536 lines
29 KiB
HTML
536 lines
29 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>深度行研 | 正丙醇 (n-Propanol)</title>
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body {
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font-family: 'Noto Sans SC', sans-serif;
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background-color: #0c0a18;
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background-image:
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radial-gradient(ellipse at 30% 20%, rgba(118, 0, 255, 0.15) 0%, transparent 50%),
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<body class="min-h-screen p-4 sm:p-6 lg:p-8">
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<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center p-6 mb-8 glass-card rounded-3xl glow-edge">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-5xl font-bold text-glow-cyan tracking-wider">深度行研 | 正丙醇 (n-Propanol)</h1>
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<p class="mt-4 text-neutral-400">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现</p>
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<p class="text-xs text-warning mt-2">本报告为AI合成数据，不构成任何投资建议，投资需谨慎。</p>
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</header>
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<!-- Bento Grid Layout -->
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<div class="bento-grid mb-8">
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<!-- Core Viewpoint -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 grid-span-5 glow-edge prose max-w-none">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-glow-cyan">核心观点摘要</h3>
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<p>正丙醇概念正处在由 <strong>“供需失衡”</strong> 引爆的基本面驱动行情初期，并叠加了新兴应用领域的投机性预期。</p>
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<p>其核心驱动力源于 <strong>供给端的寡头垄断格局与近两年产能刚性</strong>，与 <strong>需求端传统下游（醋酸正丙酯）的确定性扩产</strong> 形成了明确的供需剪刀差。</p>
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<p>而新兴的 <strong>电池材料应用叙事</strong>，则为其提供了远期想象空间和当前市场情绪的放大器，同时也构成了未来最大的预期差和不确定性来源。</p>
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</div>
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<!-- Price Chart -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 grid-span-7 glow-edge flex flex-col">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-2 text-glow-cyan">价格走势：急剧拉升</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-neutral-400 mb-4">2024年下半年价格从底部开始持续跳涨</p>
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<div id="priceChart" class="flex-grow min-h-[300px]"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Supply/Demand -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 grid-span-7 glow-edge">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-glow-cyan">供需格局：剪刀差显现</h3>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-4 text-center">
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<div class="p-4 bg-base-100/30 rounded-2xl">
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<div class="text-sm text-neutral-400">供给端</div>
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<div class="text-2xl font-bold text-error">高度刚性</div>
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<div class="text-xs mt-1">国内总产能约 <span class="font-semibold text-white">27-32万吨</span>，CR4超90%，2025年中前无新增产能。</div>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-base-100/30 rounded-2xl">
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<div class="text-sm text-neutral-400">需求端</div>
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<div class="text-2xl font-bold text-success">确定性增长</div>
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<div class="text-xs mt-1">2024-25年下游醋酸正丙酯扩产，对应新增需求超 <span class="font-semibold text-white">22万吨</span>。</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Downstream Applications -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 grid-span-5 glow-edge flex flex-col">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-glow-cyan">下游应用结构</h3>
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<div id="demandChart" class="flex-grow min-h-[150px]"></div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Detailed Analysis -->
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<main class="space-y-8">
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<!-- Concept Event & Timeline -->
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<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 glow-edge">
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<div class="section-header">
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<h2>概念事件与爆发路径</h2>
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</div>
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<ul class="timeline timeline-snap-icon max-md:timeline-compact timeline-vertical">
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<li>
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<div class="timeline-middle">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.001-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-start md:text-end mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic text-neutral-400">2023 H2 - 2024 Q3</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black text-primary">背景与酝酿期</div>
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供给端自2021年后无新增产能，形成寡头格局。对美反倾销税限制海外货源。下游醋酸正丙酯开始规划扩张。价格从约6,000元/吨底部缓慢回升至9,000元/吨。
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</div>
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<hr/>
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</li>
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<li>
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<hr/>
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<div class="timeline-middle">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-accent"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.001-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-end mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic text-neutral-400">2024 Q4</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black text-accent">催化与爆发期</div>
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10月，下游新增产能投产，需求拉动显现，库存快速下降。11月初，价格开始跳涨。11月14日，鲁西化工上游装置计划停车，引爆市场。11月15日，龙头三维化学报价上调至13,000元/吨，价格进入飙升通道。
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</div>
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<hr/>
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</li>
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<li>
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<hr/>
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<div class="timeline-middle">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-secondary"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.001-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-start md:text-end mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic text-neutral-400">2024年11月中下旬</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black text-secondary">市场情绪顶峰</div>
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媒体密集报道，研报集中发布。“固态电池”、“电解液溶剂”等新兴需求故事发酵，龙头股三维化学连续涨停，概念热度空前。
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</div>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</section>
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<!-- Core Logic & Market Perception -->
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<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 glow-edge prose max-w-none">
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<div class="section-header">
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<h2>核心逻辑与市场认知</h2>
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</div>
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<blockquote>支撑正丙醇概念的根本逻辑是 <strong>“供给刚性”</strong> 与 <strong>“需求增长”</strong> 的确定性共振。</blockquote>
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<h4>1. 供给端：高度集中且无弹性</h4>
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<p>国内产能高度集中于三维化学（10万吨）、鲁西化工（8万吨）、巨化股份（5万吨）、南京荣欣（4万吨）四家企业，CR4超过90%，形成稳定的寡头格局。关键在于，自2021年以来无新增产能，且明确到2025年上半年无新增产能落地，供给曲线在短期内完全刚性。</p>
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<h4>2. 需求端：传统下游的“明牌”增长</h4>
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<p>占比65%的下游醋酸正丙酯正处于高速扩张期。2024年新增产能15万吨，对应正丙醇需求约9.27万吨；2025年计划新增产能22万吨，对应正丙醇需求约13.6万吨。这一需求增量是可见且可测算的，是支撑本轮行情的基石。</p>
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<h4>3. 库存与政策助攻</h4>
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<p>行业库存由高位快速去化至低位（部分信息源称“库存为0”），为价格上涨提供了“奇点”。同时，对美反倾销政策保障了国内市场格局不受外部低价冲击。</p>
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<h4>4. 预期差分析（关键点）</h4>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>高估的“电池故事”</strong>：市场部分投资者可能将“电池电解液”视为重要驱动力，并进行了乐观的需求测算。然而，路演信息明确指出该应用“用量未明确”，存在“过度推断”风险。这是当前最大的认知泡沫，一旦证伪将对估值造成冲击。</li>
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<li><strong>低估的“成本传导能力”</strong>：市场可能担忧高价抑制需求。但路演信息显示，下游对价格敏感度低，涨价传导顺畅。若传导能力超预期，高价位和高盈利将维持更久。</li>
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<li><strong>忽视的“转产”变量”</strong>：部分醋酸正丙酯产能由醋酸乙酯转产而来，表明需求端增长具有一定灵活性，也反映了其相对乙酯的经济性优势。</li>
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</ul>
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</section>
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<!-- Catalysts & Future Path -->
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<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 glow-edge prose max-w-none">
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<div class="section-header">
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<h2>关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h2>
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</div>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div>
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-accent">近期催化剂 (未来3-6个月)</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 mt-2">
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<li><strong>价格与库存数据：</strong> 第三方机构发布的周度/月度数据是验证供需最直接的指标。</li>
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<li><strong>龙头企业报价：</strong> 三维化学和鲁西化工的公开报价是市场情绪风向标。</li>
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<li><strong>下游装置动态：</strong> 2025年珠海谦信和乌江化工醋酸正丙酯项目的建设进度。</li>
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<li><strong>鲁西二期项目进展：</strong> 鲁西8万吨新增产能的官方公告是预判景气拐点的最重要事件。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-secondary">长期发展路径</h4>
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<ol class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-2 mt-2">
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<li><strong>阶段一 (当前 - 2025年中)：</strong> <strong>基本面驱动期</strong>。由供需缺口主导，价格维持高位，企业盈利释放。</li>
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<li><strong>阶段二 (2025年中 - 2026年)：</strong> <strong>格局重塑期</strong>。新产能逐步投放，供需缺口弥合，价格从高位回落。</li>
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<li><strong>阶段三 (长期)：</strong> <strong>新需求验证期</strong>。电池等新兴应用能否从“故事”走向“现实”，将决定能否开启第二成长曲线。</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Industry Chain & Company Analysis -->
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<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 glow-edge prose max-w-none">
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<div class="section-header">
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<h2>产业链与核心公司剖析</h2>
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</div>
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<h4>产业链图谱</h4>
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<div class="text-center p-4">
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<p><span class="badge badge-info">上游</span> 乙烯、合成气、氢气</p>
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<p class="text-2xl font-mono my-2">↓</p>
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<p><span class="badge badge-primary">中游</span> <strong>正丙醇生产商 (核心环节)</strong></p>
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<p class="text-2xl font-mono my-2">↓</p>
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<div class="flex justify-center items-start gap-4">
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<div><span class="badge badge-success">下游 (传统)</span><br>醋酸正丙酯、医药/农药中间体、溶剂</div>
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<div><span class="badge badge-warning">下游 (新兴)</span><br>锂电池电解液、固态电池溶剂、电子清洗剂</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<h4>核心玩家对比</h4>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-4 mt-6">
|
||
<div class="border border-primary/50 rounded-2xl p-4">
|
||
<h5 class="font-bold text-primary">领导者 & 纯度最高：三维化学 (002469)</h5>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">国内产能最大(10万吨)，市占率约37%。业务聚焦，盈利弹性极高，价格每涨1000元/吨，增厚年化利润约8500万元。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="border border-accent/50 rounded-2xl p-4">
|
||
<h5 class="font-bold text-accent">关键变量 & 追赶者：鲁西化工 (000830)</h5>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">产能8万吨，位居第二。既是本轮价格暴涨的“催化剂”（装置停车），也是未来景气周期的“终结者”（计划新增8万吨产能）。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="border border-secondary/50 rounded-2xl p-4">
|
||
<h5 class="font-bold text-secondary">稳健参与者：巨化股份 (600160)</h5>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">产能5万吨，作为氟化工龙头，正丙醇业务是其多元化布局的一部分，能分享行业红利，但业绩弹性不如三维化学。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Risks -->
|
||
<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 glow-edge prose max-w-none">
|
||
<div class="section-header">
|
||
<h2>潜在风险与挑战</h2>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="alert alert-warning bg-warning/10 border-warning/50 shadow-lg">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="stroke-current shrink-0 h-6 w-6" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 9v2m0 4h.01m-6.938 4h13.856c1.54 0 2.502-1.667 1.732-3L13.732 4c-.77-1.333-2.694-1.333-3.464 0L3.34 16c-.77 1.333.192 3 1.732 3z" /></svg>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="font-bold">核心风险：新兴需求证伪 & 产能超预期释放</h3>
|
||
<div class="text-xs">
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>需求不及预期：</strong> 下游扩产放缓，或“电池故事”被证伪是最大风险点。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>产能超预期释放：</strong> 鲁西化工8万吨新产能若提前投产，将彻底改变供需格局。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>成本压力传导失败：</strong> 价格过高可能抑制下游需求或促使寻找替代品。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>进口政策变动：</strong> 对美反倾销税到期后若不延续，可能引入低价货源冲击。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Table -->
|
||
<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 glow-edge">
|
||
<div class="section-header">
|
||
<h2>相关概念股梳理</h2>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr class="text-white">
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>关联原因</th>
|
||
<th>流通市值</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>三维化学</strong></td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002469" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-primary">002469</a></td>
|
||
<td>化工产品受益于丙醇涨价。收购的诺奥是国内最大的正丙醇生产企业，利润弹性巨大。</td>
|
||
<td>25.4亿</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>鲁西化工</strong></td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000830" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-primary">000830</a></td>
|
||
<td>公司现有丙醇产能8万吨，近期生产正常。乙烯下游一体化二期项目（8万吨丙醇）建设中。</td>
|
||
<td>112亿</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>巨化股份</strong></td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600160" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-primary">600160</a></td>
|
||
<td>自筹10万吨/年正丙醇技改扩能项目，现有产能约5-10万吨。</td>
|
||
<td>272亿</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>综艺股份</strong></td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600770" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-primary">600770</a></td>
|
||
<td>参股12.28%正丙醇企业南京荣欣化工，年产能8万吨（研报数据为4万吨）。</td>
|
||
<td>20亿</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>辉丰股份</strong></td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002496" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-primary">002496</a></td>
|
||
<td>全资子公司江苏辉丰石化有限公司二期项目投入运营，主要作业物品包含正丙醇。</td>
|
||
<td>24亿</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>恒兴新材</strong></td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603276" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-primary">603276</a></td>
|
||
<td>公司生产所需的主要原材料包括正丙醇等。</td>
|
||
<td>9.4亿</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>东华能源</strong></td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002221" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-primary">002221</a></td>
|
||
<td>公司经营范围包括储存化工产品（正丙醇等）。</td>
|
||
<td>94亿</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
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|
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grid: { left: '3%', right: '4%', bottom: '3%', containLabel: true },
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splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: 'rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1)' } }
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priceChart.setOption(priceOption);
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}
|
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|
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// Demand Chart
|
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var demandChartDom = document.getElementById('demandChart');
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if (demandChartDom) {
|
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var demandChart = echarts.init(demandChartDom);
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var demandOption = {
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{ value: 8, name: '溶剂' },
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demandChart.setOption(demandOption);
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window.addEventListener('resize', function() {
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if (priceChart) priceChart.resize();
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if (demandChart) demandChart.resize();
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|
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|
||
</body>
|
||
</html> |