392 lines
23 KiB
HTML
392 lines
23 KiB
HTML
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<title>人形机器人万向节 - 深度研报</title>
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<header class="text-center mb-16">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold title-gradient mb-3">
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人形机器人万向节 · 深度研报
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</h1>
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<p class="text-gray-400">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研”</p>
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</header>
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<main class="space-y-12">
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<!-- Section 0: Concept Event -->
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<section class="glass-card">
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<h2>0. 概念事件</h2>
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<p class="text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">“人形机器人万向节”概念的引爆点源于市场对特斯拉下一代人形机器人Optimus Gen3技术路线的高度关注。核心催化事件为市场传闻（【财通机械佘炜超团队】等）其可能在<strong>腕关节</strong>等部位新增万向节，以显著提升运动灵活度。这一传闻将原本成熟的汽车零部件推向人形机器人产业链的前沿，引发市场从“零认知”到高度关注的转变，并迅速扩散，相关公司（万向钱潮、冠盛股份等）亦积极响应，确认进行相关技术研究，夯实了概念的逻辑基础。</p>
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</section>
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<!-- Bento Grid: Core Viewpoints & Key Catalysts -->
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<div class="grid lg:grid-cols-3 gap-8">
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<div class="glass-card lg:col-span-2 bento-highlight">
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<h2>1. 核心观点摘要</h2>
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<p class="text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">“人形机器人万向节”概念目前处于由<strong>单一强催化剂（特斯拉传闻）驱动</strong>的<strong>主题炒作初期阶段</strong>，尚未进入由订单和业绩驱动的基本面验证期。其核心驱动力在于万向节为机器人关键部位（腕、颈、踝）提供了高性价比的<strong>多自由度解决方案</strong>，有望打开一个全新的增量市场。然而，概念的最终落地存在<strong>技术路线不确定性</strong>和来自<strong>一体化关节模组等替代方案的竞争风险</strong>。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card">
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<h2>3. 关键催化剂</h2>
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<ul class="space-y-3 list-disc list-inside text-gray-300">
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<li><strong>终极催化剂:</strong> 特斯拉Optimus Gen3正式发布，官方确认技术路线。</li>
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<li><strong>进度催化剂:</strong> 核心公司（如万向钱潮）样品落地并通过下游客户验证。</li>
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<li><strong>行业催化剂:</strong> 其他主流机器人厂商（如优必选、宇树）披露采用万向节方案。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Section 2: Core Logic & Market Perception -->
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<section class="glass-card">
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<h2>2. 概念的核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h2>
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<div class="space-y-6">
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<div>
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<h3>技术驱动：性能的跃升</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">概念的根本逻辑在于性能提升。新闻与研报明确指出：“一个关节轴承一般只有一个旋转自由度，而一个万向节有两个自由度并通过两个自由度组合成空间360度的自由度”，这对于模拟人体<strong>颈部、手腕、脚腕</strong>等复杂关节至关重要，是实现机器人“灵巧”操作的关键。万向节允许被连接零件夹角在一定范围内变化，能为机器人四肢关节提供向各个方向自由移动的能力。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3>成本驱动：商业化的捷径</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">万向节作为汽车传动系统的成熟部件，拥有完善的产业链和成本控制经验。从成熟车用技术上进行“降维”开发（从大扭矩、长寿命转向<strong>小规格、高精度、薄壁结构</strong>），可能是一条更具成本效益的商业化路径。市场预计“5套万向节+轴承目前预计价格过万”，显示其潜在价值量可观。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3>产业驱动：供应链的迁移</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">人形机器人巨大的市场潜力，吸引了传统汽车零部件供应商寻求“第二增长曲线”。<strong>万向钱潮、冠盛股份、正强股份</strong>等公司凭借在万向节领域的技术积累，有动力和能力切入这一新兴赛道。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3>预期差分析：冷静与热情的交织</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-2 list-disc list-inside text-gray-300">
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<li><strong>进度预期差：</strong>市场热情高涨，但多数公司仍处“可行性研究”或“样品开发”阶段（如冠盛股份、万向钱潮“预计年内开发出样件”），商业化速度可能被高估。</li>
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<li><strong>技术路线唯一性预期差：</strong>市场倾向视万向节为最优解，但研报提及了关键替代方案——“<strong>一体化谐波关节模组</strong>”，其功能上可能“替代并超越了传统万向节结构”，构成颠覆性风险。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Section 4: Industry Chain & Core Companies -->
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<section class="glass-card">
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<h2>4. 产业链与核心公司深度剖析</h2>
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<div class="space-y-6">
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<div>
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<h3>产业链图谱</h3>
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<ul class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-4 text-center">
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<li class="p-4 bg-slate-800/50 rounded-lg border border-slate-700"><strong>上游</strong><p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-1">特种钢材, 精密轴承, 密封件</p></li>
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<li class="p-4 bg-indigo-900/50 rounded-lg border border-indigo-700"><strong>中游 (核心)</strong><p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-1">万向节总成及零部件制造商</p></li>
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<li class="p-4 bg-purple-900/50 rounded-lg border border-purple-700"><strong>下游</strong><p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-1">人形机器人整机制造商</p></li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3>核心玩家对比</h3>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="p-4 border border-indigo-600 rounded-xl bg-indigo-950/30">
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<p><strong>万向钱潮 (000559) - 领导者/先锋</strong></p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-2"><strong>优势：</strong>前装市场龙头，技术实力雄厚，平台化布局（滚柱丝杠、特种轴承）抗风险能力强。<br><strong>进展：</strong>进度最明确，已成立技术攻关组，“预计年内开发出样件”。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 border border-indigo-600 rounded-xl bg-indigo-950/30">
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<p><strong>正强股份 (301119) - 纯粹标的/弹性选手</strong></p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-2"><strong>优势：</strong>专注于万向节核心部件“十字轴”，逻辑最纯粹，市场认知度高（路演重点推荐）。<br><strong>进展：</strong>处于“密切关注”、“和相关公司进行接触”的早期阶段。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 border border-indigo-600 rounded-xl bg-indigo-950/30">
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<p><strong>冠盛股份 (605088) - 积极追赶者</strong></p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-2"><strong>优势：</strong>后装市场龙头，具成本控制能力，协同布局机器人关节轴承。<br><strong>进展：</strong>处于“可行性研究”阶段，已有客户询问，行动相对谨慎。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Section 5: Risks & Section 6: Conclusion -->
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<div class="grid lg:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
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<section class="glass-card">
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<h2>5. 潜在风险与挑战</h2>
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<ul class="space-y-3 list-disc list-inside text-gray-300">
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<li><strong>技术路线替代风险：</strong>“一体化谐波关节模组”等集成化方案是最大的技术威胁，可能在重量、效率上更优。</li>
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<li><strong>商业化不确定性：</strong>需求高度依赖特斯拉传闻，一旦其选择其他方案，概念逻辑将受根本性动摇。</li>
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<li><strong>工艺跨越风险：</strong>从车用“大扭矩”到机器人用“高精度、薄壁”的技术跨越存在不确定性。</li>
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<li><strong>信息交叉验证风险：</strong>市场热情与研报中冷静指出的替代方案存在矛盾，需警惕单一信源偏差。</li>
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</ul>
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</section>
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<section class="glass-card">
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<h2>6. 综合结论与投资启示</h2>
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<p class="text-gray-300 leading-relaxed mb-4">“人形机器人万向节”是市场在宏大主题下对潜在“高价值、高弹性”细分零部件的挖掘和预演，目前明确处于<strong>主题炒作阶段</strong>，缺乏订单支撑。</p>
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<p class="text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">与其押注单一组件，更具价值的是致力于解决机器人复杂关节<strong>“多自由度、高精度、轻量化”</strong>需求的<strong>平台型公司</strong>（如万向钱潮）和具<strong>核心技术壁垒的公司</strong>（如正强股份）。</p>
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<h3 class="text-base">需重点跟踪的关键指标:</h3>
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<ul class="text-sm text-gray-400 space-y-1 list-disc list-inside">
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<li>特斯拉Optimus Gen3的最终关节设计方案。</li>
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<li>核心供应商的样品交付与测试反馈。</li>
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<li>首份人形机器人万向节相关批量采购合同公告。</li>
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</ul>
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</section>
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</div>
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<!-- ECharts Chart -->
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<section class="glass-card">
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<h2>相关概念股涨幅表现分析</h2>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-4">以下图表展示了在相关时间点，部分机器人概念股的单日涨幅情况，反映了市场对该赛道的高度关注和情绪波动。</p>
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<div id="rise-chart" style="width: 100%; height: 400px;"></div>
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</section>
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<!-- Stock Table -->
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<section class="glass-card">
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<h2>核心概念股列表</h2>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="table w-full text-base">
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<thead>
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<tr>
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<th>股票名称</th>
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<th>股票代码</th>
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<th>核心逻辑</th>
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<th>其他标签</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td>万向钱潮</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000559" target="_blank">000559</a></td>
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<td>人形机器人方面已围绕关节万向节等一些精密核心件成立技术攻关组，预计年内开发出样件。</td>
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<td><span class="badge badge-outline badge-info">调研</span> <span class="badge badge-outline badge-error">涨幅大于10%</span></td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>冠盛股份</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=605088" target="_blank">605088</a></td>
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<td>核心产品万向节可用于机器人关节；与四川天链机器人在机器人轴承产品领域展开战略合作。</td>
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<td><span class="badge badge-outline badge-success">半年报</span></td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>正强股份</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301119" target="_blank">301119</a></td>
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<td>主要产品包括十字轴、万向节总成及节叉；密切关注机器人发展动态，已和相关公司进行接触。</td>
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<td><span class="badge badge-outline badge-info">调研</span></td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>瑞迪智驱</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301596" target="_blank">301596</a></td>
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<td>研发项目包括万向节联轴器开发项目，处于试产阶段；产品广泛用于机器人。</td>
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<td><span class="badge badge-outline badge-accent">年报</span></td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>五洲新春</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603667" target="_blank">603667</a></td>
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<td>产品包括汽车等速万向节滚针轴承；可依托轴承精密制造技术优势，快速形成产能。</td>
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<td><span class="badge badge-outline badge-primary">公告/调研</span></td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>远东传动</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002406" target="_blank">002406</a></td>
|
||
<td>主营产品传动轴、万向节等汽车零部件；机器人领域为公司转型提供可能性。</td>
|
||
<td><span class="badge badge-outline badge-secondary">互动</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>襄阳轴承</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000678" target="_blank">000678</a></td>
|
||
<td>主要销售轴承、万向节等产品；加快推进机器人轴承等的研发制造。</td>
|
||
<td><span class="badge badge-outline badge-accent">年报</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>怡合达</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301029" target="_blank">301029</a></td>
|
||
<td>公司传动零部件产品包括万向节；时刻关注探索人形机器人领域的发展机会。</td>
|
||
<td><span class="badge badge-outline badge-success">半年报</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Footer -->
|
||
<footer class="text-center mt-16 text-gray-500 text-sm">
|
||
<p>本报告为AI合成数据，不构成任何投资建议，投资需谨慎。</p>
|
||
<p>© 2024 北京价值前沿科技有限公司. All Rights Reserved.</p>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
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|
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{ stock: '机器人', rise_rate: 14.67 },
|
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{ stock: '唯万密封', rise_rate: 12.36 },
|
||
{ stock: '中大力德', rise_rate: 10.01 },
|
||
{ stock: '龙溪股份', rise_rate: 10.02 },
|
||
{ stock: '杭齿前进', rise_rate: 10.02 },
|
||
{ stock: '新时达', rise_rate: 10.03 },
|
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{ stock: '方正电机', rise_rate: 10.03 },
|
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{ stock: '征和工业', rise_rate: 10.0 },
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||
{ stock: '东方精工', rise_rate: 9.97 },
|
||
{ stock: '铭科精技', rise_rate: 9.99 },
|
||
{ stock: '恒帅股份', rise_rate: 8.7 },
|
||
{ stock: '宁波华翔', rise_rate: 10.01 }
|
||
];
|
||
|
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|
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|
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myChart.setOption(option);
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window.addEventListener('resize', () => myChart.resize());
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</body>
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</html> |