511 lines
31 KiB
HTML
511 lines
31 KiB
HTML
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<title>摩尔线程 (Moore Threads) | 国产GPU第一股深度研报</title>
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<body class="min-h-screen">
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<div class="container mx-auto px-4 py-8 md:py-16">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center mb-12 md:mb-20">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold concept-title text-white">摩尔线程 <span class="text-3xl md:text-5xl opacity-75">(Moore Threads)</span></h1>
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<p class="mt-4 text-lg md:text-xl opacity-80">国产GPU第一股深度研报</p>
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<div class="mt-4 text-sm text-gray-400">
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<p>由 北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现</p>
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<p class="font-semibold text-amber-400">本报告为AI合成数据，不构成投资建议，投资需谨慎。</p>
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</div>
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</header>
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<!-- Main Content Grid -->
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<main class="space-y-8">
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<!-- Insight Section -->
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<section id="insight" x-data="{}" class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<!-- Core Viewpoint -->
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<div class="glass-card p-6 lg:col-span-3">
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<h2 class="section-title text-2xl mb-4">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<p class="text-base leading-relaxed">
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摩尔线程是<strong class="highlight-text">国产替代</strong>与<strong class="highlight-text">AI算力</strong>两大时代主题下的核心标的，其科创板IPO是公司从技术研发迈向规模化商业变现的关键里程碑。当前，该概念由<strong class="highlight-text">事件驱动（IPO）和政策预期</strong>主导，市场情绪高涨。然而，其长期价值取决于能否在<strong class="highlight-text">技术追赶、生态构建、商业化落地</strong>这“三座大山”上取得实质性突破。目前基本面仍面临巨大挑战，市场普遍认知与内部路演数据间存在显著的预期差，这既是风险也是机会所在。
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</p>
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</div>
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<!-- IPO Timeline -->
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<div class="glass-card p-6 lg:col-span-1">
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<h2 class="section-title text-xl mb-6">关键事件：IPO之路</h2>
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<div class="timeline">
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-white">启动上市</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">2024-11-13</p>
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<p class="text-sm mt-1">在北京证监局办理辅导备案，正式启动A股上市。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-white">申请受理</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">2025-06-30</p>
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<p class="text-sm mt-1">科创板IPO申请获上交所受理，进入实质性审核。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-white">成功过会</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">2025-09-26</p>
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<p class="text-sm mt-1">首发申请成功过会，扫清关键障碍（此前曾遭实名举报）。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-white">正式上市</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">2025-12-05</p>
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<p class="text-sm mt-1">股票代码“688795”在科创板上市，发行价<span class="highlight-text">114.28元</span>，市值<span class="highlight-text">537.15亿元</span>。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Core Logic & Expectation Gap -->
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<div class="glass-card p-6 lg:col-span-2">
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<h2 class="section-title text-xl mb-4">核心逻辑与预期差分析</h2>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-white mb-2">核心驱动力：AI算力需求与国产化的紧迫性</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside text-sm space-y-1 pl-2">
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-300">技术驱动:</strong> AIGC时代，大模型训练与推理对GPU算力产生无尽需求。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-300">政策驱动:</strong> 外部限制性政策与国家数据安全需求，为国产GPU创造了强制性的市场替代窗口。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-300">商业化转型:</strong> 业务结构迅速转向高价值的AI智算领域，2025 H1收入占比高达<span class="font-bold text-white">94.85%</span>。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="divider before:bg-gray-700 after:bg-gray-700"></div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-red-400 mb-2">显著的预期差（市场认知 vs 路演现实）</h3>
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<ul class="list-none space-y-3 text-sm">
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<span class="text-red-400 mr-3 mt-1">⚠️</span>
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<div><strong class="text-white">性能预期差:</strong> 市场认为其接近国际先进水平，而路演揭示其产品对标A100，性能仅为其<span class="font-bold text-white">50-100%</span>，与H100差距巨大。</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<span class="text-red-400 mr-3 mt-1">⚠️</span>
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<div><strong class="text-white">生态预期差:</strong> 市场认为MUSA生态兼容性高，而路演揭示存在<span class="font-bold text-white">迁移成本问题</span>，且在运营商市场<span class="font-bold text-white">认可度仍低</span>。</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<span class="text-red-400 mr-3 mt-1">⚠️</span>
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<div><strong class="text-white">产能预期差:</strong> 市场认为已实现量产，而路演揭示其在国产7nm产线每月仅能分到<span class="font-bold text-white">数百片</span>晶圆，产能是严重瓶颈。</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<span class="text-red-400 mr-3 mt-1">⚠️</span>
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<div><strong class="text-white">竞争预期差:</strong> 市场认为其是“第一股”，而路演指出竞争对手<span class="font-bold text-white">沐曦股份</span>在2024年收入和亏损控制上均优于摩尔线程。</div>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Financials & Business Mix Section -->
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<section id="financials" class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<!-- IPO & Fundraising -->
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<div class="glass-card p-6 md:col-span-1">
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<h2 class="section-title text-xl mb-4">发行与募资概览</h2>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-base">
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<li class="flex justify-between items-center"><span>拟募集资金:</span> <span class="highlight-text text-lg">80 亿元</span></li>
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<li class="flex justify-between items-center"><span>发行价格:</span> <span class="highlight-text text-lg">114.28 元/股</span></li>
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<li class="flex justify-between items-center"><span>发行市值:</span> <span class="highlight-text text-lg">537.15 亿元</span></li>
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<li class="flex justify-between items-center"><span>股票代码:</span> <span class="highlight-text text-lg">688795.SH</span></li>
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</ul>
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<div class="divider before:bg-gray-700 after:bg-gray-700 my-4"></div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-white mb-2">募资用途</h3>
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<ul class="text-sm space-y-1">
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<li>AI训推一体芯片研发: <span class="font-mono">~25.1 亿元</span></li>
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<li>新一代图形芯片研发: <span class="font-mono">~25.0 亿元</span></li>
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<li>新一代AISoC芯片研发: <span class="font-mono">~19.8 亿元</span></li>
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<li>补充流动资金: <span class="font-mono">~10.1 亿元</span></li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<!-- Business Mix Chart -->
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<div class="glass-card p-6 md:col-span-2">
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<h2 class="section-title text-xl mb-4">核心业务转型：All in AI智算</h2>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-2">数据来源：研报 (2025 H1 主营业务收入构成)</p>
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<div id="businessMixChart" class="w-full h-80"></div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Catalysts & Risks -->
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<section id="catalysts-risks" class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<!-- Catalysts -->
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<div class="glass-card p-6">
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<h2 class="section-title text-xl mb-4">未来关键催化剂</h2>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-cyan-300 mb-2">近期催化剂 (3-6个月)</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside text-sm space-y-1">
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<li><strong class="text-white">MUSA开发者大会 (12月):</strong> 展示生态建设成果，评估生态能力的关键事件。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">2025全年财报:</strong> 验证营收高增长（预测178%-242%）与亏损收窄能否兑现。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">重大订单突破:</strong> 在运营商或大型互联网公司的订单突破将是极强催化剂。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="divider before:bg-gray-700 after:bg-gray-700 my-4"></div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-cyan-300 mb-2">长期发展路径</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside text-sm space-y-1">
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<li><strong class="text-white">技术迭代:</strong> 完成募投项目，研发新一代芯片，追赶国际巨头。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">生态完善:</strong> 从兼容CUDA到构建MUSA原生生态，形成网络效应。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">场景拓展:</strong> 向AIPC、边缘计算、汽车智能座舱（预计2026年）等领域渗透。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">实现盈利:</strong> 最终摆脱亏损，进入可持续发展的良性循环。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Risks -->
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<div class="glass-card p-6">
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<h2 class="section-title text-xl mb-4 text-red-400">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
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<div class="space-y-3">
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-white">技术风险</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">与Nvidia的技术代差巨大，追赶速度若跟不上，国产替代窗口期可能被压缩。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-white">商业化风险</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">巨额亏损（2024年亏损16.18亿），市场接受度低（CUDA迁移成本、运营商认可度），产能瓶颈严重（每月数百片）。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-white">政策与竞争风险</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">已被列入美国“实体清单”，面临制裁加剧风险。国内赛道拥挤，面临沐曦、华为、寒武纪等强力对手竞争。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-white">信息交叉验证风险</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">研报/新闻的乐观叙事与路演数据的现实骨感之间存在巨大矛盾。估值基于宏大故事，但实际数据揭示诸多挑战。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Ecosystem -->
|
||
<section id="stock-ecosystem">
|
||
<div class="text-center my-12">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title text-3xl">产业链核心标的与资本图谱</h2>
|
||
<p class="mt-2 text-gray-400">以下为摩尔线程产业链相关的上市公司，按关联类型分类。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="space-y-10">
|
||
<!-- 参股/影子股 -->
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold text-white mb-4 pl-2 border-l-4 border-cyan-400">资本关联方 (参股/影子股)</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table w-full custom-table">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>持股比例 (直接/间接)</th>
|
||
<th>核心关联</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>和而泰</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002402" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">002402</a></td><td class="font-mono">1.0262%</td><td>关系最纯粹的直接参股方，多次公告确认。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>宏力达</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688330" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">688330</a></td><td class="font-mono">0.3076%</td><td>每亿元市值持股数较高，股价弹性可能更大。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>中科蓝讯</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688332" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">688332</a></td><td class="font-mono">0.3351%</td><td>每亿元市值持股数较高，股价弹性可能更大。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>联美控股</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600167" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">600167</a></td><td class="font-mono">0.3351%</td><td>通过子公司投资1亿元，市场关注度高。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>盈趣科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002925" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">002925</a></td><td class="font-mono">0.3351%</td><td>直接持股，基于战略布局投资。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>ST华通 (世纪华通)</td><td></td><td class="font-mono">0.3581%</td><td>通过旗下产业基金间接投资。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>初灵信息</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300250" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">300250</a></td><td class="font-mono">0.0229%</td><td>通过认购中移数字新经济产业基金间接持股。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>厦门国贸</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600755" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">600755</a></td><td class="font-mono">0.1564%</td><td>通过参与投资的股权投资基金间接持股。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>华辰装备</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300809" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">300809</a></td><td class="font-mono">0.099%</td><td>通过参股的创业投资合伙企业间接持股。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>圣元环保</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300867" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">300867</a></td><td class="font-mono">~0.2423%</td><td>通过认购中原前海股权投资基金间接参与投资。</td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 产业链合作 -->
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold text-white mb-4 pl-2 border-l-4 border-cyan-400">产业链深度绑定与核心合作方</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table w-full custom-table">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>关联类型</th>
|
||
<th>核心关联</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>翰博高新</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301321" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">301321</a></td><td>深度业务绑定</td><td>向摩尔线程预付款高达 <strong class="highlight-text">1.79亿元</strong>，远超一般合作，业务高度捆绑。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>浙大网新</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600797" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">600797</a></td><td>核心渠道</td><td>摩尔线程的浙江省总代理，销售情况的“晴雨表”。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>麦捷科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300319" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">300319</a></td><td>上游供货</td><td>批量供货一体电感和绕线组合电感，国产GPU上游核心受益者。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>华天科技</td><td></td><td>上游封测</td><td>新闻数据确认，为摩尔线程提供芯片封装测试服务。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>晶丰明源</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688368" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">688368</a></td><td>上游供货(意向)</td><td>公司DC/DC产品意向客户包括摩尔线程等显卡厂商。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>东方中科</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002819" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">002819</a></td><td>测试服务</td><td>为MTT S4000加速卡提供全流程测试服务，深度合作。</td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 生态合作 -->
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold text-white mb-4 pl-2 border-l-4 border-cyan-400">生态系统与解决方案合作方</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table w-full custom-table">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>合作领域</th>
|
||
<th>核心关联</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>三六零</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601360" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">601360</a></td><td>大模型一体机</td><td>战略合作，携手打造“360智脑大模型一体机”，是生态落地的样板案例。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>超图软件</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300036" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">300036</a></td><td>GIS</td><td>共同打造“GPU加速三维GIS全国产解决方案”，提供“地理空间AI+AI芯片”方案。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>东华软件</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002065" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">002065</a></td><td>智算中心</td><td>携手打造国产GPU服务器生产运营总部基地。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>铜牛信息</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300895" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">300895</a></td><td>智算中心</td><td>在AI算力服务、智能算力中心建设等方面全方位合作。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>麒麟信安</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688152" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">688152</a></td><td>操作系统适配</td><td>操作系统、云桌面产品与摩尔线程产品进行研发适配。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>中望软件</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688083" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">688083</a></td><td>工业软件(CAD)</td><td>ZWCAD Linux产品实现与摩尔线程等国产显卡的适配。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>佳都科技</td><td></td><td>终端客户</td><td>在业务方面是生态合作伙伴，其交通行业大模型采用摩尔线程产品进行推理。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>威星智能</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002849" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">002849</a></td><td>智算中心(已终止)</td><td><strong class="text-amber-400">风险证伪案例：</strong>曾计划合作建设智算中心，后项目中止，表明合作落地存在不确定性。</td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
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</div>
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