425 lines
26 KiB
HTML
425 lines
26 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>三峡水运新通道 - 深度投研报告</title>
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.11.1/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
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<script defer src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js"></script>
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
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<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com">
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<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.gstatic.com" crossorigin>
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<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:wght@300;400;500;600;700&family=Space+Grotesk:wght@400;500;700&display=swap" rel="stylesheet">
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<style>
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body {
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font-family: 'Inter', sans-serif;
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background-color: #0a0a0f;
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color: #e5e7eb;
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overflow-x: hidden;
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}
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.font-space {
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font-family: 'Space Grotesk', sans-serif;
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}
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.glass-card {
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background: rgba(20, 20, 35, 0.4);
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backdrop-filter: blur(24px) saturate(150%);
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-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(24px) saturate(150%);
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border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
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border-radius: 2rem;
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box-shadow: 0 8px 32px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.37);
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transition: all 0.3s ease;
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}
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.glass-card:hover {
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transform: translateY(-5px);
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box-shadow: 0 12px 40px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5);
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border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.2);
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}
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.bento-grid {
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display: grid;
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gap: 1.5rem;
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grid-template-columns: repeat(12, 1fr);
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grid-auto-rows: minmax(100px, auto);
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}
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.grid-item-header { grid-column: span 12; }
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.grid-item-vitals { grid-column: span 12; md:grid-column: span 4; }
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.grid-item-strategy { grid-column: span 12; md:grid-column: span 8; }
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.grid-item-logic { grid-column: span 12; md:grid-column: span 7; }
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.grid-item-timeline { grid-column: span 12; md:grid-column: span 5; }
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.grid-item-datahub { grid-column: span 12; }
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.grid-item-impact { grid-column: span 12; md:grid-column: span 6; }
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.grid-item-risks { grid-column: span 12; md:grid-column: span 6; }
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@media (min-width: 768px) {
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.grid-item-vitals { grid-column: span 4; }
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.grid-item-strategy { grid-column: span 8; }
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.grid-item-logic { grid-column: span 7; }
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.grid-item-timeline { grid-column: span 5; }
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.grid-item-impact { grid-column: span 6; }
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.grid-item-risks { grid-column: span 6; }
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}
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.bg-deep-space {
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position: fixed;
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top: 0;
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left: 0;
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width: 100%;
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height: 100%;
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z-index: -1;
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background: #0a0a0f;
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overflow: hidden;
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}
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.glow-1 {
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position: absolute;
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width: 800px;
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height: 800px;
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left: -20%;
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top: -30%;
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background: radial-gradient(circle, rgba(61, 90, 254, 0.15) 0%, rgba(61, 90, 254, 0) 70%);
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animation: pulse-glow 15s infinite alternate;
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}
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.glow-2 {
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position: absolute;
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width: 1000px;
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height: 1000px;
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right: -30%;
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bottom: -40%;
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background: radial-gradient(circle, rgba(132, 74, 246, 0.1) 0%, rgba(132, 74, 246, 0) 70%);
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animation: pulse-glow 20s infinite alternate-reverse;
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}
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@keyframes pulse-glow {
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from { transform: scale(0.8); opacity: 0.7; }
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to { transform: scale(1.2); opacity: 1; }
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}
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.tab {
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transition: all 0.3s ease;
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color: #9ca3af;
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}
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.tab-active {
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color: #ffffff;
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border-bottom-color: #3d5afe !important;
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background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.05);
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}
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.table th, .table td {
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background-color: transparent !important;
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="min-h-screen">
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<div class="bg-deep-space">
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<div class="glow-1"></div>
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<div class="glow-2"></div>
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</div>
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8 relative z-10">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold font-space tracking-tighter text-transparent bg-clip-text bg-gradient-to-br from-white to-gray-400">三峡水运新通道</h1>
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<p class="text-lg md:text-xl text-gray-400 mt-2">A Deep Dive into the Mega-Project Shaping China's Golden Waterway</p>
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</header>
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<!-- Bento Grid Layout -->
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<!-- Concept Event -->
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<div class="grid-item-header glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold font-space text-cyan-400 mb-4">概念核心事件：从规划到现实</h2>
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<div class="text-gray-300 space-y-3 leading-relaxed">
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<p>“三峡水运新通道”是国家级重大基础设施工程，旨在根治长江黄金水道长达20年的核心瓶颈——三峡船闸拥堵问题。该问题已导致船舶平均待闸时间超<strong class="text-amber-400">200小时</strong>，严重制约上游经济发展。</p>
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<p><strong>政策铺垫与战略升级：</strong>项目与<strong class="text-white">川藏铁路、平陆运河</strong>并列为国家三大工程，被湖北省定位为“支点工程”与“压舱项目”，显示其极高的推进确定性。</p>
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<p><strong>核心催化：</strong><strong class="text-lime-400">2025年6月3-6日</strong>，项目勘察设计招标公告正式发布，标志着项目由远期规划进入<strong class="text-white">实质性推进阶段</strong>。由三峡集团全资控股、注册资本100亿的“三峡水运新通道（湖北）有限公司”已成立，为项目实施提供了组织保障。官方预期“年内力争开工”。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Project Vitals -->
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<div class="grid-item-vitals glass-card p-6 md:p-8 flex flex-col justify-between">
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<h2 class="text-xl font-bold font-space text-fuchsia-400 mb-4">项目关键数据</h2>
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<div class="space-y-4 text-lg">
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<div>
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<p class="text-gray-400 text-sm">静态总投资</p>
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<p class="text-3xl font-bold text-white">766 亿元</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<p class="text-gray-400 text-sm">总工期</p>
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<p class="text-3xl font-bold text-white">100 个月</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<p class="text-gray-400 text-sm">项目构成</p>
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<p class="text-white">三峡枢纽新通道 + 葛洲坝航运扩能</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Strategic Importance -->
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<div class="grid-item-strategy glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="text-xl font-bold font-space text-orange-400 mb-4">国家战略定位</h2>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-gray-300 list-disc list-inside leading-relaxed">
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<li><strong class="text-white">政治任务：</strong>落实国家重大战略，服务长江经济带发展。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">生产力布局：</strong>国家级重大生产力布局，提升长江“黄金水道”能级。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">区域支点：</strong>湖北省建设中部崛起重要战略支点的“支点工程”。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">经济压舱石：</strong>巨额投资有效拉动内需，是促进经济持续回升向好的“压舱项目”。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<!-- Core Logic & Market Insight -->
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<div class="grid-item-logic glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold font-space text-cyan-400 mb-4">核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h2>
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<p class="mb-4 text-gray-400">这是一个由国家战略驱动、解决明确物理瓶颈的万亿级产业链基建项目，正处于从<strong class="text-white">“主题预期”向“订单兑现”过渡的关键时期。</strong></p>
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<div class="space-y-4 text-gray-300">
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-white">核心驱动力</h3>
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<p>政策驱动下的逆周期基建投资，旨在解决实体经济中的物理瓶颈。项目推进确定性极高，资金来源已落实，是稳定投资、拉动内需的重要工具。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-white">市场热度与情绪</h3>
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<p>当前市场热度极高，情绪极度乐观，普遍聚焦于其巨大的投资规模和对产业链的直接拉动效应。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-white">预期差分析</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside mt-2 space-y-2">
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<li><strong class="text-amber-400">规模与节奏预期差：</strong>766亿总投资巨大，但需求释放是渐进且高度集中的。市场可能高估了短期业绩兑现速度，低估了其长期性。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-amber-400">受益环节预期差：</strong>当前市场聚焦建设端（施工、建材），但长期最大受益者是运营端（港口、航运），后者关注度相对较低。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-amber-400">信息可靠性预期差：</strong>市场流传的“月中开工”等传言与官方“年内力争开工”存在时间差，反映了市场情绪的抢跑。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Project Timeline Chart -->
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<div class="grid-item-timeline glass-card p-6 md:p-8 flex flex-col">
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<h2 class="text-xl font-bold font-space text-lime-400 mb-4">项目发展路径与催化剂</h2>
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<div id="timeline-chart" class="flex-grow min-h-[300px]"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Data Hub (News, Roadshow, Reports) -->
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<div class="grid-item-datahub glass-card p-6 md:p-8" x-data="{ tab: 'news' }">
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<div class="tabs tabs-bordered mb-4">
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<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'news' }" @click="tab = 'news'">新闻速览</a>
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<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'roadshow' }" @click="tab = 'roadshow'">路演纪要</a>
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<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'report' }" @click="tab = 'report'">研报精粹</a>
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</div>
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<div class="text-gray-300 space-y-3 leading-relaxed min-h-[250px]">
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<div x-show="tab === 'news'">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-white mb-2">项目概况与进展</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside">
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<li><strong>招标启动:</strong> 2025年6月6日，发布《三峡水运新通道项目勘察设计招标公告》。</li>
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<li><strong>项目公司成立:</strong> “三峡水运新通道（湖北）有限公司”成立，注册资本100亿，由三峡集团全资持股。</li>
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<li><strong>核心目标:</strong> 彻底解决三峡船闸拥堵，终结船舶平均待闸超200小时的历史。</li>
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<li><strong>效益预测:</strong> 长江上游航运能力将提升至2.8亿吨，带动施工、民爆、水泥等需求。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'roadshow'" style="display: none;">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-white mb-2">关键信息与数据</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside">
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<li><strong>核心议题:</strong> 围绕项目落地，探讨水运投资的经济效益、战略意义及相关企业投资机会。</li>
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<li><strong>关键年份:</strong> 2025年被视为建设关键年，项目被列为“交通强国重大项目”，年内力争开工。</li>
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<li><strong>上游需求:</strong> 预计2026年，项目将产生1万吨炸药需求，对应收入2000万元+（来自易普力路演），为需求释放提供了具体锚点。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'report'" style="display: none;">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-white mb-2">分析师观点</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside">
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<li><strong>建设必要性:</strong> 三峡船闸2023年通过量达1.74亿吨，远超设计标准，拥堵已成常态，是制约重庆等地发展的“卡脖子”问题。</li>
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<li><strong>建设内容:</strong> 采用双线连续五级船闸方案，设计通航能力为万吨级。</li>
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<li><strong>产业链影响:</strong> 项目体量大、周期长，将对施工、民爆、建材（高标号水泥、骨料）等形成实质性拉动。</li>
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<li><strong>潜在受益标的:</strong> 重点关注工程建设（重庆建工、中国电建）、民爆（易普力）、建材（华新水泥）等。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Industry Impact -->
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<div class="grid-item-impact glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="text-xl font-bold font-space text-amber-400 mb-4">产业链深度剖析</h2>
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<div class="space-y-4 text-gray-300">
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-white">上游 (设计与材料)</h3>
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<p>工程勘察设计先行，核心建材如特种水泥 (华新水泥)、民用爆破 (易普力) 需求确定性高。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-white">中游 (工程总承包)</h3>
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<p>央企巨头 (中国能建、中国交建) 经验丰富，是潜在最大订单获得者。地方龙头 (重庆建工) 区域优势明显，业绩弹性更大。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-white">下游 (运营与服务)</h3>
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<p>项目建成后，上游核心港口 (重庆港)、航运物流企业 (凤凰航运) 将长期受益于通航效率提升和物流成本下降，是长线价值投资标的。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Risks & Challenges -->
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<div class="grid-item-risks glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="text-xl font-bold font-space text-red-400 mb-4">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-gray-300 list-disc list-inside leading-relaxed">
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<li><strong class="text-white">工程实施风险:</strong> 工期长、组织复杂，面临地质条件、极端天气等不确定性。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">资金到位风险:</strong> 虽然资金“已落实”，但宏观层面基建资金到位率并非100%顺畅，需关注实际拨付节奏。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">订单分配风险:</strong> 市场预期多家公司受益，但订单可能高度集中于少数头部企业，竞争激烈。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">预期兑现风险:</strong> 市场情绪超前，若项目开工或订单落地速度不及预期，可能引发回调。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Stock Table -->
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<div class="mt-12">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold font-space text-center mb-8 text-transparent bg-clip-text bg-gradient-to-br from-white to-gray-400">核心受益标的分析</h2>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card p-4 md:p-6">
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<table class="table w-full">
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<thead>
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<tr class="border-b border-gray-700">
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<th class="text-base text-gray-300 font-space">股票名称</th>
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<th class="text-base text-gray-300 font-space">股票代码</th>
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<th class="text-base text-gray-300 font-space">核心逻辑</th>
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<th class="text-base text-gray-300 font-space">产业链位置</th>
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<th class="text-base text-gray-300 font-space">信息来源</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr class="border-b border-gray-800 hover:bg-gray-800/50">
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<td class="font-semibold text-white">重庆建工</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600939" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">600939</a></td>
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<td class="text-gray-300">重庆市最大建筑企业，具备水利水电工程总承包资质，区域优势显著。</td>
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<td class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">潜在建设机会</td>
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<td class="text-gray-400">互动</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="border-b border-gray-800 hover:bg-gray-800/50">
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<td class="font-semibold text-white">易普力</td>
|
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002096" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">002096</a></td>
|
||
<td class="text-gray-300">中国建筑旗下专业爆破公司，曾参与三峡水电站建设，民爆需求确定性高。</td>
|
||
<td class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">潜在建设机会</td>
|
||
<td class="text-gray-400">互动/路演</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-800 hover:bg-gray-800/50">
|
||
<td class="font-semibold text-white">华新水泥</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td class="text-gray-300">湖北本地企业，葛洲坝、三峡工程特种水泥主要供应商，技术与历史合作构成护城河。</td>
|
||
<td class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">潜在建设机会</td>
|
||
<td class="text-gray-400">互动</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-800 hover:bg-gray-800/50">
|
||
<td class="font-semibold text-white">中国能建</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601868" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">601868</a></td>
|
||
<td class="text-gray-300">历史参与三峡工程建设，具备水电工程总承包能力，潜在订单规模最大。</td>
|
||
<td class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">潜在建设机会</td>
|
||
<td class="text-gray-400">互动</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-800 hover:bg-gray-800/50">
|
||
<td class="font-semibold text-white">中国交建</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601800" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">601800</a></td>
|
||
<td class="text-gray-300">公告明确提及做好三峡水运新通道经营策略工作，参与意愿明确。</td>
|
||
<td class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">潜在建设机会</td>
|
||
<td class="text-gray-400">公告</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-800 hover:bg-gray-800/50">
|
||
<td class="font-semibold text-white">重庆港</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600279" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">600279</a></td>
|
||
<td class="text-gray-300">上游核心港口，新通道建成后将直接受益于货源集聚和物流成本下降，长期价值标的。</td>
|
||
<td class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">物流提效</td>
|
||
<td class="text-gray-400">互动</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-800 hover:bg-gray-800/50">
|
||
<td class="font-semibold text-white">凤凰航运</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000520" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">000520</a></td>
|
||
<td class="text-gray-300">干散货航运企业，航道效率提升将直接利好其船队周转率和盈利能力。</td>
|
||
<td class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">物流提效</td>
|
||
<td class="text-gray-400">公告</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-gray-800/50">
|
||
<td class="font-semibold text-white">三峡旅游</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002627" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">002627</a></td>
|
||
<td class="text-gray-300">宜昌本地旅游企业，通航效率提升利好其游轮业务，但关联度相对较弱。</td>
|
||
<td class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">周边地区 (弱关联)</td>
|
||
<td class="text-gray-400">互动</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Footer -->
|
||
<footer class="text-center mt-12 text-gray-500 text-sm">
|
||
<p>北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现</p>
|
||
<p>本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。</p>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function () {
|
||
var chartDom = document.getElementById('timeline-chart');
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var myChart = echarts.init(chartDom);
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var option;
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option = {
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tooltip: {
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trigger: 'axis',
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formatter: function (params) {
|
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return params[0].name + '<br/>' + params[0].marker + ' ' + params[0].seriesName + ': ' + params[0].value + '年';
|
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}
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},
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grid: {
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left: '3%',
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right: '4%',
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|
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},
|
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xAxis: {
|
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axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#4a5568' } },
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axisLabel: { color: '#a0aec0' }
|
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},
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yAxis: {
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type: 'value',
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min: 2024,
|
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max: 2035,
|
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axisLabel: { color: '#a0aec0' },
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splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#2d3748' } }
|
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},
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series: [
|
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{
|
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name: '开始年份',
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type: 'bar',
|
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stack: 'total',
|
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barWidth: '40%',
|
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label: {
|
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show: true,
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position: 'inside',
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formatter: '{c}年起',
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color: '#fff'
|
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},
|
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itemStyle: {
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color: 'transparent'
|
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},
|
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data: [2025, 2027, 2032, 2034]
|
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},
|
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{
|
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name: '持续时间',
|
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type: 'bar',
|
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stack: 'total',
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label: {
|
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show: true,
|
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position: 'top',
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formatter: function(params) {
|
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let duration = [2, 5, 2, '长期'];
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return `持续${duration[params.dataIndex]}年`;
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|
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myChart.setOption(option);
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window.addEventListener('resize', myChart.resize);
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</body>
|
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</html> |