是未来猪价不及预期的最大潜在风险。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 3. 催化剂与发展路径 -->
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<div class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-indigo-300">3. 关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h3>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-fuchsia-300">近期催化剂 (未来3-6个月)</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 mt-2 text-sm text-gray-400 space-y-1">
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<li>“反内卷”政策细则落地与执行力度。</li>
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<li>冬季消费旺季与腌腊需求强度。</li>
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<li>上市公司产能调减计划兑现情况。</li>
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<li>月度能繁母猪存栏数据能否稳定在政策目标区间。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-fuchsia-300">长期发展路径</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 mt-2 text-sm text-gray-400 space-y-1">
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<li><strong>“新范式”确立:</strong>行业转向利润驱动的高质量增长,高效集团收割低效集团。</li>
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<li><strong>估值体系重塑:</strong>龙头企业从“周期股”向“周期+价值”股转变,估值中枢有望抬升。</li>
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<li><strong>产业集中度提升:</strong>政策与市场竞争加速中小养殖户退出。</li>
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<li><strong>风险管理成熟化:</strong>期货、期权等金融工具普及,增强头部企业经营稳定性。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 6. 综合结论与投资启示 -->
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<div class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-indigo-300">6. 综合结论与投资启示</h3>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-fuchsia-300">最终看法:</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-1">生猪概念已确认进入由基本面驱动的景气上行周期。在“反内卷”政策干预下,行业正处于向“新范式”过渡的观察期。本轮周期可能呈现<strong class="text-teal-300">盈利平台期更长、价格波动性收窄</strong>的特点,投资逻辑正从博弈价格弹性的“纯周期炒作”向挖掘龙头企业长期价值的“周期+价值投资”转变。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="mt-4">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-fuchsia-300">最具投资价值的方向:</h4>
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<ul class="list-decimal pl-5 mt-2 text-sm text-gray-400 space-y-1">
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<li><strong>Alpha收益来源 (绝对成本优势龙头 - 牧原股份、温氏股份):</strong>“新范式”下的最大受益者,有望开启价值重估,适合长期价值投资者。</li>
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<li><strong>Beta收益来源 (高成长性二线龙头 - 巨星农牧、神农集团):</strong>景气上行期凭借“量价齐升”的双重优势,提供更高业绩弹性,适合周期弹性投资者。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="mt-4">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-fuchsia-300">需重点跟踪的关键指标:</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 mt-2 text-sm text-gray-400 space-y-1">
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<li><strong>能繁母猪存栏量:</strong>核心领先指标,观察是否稳定在政策目标区间。</li>
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<li><strong>养殖成本月度变化:</strong>验证龙头企业竞争优势。</li>
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<li><strong>生猪出栏均重:</strong>高频情绪指标,预示短期价格拐点。</li>
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<li><strong>“反内卷”政策执行力度:</strong>决定本轮周期能否“脱胎换骨”的关键变量。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Section 2: Multi-Source Data Dashboard -->
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<section class="mb-16">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-8 section-title">多源数据透视</h2>
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<!-- Price Chart -->
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-span-12 lg:bento-item-span-8 glass-card p-4 md:p-6">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-indigo-300 mb-4">2024年生猪价格走势与行业盈利</h3>
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<div id="priceChart" class="w-full h-80"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- News Highlights -->
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-span-12 lg:bento-item-span-4 glass-card p-4 md:p-6" x-data="{ tab: 'price' }">
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<div class="tabs tabs-boxed bg-slate-800/50 mb-4">
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<a class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'price'}" @click="tab = 'price'">价格</a>
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<a class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'capacity'}" @click="tab = 'capacity'">产能</a>
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<a class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'policy'}" @click="tab = 'policy'">政策</a>
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</div>
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<div class="text-sm space-y-2 text-gray-400 max-h-64 overflow-y-auto">
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<div x-show="tab === 'price'">
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<p><strong>上半年扭亏为盈:</strong>均价15.63元/kg, 同比+3.4%。</p>
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<p><strong>6月大涨:</strong>达18.15元/kg, 同比+26.1%。</p>
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<p><strong>8月高位:</strong>冲至21.15元/kg。</p>
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<p><strong>10-11月回落:</strong>但10月头均盈利仍达412元。</p>
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<p><strong>年末展望:</strong>旺季消费拉动,价格有望止跌回升。</p>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'capacity'">
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<p><strong>能繁母猪:</strong>2025年6月末存栏4043万头,高于3900万头正常保有量目标。</p>
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<p><strong>出栏情况:</strong>2024年12月行业大盘出栏1813.6万头, 环比+22.2%。</p>
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<p><strong>面临问题:</strong>产能阶段性偏高,母猪去化幅度不够。</p>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'policy'">
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<p><strong>核心目标:</strong>持续抓好产能调控,稳住猪价。</p>
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<p><strong>调控措施:</strong>合理淘汰能繁母猪,控制出栏体重,严控新增产能。</p>
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<p><strong>“反内卷”新政:</strong>计划将全国能繁母猪存栏调减100万头至约3950万头。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Roadshow Key Takeaways -->
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-span-12 lg:bento-item-span-6 glass-card p-4 md:p-6">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-indigo-300 mb-4">路演核心纪要</h3>
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<div class="space-y-2 max-h-96 overflow-y-auto pr-2">
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-slate-800/50">
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<input type="radio" name="roadshow-accordion" checked="checked" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-md font-medium text-fuchsia-300">
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2024-02-27: "劈叉效应"与产能去化
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</div>
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<div class="collapse-content text-sm text-gray-400">
|
||
<p>核心观点:猪价上涨并不会带动产能反弹,反而可能加剧产能去化。根本驱动是资金压力和行业信心。1月猪价反弹,但能繁母猪存栏环比加速去化,验证了该逻辑。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-slate-800/50">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="roadshow-accordion" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-md font-medium text-fuchsia-300">
|
||
2024-05-22: 行业拐点显现
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content text-sm text-gray-400">
|
||
<p>4月上市猪企出栏量同环比均下滑,产能去化向肥猪供应端稳步兑现。淡季价格逆势走强,成本优秀企业已扭亏为盈。预计二三季度猪价缓步上行。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-slate-800/50">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="roadshow-accordion" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-md font-medium text-fuchsia-300">
|
||
2024-06-30: 周期持续性与业绩前瞻
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content text-sm text-gray-400">
|
||
<p>5月中旬猪价上涨由供需缺口推动,三四季度缺口将扩大。行业资产负债率高、扩产意愿弱,本轮周期景气度或持续至2025年。牧原、温氏等龙头Q2利润大幅修复。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-slate-800/50">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="roadshow-accordion" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-md font-medium text-fuchsia-300">
|
||
2025-03-11: 效率提升的变量 (东北地区)
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content text-sm text-gray-400">
|
||
<p>母猪存栏量虽大幅下降,但单头母猪年均产仔数(PSY)从16-18头提升至22-24头,产能效率提升超20%。这可能对冲部分存栏下降带来的供给收缩。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Research Reports -->
|
||
<div class="bento-item bento-item-span-12 lg:bento-item-span-6 glass-card p-4 md:p-6">
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-indigo-300 mb-4">研报观点精粹</h3>
|
||
<div class="space-y-2 max-h-96 overflow-y-auto pr-2">
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-slate-800/50">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="report-accordion" checked="checked" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-md font-medium text-fuchsia-300">
|
||
2024-05-19: 猪价有望正式步入景气上行周期
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content text-sm text-gray-400">
|
||
<p>4月育肥猪饲料销量同比下滑19.8%,预示供应压力减轻。新生仔猪数拐点预示4月为生猪出栏量拐点。二次育肥入场刺激猪价走强。推荐成本低于行业的牧原、业务均衡的温氏等。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-slate-800/50">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="report-accordion" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-md font-medium text-fuchsia-300">
|
||
2024-06-11: 供需偏好,现货看涨情绪浓厚
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content text-sm text-gray-400">
|
||
<p>规模场预计出栏减少,养殖端利润持续拉升(自繁自养利润484.6元/头)。农业农村部调整能繁母猪正常保有量目标至3900万头。市场情绪乐观,可谨慎偏多。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-slate-800/50">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="report-accordion" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-md font-medium text-fuchsia-300">
|
||
2024-10-31: 天康生物Q3成本显著下降
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content text-sm text-gray-400">
|
||
<p>天康生物Q3生猪业务头均利润达400-420元。得益于生产效率提升,9月完全成本已降至13.91元/kg,进入行业领先梯队。公司有望实现量、质双增。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Section 3: Stock Analysis -->
|
||
<section>
|
||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-8 section-title">相关上市公司图谱</h2>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Rise Analysis -->
|
||
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-8 mb-12">
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-6">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center mb-2">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-lg text-white mr-2">邦基科技 (603151)</span>
|
||
<span class="badge badge-success badge-outline font-bold">+9.99% (2025-06-17)</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400"><strong class="text-teal-300">驱动逻辑:</strong>因重大资产重组预案,拟收购生猪养殖资产,向下游延伸打造“饲料+养殖”一体化产业链,引发市场积极反应涨停。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-6">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center mb-2">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-lg text-white mr-2">罗牛山 (000735)</span>
|
||
<span class="badge badge-success badge-outline font-bold">+10.0% (2025-07-24)</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400"><strong class="text-teal-300">驱动逻辑:</strong>“海南自贸港封关+生猪反内卷新政”双重催化。作为海南生猪龙头,直接受益于政策补贴与扩张资格,资金抢筹。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Table -->
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-4 md:p-8">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-6 text-indigo-300">A股生猪出栏量排名 (2024年数据)</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th class="text-sm">排名</th>
|
||
<th class="text-sm">股票名称</th>
|
||
<th class="text-sm">股票代码</th>
|
||
<th class="text-sm">2024年出栏量 (万头)</th>
|
||
<th class="text-sm">地域</th>
|
||
<th class="text-sm">核心原因</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>1</td><td>牧原股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002714" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">002714</a></td><td>7160</td><td>-</td><td>2024年生猪出栏总量A股第一</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>2</td><td>温氏股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300498" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">300498</a></td><td>3018</td><td>广东</td><td>2024年生猪出栏总量A股第二</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>3</td><td>新希望</td><td>-</td><td>1653</td><td>四川</td><td>2024年生猪出栏总量A股第三</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>4</td><td>大北农</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002385" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">002385</a></td><td>640</td><td>北京</td><td>2024年生猪出栏总量A股第四</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>5</td><td>海大集团</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002311" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">002311</a></td><td>600</td><td>广东</td><td>2024年生猪出栏总量A股第五</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>6</td><td>天邦食品</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002124" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">002124</a></td><td>599</td><td>浙江</td><td>2024年生猪出栏总量A股第六</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>7</td><td>唐人神</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002567" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">002567</a></td><td>434</td><td>湖南</td><td>2024年生猪出栏总量A股第七</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>8</td><td>新五丰</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600975" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">600975</a></td><td>425</td><td>湖南</td><td>2024年生猪出栏总量A股第八</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>9</td><td>正邦科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002157" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">002157</a></td><td>415</td><td>-</td><td>2024年生猪出栏总量A股第九</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>10</td><td>天康生物</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002100" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">002100</a></td><td>303</td><td>新疆</td><td>2024年生猪出栏总量A股第十</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>11</td><td>巨星农牧</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603477" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">603477</a></td><td>276</td><td>四川</td><td>2024年生猪出栏总量A股第十一</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>12</td><td>神农集团</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=605296" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">605296</a></td><td>227</td><td>云南</td><td>2024年生猪出栏总量A股第十二</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>13</td><td>京基智农</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000048" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">000048</a></td><td>215</td><td>广东</td><td>2024年生猪出栏总量A股第十三</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>14</td><td>傲农生物</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603363" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">603363</a></td><td>210</td><td>福建</td><td>2024年生猪出栏总量A股第十四</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>15</td><td>禾丰股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603609" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">603609</a></td><td>140</td><td>辽宁</td><td>2024年生猪出栏总量A股第十五</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>16</td><td>立华股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300761" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">300761</a></td><td>130</td><td>江苏</td><td>2024年生猪出栏总量A股第十六</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>17</td><td>金新农</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002548" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">002548</a></td><td>120</td><td>广东</td><td>2024年生猪出栏总量A股第十七</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>18</td><td>东瑞股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=001201" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">001201</a></td><td>87</td><td>广东</td><td>2024年生猪出栏总量A股第十八</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>19</td><td>罗牛山</td><td>-</td><td>69</td><td>海南</td><td>2024年生猪出栏总量A股第十九</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>20</td><td>天域生物</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603717" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">603717</a></td><td>31</td><td>-</td><td>2024年生猪出栏总量A股第二十</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>21</td><td>正虹科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000702" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">000702</a></td><td>10.6</td><td>湖南</td><td>2024年生猪出栏总量A股第二十一</td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
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|
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|
||
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|
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|
||
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