371 lines
26 KiB
HTML
371 lines
26 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>深度投研报告：疯狂动物城2</title>
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<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.11.1/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<script defer src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js"></script>
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
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<style>
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@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Noto+Sans+SC:wght@300;400;500;700&display=swap');
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body {
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font-family: 'Noto Sans SC', sans-serif;
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background-color: #050510;
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background-image:
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radial-gradient(ellipse at 33% 25%, rgba(68, 0, 255, 0.2), transparent 80%),
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radial-gradient(ellipse at 75% 85%, rgba(0, 245, 255, 0.15), transparent 80%);
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background-attachment: fixed;
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color: #e0e7ff;
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}
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.glass {
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background: rgba(15, 15, 30, 0.4);
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backdrop-filter: blur(24px);
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-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(24px);
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border: 1px solid rgba(119, 119, 143, 0.2);
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box-shadow: 0 8px 32px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.37);
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}
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.text-glow-cyan {
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text-shadow: 0 0 8px rgba(0, 245, 255, 0.7), 0 0 12px rgba(0, 245, 255, 0.5);
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}
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.text-glow-magenta {
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text-shadow: 0 0 8px rgba(255, 0, 255, 0.7), 0 0 12px rgba(255, 0, 255, 0.5);
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}
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.bento-grid {
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display: grid;
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gap: 1.5rem;
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grid-template-columns: repeat(12, 1fr);
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}
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.bento-item {
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border-radius: 1.5rem;
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transition: all 0.3s ease;
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overflow: hidden;
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}
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.col-span-12 { grid-column: span 12; }
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.col-span-8 { grid-column: span 8; }
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.col-span-7 { grid-column: span 7; }
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.col-span-6 { grid-column: span 6; }
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.col-span-5 { grid-column: span 5; }
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.col-span-4 { grid-column: span 4; }
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@media (max-width: 1024px) {
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.bento-item { grid-column: span 12 !important; }
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}
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h2, h3 {
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font-weight: 500;
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}
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.highlight {
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color: #00f5ff;
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="antialiased">
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<div x-data="{ loaded: false }" x-init="() => { setTimeout(() => { loaded = true }, 200) }" class="min-h-screen p-4 sm:p-6 lg:p-8">
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<main x-show="loaded" x-transition:enter="transition ease-out duration-1000" x-transition:enter-start="opacity-0 transform -translate-y-4" x-transition:enter-end="opacity-100 transform translate-y-0" class="max-w-7xl mx-auto space-y-8">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center py-8 space-y-4">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold text-glow-cyan tracking-wider">疯狂动物城 2</h1>
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<h2 class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-light text-indigo-300">深度概念投研报告</h2>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-500 max-w-2xl mx-auto">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现，本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。</p>
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</header>
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<!-- 概念事件演进 -->
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<section class="bento-item col-span-12 lg:col-span-8 p-6 glass">
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<h2 class="text-2xl mb-4 text-glow-cyan">概念事件演进</h2>
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<div class="space-y-6">
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<div x-data="{ expanded: false }" class="relative pl-6 before:absolute before:left-0 before:top-2 before:h-full before:w-0.5 before:bg-indigo-700">
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<div class="absolute w-4 h-4 bg-cyan-400 rounded-full -left-2 top-1 border-4 border-slate-900"></div>
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<h3 class="text-xl text-cyan-300">第一阶段：预期发酵期 (2024年初 - 2025/11/25)</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-400 mt-1">IP热度维持与市场期待累积。猫眼平台“想看”人数超 <span class="highlight font-bold">200万</span>，以前作 <span class="highlight font-bold">15.4亿</span> 票房为基准，市场形成“爆款”共识。期间名创优品、泡泡玛特等联名产品热销，持续为IP预热。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="relative pl-6 before:absolute before:left-0 before:top-2 before:h-full before:w-0.5 before:bg-indigo-700">
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<div class="absolute w-4 h-4 bg-cyan-400 rounded-full -left-2 top-1 border-4 border-slate-900"></div>
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<h3 class="text-xl text-cyan-300">第二阶段：事件引爆与纪录刷新期 (2025/11/26 - 2025/12/01)</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-400 mt-1">影片上映后票房表现远超预期。预售即破 <span class="highlight font-bold">3亿</span>，上映6天突破 <span class="highlight font-bold">20亿</span>。接连打破“进口片单日票房冠军”、“非春节档影片单日票房冠军”等多项中国影史纪录。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="relative pl-6 before:absolute before:left-0 before:top-2 before:h-full before:w-0.5 before:bg-transparent">
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<div class="absolute w-4 h-4 bg-cyan-400 rounded-full -left-2 top-1 border-4 border-slate-900"></div>
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<h3 class="text-xl text-cyan-300">第三阶段：价值重估与预期上修期 (2025/12/01至今)</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-400 mt-1">市场价值根本性重估。票务平台将总票房预测从 <span class="highlight font-bold">27亿</span> 持续上修至 <span class="highlight font-bold">42.6亿</span>，市场普遍预期最终落点约 <span class="highlight font-bold">45亿</span>。关注点从票房延伸至 <span class="highlight font-bold">70+</span> 品牌联名的IP衍生品商业生态。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 票房表现 -->
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<section class="bento-item col-span-12 lg:col-span-4 p-6 glass flex flex-col">
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<h2 class="text-2xl mb-4 text-glow-cyan">票房数据 & 纪录</h2>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-slate-300 flex-grow">
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-cyan-400 mr-2">▶</span> 预售票房: <span class="ml-auto font-mono">3.2 亿元</span></li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-cyan-400 mr-2">▶</span> 上映6天票房: <span class="ml-auto font-mono">突破 20 亿元</span></li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-cyan-400 mr-2">▶</span> 全球首五日票房: <span class="ml-auto font-mono">5.56 亿美元</span></li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-cyan-400 mr-2">▶</span> 11/29单日票房: <span class="ml-auto font-mono">突破 7 亿元</span></li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-cyan-400 mr-2">▶</span> 单日排片纪录: <span class="ml-auto font-mono">31.3 万场</span></li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-cyan-400 mr-2">▶</span> 最终票房预测: <span class="ml-auto font-mono">~42.6 亿元</span></li>
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</ul>
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</section>
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<!-- Echarts 票房增长 -->
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<section class="bento-item col-span-12 lg:col-span-7 p-6 glass">
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<h2 class="text-2xl mb-4 text-glow-cyan">票房累计增长曲线 (亿元)</h2>
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<div id="box-office-chart" style="width: 100%; height: 300px;"></div>
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</section>
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<!-- 核心观点摘要 -->
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<section class="bento-item col-span-12 lg:col-span-5 p-6 glass flex flex-col justify-center">
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<h2 class="text-2xl mb-4 text-glow-cyan">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<p class="text-slate-300">
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“疯狂动物城2”概念的本质，是<span class="text-glow-magenta">一个顶级全球性IP在中国市场实现了远超预期的商业爆发</span>。其核心驱动力源于<span class="text-glow-magenta">高质量内容与深厚观众基础的共振</span>。概念已从“事件驱动”过渡到“基本面驱动”阶段，未来潜力在于验证现象级观影热潮能否有效传导至规模庞大的衍生品市场。
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</p>
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</section>
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<!-- 核心逻辑 -->
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<section class="bento-item col-span-12 p-6 glass">
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<h2 class="text-2xl mb-6 text-glow-cyan">核心驱动力与市场认知</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div class="p-4 border border-indigo-900 rounded-xl">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-cyan-300 mb-2">① 强IP势能</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">前作积累的庞大粉丝基础与社会文化隐喻，赋予其“合家欢”与“全年龄段”属性。上映前IP已具备极高社交热度和商业价值，奠定坚实基础。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 border border-indigo-900 rounded-xl">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-cyan-300 mb-2">② 高品质内容</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">猫眼<span class="highlight">9.7</span>、豆瓣<span class="highlight">8.6</span>的高口碑是引爆热潮的关键。在“内容为王”背景下，过硬质量是实现票房从“优秀”到“现象级”跃迁的核心。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 border border-indigo-900 rounded-xl">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-cyan-300 mb-2">③ 全渠道宣发</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">中影确保排片优势（单日<span class="highlight">31.3万</span>场次创纪录），结合中国风宣传片、<span class="highlight">70+</span>品牌联名，构建了立体式营销网络。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="mt-6 p-4 bg-slate-900/50 rounded-xl">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-amber-300">预期差分析 & 潜在认知盲点</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400 mt-2 text-sm">影片表现制造了巨大的正向预期差，从映前对标前作的<span class="highlight">15.4亿</span>，到映后预测上修至<span class="highlight">40亿+</span>。然而市场可能忽略了观点：“<span class="text-amber-400">这仅是本土化消费壁垒下的孤立样本</span>”，从而高估其对整个进口片市场的普遍提振作用，这是未来情绪回归理性的关键考量点。</p>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 产业链图谱 -->
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<section class="bento-item col-span-12 p-6 glass">
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<h2 class="text-2xl mb-4 text-glow-cyan">产业链与核心公司深度剖析</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-4 gap-4 text-center text-sm">
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<div class="p-3 rounded-lg bg-indigo-900/50">
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<h4 class="font-semibold">上游：IP授权与制作</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400 mt-1">华特迪士尼</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-3 rounded-lg bg-indigo-900/50">
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<h4 class="font-semibold">中游：引进与发行</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400 mt-1">中国电影、华夏电影</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-3 rounded-lg bg-indigo-900/50">
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<h4 class="font-semibold">下游：影院放映</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400 mt-1">万达电影、横店影视等</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-3 rounded-lg bg-indigo-900/50">
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<h4 class="font-semibold">衍生端：IP商业化</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400 mt-1">森马、实丰、中信出版等</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="mt-6 grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div class="p-4 space-y-2 border border-cyan-700/50 rounded-xl bg-cyan-900/20">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-cyan-300">逻辑最纯粹核心受益者</h4>
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<p class="font-mono text-xl">中国电影 (600977)</p>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-300">作为独家引进方和联合发行方，业绩与票房直接挂钩，确定性最高。将直接从 40亿+ 票房分账中受益，业绩弹性巨大。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 space-y-2 border border-purple-700/50 rounded-xl bg-purple-900/20">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-purple-300">衍生品赛道代表玩家</h4>
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<p class="font-mono text-xl">实丰文化 (002862) vs 森马服饰 (002563)</p>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-300">实丰文化逻辑更纯粹（IP授权商），弹性高；森马服饰逻辑更稳健（联名产品线之一）。最终验证点在于终端动销数据及后续财报披露。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 space-y-2 border border-amber-700/50 rounded-xl bg-amber-900/20">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-amber-300">事件驱动的投机性标的</h4>
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<p class="font-mono text-xl">出版传媒 (601999)</p>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-300">上涨源于“有望深度合作”的市场传闻，是典型的“弱逻辑、强情绪”炒作案例。风险在于传闻被证伪或合作不及预期。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 风险与结论 -->
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<section class="bento-item col-span-12 p-6 glass">
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
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<div>
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<h2 class="text-2xl mb-4 text-glow-cyan">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-slate-300 text-sm">
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<li class="flex items-start"><strong class="text-amber-400 mr-2 w-28 shrink-0">商业化风险:</strong> 票房成功不完全等同于衍生品成功，观影热情能否转化为持续购买力存在不确定性。</li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><strong class="text-amber-400 mr-2 w-28 shrink-0">竞争风险:</strong> 影片成功可能导致同质化题材加剧竞争，IP后续开发若质量下滑将迅速消耗口碑。</li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><strong class="text-amber-400 mr-2 w-28 shrink-0">宏观市场风险:</strong> 需警惕将其成功泛化为所有进口片回暖，国产头部内容主导格局未变。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h2 class="text-2xl mb-4 text-glow-cyan">综合结论与投资启示</h2>
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<p class="mb-4 text-slate-300 text-sm">概念已进入由强劲票房数据驱动的<span class="highlight">基本面验证阶段</span>。市场焦点正从“票房有多高”转向“IP价值链能兑现多少”。</p>
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<div class="space-y-2 text-sm">
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<p><strong class="text-cyan-400">1. 高确定性环节 (发行/院线):</strong> 以中国电影为代表，最直接、确定的受益者。</p>
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<p><strong class="text-cyan-400">2. 高弹性环节 (IP衍生品):</strong> 以实丰文化、森马服饰为代表，想象空间广阔，需后续销售数据验证。</p>
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<p><strong class="text-cyan-400">3. 谨慎参与环节 (传闻/概念股):</strong> 缺乏明确业务关联的标的，视为短期情绪博弈，风险极高。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 相关股票列表 -->
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<section class="bento-item col-span-12 p-6 glass">
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<h2 class="text-2xl mb-4 text-glow-cyan">相关A股列表</h2>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="table table-zebra-zebra">
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<thead class="text-base text-slate-300">
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<tr>
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<th>股票名称</th>
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<th>股票代码</th>
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<th>核心逻辑</th>
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<th>标签</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody class="text-slate-400">
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<tr>
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<td>中国电影</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600977" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">600977</a></td>
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<td>公司为《疯狂动物城2》的独家引进方、联合发行方之一，并拥有院线业务</td>
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<td><span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">发行方</span> <span class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">院线</span></td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>上海电影</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601595" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">601595</a></td>
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<td>华夏电影（公司持股14%）为《疯狂动物城2》联合发行方之一，并拥有院线业务</td>
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<td><span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">发行方</span> <span class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">院线</span></td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>实丰文化</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002862" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">002862</a></td>
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<td>迪士尼《疯狂动物城2》IP授权商，获授权开发玩具、潮玩等衍生品</td>
|
||
<td><span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">IP相关</span> <span class="badge badge-success badge-outline">衍生品</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>森马服饰</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002563" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">002563</a></td>
|
||
<td>公司旗下品牌已推出迪士尼疯狂动物城IP联名产品</td>
|
||
<td><span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">IP相关</span> <span class="badge badge-success badge-outline">衍生品</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>中信出版</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300788" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">300788</a></td>
|
||
<td>作为《疯狂动物城》官方授权图书的独家出版方，推出设定集、绘本等产品</td>
|
||
<td><span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">IP相关</span> <span class="badge badge-info badge-outline">图书</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>万达电影</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002739" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">002739</a></td>
|
||
<td>国内领先的院线公司，直接受益于高票房</td>
|
||
<td><span class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">院线</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>横店影视</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603103" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">603103</a></td>
|
||
<td>国内主要院线公司之一，受益于票房增长</td>
|
||
<td><span class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">院线</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>金逸影视</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002905" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">002905</a></td>
|
||
<td>国内主要院线公司之一，受益于票房增长</td>
|
||
<td><span class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">院线</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>中国东航</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600115" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">600115</a></td>
|
||
<td>与迪士尼合作，推出“疯狂动物城”主题彩绘飞机进行品牌联名</td>
|
||
<td><span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">IP相关</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>游族网络</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002174" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">002174</a></td>
|
||
<td>休闲游戏《迪士尼过马路》可进入疯狂动物城等像素化世界</td>
|
||
<td><span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">IP相关</span> <span class="badge badge-warning badge-outline">游戏</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>巨人网络</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002558" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">002558</a></td>
|
||
<td>旗下游戏曾推出“疯狂动物城”等创新玩法</td>
|
||
<td><span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">IP相关</span> <span class="badge badge-warning badge-outline">游戏</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>姚记科技</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002605" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-400">002605</a></td>
|
||
<td>与迪士尼签署许可协议，许可材料中包含疯狂动物城原型</td>
|
||
<td><span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">IP相关</span> <span class="badge badge-warning badge-outline">游戏</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
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