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<title>特斯拉FSD - 深度投研报告</title>
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<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto space-y-12">
<!-- Header -->
<header class="text-center space-y-4">
<h1 class="text-4xl sm:text-5xl lg:text-6xl font-bold tracking-tight bg-gradient-to-r from-slate-200 to-slate-400 text-transparent bg-clip-text">
特斯拉FSD (Full Self-Driving)
</h1>
<h2 class="text-xl sm:text-2xl font-light text-slate-300">深度投研报告</h2>
<p class="text-xs text-slate-500 pt-4">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现本报告为AI合成数据投资需谨慎。</p>
</header>
<!-- Insight Section (Bento Grid) -->
<main class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-4 gap-6">
<div class="lg:col-span-4 p-6 sm:p-8 glass-card glow-border">
<h3 class="section-title mb-4">核心观点摘要</h3>
<p class="text-slate-300 leading-relaxed">
特斯拉FSD正处在一个从<strong class="highlight-text">技术验证</strong><strong class="highlight-text">全球商业化扩张</strong>的关键过渡期。其核心驱动力在于“<strong class="highlight-text">数据飞轮 + 端到端AI模型 + 强大算力</strong>”构成的技术壁垒,未来最大的潜力在于从软件销售延伸至<strong class="highlight-text">Robotaxi无人驾驶服务</strong>和潜在的<strong class="highlight-text">技术授权</strong>。然而,其在中国市场的落地进程正面临<strong class="text-red-400">监管审批</strong><strong class="text-red-400">本地化适配</strong>的双重考验,构成了当前最大的不确定性与预期差来源。
</p>
</div>
<div class="lg:col-span-2 p-6 sm:p-8 glass-card">
<h3 class="section-title mb-4">核心驱动力</h3>
<ul class="space-y-4 text-slate-300">
<li class="flex items-start">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 mr-3 mt-1 flex-shrink-0 text-indigo-400" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.707-8.707l-3-3a1 1 0 00-1.414 1.414L10.586 9H7a1 1 0 100 2h3.586l-1.293 1.293a1 1 0 101.414 1.414l3-3a1 1 0 000-1.414z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
<span><strong class="text-slate-100">技术范式领先:</strong> 坚持纯视觉、端到端方案,硬件成本仅<strong class="highlight-text">3000-3500元</strong>领先国内主流方案约3代。</span>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 mr-3 mt-1 flex-shrink-0 text-indigo-400" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor"><path d="M10 12a2 2 0 100-4 2 2 0 000 4z" /><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M.458 10C1.732 5.943 5.522 3 10 3s8.268 2.943 9.542 7c-1.274 4.057-5.022 7-9.542 7S1.732 14.057.458 10zM14 10a4 4 0 11-8 0 4 4 0 018 0z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
<span><strong class="text-slate-100">数据飞轮效应:</strong> 全球数百万辆车提供海量数据,累计行驶里程超<strong class="highlight-text">64亿英里</strong>,形成“数据收集-训练-OTA”高效闭环。</span>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 mr-3 mt-1 flex-shrink-0 text-indigo-400" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M5 3a2 2 0 00-2 2v10a2 2 0 002 2h10a2 2 0 002-2V5a2 2 0 00-2-2H5zm0 2h10v7h-2l-1 2H8l-1-2H5V5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
<span><strong class="text-slate-100">算力基础设施:</strong> 重金投入自研<strong class="highlight-text">Dojo超算中心</strong>和庞大H100集群2024年算力达<strong class="highlight-text">100 EFLOPS</strong>,远超国内厂商。</span>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="lg:col-span-2 p-6 sm:p-8 glass-card">
<h3 class="section-title mb-4">预期差分析</h3>
<ul class="space-y-4 text-slate-300">
<li class="flex items-start">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 mr-3 mt-1 flex-shrink-0 text-yellow-400" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M8.257 3.099c.765-1.36 2.722-1.36 3.486 0l5.58 9.92c.75 1.334-.21 3.001-1.742 3.001H4.42c-1.532 0-2.492-1.667-1.742-3.001l5.58-9.92zM10 13a1 1 0 110-2 1 1 0 010 2zm-1-8a1 1 0 00-1 1v3a1 1 0 002 0V6a1 1 0 00-1-1z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
<span><strong class="text-slate-100">入华进程:</strong> 市场普遍预期25年Q1顺利落地但面临<strong class="text-red-400">数据训练许可无明确时间表</strong><strong class="text-red-400">数据跨境训练</strong>的核心障碍。</span>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 mr-3 mt-1 flex-shrink-0 text-yellow-400" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M8.257 3.099c.765-1.36 2.722-1.36 3.486 0l5.58 9.92c.75 1.334-.21 3.001-1.742 3.001H4.42c-1.532 0-2.492-1.667-1.742-3.001l5.58-9.92zM10 13a1 1 0 110-2 1 1 0 010 2zm-1-8a1 1 0 00-1 1v3a1 1 0 002 0V6a1 1 0 00-1-1z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
<span><strong class="text-slate-100">技术表现:</strong> FSD底层模型强大但国内路测初期<strong class="text-red-400">接管次数高于</strong>理想、小鹏,存在“水土不服”,短期产品体验或被高估。</span>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="lg:col-span-2 p-6 sm:p-8 glass-card">
<h3 class="section-title mb-4">关键催化剂</h3>
<ul class="space-y-3 text-slate-300">
<li><span class="font-mono text-indigo-400 mr-2">&gt;</span>中国监管关于数据、地图、软件审批的<strong class="text-slate-100">明确信号</strong></li>
<li><span class="font-mono text-indigo-400 mr-2">&gt;</span>FSD V13.2及后续版本<strong class="text-slate-100">接管里程数据</strong>的验证能否达8k公里</li>
<li><span class="font-mono text-indigo-400 mr-2">&gt;</span>Robotaxi在美国<strong class="text-slate-100">商业化扩张</strong>(从奥斯汀到更多城市)。</li>
<li><span class="font-mono text-indigo-400 mr-2">&gt;</span>硬件<strong class="text-slate-100">HW5.0</strong>的发布。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="lg:col-span-2 p-6 sm:p-8 glass-card">
<h3 class="section-title mb-4">FSD 累计行驶里程</h3>
<div id="mileageChart" style="width: 100%; height: 200px;"></div>
</div>
</main>
<!-- Supporting Data Section (Tabs) -->
<section class="glass-card p-6 sm:p-8" x-data="{ tab: 'news' }">
<div class="border-b border-slate-700 mb-6">
<nav class="-mb-px flex space-x-8" aria-label="Tabs">
<button @click="tab = 'news'" :class="{ 'border-indigo-400 text-indigo-300': tab === 'news', 'border-transparent text-slate-400 hover:text-slate-200 hover:border-slate-500': tab !== 'news' }" class="whitespace-nowrap py-4 px-1 border-b-2 font-medium text-sm transition-colors duration-200">
最新动态 (新闻)
</button>
<button @click="tab = 'roadshow'" :class="{ 'border-indigo-400 text-indigo-300': tab === 'roadshow', 'border-transparent text-slate-400 hover:text-slate-200 hover:border-slate-500': tab !== 'roadshow' }" class="whitespace-nowrap py-4 px-1 border-b-2 font-medium text-sm transition-colors duration-200">
路演纪要
</button>
<button @click="tab = 'research'" :class="{ 'border-indigo-400 text-indigo-300': tab === 'research', 'border-transparent text-slate-400 hover:text-slate-200 hover:border-slate-500': tab !== 'research' }" class="whitespace-nowrap py-4 px-1 border-b-2 font-medium text-sm transition-colors duration-200">
研报精粹
</button>
</nav>
</div>
<div class="space-y-4 text-slate-300 text-sm leading-relaxed">
<!-- News Content -->
<div x-show="tab === 'news'" x-transition>
<div class="space-y-4">
<details class="space-y-2 group">
<summary class="details-summary list-none flex items-center justify-between cursor-pointer p-3 rounded-lg hover:bg-slate-800/50 transition-colors">
<span class="font-semibold text-slate-100">FSD在中国市场的落地与进展</span>
<svg class="w-5 h-5 text-slate-400 group-open:rotate-90 transition-transform" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M9 5l7 7-7 7"></path></svg>
</summary>
<div class="pl-5 pb-3 border-l border-slate-700 ml-3 space-y-2">
<p><strong class="text-slate-200">计划时间:</strong> 官方预计 <strong class="highlight-text">2025年Q1</strong> 在华推出 (待监管批准)。</p>
<p><strong class="text-slate-200">监管挑战:</strong> FSD入华尚未获批面临数据训练许可<strong class="text-red-400">无明确时间表</strong>,以及中美数据跨境训练的<strong class="text-red-400">双重限制</strong></p>
<p><strong class="text-slate-200">路测反馈:</strong> V13在北京/广州路测,<strong class="highlight-text">拟人感强、上限高</strong>,但因训练时间短,<strong class="text-red-400">接管次数高于</strong>理想/小鹏,存在“水土不服”问题。</p>
<p><strong class="text-slate-200">最新动态:</strong> 因需完成软件审批,特斯拉已<strong class="text-yellow-400">暂停FSD推送</strong> (2025-03-24)。</p>
</div>
</details>
<details class="space-y-2 group">
<summary class="details-summary list-none flex items-center justify-between cursor-pointer p-3 rounded-lg hover:bg-slate-800/50 transition-colors">
<span class="font-semibold text-slate-100">FSD版本迭代与技术细节</span>
<svg class="w-5 h-5 text-slate-400 group-open:rotate-90 transition-transform" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M9 5l7 7-7 7"></path></svg>
</summary>
<div class="pl-5 pb-3 border-l border-slate-700 ml-3 space-y-2">
<p><strong class="text-slate-200">V12.5:</strong> 整合城市与高速公路驾驶功能参数较V12.4提升<strong class="highlight-text">5倍多</strong></p>
<p><strong class="text-slate-200">V13:</strong> 必要干预里程较V12.5.4提升<strong class="highlight-text">5-6倍</strong>,推算可达<strong class="highlight-text">8000公里</strong>。引入音频输入。</p>
<p><strong class="text-slate-200">V13.2 (HW4.0):</strong> <strong class="highlight-text">4年来最大架构重构</strong>。实现车位到车位的智能驾驶训练算力扩展5倍数据集扩展4.2倍。</p>
</div>
</details>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Roadshow Content -->
<div x-show="tab === 'roadshow'" x-transition>
<div class="space-y-4">
<details class="space-y-2 group">
<summary class="details-summary list-none flex items-center justify-between cursor-pointer p-3 rounded-lg hover:bg-slate-800/50 transition-colors">
<span class="font-semibold text-slate-100">核心技术路线与优势</span>
<svg class="w-5 h-5 text-slate-400 group-open:rotate-90 transition-transform" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M9 5l7 7-7 7"></path></svg>
</summary>
<div class="pl-5 pb-3 border-l border-slate-700 ml-3 space-y-2">
<p><strong class="text-slate-200">技术代差:</strong> 端到端One Model架构领先国内两段式方案约<strong class="highlight-text">3代</strong></p>
<p><strong class="text-slate-200">硬件迭代:</strong> HW4.0算力为HW3.0的<strong class="highlight-text">5倍</strong>HW5.0计划再提升<strong class="highlight-text">10倍</strong></p>
<p><strong class="text-slate-200">安全性:</strong> 事故率行业最低,<strong class="highlight-text">500-600万公里/次事故</strong>远优于国内均值70万公里/次。</p>
</div>
</details>
<details class="space-y-2 group">
<summary class="details-summary list-none flex items-center justify-between cursor-pointer p-3 rounded-lg hover:bg-slate-800/50 transition-colors">
<span class="font-semibold text-slate-100">FSD入华进展与策略</span>
<svg class="w-5 h-5 text-slate-400 group-open:rotate-90 transition-transform" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M9 5l7 7-7 7"></path></svg>
</summary>
<div class="pl-5 pb-3 border-l border-slate-700 ml-3 space-y-2">
<p><strong class="text-slate-200">数据合规方案:</strong> 传闻采用“上海方案”,由国资托管数据,仅允许算法模型输出,避免原始数据外流。</p>
<p><strong class="text-slate-200">本地化伙伴:</strong><strong class="highlight-text">四维图新</strong>合作推进本地化数据。</p>
<p><strong class="text-slate-200">定价策略:</strong> 中国售价6.4万元,渗透率低,暂不考虑订阅制。</p>
</div>
</details>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Research Report Content -->
<div x-show="tab === 'research'" x-transition>
<div class="space-y-4">
<details class="space-y-2 group" open>
<summary class="details-summary list-none flex items-center justify-between cursor-pointer p-3 rounded-lg hover:bg-slate-800/50 transition-colors">
<span class="font-semibold text-slate-100">技术演进与Robotaxi</span>
<svg class="w-5 h-5 text-slate-400 group-open:rotate-90 transition-transform" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M9 5l7 7-7 7"></path></svg>
</summary>
<div class="pl-5 pb-3 border-l border-slate-700 ml-3 space-y-2">
<p><strong class="text-slate-200">技术路径:</strong> 从BEV+Transformer -> Occupancy Network -> Lane Network持续摆脱高精地图依赖。</p>
<p><strong class="text-slate-200">算力投资:</strong> 2024年自动驾驶领域投资超<strong class="highlight-text">100亿美元</strong>,德州超算中心拥有<strong class="highlight-text">5万颗H100</strong></p>
<p><strong class="text-slate-200">Robotaxi落地:</strong> 已在德州奥斯汀指定区域接单运营,按每单<strong class="highlight-text">4.2美元</strong>收费,计划年内扩张至旧金山、洛杉矶。</p>
</div>
</details>
<details class="space-y-2 group">
<summary class="details-summary list-none flex items-center justify-between cursor-pointer p-3 rounded-lg hover:bg-slate-800/50 transition-colors">
<span class="font-semibold text-slate-100">FSD入华合规进展</span>
<svg class="w-5 h-5 text-slate-400 group-open:rotate-90 transition-transform" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M9 5l7 7-7 7"></path></svg>
</summary>
<div class="pl-5 pb-3 border-l border-slate-700 ml-3 space-y-2">
<p><strong class="text-slate-200">数据本地化:</strong> 2021年已成立上海数据中心实现数据本地化存储。</p>
<p><strong class="text-slate-200">安全检测:</strong> 2024年4月特斯拉上海工厂车型通过《汽车数据处理安全要求检测》。</p>
<p><strong class="text-slate-200">地图合作:</strong> 在华与<strong class="highlight-text">百度地图</strong>合作使用高辅地图用于中国版FSD。</p>
</div>
</details>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Stock Data Section -->
<section class="space-y-8">
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold text-slate-100 text-center tracking-wide">产业链与核心公司</h3>
<div class="glass-card p-4 sm:p-6 overflow-x-auto">
<h4 class="section-title mb-4">特斯拉核心供应商</h4>
<table class="table table-sm">
<thead>
<tr class="border-b border-slate-700">
<th class="bg-transparent text-slate-300">股票名称</th>
<th class="bg-transparent text-slate-300">股票代码</th>
<th class="bg-transparent text-slate-300">核心逻辑</th>
<th class="bg-transparent text-slate-300 hidden md:table-cell">细分领域</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="border-b-0"><td>联创电子</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002036" target="_blank" class="text-indigo-400 hover:underline">002036</a></td><td>供货特斯拉车载镜头,已获认证通过,有正式订单。</td><td class="hidden md:table-cell">视觉感知</td></tr>
<tr class="border-b-0"><td>世运电路</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603920" target="_blank" class="text-indigo-400 hover:underline">603920</a></td><td>独家供应Dojo超算服务器PCB是占比超30%的核心供应商。</td><td class="hidden md:table-cell">算力硬件</td></tr>
<tr class="border-b-0"><td>美利信</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301307" target="_blank" class="text-indigo-400 hover:underline">301307</a></td><td>供货特斯拉自动驾驶数据处理单元结构件T公司是核心客户。</td><td class="hidden md:table-cell">决策层结构件</td></tr>
<tr class="border-b-0"><td>四维图新</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002405" target="_blank" class="text-indigo-400 hover:underline">002405</a></td><td>为特斯拉中国导航地图合作伙伴对FSD在华落地至关重要。</td><td class="hidden md:table-cell">地图与数据</td></tr>
<tr class="border-b-0"><td>宜通世纪</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300310" target="_blank" class="text-indigo-400 hover:underline">300310</a></td><td>作为特斯拉车联网中国大数据服务商。</td><td class="hidden md:table-cell">车联网服务</td></tr>
<tr class="border-b-0"><td>英利汽车</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601279" target="_blank" class="text-indigo-400 hover:underline">601279</a></td><td>特斯拉Model Y副车架Tier2供应商获北美客户副车架定点。</td><td class="hidden md:table-cell">车身及底盘</td></tr>
<tr class="border-b-0"><td>超声电子</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000823" target="_blank" class="text-indigo-400 hover:underline">000823</a></td><td>车载域控PCB受益L3/L4升级需求。</td><td class="hidden md:table-cell">PCB</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div class="glass-card p-4 sm:p-6 overflow-x-auto">
<h4 class="section-title mb-4">线控底盘 & 智能驾驶执行层</h4>
<table class="table table-sm">
<thead>
<tr class="border-b border-slate-700">
<th class="bg-transparent text-slate-300">股票名称</th>
<th class="bg-transparent text-slate-300">股票代码</th>
<th class="bg-transparent text-slate-300">核心逻辑</th>
<th class="bg-transparent text-slate-300 hidden md:table-cell">细分领域</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="border-b-0"><td>伯特利</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603596" target="_blank" class="text-indigo-400 hover:underline">603596</a></td><td>线控制动量产时间A股第一2021年6月</td><td class="hidden md:table-cell">线控制动</td></tr>
<tr class="border-b-0"><td>万安科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002590" target="_blank" class="text-indigo-400 hover:underline">002590</a></td><td>产品覆盖商用车线控制动(EBS/EMB)和乘用车线控制动(EHB)。</td><td class="hidden md:table-cell">线控制动/转向</td></tr>
<tr class="border-b-0"><td>浙江世宝</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002703" target="_blank" class="text-indigo-400 hover:underline">002703</a></td><td>自主研制智能转向,可应用于无人驾驶车辆。</td><td class="hidden md:table-cell">线控转向</td></tr>
<tr class="border-b-0"><td>拓普集团</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601689" target="_blank" class="text-indigo-400 hover:underline">601689</a></td><td>国内首家研发IBS汽车部件厂商IBS是L3+主动安全关键模块。</td><td class="hidden md:table-cell">智能底盘</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div class="glass-card p-4 sm:p-6 overflow-x-auto">
<h4 class="section-title mb-4">无人驾驶 & 车路协同(鲶鱼效应受益)</h4>
<table class="table table-sm">
<thead>
<tr class="border-b border-slate-700">
<th class="bg-transparent text-slate-300">股票名称</th>
<th class="bg-transparent text-slate-300">股票代码</th>
<th class="bg-transparent text-slate-300">核心逻辑</th>
<th class="bg-transparent text-slate-300 hidden md:table-cell">细分领域</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="border-b-0"><td>德赛西威</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002920" target="_blank" class="text-indigo-400 hover:underline">002920</a></td><td>国内智能座舱与智驾域控龙头,毫米波雷达已规模化量产。</td><td class="hidden md:table-cell">域控制器/毫米波雷达</td></tr>
<tr class="border-b-0"><td>欧菲光</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002456" target="_blank" class="text-indigo-400 hover:underline">002456</a></td><td>前视、周视、后视等车载摄像头产品均已量产。</td><td class="hidden md:table-cell">视觉感知</td></tr>
<tr class="border-b-0"><td>华域汽车</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600741" target="_blank" class="text-indigo-400 hover:underline">600741</a></td><td>毫米波雷达全品类批量供货,覆盖架构、算法、硬件等环节。</td><td class="hidden md:table-cell">毫米波雷达</td></tr>
<tr class="border-b-0"><td>万集科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300552" target="_blank" class="text-indigo-400 hover:underline">300552</a></td><td>192线车载激光雷达通过多家车企验证OBU销量第一。</td><td class="hidden md:table-cell">激光雷达/车路协同</td></tr>
<tr class="border-b-0"><td>金溢科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002869" target="_blank" class="text-indigo-400 hover:underline">002869</a></td><td>2023年OBU销量第二。</td><td class="hidden md:table-cell">车路协同</td></tr>
<tr class="border-b-0"><td>北汽蓝谷</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600733" target="_blank" class="text-indigo-400 hover:underline">600733</a></td><td>与百度深度合作,围绕第五代共享无人车已交付近千台。</td><td class="hidden md:table-cell">Robotaxi合作</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</section>
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