464 lines
28 KiB
HTML
464 lines
28 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>基孔肯雅热 - 深度概念分析</title>
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@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Space+Grotesk:wght@300;400;500;700&display=swap');
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font-family: 'Space Grotesk', sans-serif;
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background: #000005 url('https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1534796636912-3b95b3ab5986?q=80&w=3871&auto=format&fit=crop') center/cover no-repeat;
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position: relative;
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overflow-x: hidden;
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}
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body::before {
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content: '';
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position: absolute;
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background: radial-gradient(circle at 50% 50%, rgba(0, 0, 5, 0.1) 0%, rgba(0, 0, 5, 0.8) 70%, #000005 100%);
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z-index: 1;
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position: relative;
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background: rgba(18, 18, 28, 0.6);
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display: grid;
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gap: 1rem;
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grid-template-columns: repeat(12, 1fr);
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.section-header {
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font-size: 1.5rem;
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font-weight: 700;
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padding-bottom: 0.5rem;
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box-shadow: 0 0 10px #00f2ff;
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.table thead th {
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background-color: rgba(0, 242, 255, 0.05);
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color: #00f2ff;
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.table tbody tr:hover {
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background-color: rgba(142, 68, 173, 0.15);
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="text-gray-300">
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<main class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold bg-clip-text text-transparent bg-gradient-to-r from-cyan-300 via-purple-400 to-indigo-500 mb-4 animate-pulse">
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基孔肯雅热 (Chikungunya Fever)
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</h1>
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<p class="text-xl md:text-2xl text-gray-400">深度概念分析</p>
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</header>
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<!-- Core Insight -->
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<div class="grid-item col-span-12 glass-card p-6">
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<h2 class="section-header">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<p class="text-lg leading-relaxed">
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“基孔肯雅热”概念本质上是一个由<strong class="text-cyan-300">区域性突发公共卫生事件驱动</strong>的、生命周期较短的<strong class="text-purple-400">交易型主题</strong>。其核心驱动力源于疫情蔓延下对<strong class="text-cyan-300">“预防（驱蚊/灭杀）”</strong>和<strong class="text-cyan-300">“诊断（检测）”</strong>两大环节的短期需求激增预期。然而，该概念存在明显的“预期与现实”偏差：市场情绪放大了其商业价值，而疾病本身的<strong class="text-yellow-300">自限性、低重症率</strong>以及<strong class="text-yellow-300">海外疫苗研发的成熟进展</strong>，决定了其在国内的长期基本面支撑相对薄弱。
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</p>
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</div>
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<!-- Event Timeline -->
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<div class="grid-item col-span-4 glass-card p-6">
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<h2 class="section-header">概念事件脉络</h2>
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<ul class="space-y-4 timeline relative pl-8 border-l border-dashed border-gray-700">
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<li class="timeline-item">
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<p class="font-bold text-cyan-400">7月8日: 疫情开端</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">广东佛山发现首例输入性病例。</p>
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</li>
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<li class="timeline-item">
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<p class="font-bold text-cyan-400">7月22日: 国际预警</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">WHO发出警报，称全球550万人面临风险。</p>
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</li>
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<li class="timeline-item">
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<p class="font-bold text-purple-400">7月24日: 快速蔓延</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">佛山累计病例突破4000例，市场情绪引爆。</p>
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</li>
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<li class="timeline-item">
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<p class="font-bold text-purple-400">7月31日: 政策落地</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">国家卫健委发布《基孔肯雅热诊疗方案》。</p>
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</li>
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<li class="timeline-item">
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<p class="font-bold text-indigo-400">9月21-27日: 数据高峰</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">广东一周新增3153例，但均为轻症。</p>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<!-- Epidemic Data Chart -->
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<div class="grid-item col-span-8 glass-card p-6">
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<h2 class="section-header">广东省疫情发展趋势</h2>
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<div id="epidemicChart" style="width: 100%; height: 300px;"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Market Logic & Expectation Gap -->
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<div class="grid-item col-span-12 glass-card p-6">
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
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<div>
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<h2 class="section-header">市场核心逻辑</h2>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="p-4 border border-cyan-500/30 rounded-lg bg-cyan-500/5">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-cyan-300 text-lg">1. 预防需求 (最强逻辑)</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-400">由于病毒经伊蚊叮咬传播且国内暂无疫苗，物理/化学防蚊、灭蚊成为最直接防控手段，催生对驱蚊产品、卫生杀虫剂和环境消杀服务的脉冲式需求。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 border border-purple-500/30 rounded-lg bg-purple-500/5">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-purple-300 text-lg">2. 诊断需求 (次强逻辑)</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-400">“早发现、早溯源”是控制传播关键。因临床症状与登革热相似，需核酸/抗体检测鉴别，催生相关检测试剂盒的刚需。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h2 class="section-header text-yellow-300">关键预期差分析</h2>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="p-4 border border-yellow-500/30 rounded-lg bg-yellow-500/5">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-yellow-300 text-lg">国内炒作 vs. 全球方案</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-400">国内市场普遍强调<strong class="text-white">“我国尚无可供使用的疫苗”</strong>。然而，海外路演数据显示，Bavarian Nordic的疫苗 <strong class="text-white">Vimkunya 已在欧美获批</strong>，计划2025年上市。全球终局解决方案已出现，国内市场炒作忽略了这一颠覆性因素。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 border border-gray-500/30 rounded-lg bg-gray-500/5">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-gray-300 text-lg">“疫情严峻”认知 vs. “低重症”现实</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-400">数千病例给市场造成“严重”印象，但所有信息源均强调<strong class="text-white">“均为轻症，无重症和死亡”</strong>。这决定了对医疗系统的实际冲击有限，政府和社会投入的资源规模将是有限的。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Industry Chain -->
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<div class="grid-item col-span-12 glass-card p-6">
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<h2 class="section-header">产业链图谱</h2>
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<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row items-center justify-between space-y-4 md:space-y-0 md:space-x-4 text-center">
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<div class="p-4 rounded-lg border border-gray-700 w-full md:w-1/3">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-bold glow-text">上游: 原料供应</h3>
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<p class="text-sm">化工原料 (拟除虫菊酯)</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-500">扬农化工、广康生化</p>
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<p class="text-sm">诊断原料 (抗原/抗体)</p>
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</div>
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<div class="text-cyan-400 text-2xl font-mono">>>></div>
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<div class="p-4 rounded-lg border border-cyan-700 w-full md:w-1/3 bg-cyan-900/20">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-cyan-300">中游: 产品制造/服务</h3>
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<p class="text-sm">预防产品 (润本股份、上海家化)</p>
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<p class="text-sm">诊断产品 (达安基因、万孚生物)</p>
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<p class="text-sm">防控服务 (玉禾田)</p>
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</div>
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<div class="text-purple-400 text-2xl font-mono">>>></div>
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<div class="p-4 rounded-lg border border-gray-700 w-full md:w-1/3">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-bold glow-text">下游: 应用与销售</h3>
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<p class="text-sm">To C: 终端消费者</p>
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<p class="text-sm">To B: 医疗机构</p>
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<p class="text-sm">To G: 疾控中心/政府</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Catalysts & Risks -->
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<div class="grid-item col-span-6 glass-card p-6">
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<h2 class="section-header text-green-400">近期催化剂</h2>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-400">
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<li><strong class="text-green-300">疫情二次爆发或向新省份扩散：</strong>驱动概念持续的最强催化剂。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-green-300">政府大规模集采公告：</strong>地方政府发布杀虫剂、检测试剂盒订单，是验证需求的直接证据。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-green-300">龙头公司业绩验证：</strong>核心公司Q3财报若超预期增长，将提供基本面支撑。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="grid-item col-span-6 glass-card p-6">
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<h2 class="section-header text-red-400">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-400">
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<li><strong class="text-red-300">商业化风险 (核心)：</strong>疫情具强季节性，秋冬季需求将断崖式下跌；市场空间天花板低。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-red-300">政策与竞争风险：</strong>强力防控措施可能迅速控制疫情，缩短需求周期；检测领域易引发价格战。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-red-300">信息交叉验证风险：</strong>国内“无疫苗”紧迫感与海外“疫苗将上市”现实的冲突，是最大潜在风险。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<!-- Rise Analysis -->
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<div class="grid-item col-span-12 glass-card p-6">
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<h2 class="section-header">市场情绪与涨幅分析</h2>
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<p class="mb-6 text-gray-400">疫情爆发后，市场情绪迅速发酵，资金在寻求任何可能沾边的标的进行扩散。以下为部分代表性个股在特定日期的异动分析，揭示了市场情绪的传导路径。</p>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-4">
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<!-- Hot景生物 -->
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<div class="p-4 rounded-lg border border-gray-700/50 bg-base-100/30">
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<div class="flex justify-between items-center">
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<p class="font-bold text-lg text-white">热景生物 (688068)</p>
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<span class="badge badge-error badge-outline">+6.88% (2025-07-28)</span>
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</div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-2">核心驱动为疫情爆发带来的检测需求预期。公司快速研发出抗体检测试剂盒（胶体金法），叠加创新药板块联动效应，受资金追捧。</p>
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</div>
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<!-- 新农股份 -->
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<div class="p-4 rounded-lg border border-gray-700/50 bg-base-100/30">
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<div class="flex justify-between items-center">
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<p class="font-bold text-lg text-white">新农股份 (002942)</p>
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<span class="badge badge-error badge-outline">+10.03% (2025-07-28)</span>
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</div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-2">业绩兑现确定性高。其“吡虫啉类微胶囊悬浮剂”是政府应急采购首选剂型，已获1200万元订单，业绩逻辑清晰。</p>
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</div>
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<!-- 润本股份 -->
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<div class="p-4 rounded-lg border border-gray-700/50 bg-base-100/30">
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<div class="flex justify-between items-center">
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<p class="font-bold text-lg text-white">润本股份 (603193)</p>
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<span class="badge badge-error badge-outline">+5.74% (2025-07-24)</span>
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</div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-2">逻辑最纯粹的预防龙头，作为“婴童驱蚊国货龙头”，能最快捕捉C端需求爆发，直接受益于疫情。</p>
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</div>
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<!-- 玉禾田 -->
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<div class="p-4 rounded-lg border border-gray-700/50 bg-base-100/30">
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<div class="flex justify-between items-center">
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<p class="font-bold text-lg text-white">玉禾田 (300815)</p>
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<span class="badge badge-error badge-outline">+5.28% (2025-07-28)</span>
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</div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-2">直接受益于消杀需求。作为专业环卫服务商，在广东地区有深厚业务基础，疫情爆发直接催生其环境消杀业务订单。</p>
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</div>
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<!-- 雅运股份 -->
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<div class="p-4 rounded-lg border border-gray-700/50 bg-base-100/30">
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<div class="flex justify-between items-center">
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<p class="font-bold text-lg text-white">雅运股份 (603790)</p>
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<span class="badge badge-warning badge-outline">+5.39% (2025-08-04)</span>
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</div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-2">情绪炒作代表。主营染料，与疫情无直接关联，其上涨纯属资金炒作和概念扩散，证伪了“所有化工股都受益”的逻辑。</p>
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</div>
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<!-- 佛慈制药 -->
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<div class="p-4 rounded-lg border border-gray-700/50 bg-base-100/30">
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<div class="flex justify-between items-center">
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<p class="font-bold text-lg text-white">佛慈制药 (002644)</p>
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<span class="badge badge-warning badge-outline">+9.98% (2025-07-29)</span>
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</div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-2">多重概念叠加。上涨逻辑是“育儿补贴+国资改革”，基孔肯雅热只是点燃医药板块情绪的火花之一，逻辑验证困难。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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|
||
<!-- Stocks Table -->
|
||
<div class="grid-item col-span-12 glass-card p-6" x-data="{ filter: 'all' }">
|
||
<h2 class="section-header">相关概念股梳理</h2>
|
||
|
||
<div class="tabs tabs-boxed bg-black/20 mb-4">
|
||
<a class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': filter === 'all' }" @click="filter = 'all'">全部</a>
|
||
<a class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': filter === '驱蚊产品' }" @click="filter = '驱蚊产品'">驱蚊产品</a>
|
||
<a class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': filter === '灭杀剂' }" @click="filter = '灭杀剂'">灭杀剂</a>
|
||
<a class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': filter === '检测试剂' }" @click="filter = '检测试剂'">检测试剂</a>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑</th>
|
||
<th class="text-center">标签</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<!-- Data will be populated here by AlpineJS -->
|
||
<template x-for="stock in stocks.filter(s => filter === 'all' || s.tag === filter)">
|
||
<tr class="hover">
|
||
<td class="font-bold text-white">
|
||
<div x-text="stock.name"></div>
|
||
<template x-if="stock.code">
|
||
<a :href="'https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=' + stock.code" target="_blank" class="text-xs text-gray-500 hover:text-cyan-400" x-text="stock.code"></a>
|
||
</template>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td x-text="stock.reason"></td>
|
||
<td class="text-center">
|
||
<span class="badge"
|
||
:class="{
|
||
'badge-info': stock.tag === '驱蚊产品',
|
||
'badge-warning': stock.tag === '灭杀剂',
|
||
'badge-success': stock.tag === '检测试剂'
|
||
}"
|
||
x-text="stock.tag"></span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</template>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Footer -->
|
||
<footer class="text-center mt-12 py-6 border-t border-gray-800">
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-500">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现</p>
|
||
<p class="text-xs text-gray-600 mt-1">本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。</p>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
// ECharts instance
|
||
var myChart = echarts.init(document.getElementById('epidemicChart'));
|
||
var option = {
|
||
backgroundColor: 'transparent',
|
||
tooltip: {
|
||
trigger: 'axis',
|
||
backgroundColor: 'rgba(30, 30, 42, 0.8)',
|
||
borderColor: '#555',
|
||
textStyle: { color: '#eee' }
|
||
},
|
||
grid: { left: '3%', right: '4%', bottom: '3%', containLabel: true },
|
||
xAxis: {
|
||
type: 'category',
|
||
boundaryGap: false,
|
||
data: ['7月22日', '7月24日', '8月2日', '8月6日', '8月14日', '8月21日', '8月28日', '9月20日', '9月27日'],
|
||
axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: 'rgba(255,255,255,0.3)' } },
|
||
axisLabel: { color: '#ccc' }
|
||
},
|
||
yAxis: {
|
||
type: 'value',
|
||
axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: 'rgba(255,255,255,0.3)' } },
|
||
splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: 'rgba(255,255,255,0.1)' } },
|
||
axisLabel: { color: '#ccc' }
|
||
},
|
||
series: [
|
||
{
|
||
name: '佛山累计病例',
|
||
type: 'line',
|
||
smooth: true,
|
||
data: [3195, 4000, 5635, 6340, 6940, 7120, 7220, null, null],
|
||
itemStyle: { color: '#8e44ad' },
|
||
lineStyle: { width: 3, shadowColor: 'rgba(142, 68, 173, 0.5)', shadowBlur: 10 },
|
||
areaStyle: {
|
||
color: new echarts.graphic.LinearGradient(0, 0, 0, 1, [{
|
||
offset: 0,
|
||
color: 'rgba(142, 68, 173, 0.5)'
|
||
}, {
|
||
offset: 1,
|
||
color: 'rgba(142, 68, 173, 0)'
|
||
}])
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
name: '广东周增病例',
|
||
type: 'line',
|
||
smooth: true,
|
||
data: [null, null, null, null, 830, null, null, 2426, 3153],
|
||
itemStyle: { color: '#00f2ff' },
|
||
lineStyle: { width: 3, shadowColor: 'rgba(0, 242, 255, 0.5)', shadowBlur: 10 },
|
||
areaStyle: {
|
||
color: new echarts.graphic.LinearGradient(0, 0, 0, 1, [{
|
||
offset: 0,
|
||
color: 'rgba(0, 242, 255, 0.5)'
|
||
}, {
|
||
offset: 1,
|
||
color: 'rgba(0, 242, 255, 0)'
|
||
}])
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
legend: {
|
||
data: ['佛山累计病例', '广东周增病例'],
|
||
textStyle: { color: '#ccc' }
|
||
},
|
||
};
|
||
myChart.setOption(option);
|
||
window.addEventListener('resize', () => myChart.resize());
|
||
|
||
// AlpineJS Data
|
||
document.addEventListener('alpine:init', () => {
|
||
Alpine.data('stocks', () => ({
|
||
stocks: [
|
||
{ name: '润本生物', code: null, reason: '2024年驱蚊系列产品营收4.39亿，A股第一', tag: '驱蚊产品' },
|
||
{ name: '彩虹集团', code: '003023', reason: '2024年家用卫生杀虫用品系列营收4.49亿，A股第一，产品包括驱蚊液、贴、夹等', tag: '驱蚊产品' },
|
||
{ name: '上海家化', code: '600315', reason: '六神牌花露水防蚊等防蚊液，市场份额高', tag: '驱蚊产品' },
|
||
{ name: '嘉亨家化', code: '300955', reason: '全资子公司已取得生产范围为驱蚊液、驱蚊花露水的《农药生产许可证》', tag: '驱蚊产品' },
|
||
{ name: '康芝药业', code: '300086', reason: '目前爱护生产、销售的主要产品包括驱蚊液、薄荷膏等', tag: '驱蚊产品' },
|
||
{ name: '国星光电', code: '002449', reason: '公司高密度高光效紫外系列LED芯片主要应用于驱蚊、医美领域', tag: '驱蚊产品' },
|
||
{ name: '金海高科', code: '603311', reason: '专注功能性过滤网及各类过滤器(病毒杀灭、驱蚊驱蝇等)的制造商', tag: '驱蚊产品' },
|
||
{ name: '小崧股份', code: '002723', reason: '公司研发生产的户外照明产品增加护眼、驱蚊等功能', tag: '驱蚊产品' },
|
||
{ name: '贝因美', code: '002570', reason: '正在拓展品牌授权业务，尝试扩展品类驱蚊液销售', tag: '驱蚊产品' },
|
||
{ name: '三夫户外', code: '002780', reason: '三夫户外综合店有驱蚊虫相关产品销售', tag: '驱蚊产品' },
|
||
{ name: '扬农化工', code: '600486', reason: '全球最大的拟除虫菊酯原药供应商，核心品种拟除虫菊酯产品品种数量居全球第一', tag: '灭杀剂' },
|
||
{ name: '广康生化', code: '300804', reason: '是拟除虫菊酯类杀虫剂的主要供应商之一', tag: '灭杀剂' },
|
||
{ name: '红太阳', code: '000525', reason: '菊酯类的拟除虫菊酯杀虫剂市占率约5%', tag: '灭杀剂' },
|
||
{ name: '达安基因', code: '002030', reason: '旗下子公司已研制推出“基孔肯雅病毒核酸检测试剂盒(PCR-荧光探针法)”', tag: '检测试剂' },
|
||
{ name: '万孚生物', code: '300482', reason: '具备虫媒病毒检测能力，适合基层现场快速初筛', tag: '检测试剂' },
|
||
{ name: '仁度生物', code: '688193', reason: '公司已有蚊传虫媒病毒系列检测试剂，包括基孔肯雅病毒、登革病毒、寨卡病毒', tag: '检测试剂' },
|
||
{ name: '明德生物', code: '002932', reason: '聚焦感染领域，推出基孔肯雅、登革病毒等虫媒传播病原体核酸检测试剂盒', tag: '检测试剂' },
|
||
{ name: '透景生命', code: '300642', reason: '试剂盒可用于登革病毒、寨卡病毒、基孔肯雅病毒感染的筛查或者鉴别诊断', tag: '检测试剂' },
|
||
{ name: '博拓生物', code: '688767', reason: '基孔肯雅热检测试剂产品已经上市', tag: '检测试剂' },
|
||
{ name: '易瑞生物', code: '300942', reason: '位于广东地区，拥有基孔肯雅热病毒核酸检测试剂相关业务', tag: '检测试剂' },
|
||
{ name: '金域医学', code: '603882', reason: '整合多个技术平台，在感染性疾病相关诊断方面可提供超450项检测', tag: '检测试剂' },
|
||
{ name: '硕世生物', code: '688399', reason: '推出登革热抗原抗体与PCR系列检测产品，并已成功获得CE备案证书', tag: '检测试剂' }
|
||
]
|
||
}));
|
||
});
|
||
</script>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html> |