511 lines
38 KiB
HTML
511 lines
38 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<title>海上风电 | 深度研究报告</title>
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="antialiased text-gray-300">
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center mb-12 md:mb-20">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold glow-text bg-clip-text text-transparent bg-gradient-to-r from-sky-300 to-indigo-400">
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海上风电
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</h1>
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<p class="text-lg md:text-xl mt-4 text-gray-400">深度研究报告</p>
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<p class="text-sm mt-2 text-gray-500">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研”</p>
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</header>
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<!-- Main Content -->
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<main class="space-y-16">
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<!-- Section 1: Core Insights Bento Grid -->
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<section>
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<h2 class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold mb-6 glow-text">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 lg:col-span-2">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-sky-300 mb-3">综合结论</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300">海上风电已明确进入<strong class="text-white">基本面驱动的上升周期</strong>，而非单纯主题炒作。长期增长逻辑清晰、空间广阔，但发展路径是伴随审批、技术、成本等关卡需要逐一攻克的阶梯式前进。当前阶段，<strong class="text-white">确定性大于想象力</strong>。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-sky-300 mb-3">核心驱动力</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300">行业已从单一补贴驱动，转变为<strong class="text-white">“地方能源需求 + 平价经济性 + 深远海技术迭代”</strong>三轮驱动的新模式。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-sky-300 mb-3">最具投资价值环节</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-300">
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<li><strong>海缆:</strong> 深远海化的“卖水者”，量价齐升逻辑最确定，技术壁垒高。</li>
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<li><strong>具备出海能力的海工基础:</strong> 受益于深远海（用量增加）与欧洲市场供给缺口，可平滑国内波动。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 lg:col-span-2">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-sky-300 mb-3">关键跟踪指标</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-300 grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-x-4">
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<li>重点省份月度核准/开工数据</li>
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<li>海缆/海工基础招标价格与订单</li>
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<li>龙头企业海外订单公告</li>
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<li>漂浮式示范项目LCOE与电价</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Section 2: Event Timeline & Market Outlook -->
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<section x-data="{}" class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-5 gap-8">
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<div class="lg:col-span-2">
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<h2 class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold mb-6 glow-text">概念驱动轴线</h2>
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<div class="timeline space-y-8">
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-sky-400">长期规划与顶层设计</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">“十四五” & “十五五”</p>
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<p class="mt-2 text-sm">国家规划“十四五”新增海风约57GW；广东等省已启动“十五五”规划（广东拟申报35GW），奠定长期需求基石。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-sky-400">2025-01-02：用海新政</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">自然资源部</p>
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<p class="mt-2 text-sm">取消“双30”，改为“单30”，明确推动海上风电向深远海布局，鼓励“风电+”立体开发。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-sky-400">2024年Q2起：行业拐点</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">招标与开工加速</p>
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<p class="mt-2 text-sm">招标量同比大增66%（截至7月末），江苏2.05GW项目破冰，上海、广西、辽宁合计超50GW规划获批，市场景气反转。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-sky-400">2024年底：关键催化</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">江苏项目实质性启动</p>
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<p class="mt-2 text-sm">江苏国信大丰、三峡大丰等项目解决军方审批，预计年底开工，成为验证行业拐点的“试金石”。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-sky-400">2025-08-26：订单引爆</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">三省竞配落地</p>
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<p class="mt-2 text-sm">苏、粤等省明确2025-27年新增18GW装机，为相关公司带来确定性订单，引爆市场情绪。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="lg:col-span-3">
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<h2 class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold mb-6 glow-text">装机容量预测</h2>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-4 h-[500px]" id="forecast-chart"></div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Section 3: Deep Dive Analysis -->
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<section>
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<h2 class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold mb-6 glow-text">深度逻辑剖析</h2>
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<div x-data="{ tab: 'drivers' }" class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<div class="tabs tabs-boxed bg-black/30 mb-6">
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<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'drivers' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'drivers'">核心驱动力</a>
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<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'gap' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'gap'">预期差分析</a>
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<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'path' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'path'">发展路径</a>
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<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'risks' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'risks'">潜在风险</a>
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</div>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div x-show="tab === 'drivers'">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-sky-400 mb-2">1. 政策确定性与规模化</h3>
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<p class="text-sm leading-relaxed">国家“十四五”、“十五五”与沿海各省（粤、苏、浙、鲁等）庞大的百吉瓦级装机规划提供了长期稳定的需求基本盘。近期自然资源部用海新政，通过优化审批、明确深远海标准，为项目从“规划”到“落地”扫清了关键障碍。</p>
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-sky-400 mt-4 mb-2">2. 平价上网后的内生经济性</h3>
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<p class="text-sm leading-relaxed">研报数据显示，海风LCOE已从2019年的0.77元/kWh降至2023年的<strong class="text-white">0.50元/kWh</strong>，预计2025年再降10%，已具备平价上网能力。这标志着行业摆脱补贴依赖，进入健康发展阶段。山东半岛南150万千瓦平价项目的并网即是力证。</p>
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-sky-400 mt-4 mb-2">3. 技术迭代催生新蓝海——深远海化</h3>
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<p class="text-sm leading-relaxed">这是本轮周期的核心增量逻辑。中国深远海风能资源可开发量超<strong class="text-white">2000GW</strong>。随着风机大型化（已出现26MW机组）与输电技术向柔性直流发展，向资源更优的深远海进军成为必然。这不仅扩大了市场空间，也重塑了产业链价值，高壁垒环节（海缆、漂浮式基础）将显著受益。</p>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'gap'">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-rose-400 mb-2">1. 进度预期差：规划宏大 vs 落地掣肘</h3>
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<p class="text-sm leading-relaxed"><strong>市场共识：</strong>基于“十四五”收官压力，2025年将迎来“抢装潮”。<br>
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<strong>潜在预期差：</strong>路演专家指出，2024年实际吊装量预计仅<strong class="text-white">5-6GW</strong>，远低于市场预期的10GW。背后原因是<strong class="text-rose-300">“军方协调”、“航道审批”</strong>等非技术性因素。例如江苏、浙江、福建均有项目因此受阻。市场可能高估了短期建设速度。</p>
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-rose-400 mt-4 mb-2">2. 盈利预期差：全面修复 vs 结构性挑战</h3>
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<p class="text-sm leading-relaxed"><strong>市场共识：</strong>行业复苏，量价齐升，产业链盈利将全面修复。<br>
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<strong>潜在预期差：</strong>路演提到，深远海漂浮式风电LCOE仍高达0.5元/kWh，海南万宁项目中标电价0.45元/kWh，对应收益率仅约<strong class="text-white">5%</strong>。同时，国际巨头壳牌、BP因成本高涨而收缩业务。这表明迈向深远海的过程中，部分项目的经济性仍具挑战，市场可能低估了商业化初期的盈利压力。</p>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'path'">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-teal-400 mb-2">第一阶段 (2024-2026年)：近海存量释放 & 深海初步探索</h3>
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<p class="text-sm leading-relaxed">核心任务是完成“十四五”剩余项目，以<strong class="text-white">固定式桩基</strong>为主。江苏、广东、山东为建设主力。少数深远海示范项目（如海南漂浮式）开始建设，进行技术和成本验证。</p>
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-teal-400 mt-4 mb-2">第二阶段 (2027-2030年)：“十五五”深远海规模化发展</h3>
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<p class="text-sm leading-relaxed">随着<strong class="text-white">漂浮式技术成本下降</strong>和<strong class="text-white">柔性直流输电</strong>成熟，深远海项目将从示范走向规模化。上海、浙江、福建、广东的深远海规划集中落地，行业装机中枢有望提升至<strong class="text-white">20-25GW/年</strong>。</p>
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-teal-400 mt-4 mb-2">第三阶段 (2030年以后)：多元化融合 & 全球化扩张</h3>
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<p class="text-sm leading-relaxed">“风电+制氢”、“+海洋牧场”、“+储能”等综合利用模式成为主流。具备技术和成本优势的中国产业链（塔桩、海缆、大型铸件）将大规模出海，获取欧洲、东南亚市场份额。</p>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'risks'">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-amber-400 mb-2">1. 政策与审批风险 (当前核心风险)</h3>
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<p class="text-sm leading-relaxed"><strong>军方协调、航道审批、海域论证</strong>等非市场化因素是项目推进的关键瓶颈，为项目进度带来极大不确定性。例如：福建1.8GW项目因台海局势停滞，江苏、浙江、山东均有项目因此受阻。</p>
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-amber-400 mt-4 mb-2">2. 商业化与供应链风险</h3>
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<p class="text-sm leading-relaxed">深远海项目初始收益率可能偏低，且海外巨头已因成本高企放缓投资。同时，路演指出<strong class="text-white">海缆在2024年存在约30%的交付缺口</strong>，海工船机也不足，可能成为限制行业整体装机速度的木桶短板。</p>
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-amber-400 mt-4 mb-2">3. 技术风险</h3>
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<p class="text-sm leading-relaxed"><strong class="text-white">漂浮式基础商业化进程</strong>是影响“十五五”深远海大规模开发可行性的关键。若其成本下降速度不及预期，将制约行业长期发展空间。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Section 4: Industry Chain & Key Players -->
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<section>
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<h2 class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold mb-6 glow-text">产业链与核心公司</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<!-- 海工基础 -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-sky-300 mb-3">海工基础环节对比</h3>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-white">海力风电</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">逻辑最纯粹的<strong class="text-white">国内海上基础龙头</strong>，江苏市场优势显著（市占率超60%）。核心竞争力在于“属地化产能+码头资源”。业绩与国内项目开工节奏强绑定，弹性大但风险相对集中。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="divider before:bg-white/10 after:bg-white/10"></div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-white">大金重工 / 天顺风能</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300"><strong class="text-white">“国内+海外”双轮驱动</strong>典范。欧洲单桩市场2025-27年供给偏紧，为其提供绝佳出海口。优势在于能对冲国内市场波动风险，并享受海外市场更高盈利。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 海缆 -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-sky-300 mb-3">海缆环节对比</h3>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-white">东方电缆</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">技术壁垒最高的<strong class="text-white">深远海核心标的</strong>。在500kV交/直流海缆领域技术领先，已斩获海外高压直流项目。逻辑最硬，直接受益于离岸距离和电压等级提升。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="divider before:bg-white/10 after:bg-white/10"></div>
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<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-white">中天科技 / 亨通光电</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">在江苏市场根基深厚，<strong class="text-white">直接受益于江苏项目重启</strong>，确定性更强，与短期项目落地高度相关。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Section 5: Rise analysis stocks -->
|
||
<section>
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold mb-6 glow-text">近期异动个股解析</h2>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 xl:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
|
||
<!-- Dynamic rendering of rise analysis stocks -->
|
||
<template x-for="stock in riseAnalysisStocks" :key="stock.stock_code">
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 flex flex-col">
|
||
<div class="flex justify-between items-start mb-3">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-sky-300" x-text="stock.stock"></h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400" x-text="stock.stock_code + ' | ' + stock.trade_date"></p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="badge badge-lg" :class="stock.rise_rate > 0 ? 'badge-error text-white' : 'badge-success text-white'" x-text="stock.rise_rate + '%'"></div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="text-sm text-gray-300 flex-grow">
|
||
<p class="font-semibold text-white mb-2">核心结论:</p>
|
||
<p class="leading-relaxed whitespace-pre-line" x-html="stock.reason.split('驱动概念:')[0].replace('核心结论:', '').trim()"></p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</template>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Section 6: Key Stocks Table -->
|
||
<section>
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold mb-6 glow-text">海上风电产业链核心标的</h2>
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-4 md:p-6 overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra-zebra bg-transparent w-full">
|
||
<thead class="text-base text-sky-300">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th class="bg-transparent">产业链环节</th>
|
||
<th class="bg-transparent">股票名称</th>
|
||
<th class="bg-transparent">股票代码</th>
|
||
<th class="bg-transparent">核心逻辑</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody class="text-gray-200">
|
||
<!-- Data will be populated by Alpine.js -->
|
||
<template x-for="group in stockGroups" :key="group.name">
|
||
<template x-for="(stock, index) in group.stocks" :key="stock.stock_code">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td x-text="index === 0 ? group.name : ''" class="bg-transparent font-semibold align-top" :rowspan="group.stocks.length" x-show="index === 0"></td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent" x-text="stock.stock"></td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent">
|
||
<a :href="'https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=' + stock.stock_code" target="_blank" class="hover:text-sky-400 transition" x-text="stock.stock_code" x-if="stock.stock_code"></a>
|
||
<span x-if="!stock.stock_code" class="text-gray-500">--</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="bg-transparent text-sm" x-text="stock.other_tags"></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</template>
|
||
</template>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Footer -->
|
||
<footer class="text-center mt-20 pt-8 border-t border-white/10">
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-500">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 荣誉呈现</p>
|
||
<p class="text-xs text-gray-600 mt-2">免责声明：本报告由AI基于公开数据合成，不构成任何投资建议，投资需谨慎。</p>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
document.addEventListener('alpine:init', () => {
|
||
const stockDataRaw = [
|
||
{ "stock": "飞沃科技", "reason": "叶片", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "301232" },
|
||
{ "stock": "中材科技", "reason": "叶片", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "002080" },
|
||
{ "stock": "赛伍技术", "reason": "叶片", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "603212" },
|
||
{ "stock": "麦加芯彩", "reason": "叶片", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "603062" },
|
||
{ "stock": "中国巨石", "reason": "叶片", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "600176" },
|
||
{ "stock": "康达新材", "reason": "叶片", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "002669" },
|
||
{ "stock": "时代新材", "reason": "叶片", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "600458" },
|
||
{ "stock": "新强联", "reason": "轴承", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "300850" },
|
||
{ "stock": "金雷股份", "reason": "轴承", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "300443" },
|
||
{ "stock": "崇德科技", "reason": "轴承", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "301548" },
|
||
{ "stock": "通裕重工", "reason": "轴承", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "300185" },
|
||
{ "stock": "中环海陆", "reason": "轴承", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "301040" },
|
||
{ "stock": "国机精工", "reason": "轴承", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "002046" },
|
||
{ "stock": "恒润股份", "reason": "轴承", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "603985" },
|
||
{ "stock": "大连重工", "reason": "齿轮箱", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "002204" },
|
||
{ "stock": "川润股份", "reason": "齿轮箱", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "002272" },
|
||
{ "stock": "宏德股份", "reason": "齿轮箱", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "301163" },
|
||
{ "stock": "太原重工", "reason": "齿轮箱", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": null },
|
||
{ "stock": "禾望电气", "reason": "变流器", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "603063" },
|
||
{ "stock": "海得控制", "reason": "变流器", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "002184" },
|
||
{ "stock": "阳光电源", "reason": "变流器", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "300274" },
|
||
{ "stock": "易事特", "reason": "变流器", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": null },
|
||
{ "stock": "金风科技", "reason": "整机", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "002202" },
|
||
{ "stock": "明阳智能", "reason": "整机", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "601615" },
|
||
{ "stock": "上海电气", "reason": "整机", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "601727" },
|
||
{ "stock": "运达股份", "reason": "整机", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "300772" },
|
||
{ "stock": "东方电气", "reason": "整机", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "600875" },
|
||
{ "stock": "太原重工", "reason": "整机", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": null },
|
||
{ "stock": "三一重能", "reason": "整机", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "688349" },
|
||
{ "stock": "湘电股份", "reason": "整机", "其他标签": "风电主机", "stock_code": "600416" },
|
||
{ "stock": "天顺风能", "reason": "塔筒/风机基础", "其他标签": "塔筒/风机基础", "stock_code": "002531" },
|
||
{ "stock": "大金重工", "reason": "塔筒/风机基础", "其他标签": "塔筒/风机基础", "stock_code": "002487" },
|
||
{ "stock": "海力风电", "reason": "塔筒/风机基础", "其他标签": "塔筒/风机基础", "stock_code": "301155" },
|
||
{ "stock": "泰胜风能", "reason": "塔筒/风机基础", "其他标签": "塔筒/风机基础", "stock_code": "300129" },
|
||
{ "stock": "天能重工", "reason": "塔筒/风机基础", "其他标签": "塔筒/风机基础", "stock_code": "300569" },
|
||
{ "stock": "泰胜风能", "reason": "升压站/换流站", "其他标签": "升压站/换流站", "stock_code": "300129" },
|
||
{ "stock": "华电重工", "reason": "升压站/换流站", "其他标签": "升压站/换流站", "stock_code": null },
|
||
{ "stock": "天顺风能", "reason": "升压站/换流站", "其他标签": "升压站/换流站", "stock_code": "002531" },
|
||
{ "stock": "远东股份", "reason": "海缆", "其他标签": "海缆", "stock_code": "600869" },
|
||
{ "stock": "中天科技", "reason": "海缆", "其他标签": "海缆", "stock_code": "600522" },
|
||
{ "stock": "东方电缆", "reason": "海缆", "其他标签": "海缆", "stock_code": "603606" },
|
||
{ "stock": "起帆电缆", "reason": "海缆", "其他标签": "海缆", "stock_code": "605222" },
|
||
{ "stock": "大金重工", "reason": "海缆", "其他标签": "海缆", "stock_code": "002487" },
|
||
{ "stock": "海油工程", "reason": "海风施工/装备/运维", "其他标签": "海风施工/装备/运维", "stock_code": "600583" },
|
||
{ "stock": "永达股份", "reason": "海风施工/装备/运维", "其他标签": "海风施工/装备/运维", "stock_code": "001239" },
|
||
{ "stock": "中集集团", "reason": "海风施工/装备/运维", "其他标签": "海风施工/装备/运维", "stock_code": "000039" },
|
||
{ "stock": "祥明智能", "reason": "海风施工/装备/运维", "其他标签": "海风施工/装备/运维 (风机)", "stock_code": "301226" },
|
||
{ "stock": "福事特", "reason": "海风施工/装备/运维", "其他标签": "海风施工/装备/运维 (液压)", "stock_code": "301446" }
|
||
];
|
||
|
||
const riseAnalysisData = [
|
||
{ "stock": "电气风电", "stock_code": "688660", "rise_rate": 20.0, "trade_date": "2025-08-26", "reason": "核心结论: 三省海上风电竞配方案落地叠加行业盈利拐点确认，机构资金抢筹电气风电。<br><br>驱动概念: 海上风电+江苏竞配+广东竞配<br><br>个股异动解析:<br>1. 消息面：<br>（1）海上风电：三省竞配方案落地，2025-2027年新增18GW装机，对应700-800亿元主机订单。 <br>- 公司2024年末在手订单300-400亿元，锁定未来2-3年产能； <br>- 公司位于长三角，具备海风资源获取及供应链优势。 <br>（2）江苏竞配：江苏2025-2027年方案明确8GW规模。 <br>- 公司上海电气集团背景，江苏项目中标概率高。 <br>（3）广东竞配：广东同期规划6GW。 <br>- 公司已完成广东海上风电示范项目供货，具备业绩背书。 <br><br>2. 基本面： <br>- 2025H1原材料铜、钢、稀土价格同比-18%、-12%、-35%，成本端大幅改善； <br>- 2024年亏损，论坛传“中报大幅减亏或扭亏”，盈利拐点预期强烈； <br>- 融资余额8.36亿元创阶段新高，杠杆资金提前布局； <br>- 机构席位8月26日净买入1.2亿元，为半年来首次大买。", "news_title": "", "score": 146.41066, "source": "search_rise" },
|
||
{ "stock": "华电科工", "stock_code": "601226", "rise_rate": 9.97, "trade_date": "2025-11-10", "reason": "核心结论: <br>“34亿元海上风电EPC合同锁定2025-40%收入增量+国资委并购新规打开华电集团资产注入期权”双重催化，机构集中补仓致涨停。<br><br>驱动概念: <br>风电+央企并购重组+氢能源<br><br>个股异动解析: <br>1. 消息面 <br>（1）风电：六氟磷酸锂2个月涨120%、储能排产环比再升10%，海风产业链高景气。-11-07公告：公司作为牵头人签辽宁丹东东港1GW海风EPC合同，金额34.15亿元，占2024营收45.3%，2027-10全容量并网，2025-2026确认收入。 <br>（2）央企并购重组：11-09国资委专项行动方案明确“≤300亿元央企控股公司优先资产注入”，公司市值180亿元，控股股东华电集团体内30GW新能源及氢能装备资产注入可行性陡升。 <br>（3）氢能源：国家能源局11-07《煤炭与新能源融合发展意见》点名矿区“加氢站、风光氢储一体化”，公司具备制氢、输氢EPC业绩，政策订单双落地。 <br><br>2. 基本面 <br>- 2024年营收75.7亿元，归母净利2.1亿元；新合同可增厚毛利约4亿元，净利弹性+40%以上。 <br>- 国内唯一同时覆盖核电常规岛、海上风电、氢能制储用、超超临界火电的央企工程平台，集团资产注入后2026年盈利中枢可看6-7亿元。 <br><br>总结: <br>34亿元海风订单兑现业绩+央企并购新规赋予资产注入期权，资金由“题材博弈”升级为“业绩+重估”共振。", "news_title": "", "score": 141.35043, "source": "search_rise" },
|
||
{ "stock": "吉鑫科技", "stock_code": "601218", "rise_rate": 9.89, "trade_date": "2025-06-30", "reason": "核心结论: 6-27晚公告3.2亿元欧洲海上风电铸件长单叠加6-28能源局核准25GW海上风电及欧盟碳关税豁免预期，周末发酵后资金周一抢筹封板。 <br>驱动概念: 海上风电铸件+欧盟碳关税豁免+能源局25GW海风核准 <br><br>个股异动解析: <br>1. 消息面： <br>（1）海上风电铸件：第三批25GW海上风电核准，江苏/山东/广东占14GW，文件首提“鼓励国产大型铸件”。 <br>- 6-27公告：全资子公司与欧洲整机龙头签3.2亿元风电铸件长单，供货2025Q4-2027Q2，占2024年营收28%。 <br>- 公司8MW+海上机型铸件已批量出口欧洲，2024年出口占比42%。 <br><br>（2）欧盟碳关税豁免：欧盟拟对风电铸件等绿色零部件豁免碳关税，预计2025Q3细则落地。 <br>- 若豁免确认，吨净利可增400-500元，2026年净利增厚0.9-1.1亿元。 <br><br>（3）能源局政策：6-28通知要求2026年底前并网，催化抢装需求。 <br><br>2. 基本面： <br>- 订单：3.2亿元长单锁定2025-2027年28%收入，毛利率较陆上高5-6pct。 <br>- 盈利弹性：碳关税豁免后出口吨净利有望由800元升至1200-1300元。 <br>- 行业景气：2025-2027全球海上风电铸件CAGR 25%。 <br><br>总结: 欧洲长单+国内25GW海风核准+欧盟碳关税豁免三重催化，订单与盈利弹性共振，资金周一抢筹封板。", "news_title": "", "score": 132.452, "source": "search_rise" }
|
||
];
|
||
|
||
const grouped = stockDataRaw.reduce((acc, stock) => {
|
||
const reason = stock.reason || '其他';
|
||
// Adjust reason to be more descriptive
|
||
let cleanReason = reason.includes('运维') ? '施工/装备/运维' : reason;
|
||
if (!acc[cleanReason]) {
|
||
acc[cleanReason] = [];
|
||
}
|
||
acc[cleanReason].push({
|
||
stock: stock.stock,
|
||
stock_code: stock.stock_code,
|
||
other_tags: stock['其他标签']
|
||
});
|
||
return acc;
|
||
}, {});
|
||
|
||
// Define a custom order
|
||
const order = ['整机', '叶片', '轴承', '齿轮箱', '变流器', '塔筒/风机基础', '海缆', '升压站/换流站', '施工/装备/运维'];
|
||
|
||
const stockGroups = order.map(name => ({
|
||
name: name,
|
||
stocks: grouped[name] || []
|
||
})).filter(group => group.stocks.length > 0);
|
||
|
||
|
||
Alpine.data('pageData', () => ({
|
||
stockGroups: stockGroups,
|
||
riseAnalysisStocks: riseAnalysisData,
|
||
}));
|
||
});
|
||
|
||
// ECharts Initialization
|
||
var chartDom = document.getElementById('forecast-chart');
|
||
var myChart = echarts.init(chartDom);
|
||
var option;
|
||
|
||
option = {
|
||
backgroundColor: 'transparent',
|
||
title: {
|
||
text: '全球及中国海上风电新增装机容量预测 (GW)',
|
||
left: 'center',
|
||
textStyle: {
|
||
color: '#e5e7eb',
|
||
fontWeight: 'normal',
|
||
fontSize: 16
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
tooltip: {
|
||
trigger: 'axis',
|
||
backgroundColor: 'rgba(17, 24, 39, 0.8)',
|
||
borderColor: 'rgba(56, 189, 248, 0.5)',
|
||
textStyle: {
|
||
color: '#e5e7eb'
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
legend: {
|
||
data: ['全球新增装机', '中国新增装机'],
|
||
bottom: 10,
|
||
textStyle: {
|
||
color: '#9ca3af'
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
grid: {
|
||
left: '3%',
|
||
right: '4%',
|
||
bottom: '15%',
|
||
containLabel: true
|
||
},
|
||
xAxis: {
|
||
type: 'category',
|
||
boundaryGap: false,
|
||
data: ['2023', '2024', '2025', '2026', '2027', '2028', '2029', '2030', '2031', '2032', '2033'],
|
||
axisLine: {
|
||
lineStyle: { color: '#4b5563' }
|
||
},
|
||
axisLabel: {
|
||
color: '#9ca3af'
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
yAxis: {
|
||
type: 'value',
|
||
axisLabel: {
|
||
formatter: '{value} GW',
|
||
color: '#9ca3af'
|
||
},
|
||
splitLine: {
|
||
lineStyle: {
|
||
color: 'rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1)'
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
series: [
|
||
{
|
||
name: '全球新增装机',
|
||
type: 'line',
|
||
smooth: true,
|
||
data: [10.9, 14.5, 19.2, 25.4, 31.8, 38.0, 44.5, 51.2, 57.8, 62.5, 66.2],
|
||
itemStyle: { color: '#60a5fa' },
|
||
lineStyle: {
|
||
width: 3,
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||
shadowColor: 'rgba(96, 165, 250, 0.5)',
|
||
shadowBlur: 10
|
||
},
|
||
areaStyle: {
|
||
color: new echarts.graphic.LinearGradient(0, 0, 0, 1, [{
|
||
offset: 0,
|
||
color: 'rgba(96, 165, 250, 0.3)'
|
||
}, {
|
||
offset: 1,
|
||
color: 'rgba(96, 165, 250, 0)'
|
||
}])
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
name: '中国新增装机',
|
||
type: 'line',
|
||
smooth: true,
|
||
data: [6.3, 8.0, 12.5, 14.0, 15.5, 16.5, 17.5, 18.0, 18.8, 19.5, 20.0],
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||
itemStyle: { color: '#34d399' },
|
||
lineStyle: {
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||
width: 3,
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||
shadowColor: 'rgba(52, 211, 153, 0.5)',
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||
shadowBlur: 10
|
||
},
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||
areaStyle: {
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||
color: new echarts.graphic.LinearGradient(0, 0, 0, 1, [{
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||
offset: 0,
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||
color: 'rgba(52, 211, 153, 0.3)'
|
||
}, {
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||
offset: 1,
|
||
color: 'rgba(52, 211, 153, 0)'
|
||
}])
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
]
|
||
};
|
||
|
||
option && myChart.setOption(option);
|
||
window.addEventListener('resize', myChart.resize);
|
||
</script>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html> |