545 lines
36 KiB
HTML
545 lines
36 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>反内卷造纸 - 深度概念分析 | 价小前投研</title>
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<!-- Tailwind CSS & DaisyUI -->
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.10.1/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com/3.4.3"></script>
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<!-- Alpine.js -->
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<script defer src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js"></script>
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<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com">
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<style>
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:root {
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--glow-color-1: rgba(0, 255, 255, 0.3);
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--glow-color-2: rgba(255, 0, 255, 0.3);
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}
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body {
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font-family: 'Roboto Mono', 'Oxanium', sans-serif;
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background-color: #010413;
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color: #E0E0E0;
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overflow-x: hidden;
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position: relative;
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}
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background: rgba(10, 15, 40, 0.5);
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backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
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-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
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border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
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border-radius: 2rem; /* 极致圆角 */
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box-shadow: 0 8px 32px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.37);
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transition: all 0.3s ease-in-out;
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}
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transform: translateY(-5px);
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box-shadow: 0 12px 40px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5);
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}
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position: fixed;
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left: 0;
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width: 100vw;
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height: 100vh;
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z-index: -1;
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background: #010413;
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}
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.glow-background::before, .glow-background::after {
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content: '';
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position: absolute;
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width: 800px;
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height: 800px;
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border-radius: 50%;
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filter: blur(150px);
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opacity: 0.4;
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animation: move-glow 25s infinite alternate;
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}
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background: var(--glow-color-1);
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animation-delay: -12.5s;
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@keyframes move-glow {
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0% { transform: translate(0, 0) rotate(0deg); }
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100% { transform: translate(30vw, 30vh) rotate(180deg); }
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}
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.bento-grid {
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display: grid;
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gap: 1.5rem;
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grid-template-columns: repeat(12, 1fr);
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}
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.bento-item {
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grid-column: span 12;
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}
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@media (min-width: 1024px) {
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.bento-item-1 { grid-column: span 8; grid-row: span 2; }
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.bento-item-2 { grid-column: span 4; }
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.bento-item-3 { grid-column: span 4; }
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.bento-item-4 { grid-column: span 6; }
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}
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.section-title {
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font-size: 2.5rem;
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font-weight: 700;
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color: #ffffff;
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text-align: center;
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margin-bottom: 2rem;
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position: relative;
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padding-bottom: 1rem;
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}
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.section-title::after {
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content: '';
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position: absolute;
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bottom: 0;
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left: 50%;
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transform: translateX(-50%);
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width: 100px;
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height: 3px;
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background: linear-gradient(90deg, transparent, var(--glow-color-1), transparent);
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}
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.table thead th {
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background-color: rgba(0, 255, 255, 0.1);
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color: #00ffff;
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font-size: 0.9rem;
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font-weight: bold;
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}
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.table tbody tr:hover {
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background-color: rgba(138, 43, 226, 0.2);
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}
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.disclaimer {
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font-family: 'Roboto Mono', monospace;
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font-size: 0.75rem;
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text-align: center;
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padding: 1rem 0;
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color: #888;
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border-top: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
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margin-top: 3rem;
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="antialiased min-h-screen">
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<div class="glow-background"></div>
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8 space-y-16">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center py-8">
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<h1 class="text-5xl md:text-7xl font-bold text-transparent bg-clip-text bg-gradient-to-r from-cyan-400 to-fuchsia-500 animate-pulse">
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反内卷造纸
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</h1>
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<p class="text-slate-400 mt-4 text-lg">深度概念分析报告</p>
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<div class="mt-4 text-xs text-slate-500">
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<p>北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现</p>
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</div>
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</header>
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<!-- Bento Grid Section -->
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<section class="bento-grid">
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-1 glass-card p-8 flex flex-col justify-between">
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-4">核心观点摘要</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300 leading-relaxed">
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“反内卷造纸”概念的本质是在政策引导下的供给侧出清与价值重塑运动。其核心驱动力源于行业自身已无法忍受的长期亏损与顶层设计对“低价无序竞争”的治理决心。当前，概念正从“预期博弈”的倡议阶段，迈向“政策落地”的实质验证阶段，未来潜力取决于落后产能出清的实际力度与龙头企业协同的持续性。
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</p>
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</div>
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<div class="mt-6 border-t border-cyan-500/20 pt-4">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-cyan-400">核心驱动力：</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-slate-400 mt-2">“政策底”+“市场底”共振，驱动行业供给出清，从而修复盈利。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-2 glass-card p-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-4">行业困境指标</h3>
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<div class="stats stats-vertical bg-transparent text-slate-200 w-full">
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<div class="stat">
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<div class="stat-title text-slate-400">包装纸产能</div>
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<div class="stat-value text-fuchsia-400">~1.5-2x</div>
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<div class="stat-desc text-slate-500">倍于需求</div>
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</div>
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<div class="stat">
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<div class="stat-title text-slate-400">行业开工率</div>
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<div class="stat-value text-fuchsia-400">~60%</div>
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<div class="stat-desc text-slate-500">较峰值下降~30%</div>
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</div>
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<div class="stat">
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<div class="stat-title text-slate-400">主流纸价</div>
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<div class="stat-value text-fuchsia-400">5%</div>
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<div class="stat-desc text-slate-500">近9年历史分位</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-3 glass-card p-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-4">核心驱动力</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-slate-300">
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 text-cyan-400 mr-2 flex-shrink-0 mt-1" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.707-9.293a1 1 0 00-1.414-1.414L9 10.586 7.707 9.293a1 1 0 00-1.414 1.414l2 2a1 1 0 001.414 0l4-4z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
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<span><strong class="text-white">政策驱动:</strong> 顶层设计治理低价竞争，通过环保、能耗标准市场化淘汰。</span>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 text-cyan-400 mr-2 flex-shrink-0 mt-1" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.707-9.293a1 1 0 00-1.414-1.414L9 10.586 7.707 9.293a1 1 0 00-1.414 1.414l2 2a1 1 0 001.414 0l4-4z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
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<span><strong class="text-white">行业自律:</strong> 长期亏损后的自救行为，以广东协会“反内卷”倡议为标志。</span>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 text-cyan-400 mr-2 flex-shrink-0 mt-1" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.707-9.293a1 1 0 00-1.414-1.414L9 10.586 7.707 9.293a1 1 0 00-1.414 1.414l2 2a1 1 0 001.414 0l4-4z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
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<span><strong class="text-white">周期拐点:</strong> 2026年后新增产能明确放缓，为长期改善奠定基础。</span>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-4 glass-card p-6 col-span-12 lg:col-span-12">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-4">概念发展时间轴</h3>
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<div id="timeline-chart" class="w-full h-64"></div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Deep Dive Section -->
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<section class="space-y-8">
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<h2 class="section-title">深度逻辑与预期差分析</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
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<div class="glass-card p-8">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-4">市场热度与情绪</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300 leading-relaxed">
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市场热度极高，情绪整体乐观。新闻数据中“造纸板块继续上涨”、“形成板块行情”表明市场已迅速给予正反馈。研报密集发布，普遍看好行业底部反转。路演交流频繁，表明机构投资者高度关注。市场主流情绪是对标2016-2017年的供给侧改革，期待盈利的大幅修复。
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</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-8">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold text-fuchsia-400 mb-4">核心预期差分析</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-4 text-slate-300">
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<li><strong class="text-white">1. 政策力度预期差:</strong> 市场普遍高估当前“倡议/座谈”阶段的强制性，而低估了<span class="text-yellow-400 font-bold">2025年5月</span>新能耗国标作为首个“硬约束”的重要性。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">2. 产能出清速度预期差:</strong> 市场预期落后产能快速退出，但路演数据揭示小厂因经营弹性及低成本支撑，出清进度可能<span class="text-yellow-400 font-bold">慢于预期</span>。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">3. 协同提价效果预期差:</strong> 市场看到涨价函便认为行业反转，但实际上包装纸协同效果较好，而产能过剩更严重的<span class="text-yellow-400 font-bold">双胶/白卡纸尚未出现明显协同</span>。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Catalysts & Future Path Section -->
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<section>
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<h2 class="section-title">关键催化剂与发展路径</h2>
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<div class="glass-card p-8">
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<ul class="timeline timeline-snap-icon max-md:timeline-compact timeline-vertical">
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<li>
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<div class="timeline-middle">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-cyan-400"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.707-9.293a1 1 0 00-1.414-1.414L9 10.586 7.707 9.293a1 1 0 00-1.414 1.414l2 2a1 1 0 001.414 0l4-4z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-start md:text-end mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic text-slate-400">当前 - 2025年中</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black text-white">第一阶段: 预期驱动与分化修复期</div>
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以行业倡议和龙头协同提价为主，部分供需格局较好的纸种（如包装纸）率先实现盈利修复。市场主要交易“反转预期”。
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</div>
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<hr class="bg-cyan-400"/>
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</li>
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<li>
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<hr class="bg-cyan-400"/>
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<div class="timeline-middle">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-yellow-400 animate-spin"><path d="M10 3.5a1.5 1.5 0 013 0V4a1 1 0 001 1h3a1 1 0 011 1v3a1 1 0 01-1 1h-1.268a1.75 1.75 0 00-1.732 1.732l-.006.006a1.75 1.75 0 001.732 1.732H16a1 1 0 011 1v3a1 1 0 01-1 1h-3a1 1 0 01-1-1v-.5a1.5 1.5 0 00-3 0v.5a1 1 0 01-1 1H6a1 1 0 01-1-1v-3a1 1 0 011-1h1.268a1.75 1.75 0 001.732-1.732l.006-.006a1.75 1.75 0 00-1.732-1.732H4a1 1 0 01-1-1V8a1 1 0 011-1h3a1 1 0 001-1v-.5a1.5 1.5 0 013 0z" /></svg>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-end mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic text-slate-400">2025年5月 (关键节点)</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black text-white">最关键验证点：新版能耗国标实施</div>
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这是概念从“软倡议”走向“硬约束”的转折点。市场将密切关注政策执行力度及实际淘汰的落后产能规模。
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</div>
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<hr class="bg-cyan-400"/>
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</li>
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<li>
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<hr class="bg-cyan-400"/>
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<div class="timeline-middle">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-cyan-400"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.707-9.293a1 1 0 00-1.414-1.414L9 10.586 7.707 9.293a1 1 0 00-1.414 1.414l2 2a1 1 0 001.414 0l4-4z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-start md:text-end mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic text-slate-400">2025年中 - 2026年</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black text-white">第二阶段: 政策强制出清期</div>
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能耗国标等政策落地，强制淘汰落后产能，行业供给端出现实质性收缩，龙头企业市占率提升。行情由基本面驱动。
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</div>
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<hr class="bg-cyan-400"/>
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</li>
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<li>
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<hr class="bg-cyan-400"/>
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<div class="timeline-middle">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-cyan-400"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.707-9.293a1 1 0 00-1.414-1.414L9 10.586 7.707 9.293a1 1 0 00-1.414 1.414l2 2a1 1 0 001.414 0l4-4z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-end">
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<time class="font-mono italic text-slate-400">2026年后</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black text-white">第三阶段: 新稳态与价值竞争期</div>
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行业摆脱恶性价格战，竞争焦点转向成本优势、产品研发与国际市场拓展，龙头企业迎来稳定的盈利中枢。
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</div>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Industry Chain & Key Players -->
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<section>
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<h2 class="section-title">产业链与核心公司剖析</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-8">
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<!-- 太阳纸业 -->
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<div class="glass-card p-6 flex flex-col">
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<div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline mb-2">领导者 & 逻辑最纯粹</div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-white">太阳纸业 (002078)</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-slate-400 mt-2 flex-grow">研报和新闻均强调其 “林浆纸一体化” 优势，在原料成本控制上具备明确壁垒。路演数据也印证其“龙头盈利底线增厚（2025年底线利润35亿元+）”。</p>
|
||
<div class="mt-4 pt-4 border-t border-slate-700">
|
||
<p class="text-fuchsia-400 text-sm font-bold">风险点: 业绩弹性可能不如困境反转型公司。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<!-- 弹性追赶者 -->
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-6 flex flex-col">
|
||
<div class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline mb-2">弹性追赶者</div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-white">玖龙纸业 / 山鹰国际 / 博汇纸业</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400 mt-2 flex-grow">体量巨大，是各自细分领域的龙头。在行业上行周期中，其规模效应会带来巨大的盈利弹性。新闻中提到“周期高点预计翻倍”，指的就是这类公司。</p>
|
||
<div class="mt-4 pt-4 border-t border-slate-700">
|
||
<p class="text-fuchsia-400 text-sm font-bold">风险点 (博汇): 所在白卡纸领域协同提价滞后，过剩严重(20-30%)，反转不确定性更高。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<!-- 稳健细分龙头 -->
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-6 flex flex-col">
|
||
<div class="badge badge-accent badge-outline mb-2">稳健细分龙头</div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-white">仙鹤股份 / 华旺科技</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400 mt-2 flex-grow">聚焦特种纸赛道，下游需求相对细分、稳健，受大宗商品周期性波动影响较小。业绩稳定性显著优于大宗纸企，华旺科技还具备“高股息”标签。</p>
|
||
<div class="mt-4 pt-4 border-t border-slate-700">
|
||
<p class="text-fuchsia-400 text-sm font-bold">风险点: 行业整体上行时，其业绩弹性可能弱于大宗纸企。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Risks & Challenges -->
|
||
<section>
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-8 space-y-6">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-red-400 mb-2">政策与竞争风险（核心风险）</h3>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside text-slate-300 space-y-1">
|
||
<li><strong class="text-red-300">政策执行不及预期:</strong> 若2025年5月的能耗国标执行不严，或地方保护主义抬头，“反内卷”逻辑将被证伪。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-red-300">龙头协同破裂:</strong> 在需求疲软下，任何一家龙头为保份额而率先降价，都可能引发新一轮价格战。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-yellow-400 mb-2">信息交叉验证风险（已发现的矛盾点）</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-300 leading-relaxed">
|
||
新闻/研报的乐观图景与一线路演的冷静数据存在<strong class="text-yellow-300">“温差”</strong>。路演反复强调政策的“非强制性”、小厂出清的“缓慢”及价格修复的“不均衡”。这种温差表明，市场情绪可能已部分透支未来的利好，需警惕“预期兑现即利空”的风险。研报乐观认为“中小产能逐步出清”，但路演管理人则认为小厂“难以完全出清”，揭示了行业出清路径的复杂性和长期性。
|
||
</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Source Data Deep Dive -->
|
||
<section x-data="{ tab: 'news' }">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">源数据摘要</h2>
|
||
<div class="tabs tabs-boxed justify-center bg-black/30 mb-8">
|
||
<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'news' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'news'">新闻数据</a>
|
||
<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'roadshow' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'roadshow'">路演纪要</a>
|
||
<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'research' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'research'">研报精粹</a>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-8 min-h-[300px]">
|
||
<div x-show="tab === 'news'">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-4">新闻数据核心摘要</h3>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-slate-300">
|
||
<li><strong>首封“反内卷”倡议书:</strong> 广东省造纸行业协会发布，核心是抵制低价无序竞争和盲目产能扩张，倡导自主合理定价与技术升级。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>市场积极反响:</strong> 资本市场迅速反应，推动造纸板块形成板块行情。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>行业背景:</strong> 造纸是近年供给持续过剩的行业，有望受益于全行业“反内卷”大方向。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>基本面信号:</strong> 纸、浆价格均有明显磨底信号，新产能扩张预计自2026年起明确放缓。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>宏观定义:</strong> “反内卷”重在“依法依规整治企业低价无序竞争”，而非简单的供给侧改革。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div x-show="tab === 'roadshow'" x-cloak>
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-4">路演纪要核心摘要</h3>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-slate-300">
|
||
<li><strong>政策抓手明确:</strong> 2025年5月实施的新版强制国标（吨纸能耗限额）被视为淘汰落后产能的关键政策工具。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>龙头协同分化:</strong> 包装纸（玖龙、山鹰）协同提价进展顺利，但双胶/白卡纸尚未出现明显协同。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>出清进度缓慢:</strong> 管理层观点指出，小厂因经营弹性高（灵活开关机）及低价浆支撑，难以完全、快速出清。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>当前阶段定性:</strong> 反内卷仍处于“倡议/协会座谈”阶段，尚无强制性约束，政策落地时点与力度不确定。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>产能过剩严重:</strong> 供需失衡严重，白卡/双胶纸过剩20%-30%，行业大面积亏损，仅龙头微利。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div x-show="tab === 'research'" x-cloak>
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-4">研报精粹核心摘要</h3>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-slate-300">
|
||
<li><strong>行情阶段演进:</strong> 行情已从"预期反内卷"（博弈困境反转）阶段演进至"实质反内卷"（定价实际改善）阶段。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>供需严重失衡:</strong> 包装纸行业产能近乎为需求的1.5-2倍，行业开工率降至60%左右，社会库存处在历史最高位。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>环保政策驱动:</strong> 复盘历史，环保政策是推动供给端出清的重要因素；新版国标能耗限制或催化新一轮出清。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>产业升级趋势:</strong> 产品结构向高端化（特种纸、生活用纸）升级，龙头企业通过林浆纸一体化增强竞争力。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>投资逻辑:</strong> 建议关注林浆纸一体化龙头（太阳纸业）、细分赛道优势企业（仙鹤股份）及具备向上弹性的困境反转企业（博汇纸业、玖龙纸业）。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Rise Analysis Section -->
|
||
<section>
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">相关个股异动分析</h2>
|
||
<div class="space-y-6">
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="rise-accordion" checked="checked" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-cyan-300">
|
||
华软科技 (002453) - 涨停原因分析
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<p class="text-slate-300">核心结论: 11月12日涨停系“造纸+化工”双热点叠加下的游资短炒，无新增基本面催化。驱动概念为造纸涨价+化工反内卷+退税预期。华软科技60%收入来自AKD施胶剂，直接受益纸价上涨带来的补库需求，同时受益于化工行业“反内卷”减产潮带来的精细化工品涨价情绪外溢。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="rise-accordion" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-cyan-300">
|
||
申通快递 (002468) - 涨停原因分析
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<p class="text-slate-300">核心结论: 政策“反内卷”抬升盈利+阿里系并购整合双重催化，定价行业拐点。国家邮政局明确反对“内卷式”竞争，广东、义乌等地已要求提价，对单票净利极低的申通业绩弹性巨大。同时，网传最低派费红线和阿里行权及并购预期，共同推动股价。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<!-- Add more analysis cards if needed -->
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Table Section -->
|
||
<section>
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">核心概念股列表</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card p-4">
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑</th>
|
||
<th>细分领域</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>太阳纸业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002078" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002078</a></td><td>2024年底公司合计产能已突破1200万吨，其中浆、纸产能分别合计达500万吨和729万吨</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">纸浆</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>山鹰国际</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600567" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600567</a></td><td>公司是国内箱板纸龙头，2024年箱板纸108.57亿</td><td><div class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">箱板纸</div> <div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">纸浆</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>博汇纸业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600966" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600966</a></td><td>国内白卡纸龙头；2024年白纸板115.42亿；浆纸一体化的行业领军企业</td><td><div class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">白卡纸</div> <div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">纸浆</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>仙鹤股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603733" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">603733</a></td><td>夏王纸业（合营公司）为全球装饰原纸行业公认的高端领导品牌；2024年食品与医疗包装材料系列18.59亿</td><td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">装饰原纸</div> <div class="badge badge-warning badge-outline">包装纸</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>华旺科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=605377" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">605377</a></td><td>2024年装饰原纸28.95亿</td><td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">装饰原纸</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>中顺洁柔</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002511" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002511</a></td><td>2024年生活用纸80.42亿</td><td><div class="badge badge-success badge-outline">生活纸</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>玖龙纸业</td><td>港股</td><td>截至2025年上半年公司纸/浆总产能将分别为2537万吨/819万吨</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">纸浆</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>ST晨鸣</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000488" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000488</a></td><td>木浆产能达430万吨；2024年白卡纸45.53亿</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">纸浆</div> <div class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">白卡纸</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>宜宾纸业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600793" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600793</a></td><td>竹浆造纸产业领域的一体化龙头企业</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">纸浆</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>岳阳林纸</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600963" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600963</a></td><td>2024年收购骏泰科技100%股权，新增商品浆产能40万吨/年</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">纸浆</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>青山纸业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600103" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600103</a></td><td>竹溶解浆为国内首创唯一以毛竹为原料的溶解浆产品</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">纸浆</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>五洲特纸</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=605007" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">605007</a></td><td>2024年食品包装31.50亿；日用消费24.48亿</td><td><div class="badge badge-warning badge-outline">包装纸</div> <div class="badge badge-success badge-outline">日用消费</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>恒丰纸业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600356" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600356</a></td><td>2024年烟草工业用纸18.72亿</td><td><div class="badge badge-error badge-outline">卷烟纸</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>富淼科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688350" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">688350</a></td><td>公司生产的制浆造纸化学品可以帮助客户减少原辅材料的流失</td><td><div class="badge badge-ghost badge-outline">设备耗材</div></td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
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<!-- Footer -->
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<footer class="disclaimer">
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<p>北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现。</p>
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<p>本报告为AI合成数据，不构成任何投资建议，投资需谨慎。</p>
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{ value: 5, name: '未来节点', detail: '2025-05: 新能耗国标实施；2026+: 新增产能放缓。' }
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