427 lines
29 KiB
HTML
427 lines
29 KiB
HTML
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<title>小米汽车产业链弹性测算 - 深度投研报告</title>
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<div class="turrell-glow glow-1"></div>
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<div class="turrell-glow glow-2"></div>
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<main class="relative z-10 p-4 sm:p-6 md:p-8 lg:p-12">
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<header class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="fui-title text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold mb-4">小米汽车产业链弹性测算</h1>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 max-w-3xl mx-auto">
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北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现。本报告为AI合成数据，不构成投资建议，投资需谨慎。
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</p>
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</header>
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<!-- Section 1: Core Insight -->
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<section class="mb-12">
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<h2 class="fui-header text-3xl font-bold mb-6 border-l-4 border-cyan-400 pl-4">概念核心洞察 (Concept Insight)</h2>
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<div class="space-y-6">
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<!-- Concept Event -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="fui-header text-xl font-semibold mb-4">0. 概念事件：跨界巨头的确定性增量</h3>
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<div class="space-y-4 text-gray-300">
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<p><strong class="text-blue-300">背景描述：</strong>消费电子巨头小米集团于2021年进军智能电动汽车，首款车型SU7于2024年3月28日发布。其“人车家全生态”战略和极高市场关注度，预示着供应链体系将获得巨大订单增量。</p>
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<p><strong class="text-blue-300">核心催化事件：</strong><span class="highlight-text">小米SU7发布后订单量的井喷式增长</span>。开售27分钟大定破5万台，24小时达88,898台，远超市场预期。市场焦点迅速从“能卖多少车”转变为“供应链能否接住泼天富贵”，从而催生了对上游供应商的“产业链弹性测算”。</p>
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<div class="border-t border-blue-900/50 pt-4">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-300 mb-2">相关时间轴：</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1 text-sm">
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<li><strong>2024年3月12-13日：</strong>市场初步分析核心供应商单车价值量。</li>
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<li><strong>2024年3月28-31日：</strong>SU7订单井喷，密集路演召开，销量预测上调，弹性测算进入精细化阶段。</li>
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<li><strong>2024年11月-2025年1月：</strong>产能爬坡，月交付破2万，全年目标上调至13万辆，2025年目标35万辆，市场开始关注第二款SUV车型。</li>
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<li><strong>2025年6月-9月：</strong>市场开始交易小米YU7（SUV）发布预期，产业链弹性测算逻辑持续发酵。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Core Logic & Market Perception -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="fui-header text-xl font-semibold mb-4">1. 核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h3>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-300 mb-2">核心驱动力：新势力带来的确定性增量市场</h4>
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<ul class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-300 text-sm">
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<li><strong>流量转化能力：</strong>亿级手机用户和成熟粉丝社群，高效转化为汽车订单，这是其核心护城河。</li>
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<li><strong>资本与生态协同：</strong>超1300亿元现金储备提供“烧钱”后盾，“人车家全生态”构筑差异化竞争优势。</li>
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<li><strong>供应链重新赋能：</strong>为原有汽车供应链带来纯粹增量订单，对体量相对小、价值量高的公司业绩弹性极大。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-300 mb-2">市场热度与预期差</h4>
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<p class="text-gray-300 text-sm mb-2"><strong class="positive-text">高热度与乐观情绪：</strong>路演密集，相关个股异动频繁，销量预测从7-8万辆/年一路攀升至百万辆级别。</p>
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<p class="text-gray-300 text-sm"><strong class="critical-text">关键预期差：“订单热”与“盈利冷”的矛盾。</strong>市场普遍聚焦于销量和收入弹性，但对小米自身汽车业务的巨额亏损（预计2024年毛利率-14%）及其向供应链传导的成本压力认知不足。真正的弹性应是<span class="highlight-text">“新增收入 / 公司总营收”</span>的比值，而非简单的“高单车价值量”。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Catalysts & Future Path -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="fui-header text-xl font-semibold mb-4">2. 关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h3>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 text-gray-300 text-sm">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-300 mb-2">近期催化剂 (未来3-6个月)</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2">
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<li><strong>第二款车型(SUV YU7)发布与订单表现：</strong>验证小米多车型战略成功与否的关键。</li>
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<li><strong>月度交付数据的持续爬坡：</strong>验证产能和市场需求的“试金石”，能否稳定在2.5万辆/月以上。</li>
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<li><strong>城市NOA功能全国开通：</strong>智能化水平的直接体现，影响高配车型销量占比。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-300 mb-2">长期发展路径</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2">
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<li><strong>产能扩张 (2024-2025)：</strong>总产能从15万辆提升至30万辆，为冲击更高销量奠定基础。</li>
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<li><strong>产品矩阵丰富 (2025-2026)：</strong>推出增程版及新平台车型，覆盖更广消费群体，是实现60-100万辆中期目标的关键。</li>
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<li><strong>盈利与全球化 (2026以后)：</strong>汽车业务有望实现盈利（预计2026年毛利率转正），并进军欧洲市场。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Core Company Analysis -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="fui-header text-xl font-semibold mb-4">3. 核心公司深度剖析</h3>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="bg-gray-900/30 p-4 rounded-xl">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-300">逻辑最纯粹 & 弹性最高者: 无锡振华 (605319)</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-1"><strong class="positive-text">优势:</strong> 车身冲压件为必需品。单车价值2300元，但2024年小米业务占其收入预计达 <span class="highlight-text">10%-15%</span>，赋予其无与伦比的业绩弹性。<br>
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<strong class="critical-text">风险:</strong> 技术壁垒相对低，利润率可能受压。路演与机构预测的收入占比存在巨大矛盾，需警惕预期过高。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-gray-900/30 p-4 rounded-xl">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-300">高价值量 & 智能化龙头: 德赛西威 (002920)</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-1"><strong class="positive-text">优势:</strong> 提供智舱和智驾域控，单车价值量极高（7000元至1.5万元）。研报测算2026年小米业务可贡献 <span class="highlight-text">136亿元</span> 收入，潜力巨大。<br>
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<strong class="critical-text">风险:</strong> 公司体量大，初期收入占比较低，短期弹性不如无锡振华。业绩高度依赖高配车型销量及智驾选配率。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-gray-900/30 p-4 rounded-xl">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-300">底盘系统核心供应商: 拓普集团 (601689)</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-1"><strong class="positive-text">优势:</strong> 提供空悬、热管理等高价值系统，单车价值量高达7000-10000元。若小米销量达百万辆，其业务占比将从个位数升至“大几十”。<br>
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<strong class="critical-text">风险:</strong> 公司体量大，初期弹性有限。空悬等产品主要用于高配版，业绩受车型配置销售结构影响大。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Risks & Challenges -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6" x-data="{ open: false }">
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<h3 class="fui-header text-xl font-semibold mb-4 flex justify-between items-center cursor-pointer" @click="open = !open">
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<span>4. 潜在风险与挑战</span>
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 transition-transform" :class="{'rotate-180': open}" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M5.293 7.293a1 1 0 011.414 0L10 10.586l3.293-3.293a1 1 0 111.414 1.414l-4 4a1 1 0 01-1.414 0l-4-4a1 1 0 010-1.414z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
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</h3>
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<div x-show="open" x-collapse>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 text-gray-300 text-sm pt-4">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-red-400 mb-2">技术与商业化风险</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2">
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<li><strong>智能驾驶落地不及预期：</strong>城市NOA若体验不佳或延迟，将打击其智能化标签。</li>
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<li><strong>产品安全与可靠性：</strong>“爆燃事件”等舆情暴露出潜在安全风险，任何严重事故都可能造成毁灭性打击。</li>
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<li><strong class="critical-text">盈利压力传导：</strong>小米汽车初期的负毛利率，未来极可能向供应链施加巨大的成本压力（年降）。</li>
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<li><strong>产能瓶颈：</strong>一期产能仅15万辆，若产能爬坡或二期建设不及预期，将无法承接订单。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-red-400 mb-2">竞争与信息交叉验证风险</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2">
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<li><strong>市场竞争加剧：</strong>中国新能源车市场是“红海中的红海”，价格战异常激烈。</li>
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<li><strong>核心矛盾1 (销量预测不一)：</strong>不同机构、不同时点对销量预测存在巨大差异，给弹性测算基数带来不确定性。</li>
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<li><strong>核心矛盾2 (收入占比口径不一)：</strong>如无锡振华的收入占比数据冲突，反映市场预期与机构测算温差，是关键风险点。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Section 2: Supporting Data & Visualization (Bento Grid) -->
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<section class="mb-12">
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<h2 class="fui-header text-3xl font-bold mb-6 border-l-4 border-cyan-400 pl-4">数据透视 (Data Dashboard)</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<!-- Roadshow Highlights -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 lg:col-span-1">
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<h3 class="fui-header text-xl font-semibold mb-4">路演纪要精粹</h3>
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<div class="space-y-3 text-sm text-gray-300">
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<div>
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<p class="font-semibold text-blue-300">销量目标 (动态上调)</p>
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<p>2024年: 从7-10万辆上调至<span class="highlight-text">13万辆</span></p>
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<p>2025年: 预测区间从10-30万辆扩大至<span class="highlight-text">35-81万辆</span></p>
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<p>中长期: 冲击<span class="highlight-text">百万辆</span>级别</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<p class="font-semibold text-blue-300">产能规划</p>
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<p>一期: 15万辆/年；二期(2025年完工): 总产能达<span class="highlight-text">30万辆/年</span></p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<p class="font-semibold text-blue-300">新车型规划</p>
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<p>SUV车型 (YU7): 预计2025年Q1量产</p>
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<p>增程版: 预计2025年底-2026年推出</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- ECharts Visualization -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 lg:col-span-2">
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<h3 class="fui-header text-xl font-semibold mb-4">核心供应商收入弹性对比 (2024E vs 2025E)</h3>
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<div id="elasticity-chart" class="w-full h-80 md:h-96"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Research Report Findings -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 lg:col-span-3">
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<h3 class="fui-header text-xl font-semibold mb-4">研报核心发现</h3>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-300 mb-2">核心受益标的弹性排序 (东吴证券)</h4>
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<ol class="list-decimal list-inside text-gray-300 space-y-1">
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<li><strong>德赛西威</strong> (高阶/座舱域控)</li>
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<li><strong>经纬恒润</strong> (TBOX/区域控制器)</li>
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<li><strong>拓普集团</strong> (底盘、空悬)</li>
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<li><strong>华阳集团</strong> (汽车电子)</li>
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<li><strong>新泉股份</strong> (内饰件)</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-300 mb-2">德赛西威收入弹性测算 (示例)</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-300 text-sm">基于65%智驾选配率假设：</p>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside text-gray-300 mt-1">
|
||
<li><strong>2024年(中性):</strong> 贡献收入 <span class="highlight-text">35亿元</span></li>
|
||
<li><strong>2026年(中性):</strong> 贡献收入 <span class="highlight-text">136亿元</span></li>
|
||
<li><strong>2026年(乐观):</strong> 贡献收入 <span class="highlight-text">210亿元</span></li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Section 3: Stock List -->
|
||
<section>
|
||
<h2 class="fui-header text-3xl font-bold mb-6 border-l-4 border-cyan-400 pl-4">产业链核心标的清单 (Core Suppliers)</h2>
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-4 sm:p-6 overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra table-sm md:table-md w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr class="text-blue-200">
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>供应产品/原因</th>
|
||
<th>单车价值量(元)</th>
|
||
<th>配套份额</th>
|
||
<th>收入占比 (2024E)</th>
|
||
<th>收入占比 (2025E)</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<!-- Data will be populated by script or manually from JSON -->
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688326" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">经纬恒润</a></td><td>提供区域域控及其他域控</td><td>3500</td><td>100%</td><td class="font-semibold text-orange-300">4.9%</td><td class="font-semibold text-green-300">9.8%</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=605319" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">无锡振华</a></td><td>提供白车身冲压件</td><td>1500-1600</td><td>100%</td><td class="font-semibold text-orange-300">4.4%</td><td class="font-semibold text-green-300">9.2%</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300375" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">鹏翎股份</a></td><td>提供橡胶管路</td><td>500-1000</td><td>100%</td><td class="font-semibold text-orange-300">3.3%</td><td class="font-semibold text-green-300">6.8%</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301307" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">美利信</a></td><td>提供三电类结构件</td><td>1500-1800</td><td>100%</td><td class="font-semibold text-orange-300">3.2%</td><td class="font-semibold text-green-300">6.6%</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000700" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">模塑科技</a></td><td>提供保险杠</td><td>2000-3000</td><td>100%</td><td class="font-semibold text-orange-300">2.5%</td><td class="font-semibold text-green-300">5.5%</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300680" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">隆盛科技</a></td><td>提供高转速电机铁芯</td><td>800</td><td>100%</td><td class="font-semibold text-orange-300">2.5%</td><td class="font-semibold text-green-300">4.8%</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002920" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">德赛西威</a></td><td>提供智能驾驶及座舱产品</td><td class="text-yellow-300 font-bold">7000-8000</td><td>100%</td><td class="font-semibold text-orange-300">2.2%</td><td class="font-semibold text-green-300">4.4%</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601689" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">拓普集团</a></td><td>提供底盘、减震、空悬</td><td class="text-yellow-300 font-bold">7000</td><td>100%</td><td class="font-semibold text-orange-300">2.0%</td><td class="font-semibold text-green-300">3.8%</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>一汽富维</td><td>提供座椅及车身附件</td><td class="text-yellow-300 font-bold">4000-6000</td><td>100%</td><td>1.6%</td><td>3.4%</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603035" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">常熟汽饰</a></td><td>提供立柱护板</td><td>1000</td><td>100%</td><td>1.4%</td><td>3.0%</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002906" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">华阳集团</a></td><td>提供仪表</td><td>1000-2000</td><td>100%</td><td>1.4%</td><td>2.8%</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=605333" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">沪光股份</a></td><td>提供线束</td><td>1000</td><td>100%</td><td>1.1%</td><td>2.2%</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002126" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">银轮股份</a></td><td>提供热管理前端模块</td><td>~1000</td><td>100%</td><td>0.6%</td><td>1.2%</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300258" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">精锻科技</a></td><td>提供差速器总成</td><td>200-300</td><td>100%</td><td>0.6%</td><td>1.2%</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603179" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">新泉股份</a></td><td>提供门板</td><td>600-800</td><td>100%</td><td>0.4%</td><td>0.8%</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603197" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">保隆科技</a></td><td>提供储气罐、胎压监测</td><td>300-400</td><td>100%</td><td>0.4%</td><td>0.8%</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603997" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">继峰股份</a></td><td>提供冰箱</td><td>1800</td><td>100%</td><td>0.3%</td><td>0.7%</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000559" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">万向钱潮</a></td><td>提供等速驱动轴</td><td>200-300</td><td>100%</td><td>0.1%</td><td>0.2%</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603037" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">凯众股份</a></td><td>小米持有其子公司18%股权,进行线控产品同步开发</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002997" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">瑞鹄模具</a></td><td>为小米汽车提供两款车覆盖件模具（项目价值~7000万）</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function () {
|
||
const chartDom = document.getElementById('elasticity-chart');
|
||
const myChart = echarts.init(chartDom, 'dark'); // Use dark theme
|
||
|
||
const rawData = [
|
||
{stock: "经纬恒润", val24: 4.9, val25: 9.8},
|
||
{stock: "无锡振华", val24: 4.4, val25: 9.2},
|
||
{stock: "鹏翎股份", val24: 3.3, val25: 6.8},
|
||
{stock: "美利信", val24: 3.2, val25: 6.6},
|
||
{stock: "模塑科技", val24: 2.5, val25: 5.5},
|
||
{stock: "隆盛科技", val24: 2.5, val25: 4.8},
|
||
{stock: "德赛西威", val24: 2.2, val25: 4.4},
|
||
{stock: "拓普集团", val24: 2.0, val25: 3.8},
|
||
{stock: "常熟汽饰", val24: 1.4, val25: 3.0},
|
||
{stock: "华阳集团", val24: 1.4, val25: 2.8}
|
||
].sort((a, b) => b.val25 - a.val25); // Sort by 2025E value
|
||
|
||
const option = {
|
||
backgroundColor: 'transparent',
|
||
tooltip: {
|
||
trigger: 'axis',
|
||
axisPointer: {
|
||
type: 'shadow'
|
||
},
|
||
formatter: function(params) {
|
||
let tooltipText = `${params[0].name}<br/>`;
|
||
params.forEach(param => {
|
||
tooltipText += `${param.marker} ${param.seriesName}: ${param.value}%<br/>`;
|
||
});
|
||
return tooltipText;
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
legend: {
|
||
data: ['收入占比 (2024E)', '收入占比 (2025E)'],
|
||
textStyle: {
|
||
color: '#ccc'
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
grid: {
|
||
left: '3%',
|
||
right: '4%',
|
||
bottom: '3%',
|
||
containLabel: true
|
||
},
|
||
xAxis: {
|
||
type: 'value',
|
||
boundaryGap: [0, 0.01],
|
||
axisLabel: {
|
||
formatter: '{value}%',
|
||
color: '#ccc'
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
yAxis: {
|
||
type: 'category',
|
||
data: rawData.map(item => item.stock),
|
||
axisLabel: {
|
||
color: '#ccc'
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
series: [
|
||
{
|
||
name: '收入占比 (2024E)',
|
||
type: 'bar',
|
||
data: rawData.map(item => item.val24),
|
||
itemStyle: {
|
||
color: new echarts.graphic.LinearGradient(1, 0, 0, 0, [
|
||
{ offset: 0, color: '#f97316' }, // orange-500
|
||
{ offset: 1, color: '#fb923c' } // orange-400
|
||
])
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
name: '收入占比 (2025E)',
|
||
type: 'bar',
|
||
data: rawData.map(item => item.val25),
|
||
itemStyle: {
|
||
color: new echarts.graphic.LinearGradient(1, 0, 0, 0, [
|
||
{ offset: 0, color: '#22c55e' }, // green-500
|
||
{ offset: 1, color: '#4ade80' } // green-400
|
||
])
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
]
|
||
};
|
||
|
||
myChart.setOption(option);
|
||
window.addEventListener('resize', () => {
|
||
myChart.resize();
|
||
});
|
||
});
|
||
</script>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html> |