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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<title>深度行研 | 太空算力</title>
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</head>
<body class="min-h-screen text-gray-300 antialiased">
<div class="container mx-auto p-4 sm:p-6 lg:p-8">
<!-- Header -->
<header class="text-center mb-12">
<h1 class="fui-title text-5xl md:text-7xl font-bold text-white mb-4 tracking-wider">
太 空 算 力
</h1>
<p class="text-lg text-info">
北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent“价小前投研” 呈现
</p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-500 mt-1">本报告为AI合成数据投资需谨慎。</p>
</header>
<!-- Main Content -->
<main class="space-y-12">
<!-- Core Insight Section -->
<section id="insight">
<div class="bento-grid">
<!-- Core View Summary -->
<div class="bento-item bento-item-1 fui-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="fui-title text-2xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-4">核心观点摘要</h2>
<p class="text-base leading-relaxed">
太空算力是为应对AI时代下地面算力面临的<strong class="text-yellow-300">能源、散热、部署</strong>三重根本性瓶颈而生的颠覆性解决方案。当前,该概念已凭借全球首个在轨计算星座的成功组网,走出了纯粹的理论构想阶段,进入了<strong class="text-green-300">工程验证与早期商业化探索的关键时期</strong>。其核心驱动力源于AI对算力需求的指数级增长与物理世界有限资源的根本矛盾未来潜力在于构建一个与地面互补、甚至在特定场景下超越地面的全新算力基础设施市场空间有望达到<strong class="text-purple-300">万亿级别</strong>
</p>
</div>
<!-- Core Logic & Market Perception -->
<div class="bento-item bento-item-2 fui-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="fui-title text-2xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-4">核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h2>
<div class="space-y-4">
<div>
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-white mb-2">双轮驱动:需求牵引与供给创新</h3>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-sm">
<li><strong class="text-yellow-400">需求牵引 (Why Space?):</strong> 地面AI算力遭遇“不可能三角”——<strong class="text-red-400">能源枯竭</strong>(电网扩容线性 vs 算力需求指数级)、<strong class="text-red-400">散热极限</strong>PUE逼近1.2物理极限)、<strong class="text-red-400">部署瓶颈</strong>(土地、环评等)。</li>
<li><strong class="text-green-400">供给创新 (Why Now?):</strong> 太空提供完美解决方案——<strong class="text-green-400">能源优势</strong>太阳能效率5-8倍<strong class="text-green-400">散热优势</strong>-270℃天然热沉PUE趋近1<strong class="text-green-400">效率优势</strong>(在轨处理,响应速度从天/周级缩至秒级)。可回收火箭技术正推动发射成本走向商业化拐点。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<hr class="glow-divider my-4">
<div>
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-white mb-2">市场热度与预期差分析</h3>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-sm">
<li><strong class="text-blue-300">市场情绪:</strong> 高度关注,极为乐观,新闻、研报、路演密集轰炸,已形成强大板块号召力。</li>
<li><strong class="text-orange-300">潜在预期差 ① (规模与时间):</strong> 市场可能高估短期内实现百万卡级别万POPS算力的速度当前仍在POPS级验证阶段。</li>
<li><strong class="text-orange-300">潜在预期差 ② (关键瓶颈):</strong><strong class="text-red-400">发射成本</strong><strong class="text-red-400">Tbps级星间通信</strong>两大基础瓶颈的认知可能不足。</li>
<li><strong class="text-orange-300">潜在预期差 ③ (商业模式):</strong> "地数天算"场景下与地面算力的成本效益对比曲线尚不清晰。</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Catalysts & Future Path -->
<div class="bento-item bento-item-3 fui-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 flex flex-col">
<h2 class="fui-title text-2xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-4">关键催化剂与发展路径</h2>
<div class="space-y-4 text-sm flex-grow">
<h3 class="font-semibold text-white">近期催化剂 (未来3-12个月)</h3>
<ul class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-1">
<li>北京“辰光一号”试验星发射 (2025年底-2026年初)</li>
<li>“三体计算星座”规模扩展至超50颗</li>
<li>朱雀三号等可回收火箭首飞进展</li>
<li>Starcloud-1 (H100) 在轨测试结果公布</li>
</ul>
</div>
<hr class="glow-divider my-4">
<div class="space-y-4 text-sm flex-grow">
<h3 class="font-semibold text-white">长期发展路径 (3-10年)</h3>
<ol class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-1">
<li><strong class="text-blue-400">2025-27:</strong> 技术攻关 & “天数天算”商业化</li>
<li><strong class="text-purple-400">2028-30:</strong> 成本下降 & “地数天算”模式探索</li>
<li><strong class="text-green-400">2031-35:</strong> 规模化部署 & “天基主算”时代</li>
</ol>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Event Timeline -->
<div class="bento-item bento-item-4 fui-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="fui-title text-2xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-4">概念发展时间轴</h2>
<div id="timeline-chart" class="w-full h-80"></div>
</div>
<!-- Risks -->
<div class="bento-item bento-item-5 fui-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 border-amber-500/30 hover:border-amber-500/50 hover:shadow-amber-500/20">
<h2 class="fui-title text-2xl font-bold text-amber-300 mb-4">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-4 gap-4 text-sm">
<div>
<h4 class="font-bold text-white mb-1">技术风险</h4>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside">
<li>发射成本降低不及预期</li>
<li>星间激光通信技术突破缓慢</li>
<li>在轨组装与维护技术不成熟</li>
<li>核心器件太空环境可靠性</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<h4 class="font-bold text-white mb-1">商业化风险</h4>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside">
<li>成本效益与地面绿色IDC竞争</li>
<li>应用场景落地及付费意愿</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<h4 class="font-bold text-white mb-1">政策与竞争风险</h4>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside">
<li>政策支持力度变动</li>
<li>国际巨头技术与成本压制</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<h4 class="font-bold text-white mb-1">预期管理风险</h4>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside">
<li>市场短期预期过于乐观</li>
<li>宏大远景与实现路径的脱节</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Supporting Data Tabs -->
<section id="supporting-data" x-data="{ tab: 'news' }">
<div role="tablist" class="tabs tabs-boxed bg-black/20 backdrop-blur-sm border border-white/10 mb-6">
<a role="tab" class="tab tab-lift text-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active bg-cyan-500/20 !text-cyan-300': tab === 'news' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'news'">新闻洞察</a>
<a role="tab" class="tab tab-lift text-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active bg-cyan-500/20 !text-cyan-300': tab === 'roadshows' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'roadshows'">路演纪要</a>
<a role="tab" class="tab tab-lift text-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active bg-cyan-500/20 !text-cyan-300': tab === 'reports' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'reports'">研报精粹</a>
</div>
<div class="fui-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 min-h-[400px]">
<!-- News Content -->
<div x-show="tab === 'news'" x-transition>
<h3 class="fui-title text-xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-4">新闻核心信息提炼</h3>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6 text-sm">
<div>
<h4 class="font-semibold text-white mb-2">核心价值与战略意义</h4>
<p>突破地面算力<strong class="text-yellow-300">能源、散热、效率</strong>三重矛盾,引领天基计算从“天感地算”向“天数天算”及“天地协同”升级。是航天强国核心构成,新质生产力代表。</p>
</div>
<div>
<h4 class="font-semibold text-white mb-2">核心优势 (vs 地面)</h4>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1">
<li><strong class="text-green-300">能源:</strong> 7x24h供电效率为地面5-8倍。</li>
<li><strong class="text-green-300">散热:</strong> -270℃天然热沉效率提升3倍+PUE趋近1。</li>
<li><strong class="text-green-300">效率:</strong> 规避地面审批,模块化部署快,在轨处理响应速度提升百倍。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<h4 class="font-semibold text-white mb-2">全球主要玩家及进展</h4>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1">
<li><strong>SpaceX:</strong> 4-5年内部署100GW/年数据中心。</li>
<li><strong>Google (Project Suncatcher):</strong> 2027年发射TPU原型卫星。</li>
<li><strong>Starcloud/NVIDIA:</strong> 已成功发射搭载H100 GPU的卫星。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<h4 class="font-semibold text-white mb-2">中国项目进展与规划</h4>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1">
<li><strong class="text-blue-300">之江实验室 "三体计算星座":</strong> 全球首个成功入轨组网首批12颗星已发射总算力5POPS。</li>
<li><strong class="text-blue-300">北京 "太空数据中心":</strong> 规划超GW级试验星“辰光一号”拟2025年底/26年初发射。</li>
<li><strong class="text-blue-300">无锡 "梁溪星座":</strong> 4.5亿招标目标20POPS。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<h4 class="font-semibold text-white mb-2">核心瓶颈与挑战</h4>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1">
<li><strong class="text-red-400">发射成本:</strong> 仍是最大挑战需降至200美元/公斤实现成本持平。</li>
<li><strong class="text-red-400">关键技术:</strong> Tbps级激光通信、在轨组装建造。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<h4 class="font-semibold text-white mb-2">国家政策支持</h4>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1">
<li>《商业航天高质量安全发展行动计划》印发。</li>
<li>准入松绑、设立基金、开放基础设施、扩大采购。</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Roadshows Content -->
<div x-show="tab === 'roadshows'" x-transition style="display: none;">
<h3 class="fui-title text-xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-4">路演核心信息提炼</h3>
<div class="space-y-4 text-sm">
<div><strong class="text-purple-300">产业阶段划分:</strong> 商业航天正由“制造红利”转向“信息基建红利”,太空算力是第二阶段核心。</div>
<div><strong class="text-purple-300">核心驱动力 (数据引力定律):</strong> 天基数据在轨生成,算力必须“靠近数据”以降低时延与带宽成本。</div>
<div>
<strong class="text-purple-300">北京“超GW级太空数据中心”规划:</strong>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside ml-4">
<li><strong>轨道:</strong> 700-800km晨昏轨道实现24h日照。</li>
<li><strong>三阶段路线:</strong> 2023-27 (天数天算) -> 2028-30 (地数天算) -> 2031-35 (天机主算)。</li>
<li><strong>远期目标:</strong> 16座单体1GW、总16GW的太空数据中心。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<strong class="text-purple-300">商业模式:</strong>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside ml-4">
<li><strong>天数天算场景:</strong> 遥感实时处理、空间交通管理、星座路由优化。</li>
<li><strong>地数天算场景:</strong> GPT-5/6等大模型训练、运营商天基算力外包。</li>
<li><strong>付费模式:</strong> 按算力租用、按任务结果、长期框架协议。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div><strong class="text-purple-300">国际对标:</strong> StarCloud (H100试验星)、Google Project Sun Catcher、马斯克星舰+星链V3计划国内在全行业算力基建思路上领先于海外。</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Reports Content -->
<div x-show="tab === 'reports'" x-transition style="display: none;">
<h3 class="fui-title text-xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-4">研报核心信息提炼</h3>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 text-sm">
<div>
<h4 class="font-semibold text-white mb-2">核心观点</h4>
<p>研报普遍认为太空算力是解决AI算力需求的必然趋势是“AI算力竞赛的下一个战场”并预测市场将迎来爆发式增长。Research And Markets预测2035年全球在轨数据中心市场规模将达<strong class="text-green-300">390亿美元</strong>CAGR高达<strong class="text-green-300">67.4%</strong></p>
</div>
<div>
<h4 class="font-semibold text-white mb-2">模式转变</h4>
<p>核心是实现数据处理模式由“天数地算”向“天数天算”和“地数天算”的转变解决此前90%有效数据因传输滞后被弃用的痛点。</p>
</div>
<div>
<h4 class="font-semibold text-white mb-2">中国项目里程碑</h4>
<p>2025年5月14日<strong class="text-blue-300">12颗计算卫星</strong>成功发射,标志我国首个整轨互联的太空计算星座正式组网,实现了“算力上天”、“在轨组网”、“模型上天”三大技术突破。</p>
</div>
<div>
<h4 class="font-semibold text-white mb-2">国际巨头布局</h4>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1">
<li><strong>微软:</strong> 2020年发布“云上太空”服务。</li>
<li><strong>亚马逊:</strong> 2021年部署AWS物联网云解决方案至星载载荷。</li>
<li><strong>欧盟:</strong> 2022年推出ASCEND计划计划到2050年实现1000兆瓦容量。</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Industry Chain Section -->
<section id="industry-chain">
<div class="fui-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="fui-title text-2xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-6 text-center">产业链图谱与核心玩家</h2>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
<!-- Upstream -->
<div class="border border-purple-500/30 rounded-2xl p-4 space-y-3">
<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-center text-purple-300">上游:核心部组件与原材料</h3>
<div class="text-sm">
<p><strong>能源系统:</strong> 太阳能电池 (乾照光电)、锗晶片 (云南锗业)、能源分系统 (上海港湾)。</p>
<hr class="border-purple-500/20 my-2">
<p><strong>算力载荷:</strong> 星载AI芯片 (航宇微)、智能处理产品 (雷科防务)、专用核心部件 (中科曙光/星图)。</p>
<hr class="border-purple-500/20 my-2">
<p><strong>通信载荷:</strong> 激光通信终端 (航天电子、烽火通信、光库科技)。</p>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Midstream -->
<div class="border border-cyan-500/30 rounded-2xl p-4 space-y-3">
<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-center text-cyan-300">中游:星座建设与运营</h3>
<div class="text-sm">
<p><strong>之江实验室“星算计划”:</strong> 普天科技 (战略合作)、软通动力、开普云、千方科技。</p>
<hr class="border-cyan-500/20 my-2">
<p><strong>北京“太空数据中心”:</strong> 顺灏股份 (参股轨道辰光)、优刻得。</p>
<hr class="border-cyan-500/20 my-2">
<p><strong>运载发射:</strong> 商业火箭公司 (东方空间、蓝箭航天等)。</p>
</div>
</div>
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-center text-green-300">下游:应用与服务</h3>
<div class="text-sm">
<p><strong>AI模型与算法:</strong> 开普云 (开悟星云/星核)。</p>
<hr class="border-green-500/20 my-2">
<p><strong>数据服务与云计算:</strong> 航天宏图 (PIE-Engine)、星图测控 (太空云)。</p>
<hr class="border-green-500/20 my-2">
<p><strong>行业应用:</strong> 四川金顶 (矿用AI卫星)。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Stock List Section -->
<section id="stock-list">
<div class="fui-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="fui-title text-2xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-6 text-center">相关概念股梳理</h2>
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
<table class="table w-full text-sm">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>股票名称</th>
<th>股票代码</th>
<th>核心逻辑 / 关联原因</th>
<th>所属项目 / 环节</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>普天科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002544" target="_blank" class="link link-info">002544</a></td><td>与氮星光联等在之江实验室成立联合研发中心,开展空天智算关键技术研发。</td><td><span class="tag-pill px-2 py-1 rounded-full text-xs">之江实验室 (牵头)</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>顺灏股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002565" target="_blank" class="link link-info">002565</a></td><td>参股轨道辰光(19.3%),该公司为北京太空数据中心创新联合体牵头单位。</td><td><span class="tag-pill px-2 py-1 rounded-full text-xs">太空数据中心 (牵头)</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>软通动力</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301236" target="_blank" class="link link-info">301236</a></td><td>与实验室、国星宇航共发“星算计划”,共建天地一体化算力网络及调度体系。</td><td><span class="tag-pill px-2 py-1 rounded-full text-xs">星算计划 (AI与调度)</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>开普云</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688228" target="_blank" class="link link-info">688228</a></td><td>参与“星算计划”建设以开悟星云和开悟星核实现AI赋能算力卫星。</td><td><span class="tag-pill px-2 py-1 rounded-full text-xs">星算计划 (AI与模型)</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>中科曙光</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603019" target="_blank" class="link link-info">603019</a></td><td>与中科星图合作研发面向太空计算场景的高可靠专用核心部件,建设太空算网。</td><td><span class="tag-pill px-2 py-1 rounded-full text-xs">算力载荷/算网</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>中科星图</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688568" target="_blank" class="link link-info">688568</a></td><td>与中科曙光合作研发太空计算专用核心部件,建设开放普惠的太空算网。</td><td><span class="tag-pill px-2 py-1 rounded-full text-xs">算力载荷/算网</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>优刻得</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688158" target="_blank" class="link link-info">688158</a></td><td>加入太空数据中心创新联合体,为规划建设提供核心技术支撑和解决方案。</td><td><span class="tag-pill px-2 py-1 rounded-full text-xs">太空数据中心 (联合体)</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>乾照光电</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300102" target="_blank" class="link link-info">300102</a></td><td>国内领先的砷化镓太阳能电池供应商,卫星太阳能电池市场以砷化镓为主导。</td><td><span class="tag-pill px-2 py-1 rounded-full text-xs">能源系统</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>云南锗业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002428" target="_blank" class="link link-info">002428</a></td><td>锗晶片是生产卫星太阳能电池的关键材料,公司持续扩产空间太阳能电池用锗晶片。</td><td><span class="tag-pill px-2 py-1 rounded-full text-xs">能源系统</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>上海港湾</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=605598" target="_blank" class="link link-info">605598</a></td><td>天基基础设施能源分系统核心供应商。</td><td><span class="tag-pill px-2 py-1 rounded-full text-xs">能源系统</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>航天电子</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600879" target="_blank" class="link link-info">600879</a></td><td>公司型谱化激光通信终端、数据分发处理机等多项卫星载荷已全面配套用户。</td><td><span class="tag-pill px-2 py-1 rounded-full text-xs">激光模块/通信载荷</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>烽火通信</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600498" target="_blank" class="link link-info">600498</a></td><td>激光通信模块核心供应商。</td><td><span class="tag-pill px-2 py-1 rounded-full text-xs">激光模块</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>光库科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300620" target="_blank" class="link link-info">300620</a></td><td>激光通信模块核心供应商。</td><td><span class="tag-pill px-2 py-1 rounded-full text-xs">激光模块</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>航宇微</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300053" target="_blank" class="link link-info">300053</a></td><td>玉龙810芯片为通用AI芯片可面向航空航天启动“新一代宇航SOC芯片”项目。</td><td><span class="tag-pill px-2 py-1 rounded-full text-xs">算力载荷 (芯片)</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>雷科防务</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002413" target="_blank" class="link link-info">002413</a></td><td>多型星上智能处理产品成功交付,通用化星上智算产品研制取得重大进展。</td><td><span class="tag-pill px-2 py-1 rounded-full text-xs">算力载荷 (处理产品)</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>航天宏图</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688066" target="_blank" class="link link-info">688066</a></td><td>自主研发的PIE-Engine时空云计算平台是公司空间计算的基础平台。</td><td><span class="tag-pill px-2 py-1 rounded-full text-xs">应用与服务 (平台)</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>星图测控</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=920116" target="_blank" class="link link-info">920116</a></td><td>太空云产品体系提供太空全域数据服务、智能计算服务,已为计算卫星提供在轨管理。</td><td><span class="tag-pill px-2 py-1 rounded-full text-xs">应用与服务 (平台)</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>四川金顶</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600678" target="_blank" class="link link-info">600678</a></td><td>参股公司发布“矿用AI卫星”搭载超算AI等模块提供一体化解决方案。</td><td><span class="tag-pill px-2 py-1 rounded-full text-xs">行业应用</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>杭钢股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600126" target="_blank" class="link link-info">600126</a></td><td>子公司实施之江实验室机房基础设施升级改造工程,提供地面基础设施支持。</td><td><span class="tag-pill px-2 py-1 rounded-full text-xs">之江实验室 (地面支持)</span></td></tr>
<tr><td>新疆交建</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002941" target="_blank" class="link link-info">002941</a></td><td>持有国星宇航股份比例0.54%。</td><td><span class="tag-pill px-2 py-1 rounded-full text-xs">星算计划 (间接持股)</span></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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